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Mid-Counties Industrial Market Report Market Trends, Forecasts, and Economic Indicators First Quarter 2014 Crenshaw | Berger | Peshke Bob Crenshaw 949.608.2019 Chuck Berger 714.771.2063 Candi Peshke 949.608.2086

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Page 1: Mid-Counties Industrial Market Report...Average Net Rental Rate The average net rental rate in the Mid-Counties will continue to rise from its low in the Third Quarter of 2010. Due

Mid-Counties Industrial Market ReportMarket Trends, Forecasts, and Economic Indicators

First Quarter 2014

Crenshaw | Berger | Peshke

Bob Crenshaw 949.608.2019Chuck Berger 714.771.2063Candi Peshke 949.608.2086

Page 2: Mid-Counties Industrial Market Report...Average Net Rental Rate The average net rental rate in the Mid-Counties will continue to rise from its low in the Third Quarter of 2010. Due

2

Mid-Counties Industrial Market Report

About the Report

Each quarter, the Crenshaw | Berger | Peshke team issues a reporton the Mid-Counties industrial submarket of the greater LosAngeles and Orange County industrial marketplaces in SouthernCalifornia.

About the Mid-Counties Industrial Market

The Mid-Counties Industrial Marketplace consists of the Cities ofArtesia, Buena Park, Cerritos, Downey, La Mirada, La Palma, SantaFe Springs, and Whittier, located in the southeastern portion of LosAngeles and northern portion of Orange County in SouthernCalifornia.

Important Notice about this Report

The views and opinions expressed within this report are wholly those of itsauthors. All information is based upon data which we believe is reliablebut we can not guarantee its accuracy. Market information, by its nature,is generalized and may not apply specifically to a certain property orsituation. Therefore, we encourage readers to contact us directly todiscuss specific concerns in more detail.

Summary 3

Snapshot 4

From Peak to Future 5

Pricing by Building Class 10

Significant Real Estate 12

Economic Indicators 14

Contact Information 17

0.31

14.47

15.02

4.2813.54

2.193.55

54.40

4.22

Mid Counties RBA1 by City (in Millions of SF)

Artesia Buena Park Cerritos

Downey La Mirada La Palma

Norwalk Santa Fe Springs Whittier

1 RBA-rentable building area

Page 3: Mid-Counties Industrial Market Report...Average Net Rental Rate The average net rental rate in the Mid-Counties will continue to rise from its low in the Third Quarter of 2010. Due

3

Summary

Vacancy and Availability

The Mid-Counties industrial vacancy rate in the First Quarter of2014 was 3.4%, up 50 basis points from the Fourth Quarter of2013 and up 30 basis points from a year ago. We forecast thevacancy rate in the Mid-Counties to shrink to 1.90% by the FirstQuarter of 2015. The availability rate in the Mid-Counties was8.7%, down 20 basis points from the Fourth Quarter of 2013 and30 basis points from a year ago. We forecast the availability rate tobe 6.0% by the First Quarter of 2015. Further discussion on Page 5.

Activity

In the First Quarter 2014 there was 1,604,644 square feet of sellingand leasing activity, up nearly 400,000 square feet from the FourthQuarter 2013 and just under 350,000 square feet year over year.Net absorption was down 537,769 square feet from the FourthQuarter 2013 to negative 1,116,027 square feet, but up 430,993square feet year over year. Further discussion on Pages 5 and 6.

Rates

From the Fourth Quarter 2013 to First Quarter 2014, the averagesale rate per square foot was up by $9.59 to $118.28. Year overyear, the average sale rate was up $12.65 per square foot in theFirst Quarter 2014. We forecast the average sale rate per squarefoot to increase to $125.65 per square foot in the First Quarter2015, an increase of 6.2%. The First Quarter 2014 average netlease rate was down one cent from Fourth Quarter 2013 to $0.51net per square foot, but up one cent from a year ago. We forecastthe average net lease rate will appreciate to $0.55 net per squarefoot in the First Quarter 2015, an increase of 7.8%. Furtherdiscussion on Pages 6-8.

Conclusion

As with the previous quarter, the First Quarter of 2014 had mixedresults for the Mid-Counties industrial marketplace. On the positiveside, sale rates and activity increased in the quarter. Also, theavailability rate decreased. On the negative side, lease rates and netabsorption decreased while the vacancy rate increased. Furtherdiscussion on Page 4.

Despite the mixed results, we believe the Mid-Counties industrialmarket will continue to improve into 2015. A growing economy, lowvacancies, and limited development potential should push rates upwardinto the foreseeable future.

While the trends above cover the Mid-Counties marketplace as awhole, we believe the most telling figures are those describing specificsize ranges and building classes. There is a clear premium being paidfor newer buildings in certain size ranges while the spread betweenrents paid for larger buildings with significant obsolescence continuesto increase compared to smaller sized buildings with similarobsolescence. Further discussion on Pages 10-11.

Economic indicators point to stable demand and appreciating valuesfor Mid-Counties industrial properties into the near future. Furtherdiscussion on Pages 14-16.

We welcome the opportunity to discuss this report in more detail andcan be reached at the contact information listed on Page 17. Thankyou.

Page 4: Mid-Counties Industrial Market Report...Average Net Rental Rate The average net rental rate in the Mid-Counties will continue to rise from its low in the Third Quarter of 2010. Due

4

Snapshot

Change from 4Q ‘13 Historical Perspective

Vacancy Rate-Up 50 Basis Points to 3.4%

SF Sold/Leased-Up 398,997 SF to 1,601,644 SF

# of Leases-Up 1 to 30 Leases

# of Sales-Up 4 to 8 Sales

Average Sale Rate-Up $9.59 PSF to $118.28 PSF

Availability Rate-Down 20 Basis Points to 8.7%2

Net Absorption1-Down (1,116,027) SF to (537,769) SF2

Average Rental Rate-Down 1 Cent to $0.51 Net2

1 Changes in the square footage of occupied space from one quarter to the next.2 Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

Vacancy and Availability

Vacancy Rate Availability Rate

3Q 2007, $0.64

1Q 2014, $0.51

$0.30$0.35$0.40$0.45$0.50$0.55$0.60

Average Net Rental Rate

Average Net Rental Rate

Page 5: Mid-Counties Industrial Market Report...Average Net Rental Rate The average net rental rate in the Mid-Counties will continue to rise from its low in the Third Quarter of 2010. Due

-3,000,000-2,000,000-1,000,000

01,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,000

3Q

20

07

1Q

20

08

3Q

20

08

1Q

20

09

3Q

20

09

1Q

20

10

3Q

20

10

1Q

20

11

3Q

20

11

1Q

20

12

3Q

20

12

1Q

20

13

3Q

20

13

1Q

20

14

Activity

SF Sold/Leased Net Absorp (SF)5

From Peak to Future

Vacancy and Availability

Vacancy and availability rates continue to compress to levels wellbelow the national average. Both market indicators are closing inon pre-Great Recession levels and the last market peak in late2007. We believe the trend of rate compression will continuethrough the next year. Our forecast is for vacancy to compress to1.90% by First Quarter of 2015, a mere 60 basis points higher thanits previous low in First Quarter of 2008. We believe availability willcontinue to slide as well to 6.00% by First Quarter of 2015, only2.70% higher than the previous low in First Quarter 2008. Bothtrends are significant for pricing and market health, as we believelower availability and vacancy has upward pressure on rates andalso limits the buying and leasing opportunities for marketparticipants.

Activity

Selling and leasing activity will continue to range within a 1,000,000to 2,000,000 square feet per quarter average in the next year.While demand may increase due to an improving economy, we seethe lowering vacancy and availability levels as a ceiling to greateractivity in the marketplace. Net absorption levels will seecontinued volatility in the next year, but should increase nextquarter due to the raised level of activity this quarter and resultingspace being filled.

1Q 2008, 1.30%

1Q 2010, 5.10%

1Q 2014, 3.40%

1Q 2015, 1.90%

1Q 2008, 4.30%

1Q 2010, 12.70%1Q 2014, 8.70% 1Q 2015, 6.00%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

3Q

20

07

1Q

20

08

3Q

20

08

1Q

20

09

3Q

20

09

1Q

20

10

3Q

20

10

1Q

20

11

3Q

20

11

1Q

20

12

3Q

20

12

1Q

20

13

3Q

20

13

1Q

20

14

3Q

20

14

1Q

20

15

Vacancy and Availability

Vacancy Rate Availability Rate

Page 6: Mid-Counties Industrial Market Report...Average Net Rental Rate The average net rental rate in the Mid-Counties will continue to rise from its low in the Third Quarter of 2010. Due

6

From Peak to Future

Activity-Sales/Leases

The number of sales and leases in the Mid-Counties will continue aflattening trend into the foreseeable future. The amount of salescontinue to be nearly flat from the market peak in late 2007 andthe lack of available product will dampen any upward pressurefrom increased demand in the 2014. Over the next year, webelieve quarterly sales will average between 8-10 transactions.Leasing also will continue to flatten out after a volatile 2007-2009,strong increases between 2009-2010, and a flattening from 2010to present. We believe quarterly leases will average between 30and 40 transactions per quarter into 2015.

Pricing

Average lease and sale pricing for the Mid-Counties marketplace,will see moderate increases over the next year. Still far from peaklevels, both lease and sale rates have increased nearly everyquarter since Third Quarter 2010, with lease rates appreciatingfaster than sale prices. Lease and sale pricing have a strong positivecorrelation (r=0.84) since 2007 and we believe any percentageincreases within the next year will continue to be similar for bothaverages.

3Q 2012, 42

1Q 2014, 30

1Q 2012, 14 1Q 2014, 8

0

10

20

30

40

50

3Q2007

3Q2008

3Q2009

3Q2010

3Q2011

3Q2012

3Q2013

Activity

# of Leases # of Sales

Log. (# of Leases) Linear (# of Sales)

$-

$50.00

$100.00

$150.00

$200.00

$- $0.10 $0.20 $0.30 $0.40 $0.50 $0.60 $0.70

3Q

20

07

1Q

20

08

3Q

20

08

1Q

20

09

3Q

20

09

1Q

20

10

3Q

20

10

1Q

20

11

3Q

20

11

1Q

20

12

3Q

20

12

1Q

20

13

3Q

20

13

1Q

20

14

3Q

20

14

1Q

20

14

Lease and Sale Pricing

Avg Rent Avg Sales PSFCorrel: .84

Page 7: Mid-Counties Industrial Market Report...Average Net Rental Rate The average net rental rate in the Mid-Counties will continue to rise from its low in the Third Quarter of 2010. Due

7

From Peak to Future

Average Net Rental Rate

The average net rental rate in the Mid-Counties will continue torise from its low in the Third Quarter of 2010. Due to lack ofsupply and slightly increased demand over the coming year, webelieve the average net rental rate will rise around 4 cents to $0.55net or an increase of 7.8%. If rental rates continue to rise by thatamount annually, they could reach the peak rental rate of $0.64net in 2007 by the beginning of 2018.

Average Sale Price PSF

Mid-Counties average sale prices will also continue to increase inthe upcoming year. The average sale price per square foot, whichfell by nearly one-half from Fourth Quarter 2007 to the SecondQuarter 2009, have rebounded by almost 53% since the SecondQuarter 2009. As with the average net rental rate, we believe saleprices will rise around $7 per square foot to $125.65 per squarefoot or an increase of 6.2% over the coming year. At a 6.2% annualincrease, sale prices could reach the peak sale price per squarefoot of $155.04 in 2007 by the middle of 2018.

3Q 2007, $0.64

3Q 2010,$0.42

$0.53 1Q 2014, $0.51

1Q 2015, $0.55

$0.30

$0.35

$0.40

$0.45

$0.50

$0.55

$0.60

3Q

20

07

1Q

20

08

3Q

20

08

1Q

20

09

3Q

20

09

1Q

20

10

3Q

20

10

1Q

20

11

3Q

20

11

1Q

20

12

3Q

20

12

1Q

20

13

3Q

20

13

1Q

20

14

3Q

20

14

1Q

20

15

Average Lease Rate PSF1

4Q 2007, $155.04

2Q 2009, $77.48

1Q 2014, $118.28

1Q 2015, $125.65

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

3Q2007

2Q2008

1Q2009

4Q2009

3Q2010

2Q2011

1Q2012

4Q2012

3Q2013

2Q2014

1Q2015

Average Sale Price PSF

1 Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank

Page 8: Mid-Counties Industrial Market Report...Average Net Rental Rate The average net rental rate in the Mid-Counties will continue to rise from its low in the Third Quarter of 2010. Due

8

From Peak to Future

Market Land Sale Price PSF

With extremely limited supplies of available land for sale, the Mid-Counties market sale price for land has had limited volatility in thepast seven years due to lack of sale transactions. In fact, in themiddle part of this time period there was little to no demand topurchase from developers as the risk of speculative developmentwas seen as too high. Nevertheless, in the past several yearsdemand has picked up again and pricing has risen accordingly. Webelieve Mid-Counties land prices per square foot will rise from $23to $25 in the next year. As lease and sale fundamentals continueto improve, we believe land prices will continue to rise, perhapseven rapidly, into the foreseeable future due to theaforementioned lack of supply, increasing rental rates, andimproving attitudes towards infill development by developers.

2Q 2008, $33

1Q 2014, $23

1Q 2015, $25

$- $5

$10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35

3Q

20

07

1Q

20

08

3Q

20

08

1Q

20

09

3Q

20

09

1Q

20

10

3Q

20

10

1Q

20

11

3Q

20

11

1Q

20

12

3Q

20

12

1Q

20

13

3Q

20

13

1Q

20

14

3Q

20

14

1Q

20

15

Market Sale Price (PSF) for Land

Market Sale Price PSF

Page 9: Mid-Counties Industrial Market Report...Average Net Rental Rate The average net rental rate in the Mid-Counties will continue to rise from its low in the Third Quarter of 2010. Due

9

From Peak to Future

Under Construction1

In the First Quarter of 2014 there was just over 94,000 buildingsquare feet delivered to the Mid-Counties industrial marketplaceand there were no buildings under construction. Over the pastthree years, almost 1.3 million square feet has been delivered tothe market, about half coming from two big-box developments inSanta Fe Springs. We believe the construction fundamentals willcontinue to be limited in the next year to two years, even thoughlease and sale markets are improving. The lack of developablesites and age of the average building will prevent a meaningfuladdition to the overall market base. With most buildings built inthe late 70’s and afterwards, redevelopment opportunities are notas prevalent as they might be in older markets, such asCommerce/Vernon.

Buildings Completed or Under Construction1

Two industrial buildings were delivered to the Mid-Countiesmarketplace, both from a project by Western Realco off NorwalkBoulevard and Smith Avenue in Santa Fe Springs. Over the pastthree years, a total of six buildings have been delivered to the Mid-Counties marketplace with four of the six being delivered in thepast year.

10

6,1

10 3

05

,36

1

32

8,3

78

44

9,2

38

94

,10

1

10

6,1

10

10

6,1

10

10

6,1

10

63

3,7

39

63

3,7

39

32

8,3

78

77

7,6

16

44

9,2

38

44

9,2

38

93

,85

6

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

4Q10

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

1Q14

SF

SF Delivered SF Under Construction

0

1

2

3

4Q10

1Q11

2Q11

3Q11

4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

1Q13

2Q13

3Q13

4Q13

1Q14

# Completed # Under Construction

1 Source: Newmark Grubb Knight Frank

Page 10: Mid-Counties Industrial Market Report...Average Net Rental Rate The average net rental rate in the Mid-Counties will continue to rise from its low in the Third Quarter of 2010. Due

10

Pricing by Building Class

The table to the right indicates our opinion of themarket prices for the starting net lease rate, average netlease rate (average lease rate over the lease termincluding free rent), and sale price per square foot.These market price categories are segregated bybuilding class for the building size segments indicated inthe first column.

Class A buildings have no functional obsolescence forthe typical user, are constructed with superior clearanceheight, truck door to building ratios, truck yards, andsprinkler systems. They were typically constructed in1990 or thereafter in the Mid-Counties.

Class B buildings have some functional obsolescence forthe typical users, have common clearance heights, truckdoor to building ratios, truck yards, and sprinklersystems. Class B buildings typically were constructedfrom 1970 to 1989 in the Mid-Counties.

Class C buildings have considerable functionalobsolescence for the typical user, have inferiorclearance heights, truck door to building ratios, truckyards, and sprinkler systems. Class C buildings typicallywere constructed prior to 1970 in the Mid-Counties.

Not shown are any worthless buildings, sometimesreferred to as Class D, which are valued on the basis ofland not building size.

*

Starting Net Lease Rate

Average Net Lease Rate

Sale Price / SF

A B C A B C A B C

5-9 .63 .53 .40 .63 .51 .41 157 129 116

10-14 .62 .40 .38 .60 .43 .38 153 129 100

15-19 .54 .44 .37 .54 .41 .37 147 127 107

20-29 .52 .42 .37 .52 .40 .35 147 130 93

30-49 .54 .45 .40 .55 .46 .39 147 121 90

50-69 .54 .47 .36 .55 .45 .37 137 127 81

70-99 .56 .45 .32 .56 .45 .33 136 107 73

100-199 .54 .45 .32 .54 .43 .33 110 100 68

200-299 .56 .45 .32 .54 .43 .32 105 95 70

300+ .54 .44 .32 .55 .43 .32 133 90 80

*In regards to the table, rates are in US dollars per month and square footages are in thousands with the upper range ending in 999. Building classes are described in moredetail to the left of the table. Average Net Lease Rate is the average rental rate over the term of the lease, including any free rent.

Page 11: Mid-Counties Industrial Market Report...Average Net Rental Rate The average net rental rate in the Mid-Counties will continue to rise from its low in the Third Quarter of 2010. Due

11

Pricing by Building Class

Current Pricing

The chart on the right hand side of this page represents thestarting net lease rate and sale price per square foot for eachbuilding size segment and class. As the chart indicates, as thebuilding sizes increase the starting net lease rate does not varysignificantly within the same building class. Economies of scalewould indicate that as a building size increases, the lease rateswould correspondingly decrease. This trend does take place inClass C properties, but Class A and B buildings do not have asignificant reduction in their starting net lease rate as theirmember building sizes increase.

What does vary considerably is the difference between the startingnet lease rate between building classes within the same buildingsize segment. For example, the Class A starting net lease rates inbuilding size segments 5,000 to 9,999 and 10,000 to 14,999 squarefeet are considerably higher than those of Class B buildings. Whatthis indicates is that there is a clear premium being paid in themarket for Class A buildings, as opposed to Class B and C product.Also, as the building size increases there tends to be a greaterdifference in starting net lease rates between Class B and Cbuildings–indicating that Class C building owners in larger sizeranges are penalized more compared to their Class C owningcounterparts in the smaller building size ranges.

The chart to the right showing sale price per square foot acrossbuilding size segments and building classes does show more of an“economy of scale” effect than the starting net lease rate,especially in Class C buildings. It also shows a premium for Class Abuildings, although more strikingly so in certain size segments thanin others.

$-

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

Starting Net Lease Rate

A B C

$-

$50.00

$100.00

$150.00

$200.00

Sale Price / SF

A B C

Page 12: Mid-Counties Industrial Market Report...Average Net Rental Rate The average net rental rate in the Mid-Counties will continue to rise from its low in the Third Quarter of 2010. Due

12

Significant Real Estate

Leased

The table to the right details foursignificant lease transactions whichtook place in the First Quarter of2014. We have omitted thefinancial and lease details for eachtransaction out of respect for themarket participants who providesuch data to us. However, we areavailable to discuss the specificterms of all relevant transactionsand their significance in privateconversations.

AddressPhoto

Leased SFPOL

OfficeClear

Dock Pos.Sprinkler

Comments

6400 Valley View, Buena Park

238,270No

7,50019’

11ESFR

24 month lease to Dynamic Worldwide from just up the street in Santa Fe Springs. Asking $0.58 Net. Was on the market for 14 months and vacant for 5 months.

15221 Canary, La Mirada

182,249No

4,50019’

24Yes

Leased to IRD from Santa Fe Springs. Asking $0.49 Net. Was on the market for 25months and vacant for 21 months.

12252 Whittier, Whittier

161,000No

8,00030’

31ESFR

61 month lease to AceWorldclass out of Commerce. Was on the market for 8 months.

8550 Chetle, Whittier

87,286Yes

5,88530’

11ESFR

120 month lease to H Mart from Whittier. Asking $0.52 Net. Was on the market for 7 months and vacant for 6 months.

Page 13: Mid-Counties Industrial Market Report...Average Net Rental Rate The average net rental rate in the Mid-Counties will continue to rise from its low in the Third Quarter of 2010. Due

13

Significant Real Estate

Sold

The table to the right details foursignificant sale transactions whichtook place in the First Quarter of2014. We have omitted thefinancial and sale details for eachtransaction out of respect for themarket participants who providesuch data to us. However, we areavailable to discuss the specificterms of all relevant transactionsand their significance in privateconversations.

AddressPhoto

Sold SFLand SF

OfficeClear

Dock Pos.Sprinkler

Comments

5959 Randolph, Commerce

403,444684,214

12,70430’

59ESFR

Sold to Bentall as a leased investment by Western Realco / CIGNA. Entire building leased to OnTrac.

12039 Smith, Santa Fe Springs

43,43298,520

4,79726’

4.45/3000

Sold to owners of Champion Power Equipment by Western Realco.

13071 Arctic, Santa Fe Springs

25,78252,558

2,91524’

2.45/3000

Sold to owners of Askew Industrial Corp by Chris and Soo Hong.

12111 Park, Cerritos

17,92236,873

3,01616’

0No

Sold to owners of DasanInternational Corp by Trueton Properties LLC.

Page 14: Mid-Counties Industrial Market Report...Average Net Rental Rate The average net rental rate in the Mid-Counties will continue to rise from its low in the Third Quarter of 2010. Due

14

Economic Indicators

GDP

The United States Gross Domestic Product is the marketvalue of all officially recognized final goods and servicesproduced within a year. Gross domestic product is a measureof the health of the economy and, therefore, a logicalindicator of potential demand for industrial space in thefuture. The graph to the right represents the percentagechange in the U.S. GDP quarter to quarter. Since the SecondQuarter of 2009, U.S. GDP has been positive although therate of growth has been inconsistent. Nevertheless, shouldpositive U.S. GDP growth continue, demand for industrialproperties in the Mid-Counties should improve well.

PMI®

The Purchasing Managers Index is a monthly survey-basedindicator produced by the Institute of Supply Management,which surveys purchasing managers from 400 U.S.manufacturing firms about their perception of key businessvariables from prior period. The composite index is read bythe amount below, at, or above 50.0, i.e. a reading below 50indicates a deterioration, at 50.0 indicates no change, andabove 50 indicates an improvement. Also, the further awaythe reading is from 50 in either direction, the greater thesentiment in that direction. The first three months of 2014showed an improvement of sentiment, albeit not as strong asthe previous six months of 2013. Part of this deterioration insentiment may be due to difficult weather conditionsexperienced in late 2013 and early 2014.

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV

GDP Percent Change

GDP Percent Change

08 09 10 11 12 13

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

PMI®

PMI®Source: ISM Report on Business®

Page 15: Mid-Counties Industrial Market Report...Average Net Rental Rate The average net rental rate in the Mid-Counties will continue to rise from its low in the Third Quarter of 2010. Due

15

Economic Indicators

Unemployment Rate

The chart to the right compares the National (U.S.) UnemploymentRate, the Unemployment Rate for Los Angeles and OrangeCounties (LA/OC), and the Mid-Counties vacancy rate from July2007 to January 2014. At the pricing peak of the Mid-Countiesindustrial market in July 2007, national unemployment was 4.7%,local (LA/OC) was 5.3%, and the Mid-Counties vacancy was 1.7%.In January 2014, national unemployment was 6.6% or 40% higherthan July 2007, local was 8.2% or 56% higher than July 2007, andMid-Counties vacancy was 3.4% or 100% higher than July 2007. Itis interesting that the correlation between national unemployment(r=.8115), LA/OC unemployment (r=.7750) and the Mid-Countiesvacancy rate is strongly positive, more so for nationalunemployment. This may indicate a stronger influence of nationaleconomic health on industrial vacancy than local economic health.

Pricing

The pricing indicators Consumer Price Index for All UrbanConsumers in the United States, Consumer Price Index for AllUrban Consumers in the Western Region, the Producers Price Indexfor the United States, and the Producers Price Index of TruckingServices in the United States are shown on the chart to the right.These trends are compared with the average net lease rate in theMid-Counties to determine how much correlation exists betweeneconomic pricing of goods and average net lease rates. Asindicated in the chart legend, for the period between the ThirdQuarter 2007 and First Quarter 2014, the correlation between theaforementioned indicators and the average net lease rate in theMid-Counties is low. The low correlation may indicate that inperiods of low inflation, factors other than pricing have strongereffects on average net lease rates in the Mid-Counties.

Peak

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Jul-

07

No

v-0

7

Mar

-08

Jul-

08

No

v-0

8

Mar

-09

Jul-

09

No

v-0

9

Mar

-10

Jul-

10

No

v-1

0

Mar

-11

Jul-

11

No

v-1

1

Mar

-12

Jul-

12

No

v-1

2

Mar

-13

Jul-

13

No

v-1

3

Unemployment and Vacancy

National Unemployment Rate (r=.8115)

LA/OC Unemployment Rate (r=.7750)

Vacancy Rate

$0.30

$0.35

$0.40

$0.45

$0.50

$0.55

$0.60

$0.65

$0.70

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

220.0

240.0

260.0

3Q

20

07

4Q

20

07

1Q

20

08

2Q

20

08

3Q

20

08

4Q

20

08

1Q

20

09

2Q

20

09

3Q

20

09

4Q

20

09

1Q

20

10

2Q

20

10

3Q

20

10

4Q

20

10

1Q

20

11

2Q

20

11

3Q

20

11

4Q

20

11

1Q

20

12

2Q

20

12

3Q

20

12

4Q

20

12

1Q

20

13

2Q

20

13

3Q

20

13

4Q

20

13

1Q

20

14

Pricing and Lease Rates

PPI (r=-.42) PPI (Trucks) (r=-.24) CPI-U (US) (r=-.47)

CPI-U (Local) (r=-.45) Avg Net Lease

Note: the symbol “r” stands for the correlation coefficient of the series as compared to the vacancy rate.

Page 16: Mid-Counties Industrial Market Report...Average Net Rental Rate The average net rental rate in the Mid-Counties will continue to rise from its low in the Third Quarter of 2010. Due

16

Economic Indicators

Port of Los Angeles and Long Beach

Combined port activity at the Ports of Los Angeles andLong Beach was up slightly in 2013 to just under 14.6million T.E.U.s versus 14.12 in 2012. Port activity at thePort of Los Angeles was down slightly while Port of LongBeach made up the difference with a strong year.Improved port activity is important for industrial realestate in the Mid-Counties as one of the main drivers ofwarehouse space demand in the area.

U.S. International Trade

Total U.S. imports and exports have now surpassed pre-Great Recession levels and the trade balance hasnarrowed slightly since January 2007. In February 2014,the value of U.S. imports was $232 billion, U.S. exportswere valued at $194 billion, and the trade balance was($42) billion. As with the port activity at Los Angelesand Long Beach, U.S. trade is an important driver ofindustrial space demand as goods are manufacturedhere or abroad and transported in and out of the UnitedStates.

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

POLB TotalT.E.U.

POLA TotalT.E.U.

Combined TotalT.E.U.

T.E.

U.’s

Port of Long Beach and Port of Los Angeles Activity

2012 2013

-100,000

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

20

07

Jan

20

07

Ju

n

20

07

No

v

20

08

Ap

r

20

08

Sep

20

09

Feb

20

09

Ju

l

20

09

Dec

20

10

May

20

10

Oct

20

11

Mar

20

11

Au

g

20

12

Jan

20

12

Ju

n

20

12

No

v

20

13

Ap

r

20

13

Sep

20

14

Feb

U.S. Trade in Goods and Services(Millions of Dollars, Months Seasonally Adjusted)

Trade Balance Total Exports Total Imports

Page 17: Mid-Counties Industrial Market Report...Average Net Rental Rate The average net rental rate in the Mid-Counties will continue to rise from its low in the Third Quarter of 2010. Due

17

Contact Information

Bob Crenshaw License #00695049

Managing Director

[email protected]

• 949.608.2019

Chuck Berger License #01359232

Director

[email protected]

• 714.771.2063 | 310.874.7934

• chuckberger.com

Candi Peshke License #01466711

Team Coordinator

[email protected]

• 949.608.2086

Newmark Grubb Knight Frank4675 MacArthur Court, Suite 1600

Newport Beach, CA 92660www.ngkf.com

Bob has been one of the leading producers for Newmark GrubbKnight Frank (formerly Grubb & Ellis Company) over the past 34years. His expertise includes providing real estate consultation tolarge industrial firms and marketing industrial properties in the Mid-Counties. Over the past few years, Bob has been involved intransactions valued over $1 Billion across the United States. Boblives in Huntington Beach.

Chuck has a notable 12 year track record of success with NewmarkGrubb Knight Frank (formerly Grubb & Ellis Company) and ColliersSeeley (now Colliers International). He specializes in providing realestate solutions to large industrial firms and the disposition/leasingof industrial properties in the Mid-Counties. Chuck is a graduate ofStanford University and was a member of its football team. He livesin the Old Towne neighborhood of Orange.

Candi works directly with clients to manage ongoing projects andstrategies. She provides support through portfolio management,lease administration, showings, and serving as a resource for thevarious administrative needs the client might require. Candi lives inRedondo Beach.