Midterm Elections in the States – What’s At Stake By Shari Rendall, David Jaroslav, and Colton Overcash

Introduction

Immigration has eclipsed healthcare and the economy as the most important issue to voters, according to several pollsters. And the immigration issue, as well as their overall views of President Trump, will determine who they support at the ballot box. While Republicans have been more likely to consider immigration their top issue, Democrats and Independents previously considered it relatively low on the list. However, that is no longer the case. Democrats and Independents are now likely to mention immigration as a top issue that will determine their vote in November. And President Trump has repeatedly mentioned that this election is a referendum on immigration, making the stakes very high indeed. Of course, Republicans and Democrats have differing views as to why the immigration issue is important. For Republicans, the focus is on illegal immigration and the impact it has on the economy and national security. The Democrats, on the other hand, focus on amnesty and how enforcing our immigration laws impacts illegal aliens. Ultimately, candidates and the future trajectory of the immigration debate and subsequent policies will be determined by how successful Republicans and Democrats are at motivating their base to vote on Election Day. With no consensus in Congress on the immigration issue, state and local governments will continue to lead the public policy arena in many key areas. The midterm elections will likely ensure continued partisanship and inaction in Congress, guaranteeing that voters supportive of President Trump’s agenda will look to their state and local governments when it comes to banning sanctuary policies and implementing E-Verify. To that end, immigration issues have been featured prominently in several of the gubernatorial contests. In deep-blue Oregon, the governor’s race is a toss-up despite Democrats greatly outnumber Republican voters in the state. The election has turned into a referendum on Governor Kate Brown’s (D) leadership. Gov. Brown positioned herself against President Trump early and has been steadfast in opposition to him. She signed an executive order expanding Oregon’s sanctuary law to forbid state agencies and employees from using resources to help federal immigration officials locate or apprehend those individuals in Oregon illegally. She also supported and signed into law House Bill 3464, which prohibits all “public bodies” in the state from sharing or inquiring about a person’s immigration status. However, the “abolish ICE” resistance in Portland appears to have sucked voters’ energy away from Gov. Brown’s campaign. In Iowa, Governor Kim Reynolds (R) was criticized when she mentioned the need for immigration enforcement in her statement regarding college student Mollie Tibbetts’ death at the hands of a criminal alien. She said, “this is not about politics, this is about policy.”

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Finally, in Illinois, Republican Governor Bruce Rauner’s decision to sign the Trust Act, Illinois’ sanctuary law, appears to be one of many unpopular positions he’s taken that is tipping the race to his opponent J.B. Pritzker. Gov. Rauner’s race stands in stark contrast to popular Republican governors Charlie Baker (MA) and Larry Hogan (MD), also from deep-blue states, who have opposed sanctuary state legislation and are expected to cruise to easy victories. For the first time in American history, immigration will be one of the top deciding issues for voters for two election cycles in a row—2016 and 2018. On Election Day, voters will determine whether states are emboldened by President Trump’s immigration agenda to enact anti-sanctuary and E-Verify legislation or undermine his agenda by providing illegal aliens benefits.

By The Numbers While Democrats want to bank on a “blue wave” in order to reverse their Obama-era losses, this does not appear likely to happen. Even if Republicans suffer a number of losses on the federal level, they are not likely to likewise suffer major setbacks on the state and local level. Republicans control two-thirds of the nation’s legislative chambers, 67-32, with Republicans controlling 36 Senate chambers and 31 House chambers compared to Democrats, who control 14 Senate and 18 House chambers. If Democrats flip 14 chambers, which is the most that is currently expected, the Republicans would still control the majority of the state legislatures. There are 36 gubernatorial contests—Republicans have 26 governors’ mansions they are defending compared to nine for the Democrats. One governorship, in Alaska, is held by an Independent. More than 12 of these races do not have any incumbent in the race because they are term-limited. Click Below to Learn About the Races in Your State: Arizona California Colorado Connecticut Florida Georgia Illinois Iowa Michigan Minnesota Nevada

New Hampshire New Mexico New York North Carolina Ohio Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island Vermont Wisconsin

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Arizona In Arizona, the Republican Party trifecta, controlling the Governor’s Mansion, House, and Senate could be in jeopardy. The Senate could lose three seats giving control to the Democrats.1 However, in order for the Democrats to wrest control, they will need to beat three “battle-tested” Republicans.2 Flipping control of the senate would be momentous since Republicans have controlled the Arizona legislature for more than 20 years (since 1991-92).3 If the Democrats are able to take control of the Senate, it could provide them the opportunity to block immigration enforcement legislation from the House. In the governor’s race, incumbent Governor Doug Ducey (R) is favored over Democrat Superintendent of Public Instruction David Garcia. Both candidates have made immigration a campaign issue. Mr. Garcia favors abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) saying, “Trump's immoral actions – which Ducey has enabled – demand that we rebuild our immigration system top-to-bottom and start by replacing ICE with an immigration system that reflects our American values.”4 Governor Ducey called abolishing ICE reckless for a border state.5 Governor Ducey has created a “Border Strike Force” to enforce security at the Arizona-Mexico border. On the other hand, Mr. Garcia believes in providing benefits to illegal aliens including amnesty for Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) recipients.6 If Governor Ducey wins as projected but the state Senate flips to Democrat, he can continue to take executive actions to bolster immigration enforcement. In the event that Mr. Garcia wins and Republicans maintain both the House and the Senate, he could veto immigration enforcement legislation and push policies that are friendly to illegal aliens. California After serving two 4-year terms, Governor Jerry Brown (D) is term-limited so California will elect a new governor this fall. The top two vote-getters in the primary, Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom (D) and businessman John Cox (R), are facing off against each other on the November ballot. Lt. Gov. Newsom has a checkered voting record with respect to immigration. As Mayor of San Francisco, he implemented and expanded the state’s first sanctuary-city policy. However, when San Francisco’s sanctuary policy came under intense scrutiny following the murder of a man and his two sons by a MS-13 gang member who was shielded from deportation, Lt. Gov. Newsom reversed course and spearheaded a citywide policy to require law enforcement officers

1 Louis Jacobsen, “A Month Before Election Day, Democrats Poised for Legislative Gains,” Governing, October 8, 2018, http://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-2018-state-legislatures-democrats-gains.html 2 Id. 3 Dustin Gardiner, “Could Democrats win control of the Arizona Senate? The answer might surprise you,” Arizona Republic, September 24, 2018, https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/09/24/arizona-elections-could-democrats-take-over-state-senate/1308949002/ 4 Laurie Roberts, “David Garcia hands Gov. Doug Ducey a gift with call to abolish ICE,” Arizona Republic, July 10, 2018, https://www.azcentral.com/story/opinion/op-ed/laurieroberts/2018/07/10/david-garcia-doug-ducey-arizona-abolish-ice/772092002/ 5 Id. 6 Id.

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to report juvenile aliens charged with committing violent crimes to ICE.7 After his mayoral stint, Lt. Gov. Newsom flipped his position again and said he was wrong to require the reports to ICE. As a gubernatorial candidate, Lt. Gov. Newsom has positioned himself as best-suited to wage war against President Trump’s immigration policies by expanding benefits for illegal aliens in the state. 8 Mr. Cox, on the other hand, castigates California’s sanctuary-state laws and supports its full repeal. He stated that sanctuary laws keep law enforcement from doing their jobs. 9 He also supports building the border wall and strengthening immigration enforcement.10 Not surprisingly in this deep-blue state, Lt. Gov. Newsom holds a commanding lead over Mr. Cox, with the legislature, already overwhelming Democrat, also poised to expand its margins. Without Governor Brown’s somewhat “moderating” voice, the number of bills favoring illegal aliens passed by the legislature will likely expand. Colorado Currently, Colorado is a purple state that could turn blue. Democrats currently control the Governor’s mansion as well as holding the House (36 to 29).11 In the Senate, Republicans hold a slim two-seat majority over the Democrats (18 to 16).12 There is also an Independent in the Senate who caucuses with the Democrats.13 With the Democrats expected to retain control of the House, the majority of the focus has been on whether control of the Senate will flip.14 In order for the Democrats to take control, they will need to win one seat.15 However, winning one seat will be harder than it sounds—in order to succeed, the Democrats will need to win a seat currently held by a Republican while not losing any of their own.16 The Democrats are currently playing defense in three races while the Republicans have only two hotly-contested seats.17 Furthermore, the governorship is not guaranteed to stay in Democrat hands. Incumbent Governor John Hickenlooper, a moderate voice for Democrats, is term-limited. U.S. Representative Jared Polis (D) is not in the same moderate mold. In fact, Congressman Polis

7 Angela Hart, “Gavin Newsom reported young immigrants to ICE as mayor. Now he says he was wrong.” Sacramento Bee, July 19, 2018, https://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article215092135.html 8 Id. and Associated Press, “Where Do California Governor Candidates Stand On Issues?” October 9, 2018, https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2018/10/09/where-do-california-governor-candidates-stand-on-issues/ 9 Id. 10 Id. 11 Ballotpedia, “Colorado House of Representatives,” accessed on October 30, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/Colorado_House_of_Representatives 12 Ballotpedia, “Colorado State Senate,” accessed on October 30, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/Colorado_State_Senate 13 Id. 14 Louis Jacobsen, “A Month Before Election Day, Democrats Poised for Legislative Gains,” Governing, October 8, 2018, http://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-2018-state-legislatures-democrats-gains.html 15 Andrew Kinney, “Colorado’s political future comes down to five Senate districts, and money is rushing in,” Denver Post, September 27, 2018, https://www.denverpost.com/2018/09/27/colorado-election-2018-senate-race/ 16 Id. 17 Ballotpedia, “Colorado State Senate elections, 2018,” accessed on October 30, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/Colorado_State_Senate_elections,_2018

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cannot even bring himself to vote to support ICE officers. He has voted “no” this Congress on every piece of immigration enforcement legislation considered by the U.S. House of Representatives (Securing America’s Future Act, Border Security and Immigration Reform Act, No Sanctuary for Criminals Act, Kate’s Law, and The Criminal Alien Gang Member Removal Act). Rep. Polis makes a fine distinction in his support for sanctuary cities saying, “[i]f someone is arrested for a crime and they’re not here legally they should be deported. What we’re talking about here are non-criminal immigrants, people who may have entered the country illegally and reside here and work here but have not violated any of our other laws.”18 Rep. Polis’ opponent, State Treasurer Walker Stapleton (R), has made abolishing sanctuary cities in the state a primary focus of his campaign.19 He says, it “comes down to a public safety issue. It is unconscionable [to me] that you could have somebody as we had in Denver who committed vehicular homicide and was charged with a felony and spent less than 14 hours in a Denver jail and was released.”20 A recent poll shows Rep. Polis with an edge over Stapleton, 47-40.21 However, the margin of error is four percent and 11 percent of voters remain undecided.22 This past legislative session the state House passed a sanctuary bill23 while the state Senate passed an anti-sanctuary bill.24 If Democrats retain the Colorado House and wrest control of the state Senate and win the Governor’s race, Colorado could become a sanctuary state. However, if the Governor’s seat goes Republican, it is likely that Stapleton will veto a sanctuary bill. With a two-thirds majority of each legislative body required to override the veto,25 it is unlikely in this scenario that Colorado would become a sanctuary state. If the legislature remains divided and Stapleton wins the Governor’s race, he has indicated that he will pursue every avenue open to abolish sanctuary policies in Colorado.26 Connecticut Governor Dan Malloy (D) is not seeking re-election, and Ned Lamont (D) leads Bob Stefanowski (R) in the race to succeed him, which RealClearPolitics rates as only “Leans Dem.”27 The state Senate is evenly divided, 18 to 18,28 and the House of Representatives is quite close as well,

18 Shaun Boyd, “Colorado Gubernatorial Candidates Differ On Immigration,” CBS 4 Denver, September 21, 2018, https://denver.cbslocal.com/2018/09/21/gubernatorial-jared-polis-walker-stapleton-governor-immigration-election/ 19 Id. 20 Id. 21 Id. 22 Id. 23 Colorado General Assembly, House Bill 18-1273, http://leg.colorado.gov/bills/hb18-1273 24 Colorado General Assembly, Senate Bill 18-220, http://leg.colorado.gov/bills/sb18-220 25 Colorado Constitution, Article IV, Section 11, https://ballotpedia.org/Article_IV,_Colorado_Constitution#Section_11 26 Shaun Boyd, “Colorado Gubernatorial Candidates Differ On Immigration,” CBS 4 Denver, September 21, 2018, https://denver.cbslocal.com/2018/09/21/gubernatorial-jared-polis-walker-stapleton-governor-immigration-election/ 27 RealClearPolitics, “Connecticut Governor - Stefanowski vs. Lamont,” accessed October 25, 2018, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/ct/connecticut_governor_stefanowski_vs_lamont-6577.html 28 Ballotpedia, “Connecticut State Senate,” accessed on October 25, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/Connecticut_State_Senate

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with 80 Democrats to 71 Republicans.29 The Attorney General’s office might also change hands, in what has been described as an “intensely competitive election,” following the retirement of current AG George Jepsen (D).30 All of which, perhaps surprisingly, present a fair chance of dramatic changes for the better in the Nutmeg State over the next two years. Connecticut’s sanctuary-state law, its so-called “Trust Act,”31 went into effect at the beginning of 2014. However, it is significantly weaker in many respects than those of other states, such as California, Illinois or Oregon, both because it has extensive exceptions to its ban on honoring immigration detainers, and because it does not limit or restrict communication or information-sharing with immigration authorities. Should the governorship and one or both chambers of the legislature change hands, this may provide an opportunity to repeal the law or at the very least further weaken it. If legislation is not possible, a change in both the governorship and the attorney general’s office might provide an opportunity for the state to challenge the constitutionality of its own statute. This could involve, for example, the new governor issuing an executive order to the Connecticut Department of Corrections requiring it to honor all immigration detainers, which would directly conflict with the Trust Act, and the new attorney general then defending such an order in court. Career prosecutor Susan Hatfield (R) has said she believes the state is less safe than it was ten years ago and that as attorney general she would aim to fix that.32 Thus, defending such an executive order would logically follow. Such a suit could raise both state constitutional arguments regarding separation of powers, as well as federal constitutional arguments regarding the Supremacy Clause of the Constitution, as raised in the federal government’s challenge of California’s sanctuary law. Connecticut has faced budget several crises in the past few years, so a change of party control in Hartford might also serve as an impetus to restrict the availability of various public benefits programs to illegal aliens and to require verification of citizenship or legal immigration status to receive them. The state also does not currently mandate the use of E-Verify, but if both the governorship and legislature change parties, legislation is likely to be introduced to do so, covering at least some private-sector employers. Or even without an accommodating legislature, a new governor could possibly require E-Verify by executive order, at least as it applies to some state agencies and/or contractors. Florida If Congressman Ron DeSantis (R) succeeds Rick Scott (R) as Governor, there is likely to be a continuation or even significant strengthening of immigration enforcement in the executive branch of state government. 29 Ballotpedia, “Connecticut House of Representatives,” accessed on October 25, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/Connecticut_House_of_Representatives 30 Daniela Altimari, “In Attorney General's Race, A Proxy War Over the Trump Agenda,” Hartford Courant, July 25, 2018, http://www.courant.com/politics/elections/hc-pol-attorney-general-trump-proxy-war-20180720-story.html 31 Connecticut General Assembly, Substitute House Bill No. 6659 (2013), Public Act No. 13-155, https://www.cga.ct.gov/2013/act/pa/2013PA-00155-R00HB-06659-PA.htm 32 Max Reiss, “AG Candidates Use Trump, Malloy as Major Points,” NBC CT, October 1, 2018, https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/NBC-CT-to-Host-First-Attorney-General-Debate-Ahead-of-General-Election-494805511.html?_osource=SocialFlowTwt_CTBrand

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If, however, Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum (D) is the Sunshine State’s next governor, he seems likely to do everything he possibly can to embrace sanctuary policies and the open-borders/illegal immigration agenda of the far left. The question then becomes how much of Florida’s state constitution—which enshrines a formal system of so-called “cabinet government”33—might restrain him from doing so. In Florida, a great deal of the executive power typically wielded by governors unilaterally in most states is instead formally in the hands of the governor and Cabinet. The cabinet consists of the other statewide elected officeholders: the attorney general, the chief financial officer, and the commissioner of agriculture & consumer services (“Ag Commissioner”).34 The governor and Cabinet frequently sit together as the governing body of various agencies and for various purposes, and require a majority vote to take action. The chances of a change of party or direction in any of those other offices currently appears much less likely than for the governorship, which would leave Gillum without the votes for many forms of executive action. For example, if a future Governor Gillum wanted to grant pardons to aliens previously convicted of state crimes, in order to attempt to protect them from immigration consequences like Governor Brown in California or Governor Cuomo in New York, he would need the agreement of at least two of the three members of the cabinet,35 which would be unlikely. Florida’s principal statewide law enforcement agencies are: the Florida Department of Law Enforcement (FDLE), under the authority of the governor and Cabinet;36 the Florida Highway Patrol (FHP), a division of the Florida Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles, itself also headed by the governor and Cabinet;37 and the Florida Fish & Wildlife Commission, headed by a seven-member board with staggered five-year terms, appointed by the governor subject to confirmation by the Florida Senate.38 Based on their structure, Gillum acting alone would encounter very significant difficulty changing the current policies of any of these agencies. However, there are two other state agencies under direct gubernatorial control where Gillum could most easily implement sanctuary policies unilaterally: the Florida Department of Corrections, which runs the state’s adult prison and felony probation systems;39 and the Florida Department of Juvenile Justice, which runs its juvenile detention, supervision and residential-commitment systems.40 Both departments currently communicate freely with federal

33 Florida Governor and Cabinet, “Structure of the Florida Cabinet,” accessed October 25, 2018, http://www.myflorida.com/myflorida/cabinet/structurehistory.html 34 Florida Constitution, Article IV, Section 4, https://ballotpedia.org/Article_IV,_Florida_Constitution#Section_4 35 Florida Constitution, Article IV, Section 8, https://ballotpedia.org/Article_IV,_Florida_Constitution#Section_8 36 Florida Statutes, Section 20.201, http://www.leg.state.fl.us/Statutes/index.cfm?App_mode=Display_Statute&Search_String=&URL=0000-0099/0020/Sections/0020.201.html 37 Florida Statutes, Section 20.24, http://www.leg.state.fl.us/Statutes/index.cfm?App_mode=Display_Statute&Search_String=&URL=0000-0099/0020/Sections/0020.24.html 38 Florida Constitution, Article IV, Section 9, https://ballotpedia.org/Article_IV,_Florida_Constitution#Section_9 39 Florida Statues, Section 20.315, http://www.leg.state.fl.us/Statutes/index.cfm?App_mode=Display_Statute&URL=0000-0099/0020/Sections/0020.315.html 40 Florida Statutes, Section 20.316, http://www.leg.state.fl.us/Statutes/index.cfm?App_mode=Display_Statute&Search_String=&URL=0000-0099/0020/Sections/0020.316.html

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immigration authorities and honor immigration detainers. As governor, it is possible and perhaps likely that Gillum could order one or both to cease doing so, on the model of the gubernatorial sanctuary directive in effect in Rhode Island, for example. This would prevent some of Florida’s most dangerous criminal aliens, all with felony records, from being deported, likely leading to them being released back into the community and re-offending. As governor, Gillum also could, and likely would, reverse Rick Scott’s executive order41 currently requiring the use of E-Verify by state agencies under direct gubernatorial control and by those contracting with or seeking to contract with those agencies. Most state agencies, however, answer not to the governor alone but to the governor and cabinet, to boards appointed in various ways, or to the other individual members of the Cabinet,42 which the executive order “encouraged” but could not order to use E-Verify. Legislatively, Gillum’s most likely impact would not be to dramatically expand pro-illegal immigration policies as he’d like, but vetoing continued pro-enforcement/rule of law legislation from the state legislature. There is some chance of a change in party control in the Florida Senate but very little in the Florida House of Representatives. There is likewise essentially no chance that both chambers could have a two-thirds supermajority43 necessary to override a Gillum veto. Therefore, the likeliest legislative outcome of a Gillum governorship would not be statewide sanctuary or anti-sanctuary legislation but at least two years of gridlock leading up to the 2020 election. Georgia The gubernatorial election in Georgia will likely be one of the most contested governor’s races of 2018. Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp and Democratic former State Representative Stacey Abrams are locked in a statistical tie, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.44 While RealClearPolitics does give Kemp a 1.6-point edge against Abrams45, it is within the poll’s margin of error. It is possible that the vote margin between the two candidates will be less than 1 percent, which could trigger a recount after the election.46 The attorney general’s office might also switch hands. Incumbent Chris Carr (R) is running against former Fulton County Assistant District Attorney Charlie Bailey (D), who is well-financed and supported by former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder.47 Cozen O’Conner’s State Attorney General Election Tracker currently projects the race as “Leans Republican.”48

41 State of Florida, Office of the Governor, Executive Order No. 11-02 (January 4, 2011), https://www.flgov.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/scott.eo_.two_.pdf 42 Florida Constitution, Article IV, Section 6, https://ballotpedia.org/Article_IV,_Florida_Constitution#Section_6 43 Florida Constitution, Article III, Section 8, https://ballotpedia.org/Article_III,_Florida_Constitution#Section_8 44 Greg Bluestein, “AJC/Channel 2 Poll: Abrams and Kemp in Tight Race; Trump’s Approval Up,” Atlanta Journal-Constitution, October 11, 2018, https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ajc-channel-poll-abrams-and-kemp-tight-race-trump-approval/ySaDfKCZYXj3RrGnJUBE6O/ 45 RealClearPolitics, “Georgia Governor – Kemp vs. Abrams,” accessed on October 25, 2018, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/ga/georgia_governor_kemp_vs_abrams-6628.html 46 Georgia Code (2017), Section 21-2-495, https://law.justia.com/codes/georgia/2017/title-21/chapter-2/article-12/section-21-2-495/ 47 Letter from Eric Holder, “GA-AG: Eric Holder Gives Charlie Bailey (D) A Boost In Defeating Political Hack Chris Carr (R),” Daily Kos, October 12, 2018; https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2018/10/12/1803828/-GA-AG-Eric-Holder-Gives-Charlie-Bailey-D-A-Boost-In-Defeating-Political-Hack-Chris-Carr-R 48 State Attorney General Election Tracker, “Georgia,” accessed on October 25, 2018, https://stateagelections.com/states/georgia/

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The legislature will almost certainly remain under Republican control. The state Senate is controlled by a Republican supermajority, with 37 Republicans to 19 Democrats.49 The House of Representatives is controlled by a Republican simple majority, with 115 Republicans to 64 Democrats.50 It’s reasonable to expect Democratic gains in both chambers, especially in districts that crisscross Atlanta’s suburbs. However, this will hardly affect the overall composition of the legislature. If Abrams and Bailey win their respective races, then it is possible that the two will join forces to challenge President Trump’s immigration agenda in the courts. In particular, the two might join litigation addressing sanctuary cities and the DACA program. Abrams might also issue an executive order to halt the state from enforcing Georgia’s anti-sanctuary law, House Bill 8751, which became law in 2011. Or Abrams could revoke the Georgia Department of Corrections’ 287(g) partnership with ICE.52 Should Kemp secure victory for himself in November, he can be expected to work with the Republican legislature to enact conservative immigration legislation, including stricter E-Verify and anti-sanctuary laws. Illinois Illinoisans are likely to vote Democrat in November. The Land of Lincoln has shifted left in most state elections since the early 2000s,53 and a blue wave appears to be forming against vulnerable Republicans across the state. Governor Bruce Rauner (R) is arguably the most vulnerable Republican candidate In Illinois. The embattled incumbent is trailing behind Democratic businessman J.B. Pritzker by a wide margin in the polls, according to RealClearPolitics.54 This is likely a result of Rauner’s low approval ratings. The governor’s approval and disapproval ratings among all Illinoisans is 27 percent and 60 percent respectively,55 while Pritzker’s favorable and unfavorable ratings are 43 percent to 39 percent.56 The race is currently projected as “Leans Democratic.”57

49 Ballotpedia, “Georgia State Senate,” accessed on October 25, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia_State_Senate 50 Ballotpedia, “Georgia House of Representatives,” accessed on October 25, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/Georgia_House_of_Representatives 51 Georgia General Assembly, House Bill 87 (2011) (“Illegal Immigration Reform and Enforcement Act of 2011”), http://www.legis.ga.gov/legislation/en-US/display/32190 52 United States Immigration and Customs Enforcement, “Delegation of Immigration Authority Section 287(g) Immigration and Nationality Act,” accessed on October 25, 2018, https://www.ice.gov/287g 53 Wikipedia, “Political Party Strength in Illinois,” accessed on October 25, 2018, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_Illinois 54 RealClearPolitics, “Illinois Governor – Rauner vs. Pritzker,” accessed on October, 25. 2018, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/il/illinois_governor_rauner_vs_pritzker-6439.html 55 Cameron Easley, “America’s Most and Least Popular Governors,” Morning Consult, October 10, 2018, https://morningconsult.com/2018/10/10/americas-most-and-least-popular-governors-q3-2018/ 56 Rick Pearson, “NBC/Marist Poll: Pritzker Up By 16, Rauner 2-To-1 Unfavorable Rating,” Chicago Tribune, August 22, 2018, http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/politics/ct-met-pritzker-rauner-new-poll-20180821-story.html 57 Louis Jacobsen, “A Month Before Election Day, Democrats Poised for Legislative Gains,” Governing, October 8, 2018, http://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-2018-state-legislatures-democrats-gains.html

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The Democratic Party is projected to grow its majorities in the state legislature also. The state Senate is controlled by a Democratic simple majority, with 37 Democrats to 22 Republicans.58 If a blue wave actually forms, the Democrats may be able to grow their majority into a supermajority with a net gain of 3 seats. It is likely that the Democrats will make modest gains in the House of Representatives, but will not acquire enough seats to reach the supermajority status. Currently, Democrats hold 67 seats to 51 seats controlled by Republicans.59 Attorney General Lisa Madigan (D) is not seeking reelection, and either Kwame Raoul (D) or Erika Harold (R) will succeed her in November. It is likely that Raoul will win the election, considering that he holds a wide lead against Harold. Cozen O’Conner’s State Attorney General Election Tracker currently projects the race as “Safe Democratic.”60 If Pritzker and Raoul win their respective races, then it is likely that they will work with the Democratic legislature to enact legislation that further expands their pro-illegal immigration laws, like the sanctuary “Illinois Trust Act,”61 while also challenging President Trump’s immigration agenda in court. If Rauner is reelected, then it is likely that he will govern over a lame-duck term and accomplish nothing, considering the political composition of the legislature. It’s important to note that Governor Rauner’s signing of the Illinois Trust Act factors heavily into his disapproval rating.62 A significant number of Republican voters have expressed their displeasure with the Governor’s willingness to concede to Democratic lawmakers and afford more legal protections to illegal aliens. This is in stark contrast to Maryland Governor Larry Hogan (R), who threatened to veto the Maryland Law Enforcement and Trust Act63, which would’ve turned Maryland into a sanctuary state.64 Or, Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker (R), who threatened to veto a similar measure in the Bay State in May.65 Both incumbents enjoy high approval ratings in blue states despite their firm positions on immigration issues.66

58 Ballotpedia, “Illinois State Senate,” accessed on October 25, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/Illinois_State_Senate 59 Ballotpedia, “Illinois House of Representatives,” accessed on October 25, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/Illinois_House_of_Representatives 60 State Attorney General Election Tracker, “Illinois,” accessed on October 25, 2018, https://stateagelections.com/states/illinois/ 61 Illinois General Assembly, Senate Bill 31 (2017), accessed on October 25, 2018, http://www.ilga.gov/legislation/BillStatus.asp?DocNum=31&GAID=14&DocTypeID=SB&LegId=98874&SessionID=91&GA=100 62 John J. Miller, “The Worst Republican Governor in America,” National Review, December 18, 2017, https://www.nationalreview.com/magazine/2017/12/18/bruce-rauner-illinois-worst-republican-governor-america/ 63 Maryland General Assembly, Senate Bill 0835 (2017), http://mgaleg.maryland.gov/webmga/frmMain.aspx?id=sb0835&stab=01&pid=billpage&tab=subject3&ys=2017RS 64 WMAR Staff, “Gov. Hogan Opposes State ‘Sanctuary Bill’,” WMAR 2 Baltimore, March 21, 2017, https://www.wmar2news.com/news/political/gov-hogan-opposes-state-sanctuary-bill 65 Andy Metzger, “Gov. Charlie Baker Would Veto Senate Immigration Measure,” State House News Service, May 24, 2018, https://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2018/05/gov_charlie_baker_would_veto_s.html 66 Id.

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Iowa Iowa may potentially see an upset in its gubernatorial election. Businessman Fred Hubbell (D) narrowly leads incumbent Kim Reynolds (R) by 3.5 points, according to RealClearPolitics.67 This is likely a result of Reynolds’ low approval ratings. The governor’s approval and disapproval ratings among all Iowans is 46 percent and 38 percent respectively,68 while Hubbell’s favorable and unfavorable ratings are 42 percent and 27 percent.69 The race is currently projected as a “Toss Up.”70 Attorney General Thomas Miller (D) is running for re-election to his tenth term against Marco Battaglia (L) and, with no Republican challenger, is expected to win the race overwhelmingly.71 The state legislature is likely to remain under Republican control. In the state Senate, Republicans hold a simple majority, with 29 Republicans to 21 Democrats.72 In the House of Representatives, Republicans hold a simple majority, with 59 Republicans to 41 Democrats.73 It remains unclear as to where Hubbell stands on immigration issues. He has been remarkably quiet about it since he announced his candidacy for governor and hasn’t published any literature about his immigration positions on his campaign website. Given his business background, it’s unlikely that he will support E-Verify legislation. The legislature will not have the votes to override his veto either. If Reynolds is reelected, then it is possible that she and the legislature will work together to enact pro-enforcement immigration legislation, like mandatory E-Verify and prohibitions on in-state tuition for illegal aliens. Michigan The Wolverine State is likely to see significant turnover in state government on Election Day. The governor’s office and attorney general’s offices are both open seats and have strong Democratic candidates vying to fill them. Former State Senator Gretchen Whitmer (D) holds a 9.2 point lead against Republican Attorney General Bill Schuette in the governor’s race, according to RealClearPolitics.74 Similarly, civil-rights attorney Dana Nessel (D) is leading

67 RealClearPolitics, “Iowa Governor – Reynolds vs. Hubbell,” accessed on October 25, 2018, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/ia/iowa_governor_reynolds_vs_hubbell-6477.html 68 Id. 69 Brianne Pfannenstiel, “Iowa Poll: Democrat Fred Hubbell Narrowly Leads Republican Kim Reynolds in Governor’s Race,” Des Moines Register, September 22, 2018, https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2018/09/22/iowa-poll-hubbell-reynolds-governor-des-moines-register-2018-election-republican-democrat/1381513002/ 70 Id. 71 2018 Election Outlook: Attorney General Races, “Iowa,” BGR Group, June 19, 2018, http://www.bgrdc.com/state_and_local_newsletter/BGR-2018-Attorneys-General-Election-Outlook.pdf 72 Ballotpedia, “Iowa State Senate,” accessed on October 25, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa_State_Senate 73 Ballotpedia, “Iowa House of Representatives,” accessed on October 25, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/Iowa_House_of_Representatives 74 RealClearPolitics, “Michigan Governor – Schuette vs. Whitmer,” accessed on October 25, 2018, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/mi/michigan_governor_schuette_vs_whitmer-6441.html

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Michigan House Speaker Tom Leonard (R) by 7 points in the attorney general race, according to a poll by Glengariff Group.75 In the state Senate, 27 of the 38 seats will be open due to term limits, most of them Republicans. However, it’s unlikely that Democrats will gain enough net seats to flip the upper chamber. In the House of Representatives, a small percentage of seats are open, but there are about an equal number of seats that are marginally Democrat and marginally Republican, boosting the Democrats’ odds of seizing control of the lower chamber. Currently, the Republicans hold a simple majority in both the chambers. In the state Senate, there are 27 Republicans to 10 Democrats.76 In the House of Representatives, there are 64 Republicans to 46 Democrats.77 If Whitmer and Nessel win their respective races, then it is likely that they will work together to obstruct the Trump Administration, especially if the Democrats take control of the legislature. In particular, Whitmer and the legislature may take action to overturn Michigan Public Act 124 of 2011,78 which prohibits the issuance of drivers’ licenses to illegal aliens. Sanctuary legislation may also be enacted under Democratic leadership. Whitmer is in favor of abolishing ICE and turning Michigan into a sanctuary state.79 If Republicans retain their majorities in the legislature, then Whitmer will most likely work to reshape Michigan’s immigration laws by executive order. Specifically, she could issue an executive order requiring every administrative unit of the executive branch to not cooperate with federal immigration officials, including the Department of Corrections, on detainer requests. Nessell is also on record stating that she will use the attorney general’s office to defend illegal aliens.80 She has even promised to “not cooperate with federal authorities,” “sue the Trump administration all day,” and will not “defend unconstitutional laws passed by the legislature.” In this context, what is considered unconstitutional is subjective. If a Republican legislature were to pass anti-sanctuary legislation and it was challenged in the courts, she would be unlikely to defend it. Minnesota One of the chambers in the Minnesota legislature may shift from Republican to Democrat control in November. The state Senate is evenly divided, 33 to 33, and the House of

75 Jonathan Oosting, “Poll: Whitmer Beating Schuette on Issues in Michigan Governor Race,” Detroit News, October 4, 2018, https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/local/michigan/2018/10/04/poll-whitmer-beating-schuette-issues/1514211002/ 76 Ballotpedia, “Michigan State Senate,” accessed on October 25, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/Michigan_State_Senate 77 Ballotpedia, “Michigan House of Representatives,” accessed on October 25, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/Michigan_House_of_Representatives 78 Michigan Legislature, House Bill 4533 (2011), accessed on October 25, 2018, http://www.legislature.mi.gov/(S(3ykcnmzbtbbb3jxa4jsmvvej))/mileg.aspx?page=GetObject&objectName=2011-hb-4533 79 Michigan Republican Party, “Whitmer Waffles on ICE Abolition Newly Released Footage Shows Whitmer Calling for Abolition of ICE,” accessed on October 25, 2018, https://www.migop.org/waffling_whitmer_on_abolishing_ice 80 Ted Roelofs, “Michigan Attorney General Candidate Dana Nessell Attacked By Her Own Words,” Bridge, May 29, 2018, https://www.bridgemi.com/public-sector/michigan-attorney-general-candidate-dana-nessel-attacked-her-own-words

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Representatives is at risk of losing several Republican lawmakers.81 Currently, the Republicans hold a simple majority in the House of Representatives, with 78 Republicans to 56 Democrats.82 Control of the state Senate is projected to be a “Toss Up.”83 The governor’s office and attorney general’s offices are open seats and have strong Democratic candidates vying to fill them. Gubernatorial candidate Tim Walz (D) holds a 9 point lead against Republican challenger Jeff Johnson, according to RealClearPolitics.84 Similarly, Congressman Keith Ellison (D) led former State Representative Doug Wardlow (R) by 5 points in the attorney general race in September, 85 but now Wardlow appears to be leading by 7 points, according to polls by the Minneapolis Star-Tribune.86 Ellison is dodging accusations of domestic violence against his ex-girlfriend. If Republicans lose their majorities in the legislature, then it is likely that Democratic lawmakers will work with Walz to enact legislation that grants more protections to illegal aliens. Walz supports increased refugee resettlement, sanctuary cities, and wants to limit cooperation with local law enforcement and federal immigration authorities. Ellison holds similar positions and would likely support any action taken by Walz and Democratic lawmakers. Nevada Governor Brian Sandoval (R) is term-limited and will not be on the ballot in November. Clark County Commission Chair Steve Sisolak (D) and state Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) are vying to fill his seat. The race is currently projected as a “toss up”, with Laxalt locked in a statistical tie against Sisolak. While RealClearPolitics does give Laxalt a 0.8 point lead, it is well within the poll’s margin of error.87 On the other hand, the attorney general’s race is shaping up to be a potential Republican victory, with prosecutor Wes Duncan (R) leading state Senator Aaron Ford (D) by two points. Cozen O’Conner’s State Attorney General Election Tracker currently projects the race as “Lean Republican.”88 If Duncan and Laxalt win their respective races, then it’s reasonable to assume that both incumbents will work to cooperate with federal immigration authorities on illegal immigration and

81 Ballotpedia, “Minnesota State Senate,” accessed on October 25, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/Minnesota_State_Senate 82 Ballotpedia, “Minnesota House of Representatives,” accessed on October 25, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/Minnesota_House_of_Representatives 83 Louis Jacobsen, “A Month Before Election Day, Democrats Poised for Legislative Gains,” Governing, October 8, 2018, http://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-2018-state-legislatures-democrats-gains.html 84 RealClearPolitics, “Minnesota Governor – Johnson vs. Walz,” Accessed on October 25, 2018, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/mn/minnesota_governor_johnson_vs_walz-6443.html 85 Dennis J. McGrath, “Ellison Leads Wardlow; Most Not Sure About Abuse Allegation,” Minneapolis Star-Tribune, September 19, 2018, http://www.startribune.com/minnesota-poll-keith-ellison-leads-doug-wardlow-most-not-sure-about-abuse-allegation/493500621/ 86 Jessie Van Berkel, “Minnesota Poll: Doug Wardlow leads Keith Ellison in attorney general's race,” Minneapolis Star-Tribune, October 23, 2018, http://www.startribune.com/minnesota-poll-doug-wardlow-leads-keith-ellison-in-attorney-general-s-race/498264151/ 87 Real Clear Politics, “Nevada Governor – Laxalt vs. Sisolak,” accessed on October 26, 2018, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/nv/nevada_governor_laxalt_vs_sisolak-6422.html 88 State Attorney General Election Tracker, “Nevada,” accessed on October 26, 2018, https://stateagelections.com/states/nevada/

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potentially join the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ)’s lawsuit against California’s state sanctuary laws.89 Both Duncan and Laxalt have precedent for this: the two signed onto a lawsuit challenging former President Barack Obama’s expansion of the DACA program.90 However, if Sisolak or Ford win their respective races, then it’s likely that either incumbent will work with the Democratic-controlled legislature to pass pro-illegal immigration laws, including state sanctuary laws.91 Ford has repeatedly stated that he wants to prevent local law enforcement from cooperating with federal immigration authorities on ICE detainers.92 The legislature is unlikely to see any significant changes after the election. Legislative races in both chambers are projected as “Likely Democrat.”93 In the state Senate, Democrats hold a simple majority, with 13 Democrats to 8 Republicans.94 The Democrats also hold a slim supermajority in the state Assembly, with 28 Democrats to 14 Republicans.95 New Hampshire One or both chambers of the Granite State’s legislature may shift from Republican to Democrat control in November.96 There is also some chance, although probably less, that incumbent Governor Chris Sununu (R) may not be re-elected and lose to former State Senator Molly Kelly (D).97 Kelly has said, “I do not believe that New Hampshire law enforcement's job is to do the job of federal immigration, to deal with immigration law[.]”98 New Hampshire governors serve only a two-year term but are not term-limited.99 A change in legislative party control alone might not lead to major changes from the status quo, but if combined with the governor’s office changing hands, could result in a significantly worse environment over the next two years.

89 “Justice Dept.’s Suit Against California,” New York Times, March 6, 2018, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/03/06/us/politics/document-justice-lawsuit-california.html 90 Michelle Rindels, “On the Record: The Policy Positions of Republican Attorney General Candidate Wes Duncan,” Nevada Independent, February 18, 2018, https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/on-the-record-the-policy-positions-of-republican-attorney-general-candidate-wes-duncan 91 Toni Richards, “Sanctuary Issue Looms Over Nevada Governor’s Race,” Nevada Watchdog, March 18, 2018, https://www.watchdog.org/nevada/sanctuary-state-issue-looms-over-nevada-governor-s-race/article_5316ebb6-2ad0-11e8-b1fc-3b1ebdec95ad.html 92 James Dehaven, “Meet Aaron Ford, the Rising Democratic State Lawmaker Running for Nevada Attorney General,” Reno Gazette-Journal, October 24, 2018, https://www.rgj.com/story/news/politics/2018/10/25/nevada-election-2018-aaron-ford-attorney-general/1755360002/ 93 Id. 94 Ballotpedia, “Nevada State Senate”, accessed on October 26, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/Nevada_State_Senate 95 Ballotpedia, “Nevada State Assembly”, accessed on October 26, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/Nevada_State_Assembly 96 Louis Jacobsen, “A Month Before Election Day, Democrats Poised for Legislative Gains,” Governing, October 8, 2018, http://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-2018-state-legislatures-democrats-gains.html 97 RealClearPolitics, “New Hampshire Governor - Sununu vs. Kelly,” accessed October 26, 2018, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/nh/new_hampshire_governor_sununu_vs_kelly-6561.html 98 Adam Sexton, “Gubernatorial candidate Molly Kelly takes questions from voters on Facebook,” WMUR-9, August 9, 2018, https://www.wmur.com/article/facebook-live-conversation-molly-kelly-candidate-for-governor/22687805 99 New Hampshire Constitution, Part II, Article 42, https://ballotpedia.org/Executive_Power_-_Governor,_New_Hampshire_Constitution#Article_42

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The legislature changing hands would likely lead to introduction, movement and possible passage of pro-illegal alien legislation resembling or even going beyond the state’s New England neighbors, particularly Vermont and Massachusetts. This could include drivers’ licenses and in-state tuition for illegal aliens, and some form of statewide sanctuary legislation. None of this currently exists in New Hampshire. A re-elected Governor Sununu would likely veto all or most of such legislation, while a future Governor Kelly would almost certainly sign it. Majorities by either party have been slim over the past few decades, so a future Democrat-controlled legislature would almost certainly not have the two-thirds supermajority100 in each chamber necessary to override a Sununu veto. There have been recent overrides, but they’ve received substantial bipartisan support,101 which seems much less likely in this context. Even if she lacked a friendly legislature, Governor Kelly could also take significant action favoring illegal aliens by executive action alone. In particular, with no current legislation in place to prevent it, Kelly easily could, and her past statements suggest that she probably would, order all state agencies (though not local ones) to adopt sanctuary policies, in a manner similar to the sanctuary executive orders issued by Governor Cuomo in New York102 and Governor Inslee in Washington State.103 The agencies this would most dramatically affect would be the New Hampshire State Police, which routinely cooperates with ICE and CBP, and the New Hampshire Department of Corrections, which currently honors immigration detainers, affording ICE the opportunity to pick up convicted illegal-alien felons from state prison after they complete their sentences. New Mexico The gubernatorial election to replace New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez (R) has narrowed in recent weeks, with Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) holding a small lead against Steve Pearce (R). A poll from Emerson College suggests that Grisham is ahead by two points, which is within the poll’s margin of error.104 The race could narrow even more after the candidates meet for a final debate.105 The gubernatorial race has become competitive for two reasons: illegal Immigration and a state budget surplus. Both candidates have strikingly different positions on both issues, namely over DACA recipients and turning New Mexico into a sanctuary state. Grisham believes in preventing local law enforcement from cooperating with federal immigration authorities while

100 New Hampshire Constitution, Part II, Article 44, https://ballotpedia.org/Executive_Power_-_Governor,_New_Hampshire_Constitution#Article_44 101 Annie Ropeik, “Legislators Narrowly Override Sununu's Biomass Veto, But Fall Short On Net Metering,” New Hampshire Public Radio, September 13, 2018, http://www.nhpr.org/post/legislators-narrowly-override-sununus-biomass-veto-fall-short-net-metering#stream/0 102 State of New York, Office of the Governor, Executive Orders No. 170 (September 15, 2017), https://www.governor.ny.gov/sites/governor.ny.gov/files/atoms/files/EO_ percent23_170.pdf and No. 170.1 (April 25, 2018), https://www.governor.ny.gov/sites/governor.ny.gov/files/atoms/old-files/EO_170.1.pdf 103 State of Washington, Office of the Governor, Executive Order 17-01 (February 23, 2017), http://www.governor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/exe_order/eo_17-01.pdf 104 Emerson College, “New Mexico Poll”, August 20, 2018, https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/Files/Academics/ecp-pr-nm-8.19.18.pdf 105 William Davis, “Candidates Spar in Final New Mexico Gubernatorial Debate,” Daily Caller, October 25, 2018, https://dailycaller.com/2018/10/25/candidates-new-mexico-gubernatorial-debate/

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supporting a pathway to citizenship for DACA recipients.106 By contrast, Pearce supports prohibitions on sanctuary cities.107 If Grisham becomes governor, then it’s reasonable to assume that she will work with Attorney General Hector Balderas (D) to challenge President Trump’s immigration agenda in court, or collaborate with the Democratic-controlled legislature to enact open borders legislation, including state sanctuary laws. If Pearce is able to mount a surprise victory, then it’s likely that he will take a conciliatory approach towards the legislature and avoid any controversial action during his first term, including those on immigration. The legislature is unlikely to see any significant changes after the election. Legislative races in both chambers are projected as “Safe Democrat.”108 In the state Senate, Democrats hold a simple majority, with 26 Democrats to 16 Republicans.109 Likewise, the Democrats hold a simple majority In the House of Representatives, with 39 Democrats to 31 Republicans.110 New York There is a good chance the New York State Senate changes hands to the Democrats in November, giving Governor Andrew Cuomo (D) his long sought-after majority in both chambers111 and putting him in essentially unchecked control in Albany. Republicans control the upper chamber thanks to one Democrat, Senator Simcha Felder, who caucuses with them.112 As City & State New York reports, “[f]lipping a single net [Senate] seat from red to blue in November would put Democrats in control of the entire state government for the first time since 2010.”113 This would likely turn the Empire State into a very prolific producer of reckless pro-illegal alien legislation, perhaps as much as California. If that happens, every open borders and pro-illegal immigration bill introduced in the New York Assembly in the past two years can be expected to be revived in some form in the next two, pass both chambers and head to Cuomo’s desk for near-certain signature. These most notably include: statewide sanctuary legislation;114 legislation to attempt to keep immigration authorities

106 “NM Gubernatorial Candidate Michelle Lujan Grisham,” Albuquerque Journal, accessed on October 26, 2018, https://www.abqjournal.com/1167063/nm-gubernatorial-candidate-michelle-lujan-grisham.html 107 Sun-News Reports, “Pearce Votes to Penalize Sanctuary Cities,” Silver City Sun-News, June 30, 2017, https://www.scsun-news.com/story/news/politics/2017/06/30/pearce-votes-penalize-sanctuary-cities/444568001/ 108 Louis Jacobsen, “A Month Before Election Day, Democrats Poised for Legislative Gains,” Governing, October 8, 2018, http://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-2018-state-legislatures-democrats-gains.html 109 Ballotpedia, “New Mexico State Senate,” accessed on October 26, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/New_Mexico_State_Senate 110 Ballotpedia, “New Mexico House of Representatives,” accessed on October 26, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/New_Mexico_House_of_Representatives 111 Samar Khurshid, “Cuomo Begins Push to Flip State Senate and House of Representatives,” Gotham Gazette, October 3, 2018, http://www.gothamgazette.com/state/7969-cuomo-begins-push-to-flip-state-senate-and-house-of-representatives 112 Rebecca C. Lewis, “Updated: A guide to the 2018 state Senate elections,” City & State New York, October 15, 2018, https://www.cityandstateny.com/articles/politics/campaigns-elections/2018-new-york-senate-elections-guide.html 113 Id. 114 New York State Assembly, Assembly Bill 3049 (2017), accessed on October 25, 2018, https://assembly.state.ny.us/leg/?bn=AB3049&term=2017&Summary=Y&Actions=Y&Committee percent2526nbspVotes=Y&Floor percent2526nbspVotes=Y&Memo=Y&Text=Y

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out of the state’s courthouses;115 drivers’ licenses for illegal aliens;116 eliminating lawful immigration status as a prerequisite for various professional licenses;117 criminalizing threats to report immigration status;118 and perhaps even statewide single-payer health care covering illegal aliens,119 among others. North Carolina While North Carolina does not have any statewide elections this year, it is possible for the state legislature to experience some political changes in November. Republican lawmakers currently hold supermajorities in both chambers, which allows them to sustain an override veto against Governor Roy Cooper (D). However, if Democrats are able to win a net gain of six seats in the state Senate,120 then Republicans will lose their supermajority in the upper chamber. Likewise, Republicans will lose their supermajority in the House of Representatives if Democrats win a net gain of four seats in the lower chamber.121 If Republicans lose their supermajorities in either chamber, then it will be difficult for the legislature to enact immigration legislation until 2020 at the earliest. This includes prohibitions on in-state tuition and professional licenses for illegal aliens, as well as a potential 287(g) partnership between the North Carolina Department of Corrections and U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Ohio The Ohio House of Representatives is vulnerable to Republican losses in November thanks to scandals and leadership squabbles. But the Republicans hold a supermajority in the House, with 67 Republicans to 32 Democrats122, so it’s likely to outlast even a sizeable Democratic wave on Election Day. Republicans also hold a supermajority in the state Senate, with 24 Republicans to 9 Democrats,123 and is unlikely to lose any seats to Democratic challengers. Only half the seats in the state Senate are up in any cycle, which makes it less susceptible to wave conditions.

115 New York State Assembly, Assembly Bill 11013 (2018), accessed on October 25, 2018, https://assembly.state.ny.us/leg/?bn=AB11013&term=2017&Summary=Y&Actions=Y&Committee percent2526nbspVotes=Y&Floor percent2526nbspVotes=Y&Memo=Y&Text=Y 116 New York State Assembly, Assembly Bill 2477 (2017), accessed on October 25, 2018, https://assembly.state.ny.us/leg/?bn=AB2477&term=2017&Summary=Y&Actions=Y&Committee percent2526nbspVotes=Y&Floor percent2526nbspVotes=Y&Memo=Y&Text=Y 117 New York State Assembly, Assembly Bill 6788 (2017), accessed on October 25, 2018, https://assembly.state.ny.us/leg/?bn=AB6788&term=2017&Summary=Y&Actions=Y&Committee percent2526nbspVotes=Y&Floor percent2526nbspVotes=Y&Memo=Y&Text=Y 118 New York State Assembly, Assembly Bill 6728 (2017), accessed on October 25, 2018, https://assembly.state.ny.us/leg/?bn=AB6728&term=2017&Summary=Y&Actions=Y&Committee percent2526nbspVotes=Y&Floor percent2526nbspVotes=Y&Memo=Y&Text=Y 119 New York State Assembly, Assembly Bill 4738 (2017), accessed on October 25, 2018, https://assembly.state.ny.us/leg/?bn=AB4738&term=2017&Summary=Y&Actions=Y&Committee percent2526nbspVotes=Y&Floor percent2526nbspVotes=Y&Memo=Y&Text=Y 120 Ballotpedia, “North Carolina State Senate,” accessed on October 26, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/North_Carolina_State_Senate 121 Ballotpedia, “North Carolina House of Representatives,” accessed on October 26, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/North_Carolina_House_of_Representatives 122 Ballotpedia, “Ohio House of Representatives,” accessed on October 25, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio_House_of_Representatives 123 Ballotpedia, “Ohio State Senate,” accessed on October 25, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio_State_Senate

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The governor’s office and attorney general’s office are open seats and have strong Democratic candidates vying to fill them. Gubernatorial candidate Richard Cordray (D), a former state attorney general and director of the U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, currently holds a 2.7-point lead against current Ohio Attorney General and former U.S. Senator Mike DeWine (R), according to RealClearPolitics.124 Similarly, former federal prosecutor Steven Dettelbach (D) holds a six point lead against State Auditor Dave Yost (R) in the attorney general’s race, according to a poll by Suffolk University.125 If Cordray and Dettelbach are elected, then it is likely that the legislature will work to counter any executive action taken by them. But it would be difficult for the legislature to enact pro-enforcement immigration laws without Cordray’s input, unless it sustains its supermajorities in both chambers. If DeWine happens to win, then it’s unlikely that he will support E-Verify or anti-sanctuary laws, given his record as a state senator that supported guest-worker programs with a pathway to citizenship for them. Oregon In a deep-blue state that has not elected a Republican governor since 1982,126 Governor Kate Brown’s (D) re-election should be virtually guaranteed, but is not. While moderate State Representative Knute Buehler (R-Bend) has made significant inroads in the state that has 260,000 more Democrats that Republicans, the race has turned into a referendum on Governor Brown’s leadership.127 This race is currently considered a toss-up with Governor Brown favored 49 to 45 percent according to a recent poll.128 Governor Brown has fought President Trump’s (who is unpopular in Oregon) immigration agenda since he took office. She signed an executive order expanding Oregon’s sanctuary law to forbid state agencies and employees from using resources to help federal immigration officials locate or apprehend those individuals in Oregon illegally. She also pushed for, and signed House Bill 3464,129 which prohibits all “public bodies” in the state from sharing or inquiring about a person’s immigration status. Finally, Governor Brown opposes Measure 105, which repeals Oregon’s sanctuary law. Rep. Buehler has been an inconsistent voice when it comes to immigration issues. He opposed legislation that would have given health care benefits to children living in Oregon illegally. He said he supported the original intent of Oregon’s sanctuary law to prevent racial profiling. However, he is voting for Measure 105 because he says the law is no longer needed because

124 RealClearPolitics, “Ohio Governor – DeWine vs. Cordray,” accessed on October 25, 2018, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/oh/ohio_governor_dewine_vs_cordray-6426.html 125 Suffolk University Political Research Center, “Ohio Governor and US Senate General Election,” October 12, 2018, https://www.suffolk.edu/academics/10740.php 126 Nigel Jaquiss, “Washington Post Puts Oregon Governor’s Race in National Context,” Willamette Week, September 17, 2018, https://www.wweek.com/news/2018/09/10/washington-post-puts-oregon-governors-race-in-national-context/ 127 Id. 128 KGW Staff, “Poll shows tight Oregon governor's race,” KGW NBC 8, October 9, 2018, https://www.kgw.com/article/news/politics/poll-shows-tight-oregon-governors-race/283-602258849 See also RealClearPolitics, “Oregon Governor - Buehler vs. Brown,” accessed on October 30, 2018 129 Oregon State Legislature, House Bill 3464 (2017), accessed on November 1, 2018, https://olis.leg.state.or.us/liz/2017R1/Measures/Overview/HB3464

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of a 2015 bill that expanded prohibitions on racial profiling. Buehler also opposed HB 3464, prohibiting immigration status inquiries and information-sharing. The legislature will remain in Democrat hands and they may gain a couple of seats. If Gov. Brown is re-elected, it is likely Oregon will continue to pass legislation that protects illegal aliens. If Rep. Buehler is elected and vetoes bills putting illegal aliens first, then it is possible but unlikely the legislature could override the veto. In Oregon, a two-thirds supermajority in both the House and Senate are required for an override.130 Currently, the House has 35 Democrats to 25 Republicans131 and the Senate has 17 Democrats to 13 Republicans.132 Pennsylvania Unlike other states in the Rust Belt, Pennsylvania is unlikely to see any major changes to its state government. Legislative districts are heavily gerrymandered and favor Republican candidates outright, so Democrats will only be able to make modest gains in each chamber should a blue wave form. Otherwise, Republicans will hold their current seats without experiencing any changes. Republicans hold a supermajority in the state Senate, with 33 Republicans to 16 Democrats133, while also holding a simple majority in the House of Representatives, with 122 Republicans to 80 Democrats.134 Incumbent Governor Tom Wolf (D) is expected to be re-elected easily to a second four-year term. He currently holds a 16.8 point lead against Scott Wagner (R), according to RealClearPolitics.135 If Wolf is reelected, then he may take action to curb immigration enforcement, including the potential closure of the Berks County Residential Center,136 which contracts with ICE to house illegal aliens in detention pending immigration proceedings. Given the lack of turnover in the legislature, it’s unlikely that the current political dynamics will change in either chamber. The legislature could be persuaded to enact more immigration laws, but Governor Wolf is likely to veto any measure that comes to his desk. And given the size of the Republican majority in each chamber, it’s unlikely that they will be able to sustain a veto override in the upcoming session. Rhode Island Neither chamber of the Ocean State’s legislature is likely to change hands in November, but there appears to be some chance that Cranston Mayor Allan Fung (R) could unseat incumbent Governor Gina Raimondo (D), in a rematch of their 2014 contest. RealClearPolitics ranks the

130 Oregon Constitution, Article V, Section 15b, https://ballotpedia.org/Article_V,_Oregon_Constitution#Section_15b See also Oregon Legislature, “How Bills Become Law,” https://www.oregonlegislature.gov/citizen_engagement/Pages/How-an-Idea-Becomes-Law.aspx 131 Ballotpedia, “Oregon House of Representatives,” accessed October 25, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_House_of_Representatives 132 Ballotpedia, “Oregon State Senate,” accessed October 25, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_State_Senate 133 Ballotpedia, “Pennsylvania State Senate,” accessed on October 25, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_State_Senate 134 Ballotpedia, “Pennsylvania House of Representatives,” accessed on October 25, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/Pennsylvania_House_of_Representatives 135 RealClearPolitics, “Pennsylvania Governor – Wagner vs. Wolf,” accessed on October 25, 2018, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/pa/pennsylvania_governor_wagner_vs_wolf-6542.html 136Colin Deppen and Sarah Anne Hughes, “Why PA’s Controversial Berks Detention Center for Immigrant Families Is Still Open” Billy Penn, June 22, 2018, https://billypenn.com/2018/06/22/why-pas-controversial-detention-center-for-immigrant-families-is-still-open/

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race as “Leans Dem”137 and Raimondo has lead by double digits in some polls, but others have shown it tighter.138 This is of particular note because Fung is an outspoken critic of sanctuary policies and Rhode Island’s status as a sanctuary state is due solely to executive action, namely a 2014 policy directive by previous Governor Lincoln Chafee (D)139 to the Rhode Island Department of Corrections (RIDOC) instructing them to ignore immigration detainers under most circumstances. This directive has a disproportionate effect in Rhode Island compared to what it would have in most states because Rhode Island has no county jails, so everyone in custody either pretrial or serving a sentence is housed by RIDOC. An incoming Governor Fung could rescind the Chafee directive on his first day in office, requiring RIDOC to start honoring detainers again. As Governor, Fung might also seek to reverse the state’s policy on in-state tuition for illegal aliens. Rhode Island has no legislation on the subject. Instead, since 2011 it has granted in-state tuition to certain illegal aliens by administrative policy.140 The policy was adopted by the board of governors for higher education, which in 2013 was merged into the larger board of education. Numerous bills have been introduced in the intervening years to enact the policy into statute, but none have passed both chambers of the legislature. Therefore, whether by executive order or by filling vacancies on the board of education as they arise and encouraging the board to rescind the previous policy, Fung could possibly end in-state tuition for illegal aliens in Rhode Island without the need for legislation. The board’s chair serves at the pleasure of the governor while the other members serve staggered terms. While Fung would probably not be able to unilaterally reverse the state’s course on other issues, he would likely be a break on expanding them any further. For instance, as of December 3 of this year, Rhode Island will issue drivers’ licenses to DACA recipients,141 but not to other illegal aliens as, for instance, California, Illinois and Maryland currently do. It is possible the legislature would seek to enact the current executive policies into statute, and otherwise to continue to expand benefits and protections for illegal aliens. Fung would likely veto such legislation. Rhode Island requires only a three-fifths rather than a two-thirds supermajority142 to override a veto: the Democrats currently control the House of

137 RealClearPolitics, “Rhode Island Governor - Fung vs. Raimondo,” accessed on October 25, 2018, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/ri/rhode_island_governor_fung_vs_raimondo-6544.html 138 Edward Fitzpatrick, “RWU/WPRI 12 Poll Shows R.I. Governor's Race a Dead Heat,” Roger Williams University, August 6, 2018, accessed October 25, 2018, https://www.rwu.edu/news/news-archive/rwuwpri-12-poll-shows-ri-governors-race-dead-heat 139 State of Rhode Island, Office of the Governor, ICE Detainer Policy (July 17, 2014), http://www.catrustact.org/uploads/2/5/4/6/25464410/rhode_island_7.17.2014_ice_detainer_policy_and_letter.pdf 140 Erika Niedowski, “R.I. education board OK’s in-state tuition for undocumented students,” Associated Press, September 27, 2011, http://archive.boston.com/news/local/rhode_island/articles/2011/09/27/ri_education_board_oks_in_state_tuition_for_undocumented_students/?camp=pm 141 Rhode Island General Assembly, House Bill 7982 Substitute B (2018), accessed October 25, 2018, http://webserver.rilin.state.ri.us/BillText/BillText18/HouseText18/H7982B.pdf 142 Rhode Island Constitution, Article IX, Section 14, https://ballotpedia.org/Article_IX,_Rhode_Island_Constitution#Section_14

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Representatives 64 to 11143 and the Senate 33 to 4,144 both far more than three-fifths, but that may not reflect the same numbers after November and it’s far from certain that all Democrats would support an override. The fact that bills favoring illegal aliens have frequently failed to get all the way through the state’s legislative process suggests many of the legislature’s more moderate Democratic members may not have an appetite to push the issue. Vermont Incumbent Governor Phil Scott (R) is expected to be re-elected easily145 to a second two-year term.146 However, he faces of losing so many Republican members of the legislature that his vetoes could easily be overridden.147 While Scott is very moderate to weak on immigration enforcement—even signing the Green Mountain State’s somewhat narrow sanctuary bill148 into law in 2017—a more solidly Democrat-controlled legislature could still be emboldened to pass much more extreme pro-illegal alien measures if they no longer feared a veto. The Vermont State Senate is currently divided between 21 Democrats, 7 Republicans, and two members of the Vermont Progressive Party (VPP).149 With the VPP members voting with the Democrats, this is already well more than the two-thirds supermajority necessary to override a veto150. Where the change could come is in the Vermont House of Representatives, where the 81 Democrats together with seven VPP members and seven Independents do not quite currently outnumber the 53 Republicans by a two-thirds margin.151 Currently, individual state agencies and local governments have widely differing policies: for example, the Vermont State Police do not ask about immigration status except under limited circumstances,152 but the Vermont department of corrections honors immigration detainers.153 A 143 Ballotpedia, “Rhode Island House of Representatives,” accessed October 25, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/Rhode_Island_House_of_Representatives 144 Ballotpedia, “Rhode Island State Senate,” accessed October 25, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/Rhode_Island_State_Senate 145 RealClearPolitics, “Vermont Governor - Scott vs. Hallquist,” accessed on October 25, 2018, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/vt/vermont_governor_scott_vs_hallquist-6657.html 146 Vermont Constitution, Chapter II, Section 43, https://ballotpedia.org/Elections;_Officers;_Terms_of_Office,_Vermont_Constitution#Section_43 147 Louis Jacobsen, “A Month Before Election Day, Democrats Poised for Legislative Gains,” Governing, October 8, 2018, http://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-2018-state-legislatures-democrats-gains.html (“Democrats will hold on to both chambers in Vermont. The more pressing question is whether Republicans will lose enough races to lose their ability to sustain a veto by GOP Gov. Phil Scott.”) 148 Vermont General Assembly, Senate Bill 79 (Act 5) (2017), accessed on October 25, 2018, https://legislature.vermont.gov/bill/status/2018/S.79 149 Ballotpedia, “Vermont State Senate,” accessed October 25, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/Vermont_State_Senate 150 Vermont Constitution, Chapter II, Section 11, https://ballotpedia.org/Legislative_Department,_Vermont_Constitution#Section_11 151 Ballotpedia, “Vermont House of Representatives,” accessed October 25, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/Vermont_House_of_Representatives 152 Vermont State Police, Rules & Regulations VSP-DIR-301, “Bias Free Policing,” November 4, 2011, https://legislature.vermont.gov/assets/Documents/2014/WorkGroups/House percent20Judiciary/Bias-Free percent20Policing percent20- percent20amended percent20onto percent20S.184/W~Tom percent20L percent60Esperance~Rules percent20and percent20Regulations, percent20Bias percent20Free percent20Policing~3-13-2014.pdf 153 Jess Aloe, “VT corrections doesn't track ICE enforcement requests,” Burlington Free Press, December 27, 2016, https://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/entertainment/2016/12/27/vermont-corrections-doesnt-track-ice-

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Vermont legislature with veto-proof supermajorities in both chambers could likely see bills to vastly expand the state’s sanctuary law to something comparable to California, Illinois or Oregon, as well as to mandate in-state tuition for illegal aliens statewide, which is currently not specifically addressed by state law. Wisconsin Wisconsinites could potentially see an upset in their gubernatorial election. State Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Evers (D) narrowly leads incumbent Governor Scott Walker (R) by 3.6 points, according to RealClearPolitics.154 This is likely a result of Walker’s low approval ratings. Walker’s approval and disapproval ratings among all Wisconsinites is 50 percent and 42 percent respectively, according to Morning Consult.155 The attorney general’s race is very close as well. Incumbent Brad Schimel (R) is locked in a competitive race against former federal prosecutor Josh Kaul (D) where he is ahead by four points, according to a poll by Marquette Law School.156 Of course, this lead is within the poll’s margin of error, effectively making the race a statistical tie. It remains unclear as to whether Kaul will be able to cover enough ground by November to win the election. Democrats are also optimistic about their chances in the state Senate, where they need only a net gain of two seats to take control of the chamber. By contrast, the GOP’s margin in the state assembly is large enough to withstand any modest gains by Democratic challengers. Currently, Republicans hold a simple majority in the state Senate, with 38 Republicans to 15 Democrats,157 while also holding a simple majority in the state assembly, with 64 Republicans to 35 Democrats.158 If Republicans are able to sustain their majorities in the legislature while also securing a third term for Governor Walker, then it is possible that some immigration measures could be addressed in the upcoming session. Some of these measures include E-Verify and anti-sanctuary laws.

enforcement-requests/95625672/ (“Department of Corrections Deputy Commissioner Cheryl Elovirta said the department would comply with the [detainer] requests.”) 154 RealClearPolitics, “Wisconsin Governor – Walker vs. Evers,” accessed on October 25, 2018, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/governor/wi/wisconsin_governor_walker_vs_evers-6606.html 155 Cameron Easley, “America’s Most and Least Popular Governors,” Morning Consult, October 10, 2018. 156 Marquette University Law School, “Marquette Law School Poll: October 3-7, 2018,” https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/MLSP49ToplinesLV.pdf 157 Ballotpedia, “Wisconsin State Senate,” accessed on October 25, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/Wisconsin_State_Senate 158 Ballotpedia, “Wisconsin State Assembly,” accessed on October 25, 2018, https://ballotpedia.org/Wisconsin_State_Assembly