miercoles ecpa
TRANSCRIPT
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Cambios climáticos y análisis de variabilidad variabilidad y incertidumbre incertidumbre para la gestión sosteniblesostenible de cuencas de montaña
Ana P. BarrosDuke University
Arequipa, March 18, 2013
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gestión sostenible del Aguasostenible del Agua
Quando Quanta Adonde Como
Variabilidad Incertidumbre
Lluvia
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Cambios climáticos y Variabilidad
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Milankovich Cycles
Δ: 0 ~ 800 years lag with temperature precedes CO2
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Lluvia en Montañas y InteraccionesEntre la Tierra y la Atmosfera
*
*
* **** *
*
**
**
Zc
**
**
Muy intensa,de curta duración
PR
Evapotranspiración 25-50%
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3000 BC
Cedars of Lebanon , NRCS99
Interacciones entre la tierra y la atmosfera ventilan al paisaje y puedentener un gran impacto en la formación de nubes e llluvia a escalas multiples, l que a vez depende de la meteorologia regional.
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RegolithSpring
Fractures
Groundwater Flow
Karstic
Bedrock
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gestión sostenible del Aguasostenible del Agua
Quando Quanta Adonde Como
Variabilidad Incertidumbre
Lluvia
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Variaciones Naturales en los Acuíferos
“Gaining” Streams
“Cursos Ganadores”
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Dry river
Dry well
Dry well
Near Dry well
Variaciones Con IrrigaciónY en tiempo de sequia
“Loosing” Streams
“Cursos perdedores”
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Renaissance
Y de un punto de vista regional, local que significa? Revolución
Industrial
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Ciclo HidrológicoCiclo Hidrológico
Evaporation
10%
Evapo-Transpiration
PrecipitationPrecipitation
RunoffRunoff
Soil MoistureSoil Moisture
70%
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Processos de Formación de Processos de Formación de LluviaLluvia
Temperature TTd
Cooling / Lifting
Clausius-Clapeyron Clausius-Clapeyron
MicrophysicsMicrophysics
Fog, Snow & RainfallFog, Snow & Rainfall
vapor pressure
Local Evapotranspiration / CCN
Large-Scale Moisture Convergence
e
saturation vapor pressure
CloudsClouds
Heating
(1)
(2)(3)
September Rainfall Totals by Year
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
350.0
2008 2009
Year
Rai
nfa
ll T
ota
l (m
m)
AMO
an~NiLa
Appalachian Mountains
Variabilidad Interanual
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Hydrometeorology of Mountainous RegionsMaritime vs Continental Tropical Monsoon RegimesMid-Latitude Seasonal RegimesGlobal to Regional Scale Controls
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20/6/2011 5.23 PM
7/6/2011 7:09 AM Great Smoky Mountains, USA
Parque Nacional De Manu , Peru
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Sediment sorting?Vegetation?Where does the water go?
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USGS
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Daytime Energy BudgetDaytime Energy Budget
Rn
LhSh
Gh
Net Radiation
Latent heat
Sensible heat
Ground Heat
HeatAdvection
RH >>T <B <
RH <<T >
B >
LandLandBreezeBreeze
h
h
L
SB
Bowen Ratio
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April 2000
August 2000
MODIS Visible Imagery
Hidrometeorologia and Ecohidrologia
Annual Cycle
Note el ordenamento de las nubes Con el terreno y la vegetacion permanente (florestas)
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The Westward March of the Diurnal Cycle
Bushan and Barros, 2007
12 km – 4km – 1km Evaporation 2-5 mm/dayEvaporation 2-5 mm/dayBiogenic AerosolBiogenic Aerosol
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USGS report
California – Consequencias de Irrigación
Subsidencia
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Sistemas de Observación son essenciales
Datos de SatéliteSistemas de tierra
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Global Precipitation Mission MeasurementGlobal Precipitation Mission MeasurementTropical Rainfall Measurement MissionTropical Rainfall Measurement Mission
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPMhttp://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/TRMM
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South American Monsoon
Datos son disponibles para todo el mondo sin costo y acesso fácil
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Warm Rain
“Embedded”Convective
Daytime
Central Andes
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Moisture transport – Andes
Role of vegetation/ET in “harvesting” atmospheric moisture???
Vertically integrated moisture flux
Verano Invierno
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First Observations Central Andes
San Pedro, Andes
20122011Rio Kospiñata
Financiado por la NSF
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TRMM-PR
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(Image: NASA)
GPM Core Satellite
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Adapt. Lemos 2011
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Adapatación ( la base científica)
Sistemas de Observación
Integración: COMO Funciona el Paisaje?
Evaluación dinamica de recursos y Gestión de riesgos Informada
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