milk market situation brussels, 19 january 2012. market situation – 19 january 20122 !!! data from...

Milk Market Situation

Brussels, 19 January 2012

Market Situation – 19 January 2012 2

!!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table !!!

EU Productions

EU-27 Deliveries/Productions development(Jan-Oct 2011 compared to Jan-Oct 2010)

Total Butter+ 1.7%

Cows' Milk Collected+ 2.2%

Skimmed-milk powder+ 12.3%

Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed

milk powder- 3.9%

Cheese+ 0.1%

Fermented milk+ 0.4%

-8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16%

Ev

olu

tio

n e

n %

.

Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat

EU-27 Deliveries/Production developments(Apr-Oct 2011 compared to Apr-Oct 2010)

Total Butter+ 1.8%

Skimmed-milk powder+ 10.9%

Milk powder cream, Whole milk powder and partly skimmed

milk powder- 8.2%

Cheese- 0.3%

Fermented milk+ 0.2%

Cows' Milk Collected+ 1.9%

-13% -11% -9% -7% -5% -3% -1% 1% 3% 5% 7% 9% 11% 13% 15%

Ev

olu

tio

n e

n %


-8.0% to -6.0% -6.0% to -4.0% -4.0% to -2.0% -2.0% to +0.0% +0.0% to +2.0% +2.0% to +4.0% +4.0% to +6.0% +6.0% to +8.0%

+2.0

-7.9

+1.9

-1.1

+2.4

+0.7

+4.8

-7.6+1.8

+6.5

-1.4

+0.2

+5.5

+2.8

-0.2

-3.0

0

-0.2

+4.3

+2.8

+0.4

-2.0+1.1

+0.9

-1.5

-0.6

+1.6



-16.0% to -12.0% -12.0% to -8.0% -8.0% to -4.0% -4.0% to +0.0% +0.0% to +4.0% +4.0% to +8.0% +8.0% to +12.0% +12.0% to +16.0%

+1.6

-8.4

+2.5

-0.8

+2.2

-1.5

+2.7

-8.7+1.5

+5.9

-1.2

+0.2

+4.8

+1.7

-0.1

-1.7

0

-0.3

+4.4

+2.8

+0.4

+0.6+0.9

+1.9

-2.1

-0.7

+0.5


Market Situation – 19 January 2012 5Source: MS’ communications to Eurostat

Monthly Deliveries EU 27

10 000

10 500

11 000

11 500

12 000

12 500

13 000

DecNovOctSepAugJ ulJ unMayAprMarFebJ an

100

0 t

onne

s

2008 2009 2010 2011


EU 15/12 Milk Deliveries and Prices1

49

2

1 3

80

1 5

41

1 5

43

1 7

13

1 6

85

1 6

79

1 6

56

1 5

36

1 4

64

1 3

43

1 4

02

1 4

04

1 2

92

1 4

77

1 5

10

1 6

51

1 6

34

1 6

32

1 6

20

1 5

34

1 4

77

1 4

05

1 4

38

1 3

14

1 4

91

1 4

88

1 6

43

1 6

24

1 6

73

1 6

63

1 5

79

1 5

55

1 4

37

9 6

62

9 0

35 10

21

0

10

35

5

10

69

6

10

05

7

9 8

42

9 4

66

8 8

69

9 1

25

8 8

16

9 3

14

9 5

28

8 9

43 10

20

7

10

31

9

10

92

0

10

28

8

10

04

9

9 7

86

9 3

63

9 5

59

9 1

46

9 4

58

9 8

57

9 2

17 10

54

9

10

69

3

11

04

4

10

35

7

10

36

1

9 9

80

9 4

93

9 5

81

9 2

06

1 3

55

23

.36

21

.55

21

.06

21

.12

20

.93

20

.52

20

.99

21

.67

22

.10

22

.89 24

.84

25

.56

26

.05

26

.39

26

.68

26

.60

26

.00

25

.87

25

.99

26

.84

28

.25 3

0.4

4

30

.77

30

.96

31

.11

30

.93

30

.45

30

.48

30

.04

29

.60

30

.14

30

.44

30

.33

29

.52

27

.33

25

.06

24

.95

25

.18

25

.51

26

.32

26

.98

27

.57

29

.03

28

.81

29

.40

28

.98

28

.32

28

.41

29

.15

30

.25

31

.33

32

.53

33

.38

33

.50

33

.81

33

.74

33

.63

33

.73

33

.68

33

.32

33

.67

34

.35

34

.85

35

.10

35

.63

35

.71

36

.04

30

.12

28

.82

30

.09

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Ja

n 0

9

Fe

b 0

9

Ma

r 0

9

Ap

r 0

9

Ma

y 0

9

Ju

n 0

9

Ju

l 09

Au

g 0

9

Se

p 0

9

Oc

t 0

9

No

v 0

9

De

c 0

9

Ja

n 1

0

Fe

b 1

0

Ma

r 1

0

Ap

r 1

0

Ma

y 1

0

Ju

n 1

0

Ju

l 10

Au

g 1

0

Se

p 1

0

Oc

t 1

0

No

v 1

0

De

c 1

0

Ja

n 1

1

Fe

b 1

1

Ma

r 1

1

Ap

r 1

1

Ma

y 1

1

Ju

n 1

1

Ju

l 11

Au

g 1

1

Se

p 1

1

Oc

t 1

1

No

v 1

1

Pro

du

ctio

ns

in 1

000

To

ns

-

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

20 000

22 000

24 000

26 000

28 000

Pri

ces

in E

UR

/100

kg Raw Milk Deliveries (EU-12)

Raw Milk Deliveries (EU-15)

Weighted average Milk price (EU-12)

Weighted average Milk price (EU-15)

Source : Eurostat, Reg. (EC) No 429/2010 Art. 3


Sources : MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 & 479/2010, LTO website

Milk Prices Evolution (up to November 2011)

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

48

50

Ap

r 0

1

Oct

01

Ap

r 0

2

Oct

02

Ap

r 0

3

Oct

03

Ap

r 0

4

Oct

04

Ap

r 0

5

Oct

05

Ap

r 0

6

Oct

06

Ap

r 0

7

Oct

07

Ap

r 0

8

Oct

08

Ap

r 0

9

Oct

09

Ap

r 1

0

Oct

10

Ap

r 1

1

Oct

11

EUR/100 kg

LTO Weighted Average Milk Price * (standardized 4.2% fat)

Weighted EU Average (real fat content)

EU Milk Equivalent Price (based on EU SMP and Butter prices)

LTO : Land- en Tuinbouworganisatie Nederland (http://www.milkprices.nl/)


EU Milk Prices(November 2011 compared to November 2010)

53.9

48.346.2

45.4

39.038.0 38.0 37.3 37.2 36.9 36.5

35.2 35.134.2 34.0 33.7 33.2 32.8 32.5 32.4 32.3 32.0 32.0

30.2 29.9 29.7 29.4 28.9

14

18

22

26

30

34

38

42

46

50

54

CY MT EL FI IT AT IE NL SE DE DK EU27

LU BE FR BG UK SI ES PT SK EE CZ LT LV HU RO PL

in E

UR

/10

0 k

g

Milk Price 2010 Milk Price 2011

Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 479//2010

NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk, others to milk with real fat and protein content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/2010

Estimates for BG and CZ


Monthly EU SMP Prices

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

2009 2010 2011 2012 I P 2009

Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010


EU SMP Prices(up to 15/01/2012)

308

249238 237 236 234 234 233 226 218

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

LV UK BE DE SK EU 27 CZ FR PL IE

in E

UR

/10

0 k

g

Source: MS’ communications under reg. 479/2010


Monthly EU BUTTER Prices

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

EU

R/1

00 k

g

2009 2010 2011 2012 I P 2009



EU Butter Prices (up to 15.01.2012)

402 396

354 352 352 346 340

501

332333334346

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

450

475

500

SK GB LV IE EU 27 BE DE NL PT ES CZ PL

EU

R/1

00 k

g

Butter Price of Reg. 479/2010

Butter Intervention price

I.P. = 221.75

Source: MS’ communications under reg. 479/2010


Source: MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010

EU Quotations of Butter and SMP(EU average based on MS communication and weighted by production)

351.7

233.7

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

440

Jan

03

Apr

03

Jul

03

Oct

03

Jan

04

Apr

04

Jul

04

Oct

04

Jan

05

Apr

05

Jul

05

Oct

05

Jan

06

Apr

06

Jul

06

Oct

06

Jan

07

Apr

07

Jul

07

Oct

07

Jan

08

Apr

08

Jul

08

Oct

08

Jan

09

Apr

09

Jul

09

Oct

09

Jan

10

Apr

10

Jul

10

Oct

10

Jan

11

Apr

11

Jul

11

Oct

11

Jan

12

in E

UR/1

00 k

g

.

BUTTER SMP


Monthly EU WMP Prices

150170190210230250270290310330350370390410

Jan Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2009 2010 2011 2012



Monthly EU CHEDDAR Prices

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

400

420

Jan Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2009 2010 2011 2012

Monthly EU EDAM Prices

200220240260280300320340360380400420

Jan Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2011 2009 2010 2012



Monthly EU WheyPowder Prices

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2011 2009 2010 2012



EU Income of manufacturing of Cheese/Wheypowder, SMP/Butter and WMP/Butter in EUR

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Ma

r 0

7

Ma

y 0

7

Jul 0

7

Se

p 0

7

No

v 0

7

Jan

08

Ma

r 0

8

Ma

y 0

8

Jul 0

8

Se

p 0

8

No

v 0

8

Jan

09

Ma

r 0

9

Ma

y 0

9

Jul 0

9

Se

p 0

9

No

v 0

9

Jan

10

Ma

r 1

0

Ma

y 1

0

Jul 1

0

Se

p 1

0

No

v 1

0

Jan

11

Ma

r 1

1

Ma

y 1

1

Jul 1

1

Se

p 1

1

No

v 1

1

Jan

12

EU

R f

or

10

00

kg

of

Milk

Cheese/Butter/Whey

SMP/Butter

WMP/Butter

Source: Reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010


WORLD Income of manufacturing of Cheese/Wheypowder, SMP/Butter and WMP/Butter (in USD).

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

Ma

r 0

7

Ma

y 0

7

Jul 0

7

Se

p 0

7

No

v 0

7

Jan

08

Ma

r 0

8

Ma

y 0

8

Jul 0

8

Se

p 0

8

No

v 0

8

Jan

09

Ma

r 0

9

Ma

y 0

9

Jul 0

9

Se

p 0

9

No

v 0

9

Jan

10

Ma

r 1

0

Ma

y 1

0

Jul 1

0

Se

p 1

0

No

v 1

0

Jan

11

Ma

r 1

1

Ma

y 1

1

Jul 1

1

Se

p 1

1

No

v 1

1

Jan

12

US

D f

or

10

00

kg

of

Milk

Cheese/Butter/Whey

SMP/Butter

WMP/Butter

Source: USDA


USD/EUR

1.2831

Source: European Central Bank


EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Butter

3 875

4 560

3 590

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000O

ct 0

4

Jan

05

Apr

05

Jul 0

5

Oct

05

Jan

06

Apr

06

Jul 0

6

Oct

06

Jan

07

Apr

07

Jul 0

7

Oct

07

Jan

08

Apr

08

Jul 0

8

Oct

08

Jan

09

Apr

09

Jul 0

9

Oct

09

Jan

10

Apr

10

Jul 1

0

Oct

10

Jan

11

Apr

11

Jul 1

1

Oct

11

Jan

12

Pri

ces

in U

SD

/to

nn

e

Avg Oceania Butter quotation

Avg EU Butter internal Price

Avg US Butter quotation

Source: MS’ communications under regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010 & USDA market news


EU/US/Oceania Quotations of SMP

3 475

2 980

3 260

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

Oct

04

Jan

05

Apr

05

Jul 0

5

Oct

05

Jan

06

Apr

06

Jul 0

6

Oct

06

Jan

07

Apr

07

Jul 0

7

Oct

07

Jan

08

Apr

08

Jul 0

8

Oct

08

Jan

09

Apr

09

Jul 0

9

Oct

09

Jan

10

Apr

10

Jul 1

0

Oct

10

Jan

11

Apr

11

Jul 1

1

Oct

11

Jan

12

Pri

ces

in U

SD

/to

nn

e

Avg Oceania SMP quotation

Avg EU SMP internal Price

Avg US SMP quotation



EU/US/Oceania Quotations of WMP

3 638

3 710

3 910

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000O

ct 0

4

Jan

05

Apr

05

Jul 0

5

Oct

05

Jan

06

Apr

06

Jul 0

6

Oct

06

Jan

07

Apr

07

Jul 0

7

Oct

07

Jan

08

Apr

08

Jul 0

8

Oct

08

Jan

09

Apr

09

Jul 0

9

Oct

09

Jan

10

Apr

10

Jul 1

0

Oct

10

Jan

11

Apr

11

Jul 1

1

Oct

11

Jan

12

Pri

ces

in U

SD

/to

nn

e

Avg Oceania WMP quotation

Avg EU WMP internal Price

Avg US WMP quotation



EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Cheddar

4 088

4 260

3 520

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

5 000

5 500

6 000

Oct

04

Jan

05

Apr

05

Jul 0

5

Oct

05

Jan

06

Apr

06

Jul 0

6

Oct

06

Jan

07

Apr

07

Jul 0

7

Oct

07

Jan

08

Apr

08

Jul 0

8

Oct

08

Jan

09

Apr

09

Jul 0

9

Oct

09

Jan

10

Apr

10

Jul 1

0

Oct

10

Jan

11

Apr

11

Jul 1

1

Oct

11

Jan

12

Pri

ces

in U

SD

/to

nn

e

Avg OceaniaCheddar quotation

Avg EU Cheddar internal Price

Avg US Cheddar quotation



BUTTER Exports

31 51220 042

115 372

86 608

197 950191 886

49 78441 806

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

2010 2011

EU-27 (Jan - Nov)New Zealand (Jan-Oct )Australia (Jan-Nov )United States (Jan-Nov )


BUTTEROIL Exports

25 617

118 284

13 92310 644

24 514

119 110

16 2739 951

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

2010 2011



SMP Exports

118 784 126 697

402 558

346 339

474 384

279 055271 600

349 964

-50 000

50 000

150 000

250 000

350 000

450 000

550 000

2010 2011



WMP Exports

364 102

858 293

50 148 18 681

413 186

750 448

105 820102 479

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

800 000

900 000

1 000 000

2010 2011



CHEESESExports

619 041 624 42721

9 59

2

.

207

172

.

145

799

.

152

884

.

155 010205 366

0

100 000

200 000

300 000

400 000

500 000

600 000

700 000

2010 2011



BUTTER Imports

50 58653 218

32 53435 341

5 2965 228

16 49913 695

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

2010 2011

EU-27 (Jan - Nov)United States (Jan-Nov )Russia (Jan-Oct )China (Jan-Nov )


BUTTEROIL Imports

2 7323 999

20 954

7 596

2 275

8 037

29 607

15 728

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

2010 2011

EU-27 (Jan - Nov)United States (Jan-Nov )Mexico (Jan-Oct )China (Jan-Nov )


SMP Imports

79 526

113 807

90 728

3 801 441

23 970

51 721 53 334

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

2010 2011

EU-27 (Jan - Nov)

Russia (Jan-Oct )

China (Jan-Nov )

Algeria (Jan-Jul )


WMP Imports

1 428

140 476

291 087 299 600

1 950

101 023

0 0

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

2010 2011

EU-27 (Jan - Nov)

Algeria (Jan-Jul )

#N/A

China (Jan-Nov )


CHEESESImports

74 379 67 407

236 342 238 915

179 609193 216

123 491 129 454

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

2010 2011

EU-27 (Jan - Nov)Russia (Jan-Oct )Japan (Jan-Nov )United States (Jan-Nov )


Adjusted U.S. milk production (months of constant length)

6 600

6 800

7 000

7 200

7 400

7 600

7 800

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan-Nov 2011 compared to 2010 : + 1.6% (real monthly production)

in t

on

nes

.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: USDA

U.S. milk production

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec



U.S. milk production

6 000

6 200

6 400

6 600

6 800

7 000

7 200

7 400

7 600

7 800

8 000Ja

n

Feb

Mar

Apr

May Ju

n

Jul

Aug

Sep Oct

Nov

Dec


in t

on

nes

.

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Source: USDA


Source: Dairy Australia

Australian milk production

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

1 100

1 200Ju

l

Au

g

Sep Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

Jul-Oct 2011/12 compared to 2010/11 : + 2.8%

in t

on

nes

.

2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12


Source: DCANZ - Fonterra

NZ milk production

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500Ju

n

Jul

Au

g

Sep Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun-Oct 2011/12 compared to 2010/11 : + 10.4%

in t

on

nes

.

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12

milk market situation brussels, 19 january 2012. market situation – 19 january 20122 !!! data from...

Documents

usda market news slide

usda slide

eurostat slide

milk market situation

cz slide

ms communications

dairy australia slide

lto website slide