mili slides schoenman
DESCRIPTION
Dr. Julie Schoenman’s presentation for the MILI Actuarial Seminar series, “A Detailed Look at US Health Care Spending,” covers recent trends in public and private spending as well as the implications of rising spending for the federal budget outlook and for consumers.TRANSCRIPT
A Detailed Look at
U.S. Health Care Spending
Julie A. Schoenman, Ph.D. National Institute for Health Care Management Foundation
Medical Industry Leadership Institute
Actuarial Seminar Series October 25, 2012
What We Will Cover Today
1. Big Picture Orientation
2. Distribution of Personal Health Care Spending
3. Spending through Government Entitlement Programs
4. Spending through Private Health Insurance
5. What’s Behind the High and Rising Spending?
What We Will Cover Today
1. Big Picture Orientation 2. Distribution of Personal Health Care Spending
3. Spending through Government Entitlement Programs
4. Spending through Private Health Insurance
5. What’s Behind the High and Rising Spending?
Total National Health Spending Continues to Increase
1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4
1.5 1.6
1.8 1.9
2.0 2.2
2.3 2.4
2.5 2.6
$4,169 $4,367 $4,601
$4,878 $5,241
$5,687 $6,114
$6,488 $6,868
$7,251 $7,628
$7,911 $8,149
$8,402
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
National Health Expenditures (trillions)
Per Capita Health Spending
% GDP 13.7% 13.7% 13.8% 13.8% 14.5% 15.4% 15.9% 16.0% 16.1% 16.2% 16.4% 16.8% 17.9% 17.9%
NIHCM Foundation analysis of data from the National Health Expenditure Accounts.
U.S. Health Spending is a Dramatic Outlier Internationally
17.4
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0
Mexico Korea
Estonia Hungary
Poland Luxembourg
Israel Czech Republic
Chile Slovak Republic
Finland Slovenia
Ireland Italy
Spain Norway Iceland
United Kingdom Sweden
New Zealand Belgium Austria Canada
Switzerland Denmark Germany
France Netherlands
United States
Most developed countries spent ~9.5 to 12% of GDP on health care in 2009
% GDP, 2009
NIHCM Foundation analysis of data from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.
U.S. Spends More than Expected Based on Our Wealth
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
$10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000
Spain, Italy, France, Finland, United Kingdom, Belgium, Germany, Iceland, Sweden, Denmark, Canada, Austria, Ireland, Netherlands
Per Capita GDP, 2009
Per
Cap
ita
Hea
lth
Spen
ding
, 200
9
NIHCM Foundation analysis of data from the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.
United States
Switzerland Norway Luxembourg
Chile, Mexico, Poland, Estonia, Hungary, Slovak Republic, Czech Republic, Korea, Israel, Slovenia, New Zealand
Hospital Care, $2,637
MD & Clinical Services, $1,670
Dentists & Other Health Professionals,
$560
Home Health & LTC, $1,107
Rx, DME & Other Medical
Products, $1,106
Administration, $570
Public Health, $267
Investment, $483
84% of spending ($7,080) is for personal health care services
What Does $8,400 Per Person Buy?
16% of spending ($1,320) is not related to personal health care services
NIHCM Foundation analysis of data from the 2010 National Health Expenditure Accounts.
Health Spending Growth has Slowed, But Usually Outpaces GDP Growth
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
Health Spending GDP
Per
cent
Cha
nge
from
Pre
viou
s Y
ear
Lowest growth rates in history of National Health Expenditure Accounts
NIHCM Foundation analysis of data from the National Health Expenditure Accounts.
Historically, Health Spending Has Grown 1.0 - 2.5 Percentage Points Faster than GDP
2.5
2.0 1.8 1.9
2.2
1.7 1.9 1.9
1.5
1.2
1.8 1.7 1.8
1.0
1.4 1.4
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Medicare Medicaid All Other HealthSpending
All Health Spending
1975-2008 1980-2008 1985-2008 1990-2008
Ave
rage
Ann
ual R
ate
of
“Exc
ess”
Cos
t Gro
wth
Pct. Points
NIHCM Foundation analysis of information presented in CBO’s “The Long-Term Budget Outlook.” Revised August 2011.
The Recent Slowdown in Spending Temporary Blip or Systemic Change?
• Continuation of slowdown underway since 2002
• Factors related to recent slowing in spending: o Recession
ü Massive loss of jobs and employer-sponsored insurance ü Declining real income, substantial loss of wealth, people more cautious about spending ü Reduced demand for health care services, even among those with insurance
o Drugs – ongoing shift to generics, expiring drug patents, fewer new drugs coming on line o Medicare – provider payment cuts, stabilization in Part D enrollment o Medicaid – provider payment cuts, higher drug rebates, benefit restrictions o Ongoing shift to policies with more cost-sharing, employees paying higher share of rising
premiums
• Factors likely to affect future spending: o Economic recovery, pent-up demand for health care, higher need due to delayed care o ACA - 2014 coverage expansions and other industry changes o Aging population o Delivery/payment system changes emphasizing paying for value, informed consumers o Ongoing consolidation among providers
Sources: Martin et al. “Growth in US Health Spending Remained Slow in 2010; Health Share of GDP Was Unchanged from 2009.” Health Affairs, 31(1):208-19, Jan. 2012 & McKinsey Center for U.S. Health System Reform. “Accounting for the Cost of U.S. Health Care.” Dec. 2011.
2011 Uptick Return to Higher Spending Growth, or Not?
Altarum analysis of monthly health spending data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
A Growing Share of National Health Spending is From Public Sources
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Public Sources = 32%
State and Local Government
Federal Government
Private Business
Households
Other Private Revenues
Private Sources = 55%
Public Sources = 45%
NIHCM Foundation analysis of data from the National Health Expenditure Accounts.
Private Sources = 68%
A Closer Look at Public & Private Health Care Spending, 2010
Private Sources (55%) Total Spending by Private Sources $1,430 B
Private Business (20.6%)
Private Health Insurance Premiums $414.1
Medicare Payroll Taxes $79.7
Workers Compensation, Disability Insurance & Worksite Health
$40.7
Households (28.0%)
Private Health Insurance Premiums $263.1
Medicare Payroll Taxes and Premiums $162.8
Out of Pocket Spending $299.7
Other Private Sources (6.6%)
Philanthropy, Investment, Etc. $169.9
Public Sources (45%) Total Spending by Public Sources $1,164 B
Federal Government (28.6%)
Private Health Insurance Premiums $28.5
Medicare Payroll Tax $4.0
Direct Medicare Program Spending $254.0
Direct Medicaid Program Spending $278.1
All Other Health Spending $178.0
State/Local Government (16.2%)
Private Health Insurance Premiums $134.1
Medicare Payroll Tax $11.4
Direct Medicaid Program Spending $135.9
All Other Health Spending $139.6
Source: NIHCM Foundation analysis of data from the National Health Expenditure Accounts.
What We Will Cover Today
1. Big Picture Orientation
2. Distribution of Personal Health Care Spending
3. Spending through Government Entitlement Programs
4. Spending through Private Health Insurance
5. What’s Behind the High and Rising Spending?
A Word about Data Sources
National Health Expenditure Accounts (NHEA)
Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS)
Synthetic database derived from myriad secondary sources
Annual survey of households about their health spending
Covers total US population, including military, nursing home residents, etc.
Covers civilian, non-institutionalized population
Includes expenditures beyond personal health care services (e.g., public health, research, investments in infrastructure, administration)
Designed to capture payments from all sources (public, private, self-pay) for personal health care services
Latest available year is 2010 Latest available year is 2009
Total spending reported = $2.594T Total spending reported = $1.259T
Relatively Few People Account for Most Personal Health Spending
0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.9 5.6
10.4
18.8
34.8
50.5
78.2
100.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Total Personal Health Care Spending = $1.259 Trillion
Cum
ulat
ive
Per
cent
of T
otal
Spe
ndin
g
Percent of Civilian Non-Institutionalized Population Ordered by Health Care Spending
$1,223 Billion
Top 5% of spenders account for almost half of spending ($623 billion)
15.4
95 99
$36 Billion
Top 1% of spenders account for >20% of spending ($275 billion)
NIHCM Foundation analysis of data from the 2009 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey.
Greatest Potential for Savings Focus on High Spenders
$236 $7,980
$12,265
$26,767
$40,682
$90,061
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
$100,000
Lowest 50% Top 50% Top 30% Top 10% Top 5% Top 1%
Mea
n A
nnua
l Exp
endi
ture
Percent of Civilian Non-Institutionalized Population Ordered by Health Care Spending
3.06M pop. 15.3M pop. 30.7M pop.
Total spending by top 10% = $821 billion
Total spending by top 1% = $275 billion
Total spending by top 5% = $623 billion
Total spending by bottom 50% = $36 billion
NIHCM Foundation analysis of data from the 2009 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey.
High Spenders are Older
34.5
6.3 7.6
27.8
8.5 5.9
14.0
8.7 7.3
12.5
16.2 13.2
7.0
22.1 26.1
2.7
17.1 15.1
1.4
21.1 24.8
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Lowest 50% Top 5% Top 1%
75+
65-74
55-64
45-54
35-44
19-34
0-18
NIHCM Foundation analysis of data from the 2009 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey.
High Spenders Report Worse Health
40.4
7.5 5.8
32.3
19.9 13.4
22.1
28.9
23.4
4.3
25.2
31.4
0.8
18.5 26.0
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Lowest 50% Top 5% Top 1%
Poor
Fair
Good
Very Good
Excellent
NIHCM Foundation analysis of data from the 2009 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey.
High Spenders Have More Chronic Conditions & Functional Limits
50.0
7.4
36.5
30.9
8.2
28.9
3.4
31.5
1.9 1.3
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Other 95% Top 5% Spenders
Functional limitation only
Chronic condition, help with ADLs
Chronic condition, functional limitation
Chronic condition only
No chronic condition, no functional limitation
NIHCM Foundation analysis of data contained in The Lewin Group, "Individuals Living in the Community with Chronic Conditions and Functional Limitations: A Closer Look," January 2010.
Considerable Persistence in Spending Patterns Over Two Years
73.9% 75.0%
63.1%
54.4%
44.8%
38.0%
20.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Bottom 50% Top 50% Top 30% Top 20% Top 10% Top 5% Top 1%
Percentile Rank by Health Care Spending, 2008
Per
cent
wit
h Sa
me
Ran
king
in 2
009
Source: Cohen SB and Yu W. "The Concentration and Persistence in the Level of Health Expenditures over Time: Estimates for the U.S. Population, 2008-2009." Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, Statistical Brief #354. January 2012.
Persistent High Spenders: Older People & Those Whose Health Remains a Problem
3.4 10.9 3.1
16.6 10.6
27 40.1
26.4
42.9
19.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Top 10% in both years Top 10% in 2008, Bottom 75% in 2009
65+
45-64
30-44
18-29
0-17
23.9 3.3
29.6
14.1
27.3
26.9
13.2
30.9
6.1
24.8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Top 10% in both years Top 10% in 2008, Bottom 75% in 2009
Excellent
Very Good
Good
Fair
Poor
Source: Cohen SB and Yu W. "The Concentration and Persistence in the Level of Health Expenditures over Time: Estimates for the U.S. Population, 2008-2009." Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, Statistical Brief #354. January 2012.
Of top 10% of spenders in 2008: 44.8% remained in top 10% and 25.4% moved to the bottom 75% in 2009
Age (end of 2009) Health Status (end of 2008)
Long-Term Persistence of High Spending Among Medicare Beneficiaries
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Bottom 75% Top 25%
Died by Jan. 1 Not in FFS
Source: Congressional Budget Office. “High-Cost Medicare Beneficiaries.” May 2005.
Challenges of Controlling Costs Among High Spenders
• Chronic health problems and persistence in high spending imply a role for disease management. But…
• many of the same chronic problems are also highly prevalent in lower-spending groups, especially among the elderly
• accurate prospective targeting of those who can most benefit from disease management can be tricky
• Managing high spending at the end of life can be problematic
• not all with high spending will die soon
• predicting timing of death and distinguishing between care that could extend life in a meaningful way and care that does little good is often very difficult
• societal reluctance to discuss end of life care, fears of rationing
• Not all high spending is predictable or persistent. • hard to control the random events
• may be able to manage some episodes more efficiently (e.g., clinical pathways for cancer)
What We Will Cover Today
1. Big Picture Orientation
2. Distribution of Personal Health Care Spending
3. Spending through Government Entitlement Programs
4. Spending through Private Health Insurance
5. What’s Behind the High and Rising Spending?
Government Health Entitlement Programs 36 Percent of National Health Spending in 2010
Out of Pocket, 12%
Private Health Insurance, 33%
Medicare = $524.6B, 20%
Medicaid & CHIP = $413.1B, 16%
DOD & VA, 3%
Other Third Party Payers & Programs,
7%
Public Health, 3% Investment, 6%
2010 Total Spending = $2.594 T
NIHCM Foundation analysis of data from the 2010 National Health Expenditure Accounts.
Government Health Entitlement Programs 21 Percent of U.S. Federal Spending in 2011
Federal Revenues ($2.302T, excluding borrowing)
Federal Spending ($3.598T)
13%
8%
20%
15%
19%
18%
6% Net Interest
Non-Defense Discretionary
Defense Discretionary
Other Mandatory Spending
Social Security
Medicaid & Other Health Entitlements
Medicare
NIHCM Foundation analysis of data from CBO’s “The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022,” Jan. 2012.
36%
30%
5%
23%
6%
Other Revenue
Payroll Taxes
Corporate Income Taxes
Individual Income Taxes
Borrowing (Deficit)
21%
Structure of the Medicare Program
PART A Inpatient & Post-Acute Care
• Hospital Insurance (HI) Trust Fund • Mandatory program • Eligible if > 40 quarters of covered employment (self/spouse) • Payroll tax, SS income tax if high income, premiums if
buying into program, interest on Trust Fund reserves
PART B Physician & Outpatient Care
• Supplemental Medical Insurance (SMI) Trust Fund • Voluntary programs • Premiums from enrollees (~25% of program costs) • Fees on manufacturers/importers of brand name drugs (B) • Transfers from state Medicaid programs (D) • General revenues (balance SMI Trust Fund each year)
PART D Outpatient Rx
PART C Managed Care
• Capitated arrangements with private health plans • Financed from both trust funds
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
% of Taxable Payroll
Part A Income
Part A Expenditures
2024: Part A Trust Fund Exhausted
Part A Operating Deficit: Covered by Redemption of Trust Fund Assets, Requiring General Revenues
Periods of Operating Surplus: Trust Fund Assets Accumulate and are Lent to the Federal Government, Earning Interest
Source: A Summary of the 2012 Annual Reports, Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees, www.ssa.gov/OACT/TRSUM
Current Claims on the Part A Trust Fund Require General Revenues
A Pay-As-We-Go System
Baby boomers retiring ~10,000/day
The Big Picture for Medicare: Dedicated Revenue < Expenditures
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
Total Medicare Expenditures %GDP
Payroll Tax Tax on SS Benefits
Premiums, State Transfers, & Drug Fees
General Revenue Transfers to Parts B & D
Part A Trust Fund Deficit
Source: A Summary of the 2012 Annual Reports, Social Security and Medicare Boards of Trustees, www.ssa.gov/OACT/TRSUM
historical projected
Part A Trust Fund exhausted
Non
-int
eres
t pro
gram
inco
me
$60,000
$170,000
$60,000
$357,000
$119,000
$357,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
Single, Average Wage One-Earner Couple, Average Wage
Two-Earner Couple, Average Wages
Medicare Expected Benefits (Net of Premiums), Lifetime
Medicare Payroll Taxes, Lifetime
$188,000 Female
Male
Source: Steuerle CE and Rennane S. "Social Security and Medicare Taxes and Benefits Over a Lifetime.” Washington, DC: The Urban Institute. June 2011.
Single, Average Wage One-Earner Couple, Average Wage Two-Earner Couple, Average Wage
A Beneficiary Lifetime Perspective: Payroll Contributions < Expected Benefits
But the Public Perception is Very Different from Reality
21%
13%
21%
32%
31%
29%
30%
34%
49%
58%
49%
34%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
All Ages (18+)
18-35
36-55
56+
Not enough, others will support me Enough to support myself More than I'll receive
Thinking about Medicare, do you believe that over the course of your career you [will] have paid…
Source: Stony Brook Poll, December 2010. http://tinyurl.com/9qteyxm
Structure of the Medicaid Program
• Covers ~60 million low-income individuals
• Jointly financed by states and federal government
• Voluntary program for states, all now participate
• Categorical eligibility: children, pregnant women, parents with dependent children, people with disabilities, seniors (income thresholds vary by category)
• States run their programs; must meet federal standards but can deviate with a waiver or exceed standards using own funds
• Very few states have expanded to cover “childless adults”
• ACA removed categorical eligibility and expanded eligibility to all non-elderly persons under 138% FPL
• Supreme Court decision makes this expansion optional for states
Medicaid Enrollment vs. Spending, FY 2009
49%
21%
26%
14%
10%
23%
15%
43%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
100%
Enrollees Spending
Disabled
Elderly
Adults (<65)
Children
2/3
$2,926
$13,186
$2,313
~15% of enrollees are dual eligibles
1/4
$15,453 per enrollee
~40% of spending is for dual eligibles
Source: Kaiser Family Foundation, “The Medicaid Program at a Glance.” September 2012.
Medicaid Spending is a Large and Growing State & Federal Burden
89 98 112 122 133 137 142 150 158 147 156
118 130
148 162
176 182 181 191
201
251
273
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Federal Spending
State Spending
Medicaid 24%
K-12 Education
20%
Higher Education
10% Transport
7%
Corrections 3%
Public Assistance
2%
All Other Spending
34%
Total State Expenditures, FY2011 (estimated) Total Medicaid Spending ($billions)
NIHCM Foundation depiction of data from National Association of State Budget Officers. “State Expenditure Report.” Dec. 2011.
56-57%
63-64% ARRA
45
480 466 494 514 539 589 608 632 696 750 806 899
275 253 267 305 341
382 416 446 479
514 549
592
1 24
46 75
91 101 107
111 118
123
5.1% 4.7% 4.9%
5.3% 5.5%
5.8%
5.8% 5.8% 6.1% 6.2% 6.4%
6.7%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Exchanges Medicaid Medicare (net offsetting receipts) Other Mandatory Health Spending (net) Percent of GDP
$ billions
NIHCM analysis of data from CBO’s “An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022,” Aug. 2012.
Mandatory Federal Health Spending Projected to More Than Double in 10 Years
actual
And That’s the Good News
• CBO’s baseline projections assume current laws remain in place and will be implemented as written, most notably: • Deep cuts in Medicare physician payment rates under the SGR
formula • 2% reductions in Medicare payment rates under Budget Control Act
sequestration • Cuts in Medicare provider payment updates under the ACA
• Overriding any of these cuts will increase Medicare spending
• Other big unknowns: • extent to which states will expand Medicaid (implications for Federal
match) • extent to which people will seek subsidized coverage in the exchanges
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080
historical
Growth at GDP
GDP + 1%
GDP + 2% (~Historical Average)
projected
Pri
mar
y Su
rplu
s (+
) or
Def
icit
(-)
as
% o
f G
DP
Source: “2011 Fiscal Report of the U.S. Government.” Supplemental Information, Chart 5, http://www.fms.treas.gov/finrep11/supp_info/fr_supplement_info_alternative.html#chart5
Faster Growth in Health Entitlement Spending Will Dramatically Worsen Projected Deficit
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25%
Def
ense
& O
ther
Non
-Hea
lth
Spen
ding
as
% o
f G
DP
0% -2% -3% -4%
C
D
B
Tax Revenue as % of GDP
Health Spending Growth Relative to Potential GDP
Source: Roehrig, C. Altarum Center for Sustainable Health Spending. As presented in The Incidental Economist Blog, Aug. 15, 2012.
+1% -1%
Triangle of Painful Choices Tradeoffs Needed to Balance Budget by 2035
A
What We Will Cover Today
1. Big Picture Orientation
2. Distribution of Personal Health Care Spending
3. Spending through Government Entitlement Programs
4. Spending through Private Health Insurance
5. What’s Behind the High and Rising Spending?
Private Health Insurance Premiums One-Third of National Health Spending, 2010
Out of Pocket, 12%
Private Health Insurance = $848.7B,
33%
Medicare, 20%
Medicaid & CHIP, 16%
DOD & VA, 3%
Other Third Party Payers & Programs,
7%
Public Health, 3% Investment, 6%
2010 Total Spending = $2.594 T
NIHCM Foundation analysis of data from the 2010 National Health Expenditure Accounts.
Private Health Insurance Markets
Employer-Based or Group Market
• Coverage purchased by employer for workers, dependents and, perhaps, retirees.
• Risks pooled by employer group.
• Employers and employees generally contribute to premium
• Premiums excluded from taxes in most cases. Value of tax exclusions = $145 billion in 2011.
• Small, medium, large group based on number of employees
• 60 percent of workers with employer-based coverage were in “self-insured” plans (2012)
• Larger employers most likely to self insure, but growing trend among smaller employers
Individual or Non-Group Market
• Coverage purchased directly from insurer
• Individual/family is own risk pool. Health underwriting and pre-existing conditions can make coverage expensive or unavailable.
• Purchaser pays full premium.
• Preferential tax treatment of premiums only for self-employed
• Most people purchasing coverage in this market do not have access to employer-based coverage • self-employed • employed but not offered coverage • non-dependent students • early retirees • between jobs
Private Coverage is Dominated by Employment-Based Insurance
10.8% 5.1%
89.2% 94.9%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Enrollees Premiums
Employer-Based Coverage
Individual Market
Employee contributions (27.6%)
Private employer contributions (52.0%)
174.4M (2011)
Govt. employer contributions (20.4%)
$839.8B (2010)
Sources: Fronstin P. “Sources of Heath Insurance…” EBRI Issue Brief 376, Sept. 2012; NIHCM analysis of data from the 2010 National Health Expenditure Accounts, Sponsor Highlights.
Private-Sector Workers Paying an Increasing Share of Increasing Premiums
Employment-Based Coverage
Individual Policy 142%
87%
97%
0%
50%
100%
150%
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
Employee (EE) Contribution to Premium Employer (ER) Contribution to Premium
Cumulative Pct. Change, EE Contribution Cumulative Pct. Change, ER Contribution
Cumulative Pct. Change, Total Premium
$2655
Family Policy 146%
114% 122%
0%
50%
100%
150%
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
$6772
$15022
Source: NIHCM analysis of data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, Insurance Component. Data not available for 2007.
$5222
And Facing Higher Out-of-Pocket Costs via Deductibles
$446 $518
$573 $652
$714
$869 $917 $1,025
$1,123
$958 $1,079
$1,143 $1,232
$1,351
$1,658 $1,761
$1,975
$2,220
48%
52%
59% 64%
66%
71% 74%
78% 78%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Average Deductible for those with a Deductible - Individual Policy Average Deductible for those with a Deductible - Family Policy Percent of Enrollees with a Deductible
Source: NIHCM analysis of data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, Insurance Component. Data not available for 2007.
5600 6054 6750 7513 8362 8909 9442 9947 10744 11385 12144 2055
2354 2522
2666 2810
3171 3492
4004 4325
4728 5114
1580 1760
1920 2035
2210 2420
2675 2820
3005 3280
3470
$0
$7,000
$14,000
$21,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Employee Out-of-Pocket Costs
Employee Contribution to Premium
Employer Contribution to Premium
$9,235 $10,168
$11,192 $12,214
$13,382
$14,500 $15,609
$16,771 $18,074
$19,393 $20,728
Health Spending by American Families More Than Doubled in Past Decade
Family of Four, Employer-Based PPO Coverage
Source: NIHCM Foundation analysis of data presented in the annual Milliman Medical Index reports, 2005-2012. Values for component parts for 2002-2005 were estimated using component growth rates reported by Milliman.
Premiums and Deductibles Also Continue to Rise in the Non-Group Market
Individual Policy Family Policy
1728 1776 1896 1908 1932
2004 2196
1721 1864 1972 2084 2326
2632 2935
27%
71%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Mean Annual Premium Mean Deductible
Cumulative Pct. Change - Premium Cumulative Pct. Change - Deductible
NIHCM Foundation analysis of data contained in eHealthInsurance reports “The Costs and Benefits of Individual and Family Health Insurance Plans” (Nov. 2008 and Nov. 2011) and “2009 Summer Cost Report for Individual and Family Policy Holders.”
3888 4128
4392 4428 4596 4704
4968
2294 2486
2610 2760
3128 3531
3879
28%
69%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
High-Deductible Health Plans are Becoming Much More Prevalent
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005
Conventional
HMO
PPO
POS
HDHP/SO
Health Plan Enrollment by Plan Type for Covered Workers
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
Traditional
HDHP
CDHP
Health Plan Enrollment by Plan Type for Privately Insured Individuals
Sources: Kaiser Family Foundation/Health Research & Educational Trust. “Employer Health Benefits, 2012 Annual Survey.” Sept. 2012 (top graph); Employee Benefit Research Institute. “Findings from the 2011 EBRI/MGA Consumer Engagement in Health Care Survey.” EBRI Brief No. 365, Dec. 2011 (bottom graph).
HSA-Qualified HDHP Enrollment Rising Especially in the Large Group Market
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005 Individual Small Group Large Group Group, Size Not Known Market Not Known
13.5
18%
21%
21%
23%
25%
26%
42%
64%
22%
24%
30%
30%
30%
25%
25%
17%
59%
55%
50%
47%
46%
49%
33%
19%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
Individual
Small Group
Large Group
million
1.0
Source: America’s Health Insurance Plans. “January 2012 Census Shows 13.5 Million People Covered by HSA/HDHPs.” May 2012.
Health Care Premiums Growing Quickly as a Share of Personal Income
Source: Schoen C, Fryer AK, Collins SR and Radley DC. “State Trends in Premiums and Deductibles, 2003-2010: The Need for Action to Address Rising Costs.” The Commonwealth Fund, November 2011.
• Employee share of premium up 63%. • Per-person deductibles doubled.
Insurance Premiums Pay for Health Care Services for Enrollees
34 28 14 9 3 12
Physician & Clinical Services
Dental & Other Professional
Services Home Health & Other
LTC Facilities & Services
Personal Health Care Services (88%)
Net Cost of
Insurance
Hospital Care Rx & DME
NIHCM Foundation analysis of data from the 2010 National Health Expenditure Accounts.
Total Private Insurance Premium Revenue = $848.7B
Net Cost of Health Insurance
• Defined by NHEA framework as the difference between premiums collected and benefits paid out
• All administrative costs • Claims processing • Sales and marketing • Member enrollment and customer service • Actuarial analysis and underwriting • Product development and provider contracting • Medical management • Quality improvement • Wellness programs
• Rate credits to policyholders and dividends to stockholders
• Taxes to government
• Additions to reserves
• Profits (or losses)
Private Health Insurance Spending Rose Almost 15 Percent in Five Years
237.5 285.8
211.4 239.4
106.0
121.4 66.3
75.8 19.5
23.5 99.6
102.7
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
2006 2010
Net Cost of Insurance
Home Health & Other LTC Facilities & Services
Dental & Other Professional Services
Prescription Drugs & DME
Physician & Clinical Services
Hospital Care
$848.7 billion
$740.2 billion
14.7% increase
[---
----
- Per
sona
l Hea
lth
Car
e Sp
endi
ng --
----
---]
88
% o
f P
rem
ium
s
$ B
illio
ns
Source: NIHCM Foundation analysis of data from the National Health Expenditure Accounts.
Higher Spending for Hospital & Physician Services Drove More than 70 Percent of the Premium Growth
$48.3
$28.0
$15.4
$9.5 $4.0 $3.1
$108.5
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
Hospital Care Physician & Clinical Services
Prescription Drugs & DME
Dental & Other Professional
Services
Home Health & Other LTC Facilities &
Services
Net Cost of Health Insurance
Total Change in Premiums
45% of net change
26% of net change
14% of net change
9% of net change
4% of net change
2006-2010 % Change 20.3% 13.2% 14.5% 14.3% 20.5% 3.1% 14.7%
3% of net change
Source: NIHCM Foundation analysis of data from the National Health Expenditure Accounts.
2006
to 2
010
Cha
nge
($ B
illio
ns)
97 percent of change in premiums was due to growth in insurers’ spending for health care services
What We Will Cover Today
1. Big Picture Orientation
2. Distribution of Personal Health Care Spending
3. Spending through Government Entitlement Programs
4. Spending through Private Health Insurance
5. What’s Behind the High and Rising Spending?
Deconstructing the Rising Health Spending
Spending increases may be driven by: • unit price effect - rising prices per unit of service • volume or utilization effect - higher volume of
services, due to • more users of services and/or • more services used per capita
• intensity or service mix effect - shift to more expensive mix of services or to more expensive providers
It Really is the Prices (Stupid) Evidence from Massachusetts, 2007-2009
5.7% 6.5%
-2.1%
0.2% 1.0%
7.3% 6.4%
-0.5%
0.3% 1.1%
Change in Total Spending Pure Price Effect
Number of Stays/Services
Shift to More Expensive Providers Service Mix
9.4%
5.1% 3.9%
0.1% 0.2%
4.6% 5.5%
0.1% 0.3%
-1.3% 2007-2008 2008-2009
Inpatient Stays
Hospital Outpatient Care
Source: Massachusetts Division of Health Care Finance and Policy. “Massachusetts Health Care Cost Trends: Trends in Health Expenditures.” June 2011.
Decomposition of Spending Growth for Privately Insured Patients
4.9
7.2 6.2
4.5
5.9
9.6
3.5 3.7
-0.6
2.1 1.6 1.2
-0.3
-4.2
1.0
-0.4
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
Inpatient Care Outpatient Visits Other Outpatient Professional Procedures
Per Capita Spending Unit Price Utilization Intensity
Per
cent
cha
nge,
201
0-20
11
It Really is the Prices (Stupid) Evidence from Several National Payers, 2010-2011
Source: Health Care Cost Institute, “Health Care Cost and Utilization Report: 2011,” September 2012.
U.S. Pays More for Hospital Services Select Countries & Services
$3,093 $4,558
$11,162
$2,591
$21,218
$4,451
$7,962
$34,358
$17,406
$8,917
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
Normal Delivery Appendectomy CABG Hip Replacement Hernia Repair
Australia
Canada
France
Sweden
United States
Source: Koechlin F, Lorenzoni L and Schreyer P. “Comparing Price Levels of Hospital Services Across Countries.” OECD Health Working Papers No. 53, July 2010.
(US$, 2007)
U.S. Pays More for Hospital Services Composite Index, 29 Inpatient Services
57 59 62
85 98
113 114
121 123
140 164
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180
Korea Slovenia
Israel Portugal Finland Canada Sweden France
Australia Italy
United States
Comparative Price Levels, Hospital Services, 2007
OECD Average
U.S. hospital prices 64% higher than OECD average
Source: Koechlin F, Lorenzoni L and Schreyer P. “Comparing Price Levels of Hospital Services Across Countries.” OECD Health Working Papers No. 53, July 2010.
U.S. Pays Physicians More for the Same Services Especially Private Payers and Specialty Care
Primary Care - Office Visit Fees
34
45
59
32 34
46
104
66
129
60
133
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
Public Payers Private Payers
Australia Canada France Germany UK US
Specialty Care – Hip Replacement
1,046
1,943
652
674
1,340 1,251
1,181
2,160
1,634
3,996
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
Public Payers Private Payers
Australia Canada France Germany UK US
Source: Laugesen MJ and Glied SA. “Higher Fees Paid to US Physicians Drive Higher Spending for Physician Services Compared to Other Countries.” Health Affairs, 30(9):1647-56. September 2011.
U.S. Physicians Earn More Particularly Specialists
92,844
187,609
125,104
208,634
95,585
154,380 131,809
202,771
159,532
324,138
186,582
442,450
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$350,000
$400,000
$450,000
$500,000
Primary Care Physicians Orthopedic Surgeons
Australia Canada France Germany UK US
Source: Laugesen MJ and Glied SA. “Higher Fees Paid to US Physicians Drive Higher Spending for Physician Services Compared to Other Countries.” Health Affairs, 30(9):1647-56. September 2011.
Summary and Implications • Health care spending is a heavy and increasingly
unmanageable burden to federal and state governments, employers and individuals.
• Recent slowing in health spending growth offers a ray of hope. But is the slowdown sustainable? • Real and sustained gains in efficiency and value will be needed to offset
the demographic and other pressures driving health spending upward.
• The highly concentrated nature of personal health care expenditures suggests a strategy for controlling spending. But there are real challenges in managing the care of high spending patients.
Summary and Implications (continued)
• Private premium increases are driven by underlying increases in spending for medical care for enrollees. Controlling spending for hospital and physician/clinical services will be essential to moderating growth in private premiums.
• We pay more than other countries for the same services, and rising prices have been the dominant factor behind our growing spending. Attention to these high prices is warranted.
• Sizing the challenge is the easy part. Finding real solutions is much harder.
For more information or additional hard copies of our publications,
please contact me or visit our website:
202-296-4192
www.nihcm.org