Mid-Term Review

Naval War College

Theater Security Decision-Making Dr. Coty Keller

Key Concepts

Tools – Framework for Moral

Decision-making– JMP Framework– DIME methodology – Bartlett Donut

04/22/23 NWC/TSDM Course Review/Synthesis Dr. Coty Keller

2

Strategy Documents Resource Allocation

and Force Planning process

Organizational Behavior

Defense Resource Allocation and Force Planning process

Complex interaction among 5 subsystems

Outputs include – war plans, – strategies, – future years defense

plans– authorization/

appropriation of $, and

– weapons/information systems

Process is based on a rational model, but influenced by organizational behavior and politics

Iterative and cyclical process

You may participate in this process from any number of service or joint organizations including COCOMs

04/22/23 1. NWC/TSDM Course Review/Synthesis Dr. Coty

Keller

3

5 Subsystems of Defense Resource Allocation Process

04/22/23 NWC/TSDM 8 & 9 Dr. Coty Keller 4

JOPES(COCOMS)

JSPS(CJCS)

PPBE(SecDef)

FederalBudget

(Congress)

DAS(SecDef)

War Plans,

Capabilities needed

Strategy, Program

Assessment

FYDP

Authorizes Programs;

Appropriates Funds

Provides new or

continues existing

Weapons and

Information Systems

PLANNING PROGRAMMING BUDGETING AND EXECUTION

POM Build

BudgetEstimate

Statement

PLANNING

PROGRAMMING

BUDGETING AND EXECUTION

Budget Build

OUTPUTS

STRATEGY

DoD TO SVC’sAgencies

SERVICES AND AGENCIES

DoD COMPTROLLER

SECDEF

OSD & OMB

* DAWG = Deputy’s Advisory Working Group

QuadDefense Review

IntegratedPriority

Lists (IPLs)

Chairman’sProgram

Rec

FiscalGuidance

DoD Comp

DefensePlanningGuidance

Chairman’sProgram

Assess

NationalDefenseStrategy

NationalMilitaryStrategyNational

Security Strategy

Program and Budget ReviewResource

ManagementDecisions

FYDP

DoD President’s

BudgetSubmission

DoD COMPTROLLER

04/22/23 5NWC/TSDM 8 & 9 Dr. Coty Keller

Areas of Military

Competition

Logic of Force Planning

Strategy• Ends• Ways• Means

RequirementsWhat the strategy says the military

must do

Operational Challenges

The security environment and obstacles to achieving our

goals

Operational Concepts

Ideas for meeting operational

challenges / future military competition

• Technology• Doctrine• Organization

Required Capabilities

Capabilities to implement operational

concepts

Force Characteristics

Generic capabilities across the spectrum of conflict

How Much is Enough?• Required capabilities in geopolitical context (scenarios)• Budget Constraints• Risk

Operational Force Budget

Programmed Forces

• Size• Mix

Org Behavior

Concept that helps explain or predict security policy-making decisions by understanding

an organizations’ culture relationships between bureaucracy, political leaders and the oversight mechanism of congress

The Org Behavior Perspective Government a collection of

organizations/sub-organizations ACTIONS are the OUTPUTS of

the Organizations Organizations respond to

challenges or problems in terms of IMPACT (INTERESTS/THREAT/OPPORTUNITY) on the organization

Organizations avoid uncertainty and risks

Respond by ROUTINE or SOP Decisions are SATISFACTORY

VICE OPTIMAL

04/22/23 NWC/TSDM Course Review/Synthesis Dr. Coty Keller

7

Organizational Essence“The organization’s essence is the view held by the dominant group within the organization of what its missions and capabilities should be. Related to essence are convictions about what kinds of people – with what expertise, experience, and knowledge – should be members of the organization.” Halperin, Clapp, and Kanter: pg. 27

–An organization favors policies and strategies that align with its essence.

–An organization struggles hardest for the capabilities that it views necessary to its essence.

–An organization resists efforts to take away the functions that it views as part of its essence.

Organizational Behavior Traits*

04/22/23 NWC/TSDM Dr. Coty Keller 9

Organizations act as filters Projects that demand that existing organizational units depart from their

established programs to perform un-programmed tasks are rarely accomplished in their designed form

Projects that require coordination of the programs of several organizations are rarely accomplished as designed

Projects that bring together programs of several organizations will feature an interaction of routines, producing unforeseen and possibly dangerous consequences.

Where an assigned piece of a problem is contrary to existing organizational goals, resistance will be encountered

Leaders can expect incomplete, even distorted, information (from the leader’s perspective) from each sub-organization organization about its part of the problem.

*Norton, Richard J. “Organizational Behavior.” Newport, R.I.: Naval War College faculty paper. April 2007.

Benefits of Org Behavior Perspective

More Effective Decisions: by compensating for for flaws in Rational Model of Decision-making

Helps Explain Decisions Enables us to Anticipate/Predict

Positions/Choices of Sub-Organizations Heads-Up for Ethical Dilemmas (Anticipate

when what is “Right” may be at odds with Organizational Interest/Essence)

04/22/23 NWC/TSDM Dr. Coty Keller 10

04/22/23 NWC/TSDM Course Review/Synthesis Dr. Coty Keller

11

Other Tools Framework for Moral Decision-making: aid to help you do

the right thing in a complex ethical dilemma JMP Framework – visualization of the players and elements

involved in national security policy making, from the point of view of the staff officer

DIME methodology – useful construct for categorizing national security strategies by Diplomatic, Information, Military and Economic means

Bartlett Donut – depicts the dynamic interaction of the main considerations in strategy formulation

04/22/23 NWC/TSDM Dr. Coty Keller 12

Framework for Moral Decision-making (from

“Thinking Ethically,” Velasquez, Andre, Shanks and Meyer,

Issues in Ethics 1996)

Ethical Dilemma

Get the Facts, identify choices

Apply 5 Approaches

Utilitarian

Rights

Fairness

CommonGood

Virtue

Decide

which choice will lead to the best overall consequences?

Which choice best respects rights?

Which choicetreats everyone

the same?

which choiceadvances

thecommon

good?

Which choice develops

moral virtue?

Global ElementsGlobal ElementsU.S. ElementsU.S. Elements

State / Local

PolicyPolicyDecision/ActionDecision/Action

ComplexComplexInteractionsInteractions

Congress Executive/Interagency

JointStaff

COCOMs

DoD

Media

Others

States

SovereigntyInt’l Law / NormsReligion IdeologyCulture

Media

Non-StateActors

Others

Authority/Authority/ResponsibilityResponsibilityMissionMissionResourcesResources

KnowledgeKnowledgeIndividualIndividualInstitutionalInstitutional

Staff EnvironmentStaff Environment

LeaderLeader

BossBoss

Staff OfficerStaff Officer

NGOs

Nations

Org.Org.BehaviorBehaviorCultureCultureFiltersFilters

ProcessProcessOp. FactorsOp. FactorsStructureStructure

Public

IGOs

LawSocietyCulture

Services

Joint Military Policy Framework

04/22/23 13

STRATEGYSTRATEGYSTRATEGYSTRATEGY

RISK RISK RISK RISK

ENDSENDS

MEANSMEANSMEANSMEANS

RESOURCE

RESOURCE

CONSTRAINTS

CONSTRAINTS

SECURITY

SECURITY

ENVIRONMENT

ENVIRONMENT

WaysWaysWaysWays

Bartlett Donut

04/22/23 14NWC/TSDM 8 & 9 Dr. Coty Keller