Migration froM Ukraine to Poland the trend stabilises

Marta Jaroszewicz

Migration froM Ukraine to Poland the trend stabilises

Marta Jaroszewicz

WarsaWOCtOber 2018

© Copyright by Ośrodek studiów Wschodnichim. Marka Karpia / Centre for eastern studies

COntent editOradam eberhardt

editOrhalina Kowalczyk

CO-OperatiOnMałgorzata Zarębska, anna Łabuszewska

translatiOnJim todd

FiGUresWojciech Mańkowski, piotr bogdański

GraphiC desiGn para-bUCh

phOtOGraph On COVerOleksandr berezko/shutterstock.com

dtpGroupMedia

pUblisherośrodek Studiów Wschodnich im. Marka karpia Centre for eastern studies

ul. Koszykowa 6a, Warsaw, polandphone + 48 /22/ 525 80 00Fax: + 48 /22/ 525 80 40osw.waw.pl

isbn 978-83-65827-29-6

Contents

THESES /5

I. a GlObal phenOMenOn, bUt a perManent One? /6

II. MiGratiOn FrOM UKraine in the liGht OF the neW rUles On eMplOyinG FOreiGners /8

III. MiGrant stOCKs /10

IV. MiGratiOn tO pOland in the liGht OF UKrainian researCh /12

V. Other tarGet COUntries FOr UKrainian MiGratiOn /15

VI. prOspeCts /17

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THESES

• TheincreasedwaveofmigrationfromUkrainetoPolandwhichbeganin2014isslowlybeginningtodecelerate.Thismigrationisstillmainlytem-poraryinnature,anditisdifficulttoassesstowhatextentitmaybecomefully residential. Probably over the passage of time, the current circularmigrationmodelwillstopattractingnewpeople.However,PolandremainsthemainEUcountryinwhichUkrainianswork,becauseofseveralcom-petitiveadvantages:extensivemigrationnetworks,aliberalprocedureforlegalisingresidenceandwork(forshortperiods).Inaddition,despitethefactthatthesalariesmigrantsearninPolandaresmallcomparedtocoun-triesinthewestoftheEU,thelowlivingcostsallowforregularandrela-tivelyhighremittancestoUkraine.

• Due to the predominantly temporary character of the migration, it isdifficult to estimate the exact number of Ukrainian migrants residentin Poland. According to data from the Ministry of Family, Labour andSocialPolicy(MRPiPS)1, thenumberofUkrainiancitizenswhohadob-tainedvaliddeclarationsofintenttoemployaforeignerby31December2017numbered517,000people,whereas208,000Ukrainianshadaworkpermit. To this number should be added the group of around 100,000Ukrainian citizens who are permanently resident in Poland and do notneedaworkpermit,orwhoarestudyingorlivinginPolandforreasonsother than work. In total, this gives a number of around 900,000 mi-grantsfromUkraineresidentinPolandattheendof2017.Bytheendof2018,thesenumbersarelikelytobelowerduetotheintroductionofnewrulesfortheemploymentofforeigners.

• Poland’sneighbouringcountrieshavestartedtoopenuptheirlabourmar-ketstocitizensofUkrainetoalimiteddegree;forexample,theCzechRe-publichasincreaseditsquotasforlabourmigrants,andHungaryhasintro-ducedaneasierprocedureforacquiringcitizenship.OnlyinGermanydoUkrainiansremainmarginalamonggroupsofforeignworkers.NofurtherrapidincreaseinmigrationfromUkraineispossible,duetothecountry’sdramaticdemographicsituation,theproblemsonlocallabourmarketsinwesternUkraine,andthefallingnumbersofpeopleofworkingage.

1 TheauthorthankstheMinistryofFamily,LabourandSocialPolicy'sLabourMarketDepart-mentforthestatisticsprovided.

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I. A globAl pHEnomEnon, buT A pErmAnEnT onE?

AccordingtothelatestInternational Migration Outlook 2018,publishedannuallybytheOECD,in2017Polandbecameagloballeaderintheinflowofforeign,sea-sonal,short-termworkforces(toagreaterdegreethantheUnitedStates)2.ThisisunusualbecausePolandhasneverbeenacountryofimmigration,andindeedstillremainsacountryofemigration.Thecurrentinfluxofshort-termmigrantshasbeenpossibleduetothespecificconfluenceof ‘pull’factors(averyliberalsystemfortheemploymentofforeignersinPolandgearedtoonegeographicaldirection–theEasternPartnershipcountries)with‘push’factors:thesituationofshockinUkraineaftertheoutbreakofwarandeconomiccollapsein2014-15.Inaddition,manyUkrainianmigrantsleftRussiaforPolandduetotheRussianaggression.OtherimportantfactorsattractingUkrainiancitizenstoPolandarethelowtravelcosts,theabilitytomaintainfamilytiesinUkraine,extensivemi-grationnetworks,andsimilaritiesoflanguageandculturalcloseness.Forthisreason,oneofthetermsgiventothecurrentwaveofmigrationfromUkrainetoPoland is ‘localmobility’,meaningaspecificsystemof frequentshort-termjourneystoPoland,andwhereat thesametimespendingwithinthecountryofresidenceislimited,andlivingactivitiesareconcentratedinUkraine,asop-posedtomigrationintheclassicalsense,whichassumesapermanentchangeofthecentreoflifeactivities.Thisconglomerateoffactorshasresultedinanotice-ableworldwideboomintheshort-termmigrationsector.

Thelargest inflowofUkrainianstoPoland(asmanifested inthenumberofemployers’declarationspermittingshort-termwork3andworkpermits)wasrecorded in2014-16,whentherateof increase in thenumberofdocumentsissuedrosebyafactorofseveraldozen,oftenby100%ormoreannually.How-everin2017,incomparisontothepreviousyear,therewasalreadyasmaller,albeitstillsignificant increaseof40%inthenumberofemployers’declara-tionsissued(from1.3millionto1.8million,seeFigure1).Aslightlygreaterincreaseinthenumberofworkpermitsissuedwasvisible,althoughtheshare

2 International Migration Outlook 2018,OECD,https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/social-issues-mi-gration-health/international-migration-outlook-2018_migr_outlook-2018-en#page1

3 Since2008,theso-calledemployers’declarationsystemhasbeenineffect,underwhichaUkrainiancitizenwhowantstemporaryemploymentinPoland(i.e.foraperiodnotex-ceeding6monthsoverthenext12months)isexemptfromhavingtoobtainaworkpermit.Itisenoughtohaveadeclarationofintenttoemploy,whichthefutureemployerregistersinthedistrictlabouroffice;theworkwillbecarriedoutonthebasisofawrittencontractonthetermsspecifiedinthedeclaration.Thenumberofdeclarationsdoesnotequalthenum-berofmigrants;onepersoncanhaveseveraldeclarations.

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ofUkrainiancitizensamongtheforeignerswhoobtainedworkpermitsinPo-land (which had been rising for five years) has been halted (see Figure 2)4.2018 will probably see a further slowdown in the pace of growth, althoughduetosignificantchangesinthelegalregulations,thisdatawillbedifficulttocomparewiththestatisticsfrompreviousyears(seebelow).

Figure 1. Number of declarations of intent to employ issued to Ukrainian citizens in 2013-17

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

declarations (thousands)

217.571

372.346

762.700

1262.845

1714.891

Source: Ministry of Family, Labour and Social Policy

Figure 2. Number of work permits issued to citizens of Ukraine in 2013-17

0

50

100

150

200

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

work permits (thousands)

20.416 20.945

50.465

103.208

192.547

Source: Ministry of Family, Labour and Social Policy

4 DatafromtheMinistryofFamily,LabourandSocialPolicy.

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II. mIgrATIon from ukrAInE In THE lIgHT of THE nEw rulES on EmployIng forEIgnErS

On1January2018,significantlegalchangesconcerningtheemploymentoffor-eignersinPolandcameintoforce.Firstofall,thecategoryofworkthatcanbeperformedonthebasisofthedeclarationofintentiontoemployaforeignerhasbeennarrowed.Thiscurrentlycoversalltypesofworkthatarenotseasonal,andcanbecarriedoutbycitizensofEaPcountriesforuptosixmonthswith-ina12-monthperiod.Therehavealsobeenchangestothesystemofgrantingdeclarations:afeefortheirissueisnowbeingcharged,andtheemployermustprovidenotificationthattheemployeetowhomheissuedthestatementhasac-tuallytakenupajob.Anewtypeofworkpermithasalsobeenintroduced:thisisaseasonalworkpermitwhichentitlesanyforeigner(andnotjustnationalsofEaPcountries)toworkforaperiodofnomorethanninemonthsperyear.

AccordingtoMRPiPSdataforthefirsthalfof2018,thenumberofdeclarationsreceivedbydistrictlabourofficeswas820,000,althoughonlyabout756,000wereenteredintheappropriateregister.Thesecoveredabout687,000foreign-ers(92%ofwhomarecitizensofUkraine).However,thenumberofpeoplewhoactuallytookupworkonthebasisofthestatementswassmallerbecause,ac-cordingtotheverificationsystem,inthecaseofaboutathirdofthedeclara-tionsissuedandregisteredtheforeignerhadnottakenuptheposition.Inad-dition,someofthestatementscouldalreadyhavebeenissuedbutnotyetcomeintoeffect.ThismeansthattherealnumberofUkrainiancitizensworkinginthefirsthalfof2018onthebasisofthedeclarationsofemploymentamountedtooverhalfamillion.Atthesametime,around157,000applicationsforsea-sonal work permits were submitted to district labour offices; these coveredabout 147,000 foreigners (98% of whom were Ukrainian citizens). However,only58,000permitswereissued,whichisprobablyduetothefactthatthisisanewtypeofpermitinadministrativeuse,towhichbothofficesandmigrantsmustbecomeaccustomed.BytheendofJune2018,over110,000‘classic’workpermitshadalsobeenissuedtoUkrainiancitizens.Thisshowsthattherewasaslightlyhigherlevelofinterestinobtainingthistypeofpermitthanlastyear.

Thenewregulationsmakeitdifficulttocomparethecurrentdataonthenum-berofdeclarationsissuedwiththosegrantedbefore1January2018.Theprevi-ousprocedure(whichdidnothaveaproperverificationsystem)didnotindi-catethenumberofUkrainiancitizensactuallyworkinginPoland,butrathershowedthescaleoftheirinterestintakingupemployment.Interpretingandcomparingthedatafor2018mayalsobedifficultbecauseanewtypeofseasonal

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workpermithasbeencreated,andalsobecausethe‘new’statementshavedif-ferentvalidityperiods.Nevertheless,apreliminaryanalysisofthedatacur-rentlyavailableshowsthatthenumberofemployers’declarationsandpermitsforseasonalworkissuedinthefirsthalfof2018doesnotexceedthenumberofdeclarationsgiveninthefirsthalfof2017(948,000),andisinfactclearlylower(about600,000).

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III. mIgrAnT STockS

BecausethetypesofadministrativedatacollectedinPolandshowahighlevelofcomplexity,itisnecessarytomakeuseofavailabledataconcerninginterna-tionalmigrantstocks(i.e.onthenumberofmigrantsresidentinthecountryatagivenpointintime).AccordingtoMRPiPSdata,asof31December2017,thenumberofUkrainiancitizenswhoheldvaliddeclarationsofintentiontoem-ployaforeignerwas517,035,andthenumberofUkrainianswithaworkpermitwas207,927.IfthenumberofUkrainiancitizenswhoareresidentinPolandforbusinesspurposesorwhodonotneedaworkpermitistakenintoaccount,itturnsoutthattheestimatesbytheNationalBankofPolandfromDecember2017, that the average number of Ukrainians staying in Poland at any giventimein2017isabout900,0005,wellreflectsthescaleofUkrainianmigration.

DataonmigrantstocksarealsousedbytheOfficeforForeigners (Urządds.Cudzoziemców).Asofmid-August2018,168,000Ukrainiancitizenshelddocu-mentsentitlingthemtotemporaryorpermanentresidenceinPoland6(includ-inguniformpermitsforresidenceandwork,temporaryresidencepermitsis-suedforotherreasons,andpermanentresidencepermitsissuedinter aliaonthebasisofpossessingthePolishCard[KartaPolaka]).77%oftheseindividu-alswerestayinginPolandonthebasisofatemporaryresidencepermit,21%hadpermanentresidencepermits,andfewerthan3%werelong-termEUresi-dents.Permitsrelatedtosomeformofprotection(refugeestatus,subsidiaryprotection, toleratedresidence,humanitarianresidence)wereheldbyabout850persons7.Thisdata,inanutshell,illustratesthescaleoflong-termmigra-tionfromUkrainetoPoland.

ThedatafromtheSocialInsuranceInstitution(ZUS)onthenumberofforeign-ersinPolandmakingcontributionstohealthandpensioninsuranceispoten-tially very valuable. Until recently, the majority of Ukrainian citizens wereemployed in Poland on the basis of contracts for specific jobs (which do notrequire contributions), which is why the data from ZUS is not very reliable

5 Obywatele Ukrainy pracujący w Polsce. Raport z badania,NationalBankofPoland,Warsaw2018,https://www.nbp.pl/aktualnosci/wiadomosci_2018/obywatele-Ukrainy-pracujacy-w-Polsce-raport.pdf

6 NotincludingnationalD-typevisas,whichentitlesholderstoremain(ononeormoreocca-sions)inPolandforuptothreemonthsinayear.

7 Informacja o działalności Urzędu w okresie 10.08.2018–16.08.2018,Urządds.Cudzoziemców[OfficeforForeigners].

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whenitcomestothetotalmigrationinflow.AsofJuly2018,403,000Ukrain-ianswereinsuredbyZUS8.

Another source of information on the numbers, but principally on the mi-gration strategies and the impact of Ukrainian migration on the Polish andUkrainianeconomies,isthedatafromtheNationalBankofPoland(NBP)onthefinancialtransfersmigrantscarryout.Theseremittancesamountedto11.7billionzloty in2017(seeFigure3 inmoredetail)and2.9billionzloty in thefirstquarterof2018(anincreaseof500millionzlotycomparedtothesameperiod last year). The transfers included in international statistics are thosewhicharemadethroughbanksorspecialisedcompaniesprovidingfinancialservices,whereas–asisshownbyresearchintoUkrainianmigrants–thecir-culationofthemigrantsmeansthattheybringbacktheirearningspersonallytotheircountryoforigin.Thatiswhy,fornow,theNBP’sdataprovidesuswithonlyaverynarrowpictureofUkrainianmigration.

Figure 3. Remittances in 2017

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Poles to Poland

Ukrainiansfrom Poland

Other foreignersfrom Poland

BALANCE

[millions of zloty]16.3

-11.7

-1.3

3.3

Source: National Bank of Poland

8 L.Kostrzewski,A.Rozwadowska,Obcokrajowy ratują ZUS. Składki na ubezpieczenie społeczne płaci już 403 tys. Ukraińców,„GazetaWyborcza",30July2018.

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IV. mIgrATIon To polAnd In THE lIgHT of ukrAInIAn rESEArcH

NewlightonthemostrecentwaveofmigrationfromUkrainetoPolandisbe-ingshedbyarepresentativesurvey–thefirstsincetheoutbreakofthewarinUkraine–carriedoutbytheStateStatisticalCommitteeofUkraine(SSCU)9onthesubjectofexternallabourmigrationbyUkrainiancitizens.Theprincipalaimofthesurvey,whichwasconductedin2015-17,wastoestimatethenumberofeconomicmigrantsresidentabroadinthisperiod,andtocomparethedataobtainedwithpreviousresearchcarriedoutaccordingtothesamemethodol-ogy.Itseemsthattheresultobtained,thattherehavebeen1.3millioncitizensofUkraineworkingabroadinthelasttwoyears,issomethingofanunderes-timate,especiallywhencomparedwiththePolishdataandprevioussurveys.

Figure 4. Citizens of Ukraine working abroad, according to SSCU research results from 2008, 2012 and 2017

-1,3

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Ukrainian citizensworking abroad

including thosein Poland0.79

1.50

1.200.51

[millions]

Source: State Statistical Committee of Ukraine

This is probably due to the specific nature of Ukrainian migration after 2014,whichthelateststudywasunabletotakeintoaccount.TheStatisticalCommit-teeonlyconsideredthoseeconomicmigrantswhohadreturnedtotheirhome-land,orthefamiliesofmigrantsworkingabroad.Permanentmigrationwhenentirefamilieswentabroadwasnotconsidered.EstimatingthefiguresforthisgroupinUkraine isparticularlydifficult,asat least1millionUkrainians(ac-cordingtothedataRussiaprovidedtotheMinskcontactgroupattheOSCE,be-tweenApril2014andFebruary2018asmanyas1.7millionUkrainiansaskedtheRussianauthoritiestograntthemrefugeestatusorotherformsofprotection,as

9 Зовнішня Трудова Міграція Населення (за результатами модульного вибіркового обстеження),ДержавнаСлужбаСтатистикиУкраїни,Kyiv2018.

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wellasapplicationsforcitizenship)10lefttheDonbaswarzonetogoabroad,andtheappropriateresearchcouldnottakeplaceunderwarconditions.

Nevertheless, the latest study provides a great deal of valuable information;firstandforemost,ithelpsustobetterunderstandwheretheUkrainianswhoarriveinPolandhavecomefrom.Somearenewpeoplewhohavenopreviousexperienceofmigration,asindicatedbyarepresentativesurveyofUkrainianmigrantsworkingintheagriculturalsectorwhichtheNationalBankofPolandcarriedoutin201711.Ontheotherhand,thankstoUkrainiandata,itispossibletoproveforthefirsttimethatacertainnumberofthenewmigrantstoPolandarepeoplewhohavechangedtheirdestinationfromRussiatoPoland.Acom-parisonofstudiesfrom2008,2012and2017clearlyshowshowthisreorienta-tionfromRussiatoPolandtookplace.In2017,39%ofrespondentsmigratedtoPoland(14.3%in2012)andonly26%of thepeoplesurveyedwenttoworkinRussia(43%in2012)(formore,seeFigure5).

Figure 5. The most popular countries for Ukrainian migrants to work, according to SSCU research results from 2008, 2012 and 2017 (in percent)

Russia

201720122008

Poland

Italy

CzechRepublic

Hungary

Portugal

0 10 20 30 40 50%

1.6

1.3

1.8

8.0

26.343.2

48.1

2.6

2.93.2

9.411.9

11.313.213.4

14.388.9

12.9

Source: State Statistical Committee of Ukraine

Thisstudyalsoconfirmsanddevelopssomeofthehypothesesalreadyestab-lished in the Polish studies. Among other things, it shows that migrants to

10 СначалаконфликтавДонбассеубежищевРФпопросили1,7млнукраинцев,„Российскаягазета”,8February2018,https://rg.ru/2018/02/08/s-nachala-konflikta-v-donbasse-ubezhish-che-v-rf-poprosili-17-mln-ukraincev.html

11 NationalBankofPoland,op. cit.

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PolandmostlyarrivefromwesternUkraine(73.7%),andthegeographicalareafromwhichmigrantsarerecruitedhasmainlybeenexpandedbytheintegra-tionofcentral(11%),north(7.7%)andsouthern(6.9%)Ukraine,whilethescaleof migration from the eastern part of the country still remains very small(0.9%).Thestudyalsoconfirmedthecircularandshort-termnatureofUkrain-ianmigrationtoPoland.70%ofthemigrantssurveyedstayedinPolandforonetosixmonths,andover50%hadmademorethanonetripduringtheyear.

ThesurveyalsoshowedthepositiveimpactoftheliberalPolishlegislationre-gardingthetemporaryemploymentof foreigners;only19%ofUkrainianre-spondentsindicatedthattheydidnothavearegulatedlegalstatusinPoland(formore,seeFigure6).

Figure 6. The level of irregular migration among Ukrainian migrants working abroad according to the 2017 SSCU study

RussiaPoland Italy Czech Republic Portugal

2008 2012 2017

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

26.624.6

19.8

27.0 25.3

56.2

2.4

36.2

19.4 18.817.414.8

29.8

19.7 20.7

Source: State Statistical Committee of Ukraine

The popularity of Poland among Ukrainian migrants also results to a largeextentfromtheenormousactivityofemploymentagencies,whichoperateinvirtuallyeveryregionofUkraine.ItisoneofthemostdynamicallydevelopingsectorsoftheeconomyinbothPolandandinUkraine.However,asstudiesofthemigrantsshow,thissectorisstilltoopoorlyregulatedandcontrolled,andtoomanymigrantshavebecomevictimsofdishonestagencies.

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V. oTHEr TArgET counTrIES for ukrAInIAn mIgrATIon

JustastheagriculturalsectorinPolandisthefirstplacewhereUkrainianmi-grants acquire migration experience before relocating to other areas of em-ployment,PolandisoftentreatedasatestinggroundfromwhichattemptsaremadetomigratetootherEUcountries.UkrainianresearchersemphasisethatthismigrationtakesplacewiththehelpofPolishmigrationnetworks,includ-ingPolishintermediaries.InCzechresearchinparticular,theso-called‘Polishmark’clearlyappearswhenUkrainianmigrantsintheCzechRepublicdeclarethattheyhavearrivedfromPoland.TheCzechpresshaverepeatedlyreportedaboutchecksonthelegalityofemployment,duringwhichmigrantshavebeenrevealedtobeinpossessionofcertificatesfromPolishemployersabouttheirintentiontoemployaworker,eventhoughthesedonotauthorisethemtoworkintheCzechRepublic.DirectUkrainianmigrationtotheCzechRepublicisdif-ficult,asthecountryhasbeenconductingaveryrestrictivemigrationpolicysince2012,practicallyclosingoffanypossibilityofneweconomicmigrantsar-rivingthere.AcertainloopholeinthispracticearosewiththelaunchinJuly2016ofthegovernment’sRežim Ukrajinaprogrammeforqualifiedmigrants,aspartofwhich13,300UkrainiansworkintheCzechRepublic(withinthequotaof20,000)12.Generally,itmaybeestimated–accordingtothestateofaffairsattheendofMay2018–thatabout85,000UkrainiansarecurrentlyworkinglegallyintheCzechRepublic13.Thisnumberisstillsmall,buttheCzechgov-ernmenthasbeentreatingthelaunchofthecurrentquotaprogramasatestforpossiblefurtherliberalisationinthefuture.

Another country that could potentially be attractive to Ukrainian migrantsisHungary.However,thiscountryappliesamigrationpolicyquitedifferentfromthoseofPolandandtheCzechRepublic.Themainmethodforattractingmigrantsisthepolicy(liberalisedin2011)ofgrantingHungariancitizenshiptothosewhofeelboundbyethnictieswiththeHungarianstate.AccordingtodatafromJuly2017,845,000citizensofothercountriesreceivedHungariancit-izenship,and145,000wereintheprocessofdoingso.Thenumberofthosewhohaveobtainedcitizenshipincludesabout100,000Ukrainiancitizens(mainly

12 Bilanční TK ke dvěma letům od spuštění vládního Režimu Ukrajina,„HospodářskáKomora”,30June2018,https://www.komora.cz/files/uploads/2018/07/20180730_PODKLADY_Re%C5%BEim-Ukrajina_GRAFY.pdf

13 According to estimates by the Czech Statistics Office; https://www.czso.cz/docu-ments/10180/67292846/29002717_t3-01.pdf/6b869934-2304-416f-baab-9e03d980be81?version=1.1

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fromTranscarpathia,whichisinhabitedbytheHungarianminority)14.Inter-estingly,asyettheHungariangovernmenthasnotsoughttomakethenewlynaturalisedcitizensmovetoHungary; theyhaveoftenusedHungarianciti-zenshiptomigratetootherEUcountries.Thissituationisslowlybeginningtochange,asHungaryhasalsostartedtonoticeshortagesonitslabourmarket.

InmanysurveyscarriedoutbycompaniesinvolvedinfindingemploymentinPoland,thereisafearofanoutflowofUkrainianworkersfromPolandtoGer-many.Forexample,accordingtoarecentsurveyconductedbyPersonnelSer-viceinJuly2018,asmanyas60%oftheUkrainianmigrantscurrentlyworkinginPolandwouldliketoworkinGermany15.Unlessonethinksintermsofun-documentedemployment,thechancesofachangeinmigrationlegislationforUkrainians in Germany are negligible. At present, Germany has set itself thetaskofactivatingthe1millionrefugeeswhoarrivedduringthecrisisof2015-16.AnadditionalpriorityistheprofessionalactivationoftheBalkanmigrantswhocametoGermanyin2009-12,aswellasthepossiblepreparationofspecialpro-grammesofferingjobstomigrantsfromAfricancountrieswhohavethemostdesirable professions from thepointofview of the labourmarket’sneeds. Ontheotherhand,Germanyhasbeenrecentlyworkingonanewcomprehensivemigration policy whichshould facilitate the inflow of aqualified labour forceoriginatingfromthenon-EUcountries,potentiallyincludingUkraine.Howeverthistaskisverydifficult,becauseGermanregulationsareveryprohibitiveandinflexible,andasaruleGermanydoesnotrecognisediplomasfromuniversitiesorprofessionalqualificationsfromnon-EUcountries16.

AnewcountrywhichhadpreviouslybeenabsentfromthemapofUkrainianmi-grationinEuropeisLithuania.Thenumbersarestillsmall,butduringthespaceofoneyearthenumberofUkrainiancitizenswhohavebeengrantedtherightofres-idenceinLithuaniahasincreaseddramatically.Whiletherewerejust3600suchpeoplein2017,inthefirstquarterof2018thefigurehadalreadyreached11,30017.

14 J.Toth,The curious case of Hungary: why the naturalisation rate does not always show how in-clusive a country is,EuropeanUniversityInstitute,GlobalGovernanceProgramme,http://globalcit.eu/the-curious-case-of-hungary-why-the-naturalisation-rate-does-not-always-show-how-inclusive-a-country-is/

15 Barometr Imigracji Zarobkowej,PersonnelService,2ndhalfof2018,http://personnelservice.pl/en/press-office/reports

16 Formoreseethe2018 MEDAM Assessment Report on Asylum and Migration Policies in Europe,KielInstitutefortheWorldEconomy2018.

17 Трудовая миграция в Литву выросло вдвое за счет украинцев,„Экономическаяправда”,21May2018,https://www.epravda.com.ua/rus/news/2018/05/21/637005/

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VI. proSpEcTS

Allthefactorspresentedindicatehowdifficultitistomakeanyfurtherpredic-tionsaboutthedynamicsofmigrationfromUkrainetoPoland.Itisnotknownwhetherthedynamicsofcircularmigrationwillbemaintainedinthemediumterm(5–7years),orwhetherthismigrationpatternwillstillbeattractivetothe inhabitants of western Ukraine. As a rule, in each target country, someofthemigrantsusuallydecidetosettlefor longer.Atthemoment long-termmigrationfromUkrainetoPolandisalsorising,albeitatamuchslowerpace.Whether the proportions between temporary and long-term migration willchangedependsonmanyfactors,includingPolishmigrationpolicy18andthemigrationpoliciesoftheothertargetcountries.Forthetimebeing,nomajorgeographical reorientation of Ukrainian migrants from Poland to other EUcountriescanbeobserved,butitisclearthatinthisrespectPoland’smainpo-tentialcompetitoristheCzechRepublic.TheaveragesizeofthesavingsthatUkrainiancitizenscanmakewhileworkinginPolandisalsoofgreatimpor-tance.Atthemoment,duetothedifferencesintheexchangeratesandtherela-tivelylowcostsoflivinginPoland,circularmigrationtoPolandisdefinitelyamoreviableoptionthanworkinginUkraineorlong-termmigration,whichwouldrequiremorefundsforbringingoverandsupportingafamily.

Itisworthrememberingthatatthemacrolevel,thecurrentmigrationwavefromUkrainetoPolandisasocialreactiontoasituationofshock(theoutbreakof armed conflict and the sudden deterioration of the economic situation),andshouldnotbetreatedasalong-termtrend.Ukraine,whichisstrugglingwith serious demographic problems and a deficit on its own labour market,maysoonbeunabletomeetthedemandofthelabourmarketinPoland.ThenumberofpeopleofworkingageinUkraineissystematicallydecreasing(asof mid-2017, this group numbered 17.2 million19), and moreover Ukraine hasarelativelyhighemploymentrate(about60%oftheworking-agepopulation,not including the shadow economy). According to estimates by the National

18 On31July2018,theCouncilofMinistersadoptedadocumententitled‘Poland'smigrationpolicy-currentstatusandpostulatedactions’,whichisaimedatformulatingdirectionsofactionandsystemicsolutions&guidelinesforthepublicadministrationinthefieldofmi-gration.ThisnewconceptprovidesforthesimplificationofprovisionsregardingtherulesofresidenceandworkforforeignersinPoland,includingpreferentiallegalsolutionsinthescopeofresidenceandworkontheterritoryoftheRepublicofPolandforselectedgroupsofforeigners,andthedevelopment&implementationofaneffectiveprogrammefortheinte-grationofforeigners.

19 DatafromtheStateStatisticalCommitteeofUkraine.

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BankofUkraine,labourmigrationhasalreadyreachedsuchahighlevel(withdecliningpopulation)thatitisnowhamperingUkraine’sGDPgrowth,mainlyduetoalackofmanpowerforworkinconstruction,industry,agricultureandtransport20.

Marta Jaroszewicz

20 Трудовая миграция тормозит рост экономики – НБУ,„Экономическаяправда”,5August2018,https://www.epravda.com.ua/rus/news/2018/08/5/639329/