michelle colley uk climate impacts programme (ukcip) ukcip.uk
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Handling climate risks and uncertainties in decision-making. Climate Impacts Forecasting for Slopes (CLIFFS) Launch meeting 26 October 2005. Michelle Colley UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) www.ukcip.org.uk. What is UKCIP?. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Michelle ColleyUK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP)
www.ukcip.org.uk
Handling climate risks and uncertainties in decision-making
Climate Impacts Forecasting for Slopes (CLIFFS) Launch meeting26 October 2005
What is UKCIP?
• The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) helps organisations assess how they might be affected by climate change, so they can prepare for its impacts
• Set up 1997; funded by Defra
• Programme of the Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University Centre for the Environment
• Stakeholder-led research using:– Common tools & experience– Intelligent access to datasets– Guidance & support for studies & partnerships– Web access to all tools
UKCIP tools
• Range of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, climate models & scenarios – unknown probabilities
• Natural climate variability too• Uncertainty about impacts these climate
changes will have on any system• Uncertainty about whether adaptation
measures will work
• How can decisions be made?
Handling climate risks and uncertainties in decision-making
• Framework describes process for appraisal and management of risks and uncertainties
• Similar to others used for corporate risk management – recognisable to decision-makers
• Bringing ‘climate adaptation’ and ‘risk management’ worlds together
• Enables climate risks to be ‘mainstreamed’ within existing processes
UKCIP/EA decision-making framework
Take a balanced approach to managing climate and non-climate risks
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Define what makes the correct decision
• Need operational criteria for risk assessment and options appraisal
• Take account of defined thresholds and risk attitude (optimistic, precautionary/risk averse, least regret)
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(Based on Hewitt & Burton (1971); Smit et al (2000); Jones (2001))
Give appropriate attention to all sources of uncertainty
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• Information on low probability / high consequence events may be most uncertain – but risk assessment may show these are highest risk
• Identify important climate risk factors – priorities for adaptation
• Uncertainty in non-climate risks and impact models may be of equal or greater significance than uncertainties over present or future climate hazards
• Thresholds-based approach may help focus attention on critical uncertainties
Use adaptive managementto cope with uncertainty
• Put in place incremental adaptation options, rather than undertaking large-scale adaptation in one fell swoop
• Keep open / increase options that allow climate adaptation in future, when need for adaptation and performance of different measures is less uncertain
• E.g. Flood management: It may be sensible to allow for future increases in defence height, while not building to a higher standard immediately
• Circular, iterative framework promotes
adaptive management
45
Try to find no- or low-regretadaptation options
• ‘No regret’: deliver benefits that exceed their costs, whatever the extent of climate change
• E.g. If already experiencing weather-related problems, carry out cost-effective actions to deal with them
• ‘Low regret’: low cost, potentially large benefits under climate change
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• E.g. Building climate change in at the design stage for new drainage system – make pipes wider
Try to find win-win options
• ‘Win-win’ options contribute to climate adaptation and also to other objectives
• E.g. Creation of salt-marsh habitat provides flood protection for coastal areas and also contributes to nature conservation objectives
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Avoid actions that will make it more difficult to cope with climate risks
• Adaptation-constraining decisions make it more difficult for you, or others to manage future climate risks
• E.g. Inappropriate development in a flood risk area
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www.ukcip.org.uk