microsoft and its competition: a developer-friendly market analysis
DESCRIPTION
Presentation given at CodeCamp NYC, October 1, 2011.TRANSCRIPT
Microsoft and its Competition
A Developer-Friendly Market Analysis
Andrew J. Brust, Founder/CEO Blue Badge Insights
Code Camp NYC 2011
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Who Am I?
• Founder, CEO, Blue Badge Insights• Microsoft Regional Director, MVP• Organizing team, Code Camp NYC• Co-chair Visual Studio Live!
Co-moderator, NYC .NET Developers Group– http://www.nycdotnetdev.com
• Founder, MS BI User Group NYC– http://www.msbinyc.com
• brustblog.com, Twitter: @andrewbrust
Column and Blog
Read all about it!
Agenda
• Smartphones• Tablets• Data Platform and Business Intelligence• SOA/Enterprise Service Bus• Cloud• Conclusion
SMARTPHONES
Strong Competitors
• Apple/iOS– iPhone is the ubiquitous successful person’s
phone, with the largest number of available apps– iPad has sold 29 million units in 15 months
• Google/Android– Android outsells iPhone now, both in US, and
globally– Android tablets have thus far flopped
Weak Competitors
• RIM (Blackberry)• Samsung (Bada)• Nokia (Symbian)• HP (webOS phones and TouchPad)
US Smartphone Share as of 08/11Nielsen
Europe Smartphone Share as of 07/11Comscore
Source: Canalys
WW Smartphone Share as Q2 ‘11Gartner
Windows Phone Report Card (+)
• “Mango” update being pushed to phones now; new handsets with Mango on-sale
• Nokia WP7 handset expected to be introduced this month at Nokia World in London
• New pact with Samsung• Customer satisfaction at 93% (Greg Sullivan, MS)• Marketplace app count at > 32,000 (as of Sept 25)• Developer productivity is high• New NPD Group study says 44% of
current/upcoming smartphone owners considering purchasing WP7 device
Windows Phone Report Card (-)• That same NPD Group study says 45% of
consumers are still not aware of WP7. • Marketing and retail presence have been
abysmal• Verizon and Sprint have only 1 WP7
handset, each• eWeek says total 2011 Q2 for WinMo
+ WinPho was 5.8%, down from 7.5% in Q1.
Developments to MS’ Benefit• Google bought Motorola Mobility, leaving
HTC, Samsung, LG and others in the lurch• Death of webOS• Blackberry users are bailing, and need
good email and calendar fidelity, productivity
• Social media integration is becoming a must-have
• Nokia’s bet on WP7 as its exclusive Smartphone platform
TABLETS
Market Roundup
• Right now, the tablet market is the iPad market– Android tablets have not caught on
• Kindle Fire could change that• Windows 8 could change that
– Critically acclaimed– Non-derivative– Phone + PC + Xbox all on Metro
• But– Landscape mode is awkward, especially with 16:9– Metro + Desktop is a bit jarring– Substituting Start screen for Start menu is controversial
Windows 8 Value Prop
• Variety of form-factors, just like PCs• Intel or ARM; you decide• Metro apps are “fast and fluid”• Stop remoting in from your iPad; just run
local• Stop traveling with laptop + iPad• Enterprise deployment of Windows devices
easier than iOS• My personal one: browsing with Metro IE
much nicer than iOS Safari
Wildcards
• Windows 8 + Windows Phone synergies• Windows 8 on ARM• Amazon Kindle “Fire”• Steve Jobs’ health (sorry, but it’s true)• Enterprise preferences• Consumer preferences– Consumption, production or both?
DATA PLATFORM AND BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE
RDBMS Competitors
• Oracle• IBM• MySQL• SAP-Sybase IQ• Data Warehouse Appliances:– Teradata– HP-Vertica– IBM-Neteeza
Relational Database Market
• RDBMS market is very mature• SQL Server now #2, beating out IBM DB2
(does not include Neteeza)• Real changes are coming from “Big Data”– SQL Server Parallel Data Warehouse Edition (PDW)
helps Microsoft; so do Hadoop connectors; so does SQL Azure Federations feature
• MySQL still hurts at the commodity end• NoSQL’s impact is hard to discern
Key BI Competitors
• IBM (Cognos)• Oracle (Hyperion)• SAP (Business Objects)• MicroStrategy• SAS• QlikTech QlikView• Tibco Spotfire• Tableau (partner too)• Open Source: Pentaho and JasperSoft
Microsoft’s BI Situation
• Embedded functionality, rather than discrete products
• All BI functions “surface” in SQL Server, Office, SharePoint
• Features are very competitive, but often overlooked
• Many Microsoft customers own the full BI stack and yet use one of the competitors’ products
• Competition costs much more, which ironically often helps them be the selected platform
• Addition of SQL Server MDS, DQS compelling
MS BI Pros
• SQL Server Analysis Services is one of the longest-established and best OLAP servers on the market– Many competitors interoperate with it
• Microsoft’s VertiPaq technology is very competitive, capable, compelling
• Likewise Project “Crescent”• Microsoft BI has a strong ecosystem of
complimentary products– Panorama, Dundas, SoftArtisans, Roambi, etc.
• MS BI in the Gartner “Leader’s Quadrant”
MS BI Cons
• Microsoft has no iPad story, obviously– Dundas Dashboard mitigates– Windows 8 should help too
• Microsoft has almost no Cloud BI offering– Only SQL Azure and SQL Azure Reporting– No BI features in SharePoint Online (Office 365)
• Most of the BI stack requires SharePoint– Excel Services, PerformancePoint, Crescent– Otherwise just Excel and Reporting Services available
SOA/ENTERPRISE SERVICE BUS
The Stack
• On-premise:– .NET: WCF, WF– Windows Server: AppFabric (Dublin, Velocity)– BizTalk Server
• Windows Azure:– Worker Roles/WCF/WF– AppFabric (Service Bus, Velocity, Access Control)– Forthcoming: AppFabric Integration Services
Key Competitors
• IBM (WebSphere, WebSphere MQ)• Oracle– Bought BEA (WebLogic), Sun (SeeBeyond)
• Tibco• RedHat-JBoss• SAP, sort of
The BizTalk Conundrum
• Mature product, with rich set of adapters• In use at a number of very important customers• Capabilities like EDI, RFID, SWIFT, HL7 give BizTalk
real credibility in specific industry verticals• But it doesn’t generate huge sales, so:– Investment is minimal, and dev is offshore– Field does not know product or work hard to sell it– Roadmap is wishy-washy
• AppFabric and BTS have different architectures• StreamInsight should be tightly integrated, but
isn’t
CLOUD
Public Cloud: Main Competitors• Amazon Web Services• Rackspace• Salesforce’s Force.com• VMWare’s Cloud Foundry• Google App Engine• Red Hat - Makara
Public Cloud: IaaS vs. PaaS
• Infrastructure as a Service helps with scale and provisioning but not with maintenance and simplicity
• Microsoft has thus far been Platform as a Service-specific, Amazon and Rackspace are IaaS
• VM Role and Elastic Beanstalk are the crossovers• Azure is .NET-first but accommodates lots of
other platforms• Most other PaaS offerings are Java-only or Java-
mostly
Public Cloud: Interesting Tidbits• Amazon’s EBS (Elastic Block Storage) has fault
tolerance issues within a data center• Amazon and Microsoft’s prices are nearly
identical in many cases• Some of Microsoft’s best and brightest are
working on Azure right now• There have been many false starts, and some
things, like the VM Role, have been taking forever.
• Microsoft’s capital investment in Azure is said to be in the billions
Private Cloud
• Main components: Hyper-V and System Center Virtual Machine Manager (w/ Self-Service Portal)
• Microsoft is stepping up its game here with Windows Server 8– Better virtualization in new version of Hyper-V– Better multi-tenancy
• Hyper-V Cloud Fast Track: partnering with HP, Dell, IBM, Cisco, others
• But the Azure appliance has receded• With Hyper-V coming on Windows 8 client, the
compete with VMWare starts to become more credible
CONCLUSION
Versatility, and its Consequences
• Microsoft is in more markets than anyone• Consumer, SMB and Enterprise• Client and server OS, developer tools and
platforms, data/BI, SOA, Email, portal, online
• No one else does this– This can make for jack of all/master of none, more
fronts in the competitive war, though.• Microsoft is aging– But doing an impressive job at reinvention
Future
• MS doing amazingly well, given its challenges• But there is still a decline, and it must reverse
that• Consumer play is key• Sustained marketing and investment are key• Big issues (solving them is make/break):– CEO successor-ship– The Redmond groupthink effect– Morale
• This is your battle too…the company is the platform
Questions?
• Now?• Later?– [email protected]– @andrewbrust on Twitter– www.brustblog.com
• Want to get the weekly Redmond Roundup Plus dispatch? Just text the word “bluebadge” to 22828