How stressed will you be in the next two

hours?Xin Chen

Data source: Spire Inc

What is spire?

Spire wants to be your mindfulness guide!

Tense

Focused Calm

Neutral

Today16:00 - 18:00

Time to work hard!

predictive model

00:00:00 24:00:00

calm focused focused tense tense

16:00:00 18:00:00

0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

16:00:00 18:00:00

# of minutes being tense

00:00:00 24:00:00

calm focused focused tense tense

16:00:00 18:00:00

16:00:00 18:00:00

Prior information: the past 10 days

Posterior: # of minutes being tense today?

Posterior (# of minutes tense 16:00-18:00 today) = Prior(# of minutes tense 16:00-18:00 in previous 10 days)* Lik(today)

Comparing # of minutes tense 16:00-18:00 today to user’s tense baseline

Prior

Today16:00 - 18:00

Time to work hard!

mindtrainr.tech

# of minutes being tense 16:00-18:00 (in proportion)

67% accuracy

Xin ChenComputational Biology Postdoc Computational Biology PhD

Xin ChenComputational Biology Postdoc Computational Biology PhD

0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

Model setup00:00:00 24:00:00

16:00:00 18:00:00

tense

16:00:00 18:00:00

16:00:00 18:00:00

?

1. Within given time range, how many minutes is likely to be tense for this user?

2. Is the total time of being tense within the 120 mins significantly higher/low than the user’s average level?

today

the past 10 days

Bayesian function and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Posterior Probability(tense between 16:00-18:00) = Prior * LikSearching for the maximum values

for posterior probability

● Multiple chains

● One million generations

● Test convergence

Convergenceeffective sample size is {'p': 833}effective sample size is {'p': 614}effective sample size is {'p': 579}

Gelman_rubin test:{'p': 0.9997 }{'p': 0.9997 }{'p': 0.9997 }

Geweke test

Posterior distributionCalm

Focus

Tense