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24 November @ 4pm GST

Middle East updates

Transitioning to the new normal

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PwC ME COVID-19 website - prior webcasts, insights and resourceswww.pwc.com/me/covid-19

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PwC Middle East - Webcast Series - 24 November 2020

http://pwc.com/me/covid-19

1Economic update

Richard BoxshallChief EconomistPwC Middle East

Update on the latest COVID-19 vaccine developments

Sara BaradaPartner, Health IndustriesPwC Middle East

Agenda

2


Quick poll

If COVID-19 were to end today, how long would you estimate it would

take for your organisation to get back to “business as usual”?


1 Economic updateRichard Boxshall

2 Update on the latestSara Barada

COVID-19 vaccine

developments

Tax UpdatesPwC

November 2020 8

The current state

x


More cases of COVID-19 have been reported in past month than first six months of the pandemic

The US remains the epicenter of the virus with approx +150K positive cases per day

Many countries in Europe have reintroduced lockdown measures including France, UK, Germany etc.

+59 M confirmed cases globally

Source: John Hopkins Coronavirus Research Center, November 24th 2020, https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Confirmed Cases per Country

1. United States +12.4 M

2. India +9 M

3. Brazil +6 M

5. Russia

+2 M4. France

+2 M

6. Spain +1.5 M

7. United Kingdom +1.5 M

8. Italy +1.3 M

9. Argentina +1.4 M

10. Columbia +1.2 M

44. Kuwait

29. Saudi Arabia

41. UAE +122K

+140K

45. Qatar

54. Oman

69. Bahrain

+160K

+85K

+137K

Confirmed Cases - GCC

+355K

Tax UpdatesPwC

November 2020 9

Contagion cannot pass freely from immunized to susceptible


The hope

Infectious agent passes freely from contagious to susceptible

Susceptible Contagious Contagious ImmunizedContagious Susceptible

According to WHO estimates, 60-70% of the population need to be vaccinated to stop the spread of transmission

Vaccines prepare the immune system to recognise and defend itself against a specific disease by triggering an immune response

If a vaccinated individual becomes infected, the immune system recognises the virus and protects the individual

When enough of the population is protected through vaccination we reach herd immunity

Herd immunity occurs when a high percentage of the population is immune to a disease, making the spread of this disease from one person to another unlikely

Tax UpdatesPwC

November 2020 10

The candidates

Pre-Clinical Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Approved

87 131737

Genetic - RNA

Genetic - RNA

Viral Vector

Viral Vector

Inactivated Virus

Inactivated Virus

Viral Vector

500M-1bn

1.3bn

NA

1bn

3bn

1bn

Protein Based

NA

2bn

Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation

Vaccine Type Capacity (#doses in 2021)0Vaccine Candidates

EUA Submitted95% efficacy

Limited use in China

Limited use in China & UAE

Early use in Russia

94.5% efficacy

PwC Middle East - Webcast Series - 24 November 2020 Source: The New York Times, Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker

+70% efficacy*

Tax UpdatesPwC

November 2020 11

New vaccine tested on cells & animals

Small number of volunteers Safety & Dosage

Expanded trials Groups of volunteers Safety & efficacy

Thousands of volunteers, confirm efficacy, monitor side effects

Post approval surveillance & monitoring

The process

Pre-Clinical Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Approval Phase 4

The lifecycle of vaccine development

Submitted for regulatory approval - may receive EAU (Emergency Use Authorization) before formal approval


By combining clinical trial phases & scaling up manufacturing pre-approval the vaccine development process has been accelerated at an undprededent rate

Source: The New York Times, Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker

Tax UpdatesPwC

November 2020 12

TBD

The fastest one

Pre-Clinical Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Approval Phase 4

The lifecycle of vaccine development


● 20+ vaccine candidates tested on rodents

● 2 vaccines taken to clinical trials

Combined Phase 1/2 trials, 120 participants

March May

Combine Phase 2/3 trials, 30,000 participants

July

43,000 participants

Sep

● Efficacy results released

● EUA submitted - 20 Nov

Nov

Source: The New York Times, Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker

Production statistics

Degrees celsius storage requirement

Doses per vial5

Vials per tray Trays per cooler box5

Cooler boxes by end of November

100K195-70

Tax UpdatesPwC

November 2020 13

The regional update

PwC Middle East - Webcast Series - 24 November 2020 Sources: Economic Times, The National, Arab News, Clinical Trials Arena

Vaccine Trials Vaccine Production Vaccine Distribution● Sinopharm China & G42, Abu Dhabi

(Phase 3) ● 2 strains authorised for emergency use● 31,000 volunteers, 120 nationalities ● Russia's ‘Sputnik V’ (Phase 3)

● Target to produce 75-100M doses of Sinopharm vaccine in the UAE in 2021

● Emirates COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution Hub - storage for 10M vials at a time

UAE

KSA

• CanSino China (Phase 3)• 5,000 volunteers • Russia's ‘Sputnik V’ (Phase 3)

Bahrain

• Sinopharm China (Phase 3)• 7,700 volunteers

• Vaccine supply deal with Pfizer & Moderna

• Free to all residents

Qatar

Other GCC countries have participated in clinical trials and have started to prepare for vaccine distribution

Tax UpdatesPwC

November 2020 14

The examples from Europe

UK Germany

• BioNTech (Phase 3), CureVac (Phase 2), IDT Biologika (Phase 1)

• €750m in funding to scale local clinical trials

• Oxford AstraZeneca & Novavax (Phase 3)• NHS COVID-19 Vaccine Registry, +290K volunteers

enrolled

• EU Purchasing Strategy• Expected to receive 100M doses of Pfizer vaccine• Target 55-60% of the population

• Pre-ordered 40M doses (Pfizer) & 5M (Moderna)• Expected to cover one third of the population

• High risk, followed by care homes & healthcare workers

• 60+ regional vaccination centres• Armed forces drafted to help with distribution

• Healthcare workers & elderly to start end of year• Widespread vaccination by April • Community mass vaccination sites


Vaccine Trials

Vaccines Ordered

Distribution Plan

Sources: The Lancet, The Local, Reuters

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November 2020 15 PwC Middle East - Webcast Series - 24 November 2020

The challenges

Heading

1

2

3

4

5

6

Distribution

Finance

Evidence

Production

Public acceptance

Access

Millions of vaccines will need to be produced and as quickly as possible

Most logistically difficult vaccination campaign in history

Infrastructure, transportation, supply chain & storage challenges

More data needed on effectiveness in sub

population groups, how long immunity lasts & and long term

effects

Global survey revealed that approx 30% of the public are hesitant or reluctant to take the vaccine*

Need to Identify and prioritise critical population groups and facilitate equitable distribution

Challenges

WHO highlighted a funding gap of $4.5bn that could hinder access in

lower income countries

Sources: Nature (survey of 13,426 people in 19 countries), WHO

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November 2020 16

The actions

“Act Fast, Act Now, Act Decisively” - Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director General (16th November

2020)

Don’t Get Complacent Engage the PublicGather DataPreparePlan now for decisions on which vaccines should go to whom, when, where, and how often and prepare storage, distribution and supply chain logistics

A vaccine alone will not end the pandemic - surveillance, testing & tracing and prevention measures (social distancing, masks) will need to be maintained until herd immunity is achieved

Have robust systems in place to gather timely data on distribution, efficacy & safety & share through global & regional platforms

Be very clear about what is known and unknown, promote patience, manage expectations and engage communities to build trust through transparency

Involve All SectorsVaccine distribution process needs proactive support and collaboration from multiple sectors, in country and cross-country


Contact us

Stephen Anderson Strategy and Markets Leader

Richard BoxshallChief Economist

PwC Middle [email protected]



Sara BaradaPartner, Health Industries


Thank you

This content is for general information purposes only, and should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional advisors.Established in the Middle East for 40 years, PwC has 22 offices across 12 countries in the region with over 5,600 people. (www.pwc.com/me).PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details.

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middle east updates - pwc...2020/11/24 · pwc middle east - webcast series - 24 november 2020...

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