Microfounded Forecasting Wagner Piazza Gaglianone (BCB/Depep)

João Victor Issler (FGV/EPGE)

Disclaimer

The views expressed in this presentation are those

of the authors and do not necessarily represent

those of the Banco Central do Brasil or its members.

Presentation Outline

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

Introduction

Methodology - Microfoundations

Methodology - Microfoundations

Methodology - Microfoundations

Methodology - Microfoundations

Methodology - Identification

Methodology - Identification

Empirical Exercise - Data

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Empirical Exercise - Data

Empirical Exercise - Results

Empirical Exercise - Results

Empirical Exercise - Results

Empirical Exercise - Results

Conclusions

Conclusions

Thank you