milan zeleny: evolutionary economics - presentation from conferece casa, e-leader, prague 2015
TRANSCRIPT
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Evolutionary Economics Towards the New World of Digital
and Localized Economies
Milan ZelenyFordham University
The Tomas Bata University
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→ US GDP shrank - 0.7 % in the first quarter of 2015
→ US business investment fell - 2.8 %
→ Exports of goods and services decreased - 7.6 %
→ Weak US trade knocked -1.9 % off the overall growth GDP→ The rouble is one of the world’s best performing currencies this year with +20 % gain against the US dollar
→ Index of consumer sentiment fell to 90.7 from 95.9 in April.
→ 5.4% unemployment rate, 7-year low. 93 million Americans not working. US labor force participation lowest since 1977.
→ Excluding the inventory, Japan GDP grew a meager +0.7 %
→ German economy grew by only +0.3% in Q1 2015
→ German PMI Manufacturing down to 51.1
These truly are remarkable times
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Pattern of recessions
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Workforce Participation since 2005
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Workforce Participation since 1950(USA 62.7% - as in 1977)
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Not in Workforce (over 93 mil.)
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EU youth unemployment 2013
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30 Year US T-Bond Yield(1977-2015)
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Secular stagnation (SS)• Chronic excess
of savings over investments
Cause and consequence?
Without a cause, there is no diagnosis; without diagnosis, there can be no cure.
Interest rates measure value of money. There can be no true economy without the true and reliably signaling interest rates.
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Autopoiesis, Panarchyand Self-Sustainability
N
B
H
S
H/G → A → I → S → GWU
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World under Transformation
17% All markets are „emerging“(through a series of transformations)
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?
MetamorphosisDilemma of advanced economies
A completed series of sector transformations brings forth qualitative metamorphosis of economic system towards localized, automated and integrated (sector-free) communities. The sector differentiation of globalization leads to sector integration of relocalization.
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One-sector growth model (Kuznets, 1973) predicts sustained growth in productivity and living standards
Two-sector model: consumption and investment „sectors“
Consumption is not disaggregated into agriculture, manufacturing and services
Assuming the entire added value belongs to manufacturing
Reallocation of economic activity across sectors coexists with „balanced growth“
Labor homogeneous: can move across sectors without mobility costs
Sector reallocation of economic activity is inefficient and calls for governmental intervention
Why? Because multiple-sector dynamics cannot be handled by neoclassical mathematics (although quite easy for modern evolutionary simulation).
Mainstream Macroeconomics?
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Linear input-output(physics; mechanical)
Circular autonomy(biology; organic)
Supplier Network
Customer
Network
Renewed
knowledge
Output
Product
s
Input
Resource
s
Recycled
products
Mechanism vs. Organism
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Key Metamorphosis Drivers(Relocalized Technologies)
1. Self-Service (Outsourcing to Customer); Self-Help Empowerment
2. Disintermediation (Elimination of the middleman; unbundling of services)
3. Mass- and Self-Customization (Prosumer); massive individualization
4. Information to Knowledge (From Description to Action)
5. Reintegration of Labor, Task and Knowledge
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Additional Metamorphosis Drivers
6. From Supply chains to Demand chains (CIP)7. Digital and Virtual economy (Digital files + 3D =
end of trad. industry)8. High-Technology Impact (Disruptive
technologies; discontinuous improvement)9. Technology Support-Net Bypass10. From Linear to Cyclical Organization (Waste
Elimination)11. Resource Substitution and Optimization12. Towards Entrepreneurial University
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Corsi e ricorsi storiciGiambattista Vico
CORSO
STASIS
RICORSO
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RelocalizationCorso and Ricorso of socio-economic evolution
Globalization - restructuring of the initially distributed and localized world economy into spatially reorganized processes of production and consumption across the national boundaries, economies and political states on a global scale. Relocalization - restructuring global knowledge and high-technology based expansion of the local experience and local producers and consumers. Global experience and knowledge is becoming embodied in local communities.
Localization → Globalization → RelocalizationCorso: localization → globalization
Ricorso: globalization → relocalization
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From Globalization to Relocalization
Traditionally, growth rate of GDP is 3,5% and
int. trade is 8% (2006) - about twice as
high
Last years: growth GDP > growth int. trade
(2015: Jan -1.6%, Feb -0.9 %)
==> DeglobalizationInvestment in foreign assets now falling under
40% (over 50% in 2008)
==> Relocalization
“The golden age of globalization has ended” (Beijing)
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J. A. Bata’s “Industrial City” (1939)
Today we would call it Knowledge City, with atmospheric satellite, total digitization, entrepreneurial university, custom-made production, vertical farming and additive manufacturing.
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At the speed of light …
Digitized information and knowledge (software, algorithms, recipes, programs, methods, etc.) travel to the points of prosumption more effectively than logistics of physical products and objects.
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New World Strategy
1. Understand the phenomenon
2. Adapt to the circumstances
3. exploit new Opportunities
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1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transformation_in_Economics2. http://www.financialsense.com/financial-sense-newshour/milan-
zeleny/economy-complex-adaptive-organism3. “Machine/Organism Dichotomy of Free-Market Economics: Crisis or
Transformation?” Human Systems Management, 29(2010)4, pp. 191-204.
4. “Crisis or Transformation: On the corso and ricorso of human systems,”Human Systems Management, 31(2012)1, pp. 49-63.
5. Human Systems Management: Integrating Knowledge, Management and Systems, World Scientific, 2005.
Sources