milngavie sept 2014 - baldernock garden · napoleon in russia 1812 agincourt 1415 •francis...
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Milngavie Sept 2014 Alex Hill, Chief Advisor’s Office
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Milgavie • Perspective History & Sceptics
• Future World
• Future Scotland
• What Next?
History & Weather
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“Marching through the middle of the mud where they sank up to their knees.”
• The Spanish Armada July 1588
Napoleon in Russia 1812
Agincourt 1415 •Francis Beaufort
•Vice Admiral Robert Fitzroy
•Board of Trade
•1st World War
•Air Ministry 1920
•1st radio broadcast
•NWP & Richardson1922
Group Captain Sir James Martin Stagg D-Day Forecasting for Overlord
What have you done today?
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Climate Change – The problem of persuasion
• It’s not getting warmer!
• We’ve been here before
• It’s the sun wot did it
• I’m confused
• I don’t believe it!!
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Evidence Evidence!
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I’m Confused
“The effects of climate change is a bit like crystal ball gazing with some widespread and varying predictions for the future”. ACPOS 2007
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Hmmmm!
Kilbirnie 1st Aug 2008
WG 1 Atmospheric CO2
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Future World
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Attribution of climate change impacts
AR5 WG 2 Major Crops
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WG 2 Health impacts
• Up to 2050’s Exacerbation
• VH Confidence
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• Towards 2100 - Increase in ill-health especially in developing regions
•high confidence.
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WG2 Summary
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• Focused on the risks from climate variability and change
• Changes in climate have caused impacts on natural and human systems
• Adaptation experience is accumulating and can reduce the risks
• Discussed future risk to people, infrastructure, natural systems and economies
J Roff
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WG 3 Summary
GHG Emissions continue to rise Much of the increase is driven by increased wealth & population Very unlikely to stay below 2C without CCS Costs are uncertain
Mitigation & Adaptation must go hand in hand Global, regional and local changes Changes in other climate variables Long term trends and changes in extremes
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2ºC rise Links & Consequences
2 deg map to go here
Current City population • 3-10 million • 10-20 million
Change in temperature from pre-industrial climate
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Some risk of melting
ice
Ocean Acidification
Forest fire
Reduced crops
Forest fire
Some increased
crops
More heatwaves
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4ºC rise Links & Consequences 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Current City population • 3-10 million • 10-20 million
Melting ice
Ocean Acidification
Rainforest loss
Reduced crops
Forest fire
Increased drought
Stronger tropical storms
Methane release
More heatwaves
Global Supply Chain –Thinking About The Future
www.emeraldinsight.com
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2050 - Sour Grapes? http://www.pnas.org
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Example; Coffee Growth
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Example; Coffee Production
1kg needs 90,000 litres of water 1 Kilowatt hour / Cup www.thecoffeguide.org
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Recent
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Future Scotland
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Impacts Scotland Effect
Summer Temperatures
Winter Temperatures
Winter Rainfall
Summer Rainfall
Seasonal Weather Patterns
Sea Level
Impact • Agriculture • Biodiversity and ecosystem
resilience • Built environment • Business and industry • Emergency and rescue
services • Energy • Forests and forestry • Health and wellbeing • Marine and fisheries • Spatial planning and land use • Transport • Water resource management
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The Future UKCP09
UKCP09 is big. Really big. You wont believe just how vastly, hugely, mindbogglingly big it is. (with apologies to Douglas Adams & Hitchikers Guide to the Galaxy)
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UKCP09
Three different emission scenarios
Seven different timeframes
25km grid, 16 admin regions, 23 river-basins and 9 marine regions
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Increase in probability of extremes in a warmer climate • Temperature now
Probability of
occurrence
Hot temperature
extremes Cold temperature
extremes
(After IPCC 2007 & Karl et al. 2008)
• Temperature in future
Fewer cold
extremes
More hot extremes
More record hot extremes
Cold threshold
Average Hot threshold
New average
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Warmest day
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Warmest night
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IMPACT
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observations Met Office Projections
2040s
2060s Eu
rope
Tem
p an
omal
y (w
rt 1
961-
90)
°C
2003
2 deg c
Ave
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UKCP09 Some Outputs
• Temperature difference for the warmest day summer in the 2080s
• High Emissions Scenario
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UKCP09 + Met Office
Change in minimum temperature by 2041-2050
Climate change Climate change + UHI
War
mer
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Summer 2003
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
01-Jul 08-Jul 15-Jul 22-Jul 29-Jul 05-Aug 12-Aug 19-Aug 26-Aug
no. o
f dea
ths
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
tem
pera
ture
o C
Average daily deaths 1998-2002
ONS Estimated daily deaths 2003
Maximum temperature (London)
2000 extra deaths in the UK
Peaks in death rate coincides with peaks in temperatures
Average daily deaths
Daily deaths 2003
Maximum temperature (London)
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Some Output Winter Rain 2040s
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Some Output Winter Rain 2080s
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UKCP09 + Met Office
1980’s 2080’s Total rainfall in an event with a 1 in 30 year return period
wet
ter
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0
1
2
3
4
5Low emissions
Medium emissions
High emissions
Adapting now, mitigating for the future?
Cha
nge
in te
mpe
ratu
re in
so
uth
east
Eng
land
(°C
)
2050’s 2080’s
Adaptation
Mitigation
2020’s
IPCC 20C
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What happens next?
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Adaptation, Resilience and Preparedness
Increasing vulnerability to natural climate variability
CC - Next 20-30 years is already committed
• regional and local changes in climate?
• hazardous weather?
• natural climate variability influence on climate change and Vice Versa?
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Mind The Gap
• Weather
•Severe events
•1 to 10 days
•Reduced skill with time
•Climate Change
•CP09 – no events
•50+ years
•No skill < 30yrs
The G
ap
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Mind the Gap
• Natural Variability
• Atlantic Multi-decadal Variations
• Arctic Sea Ice changes
• El Nino/La Nina
• Solar output
The G
ap
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What we do today
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What you should do tomorrow ( not to scale! )
Impact • Agriculture • Biodiversity and ecosystem resilience • Built environment • Business and industry • Emergency and rescue services • Energy • Forests and forestry • Health and wellbeing • Marine and fisheries • Spatial planning and land use • Transport • Water resource management
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STEP 3 – BASELINE CLIMATE RISK
Aim:
To assess the present risk due to the current weather and climate.
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The Challenge
“The past is a foreign country, they do things differently there”
( L.P. Hartley)
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/guide/ukcp/business_advice/
Bulletin of American Meteorological Society BAMS
• 2011 Weather Extremes & Climate Change
• Climate Attribution
• Human Influence
• Probabilistic
• Stacking the Deck
• Highlights
Texas heat-wave 2011 20 times more likely than 50 years ago in El nino years!
Warm Novembers in UK
60 times more likely
Bulletin of American Meteorological Society BAMS
• 2012 Weather Extremes & Climate Change
• Climate Attribution
• Human Influence
• Probabilistic
• Stacking the Deck
• Highlights
More Like Sandy Expected
Bulletin of American Meteorological Society 2012
Bulletin of American Meteorological Society 2012