microscopic technical analysis
DESCRIPTION
Basic method to see more detail about your Technical Analysis indicatorTRANSCRIPT
Microscopic Technical Analysis
MM Dandytra, CSA, CFTe
English Is Not My Mother TongueCFTe Lv.2 Exam
Technical AnalysisJohn J. Murphy• “Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets”• The study of market action through the use of chats for the
purpose of forecasting future price trends
Martin J. Pring• “Technical Analysis Explained”• The art to identify a trend reversal at a relatively early stage
and ride on that trend until the weight of the evidence shows or proves that the trend has reversed
John D. Magee and Roberts D. Edwards• “Technical Analysis of Stocks Trends”• The science of recording in graphic form the actual history
of trading and then deducing from that pictured history the probable future trend
Beginning
Who is He ?
One of His Important Book is ...
Familiar with this ?
MOVING AVERAGE CONVERGENCE DIVERGENCE
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence)
MACD Line Difference between EMA12 and EMA26 EMA12 – EMA26
Signal Line (Trigger Line) Smoothing the difference with EMA9 EMA(EMA12 – EMA26), 9 period
MACD Histogram Difference between MACD Line and Signal Line MACD Line – Signal Line
MACD in JCI
MACD Line shows the detail differences betweentwo lines (indicators)
MACD Line shows the “Detail Movement” between EMA12 (Short MA) and EMA 26 (Long MA) Is Short MA getting
farther to Long MA or it is getting closer
When does Short MA is about to Cross Long MA from Below or Above
Signal Line shows the relative direction of MACDLine
Signal Line informs us the direction of MACD Line by looking the line from 9 periods ago (Smoothing) If MACD Line is above
Signal Line, then MACD Line is Rising and vice versa
Signal Line is a “Base” to tell the relative direction of MACD Line
MACD Histogram shows the more detaildifferences between two lines (indicators)
MACD Histogram represents detail differences between MACD Line and Signal Line
MACD Histogram also informs us when MACD Line and Signal is about to Cross to each other When MACD Line is
about to change its Direction
More About MACD
Divergence
Detail Differences of Two Lines
Momentum #1
Momentum #2
The Root of Microscopic Technical Analysis
Slope
Which one has the strongest Uptrend and Downtrend
Uptrend #1 – WIKA Downtrend #1 – ADRO
Uptrend #2 – WSKT Downtrend #2 – BUMI
When MA Rise, Price Momentum is Up and When MA Fall, Price Momentum is Down
How To Determine The Single MA Direction ?
First ... How do you tell a Rise or Fall ? By comparing Current Data with Previous Data If Current Data is Above Previous Data
A Rise If Current Data is Below Previous Data
A Fall Remember principles of : Black and White Candlestick Solid and Hollow Candlestick Short and Long MA Price and MA Chinkou Span of Ichimoku Kinko Hyo
Previous Data Line Current Data versus Yesterday’s Current Data Current Data versus 2 Previous Days Current Data versus 3 Previous Days ... Current Data versus 26 Previous Days (Chikou Span’s
Priciple)
AKRA + MA20 + Yesteday’s MA20
Why not Averaging with Moving Average (or Smoothing) ? Previous Data Line is a different approach Easier to be “Understood” by common people Should be logically accepted As well as Averaging or Smoothing
Still, Smoothing is also acceptable and can be apply the same way with Previous Data Line However, in this presentation, Previous Data Line is the
only method used
Kairi*.
*Bloomberg Version
JCI with SMA200
As a Matter of Fact ...
Re-Check More Detail ...
... Then ...
You Should (Could) See The Weakening of a Trend by Measuring The Distance between Price and Moving Average
Kairi or “a Distance”
X ~X
Microscopic Technical Analysis Methods
Microscopic Technical Analysis MACD Concept MACD Line Signal Line Histogram
Slope Kairi Bollinger Band Complete Method Percentage of Bollinger Band Bandwidth
Overall Microscopic Technical Analysis
The Modified Indicators (My Style) MACD Line Difference MA60 – MA200
Signal Line and Histogram Histogram Difference MA60 – MA200
Slope Slope of MA200
Kairi Distance Close to MA200
Difference MA60 – MA200
Difference MA60 – MA200 Why MA60 and MA200 MA60 : 3 Months Average or Quarterly Average or
Quarter on Quarter (QoQ) MA200 : A Year Average or Yearly Average or Year on
Year (YoY) The Formula Main Line : MA60 – MA200
Copying MACD Line Style (With Signal Line) MACD Signal Line : Smoothing or Averaging The MACD Line with 9 periods of
average (9 Candles – Moving Average) But this time, I prefer to use Previous Data. So the
Lines are : Difference MA60 – MA200 Line The Previous Data Line of “Difference MA60 – MA200”
The Previous Data use 3 periods ago 1 or 2 periods are still make so much Whipsaw
Difference MA60-MA200 (AFL) _SECTION_BEGIN("Difference MA60-MA200"); Difference = (MA(C,60))-(MA(C,200)); Previous = Ref(Difference,-3); Plot(Difference, "MACD 60-200", colorBlack,
styleLine); Plot(Previous, "MACD 60-200 Line", colorBlack,
styleDashed); Plot(0, "Nol", colorBlack, styleDashed|
styleNoLabel); _N(Title = StrFormat("- Difference MA60-MA200 -")); _SECTION_END();
JCI with Difference MA60 – MA200 (and Signal Line)
Histogram Difference MA60 – MA200
Is That Bullish / Golden Crossover ?
See More Detail with Histogram
Histogram Difference between MACD Line and Signal Line Formula : MACD Line – Signal Line
Histogram in the previous slide : Difference between “Difference MA60 – MA200” and
Previous Data Line of “Difference MA60 – MA200”
Histogram MA60-MA200 (AFL) _SECTION_BEGIN("Difference MA60-MA200"); Difference = (MA(C,60))-(MA(C,200)); Previous = Ref(Difference,-3); Histogram = Difference - Previous; Plot(Histogram, "Hist. MACD 60-200", colorBlack,
styleHistogram); Plot(0, "Nol", colorBlack, styleDashed|
styleNoLabel); _N(Title = StrFormat("- Histogram Difference MA60-
MA200 -")); _SECTION_END();
Slope of MA200
AKRA + MA20 + Yesteday’s MA20
Slope and Previous Data Line (AFL) _SECTION_BEGIN("Slope and Previous Data
Line"); MovAvg = MA(C,20); Previous = Ref(MovAvg,-1); Plot(MovAvg,"MA20", colorBlack, styleLine); Plot(Previous,"Previous", colorBlack, styleDashed); _SECTION_END();
Can Histogram Be Applied ? Can … _SECTION_BEGIN("Histogram Slope and Previous
Data Line"); MovAvg = MA(C,20); Previous = Ref(MovAvg,-1); Histogram = MovAvg - Previous; Plot(Histogram, "Histogram", colorBlack,
styleHistogram); Plot(0,“Nol", colorBlack, styleDashed); _N(Title = StrFormat("- Histogram Slope and
Previous Data Line -")); _SECTION_END();
With Histogram …
… Or with Line …
Slope and Previous Data Line with “Line” _SECTION_BEGIN("Histogram Slope and Previous
Data Line"); MovAvg = MA(C,20); Previous = Ref(MovAvg,-1); Histogram = MovAvg - Previous; Plot(Histogram, "Histogram", colorBlack, styleLine); Plot(0,“Nol", colorBlack, styleDashed); _N(Title = StrFormat("- Histogram Slope and
Previous Data Line -")); _SECTION_END();
Distance Close to MA200
Stocks Above MA200 (Kairi MA200 = Positive)
Stocks Below MA200 (Kairi MA200 = Negative)
JCI Target with Kairi MA200
Distance Close to MA200 (AFL) _SECTION_BEGIN("Distance Close to MA200"); MA200 = MA(C,200); KairiMA200 = ((C - MA200)/C)*100; Plot(KairiMA200 , "MACD 60-200", colorBlack,
styleLine); Plot(0, "Nol", colorBlack, styleDashed|
styleNoLabel); _N(Title = StrFormat("- Distance Close to MA200 -
")); _SECTION_END();
Further Application
MACD Line Concept Any Moving Average to another Moving Average : EMA 12 and EMA 26 MA 60 and MA 200 MA 5 and MA 8 MA 13 and MA 21
MA5 and MA8
MA5 and MA8 (AFL) _SECTION_BEGIN("Difference MA5-MA8"); MA5 = MA(C,5); MA8 = MA(C,8); Difference = MA5-MA8; Plot(Difference, "MA5-MA8", colorBlack, styleLine); Plot(0, "Nol", colorBlack, styleDashed|
styleNoLabel); _N(Title = StrFormat("- Difference MA5-MA8 -")); _SECTION_END();
Signal Line & Slope Concept Slope of Moving Average MA50 MA100 MA200
Slope of Middle Band of : Bollinger Band Donchian Channel Keltner Band
Slope of Tenkan Sen
Slope of Middle of Bollinger Band
Slope of Middle of Bollinger Band (AFL) _SECTION_BEGIN("Slope of Middle of Bollinger
Band"); MidBoll = MA(C,20); Previous = Ref(MidBoll ,-1); SignalLine = MidBoll - Previous ; Plot(SignalLine, "Slope of Middle of Bollinger Band",
colorBlack, styleLine); Plot(0, "Nol", colorBlack, styleDashed|
styleNoLabel); _N(Title = StrFormat("- Slope of Middle of Bollinger
Band -")); _SECTION_END();
Histogram Concept (with Signal Line) Stochastic Oscillator + Histogram between %K and
%D RSI + Smoothing RSI or Previous Data Line of RSI +
Histogram between RSI and Additional Line Apply as well as William’s %R
Percentage of Bollinger Band (%B)
Stochastic Oscillator + Histogram between %K and %D
Stochastic Oscillator + Histogram between %K and %D (AFL)
_SECTION_BEGIN("Stochastic Oscillator %K"); periods = Param( "Periods", 15, 1, 200, 1 ); Ksmooth = Param( "%K avg", 3, 1, 200, 1 ); Dsmooth = Param( "%D avg", 3, 1, 200, 1 ); K = StochK( periods , Ksmooth); D = StochD( periods , Ksmooth, DSmooth ); Plot( K, _DEFAULT_NAME(), ParamColor( "Color
%K", colorBlack ), ParamStyle("Style %K")); Plot( D, "Stochastic %D", ParamColor( "Color
%D", colorBlack), ParamStyle("Style %D",styleDashed));
Plot(80 ,"Overbought Level",colorBlack,0 | styleNoLabel);
Plot(20 ," Oversold Level",colorBlack,0| styleNoLabel);
_N(Title = StrFormat("- Stochastic Oscillator (15,3,3) -"));
_SECTION_END();
_SECTION_BEGIN(“Histogram Stochastic Oscillator %K");
periods = Param( "Periods", 15, 1, 200, 1 ); Ksmooth = Param( "%K avg", 3, 1, 200, 1 ); Dsmooth = Param( "%D avg", 3, 1, 200, 1 ); K = StochK( periods , Ksmooth); D = StochD( periods , Ksmooth, DSmooth ); Histogram = K - D; Plot(Histogram, "Histogram", colorBlack,
styleHistogram); Plot(0, "Nol", colorBlack, styleDashed |
styleNoLabel); _N(Title = StrFormat("- Histogram of
Stochastic Oscillator (15,3,3) -")); _SECTION_END();
Kairi Concept Price with any Middle Bands : Bollinger Band Donchian Channel Keltner Band
Kairi of Middle of Donchian Channel
Kairi of Middle of Donchian Channel (AFL) _SECTION_BEGIN("Kairi of Middle of Donchian
Channel"); Highest20D = HHV(H,20); Lowest20D = LLV(L,20); MidDonchian = (Highest20D + Lowest20D ) / 2 ; Kairi = ((C - MidDonchian )/C)*100; Plot(Kairi , "Kairi Mid Donchian", colorBlack, styleLine); Plot(0, "Nol", colorBlack, styleDashed| styleNoLabel); _N(Title = StrFormat("- Kairi of Middle of Donchian
Channel -")); _SECTION_END();
Any Questions ?
Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CSA, CFTe
Working Experiences
Currently as Junior Investment Manager at Mandiri Healthcare
3 year as Technical Analyst at Trimegah Securities, AmCapital Indonesia and Anugerah Securindo Indah
1 year as Equity Sales at Danareksa Sekuritas
Certifications
Certified Financial Technician (CFTe) from IFTA
Bronwen Wood Award 2011 from IFTA
Certified Securities Analyst (CSA) from SASB Indonesia
[email protected] (+62) 813 145 45 317
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