Minnesota Twins Daily Clips

Tuesday, January 17, 2017

On the road for winter caravan, Twins do best to sell hope. Star Tribune (Neal III) p. 1 Hector Santiago is important to the Twins, but what should they expect? Star Tribune (Rand) p. 2 Puerto Rico figures to lean significantly on Twins for World Baseball Classic. Star Tribune (Neal III) p. 3 Souhan: Don't look to Knoblauch deal as reason to trade Dozier. Star Tribune (Souhan) p. 4 Hennepin County to pay off Target Field debt a decade early. Star Tribune (Smith) p. 5 Reusse: Twins fantasy camp a welcome respite for ALS patient. Star Tribune (Reusse) p. 6 Twins pitcher Gibson avoids arbitration, gets raise to $2.9 million. Star Tribune (Miller) p. 7 New Twins management says 'expect more activity' on roster in coming weeks. Star Tribune (Miller) p. 8 Twins slugger Byung Ho Park taking swings again. Pioneer Press (Berardino) p. 9 Twins avoid arbitration with all four remaining pitchers. Pioneer Press (Berardino) p. 9 Twins open up annual Winter Caravan. MLB (Bollinger) p. 11 Santiago among 4 Twins to avoid arbitration. MLB (Bollinger) p. 11 2016 analysis: The highs and lows of Brian Dozier’s incredible season. ESPN 1500 (Wetmore) p. 11 Would Mauer Detractors rest easier if the Twins said this out loud? ESPN 1500 (Wetmore) p. 13 Will the Twins surpass a $100 million payroll this year? ESPN 1500 (Wetmore) p. 14 Wetmore’s projected 25-man Twins roster for Opening Day 2017. ESPN 1500 (Wetmore) p. 16 Zulgad: 3-pack of predictions for the Twins on Dozier, Mauer and a free-agent slugger. ESPN 1500 (Zulgad) p. 18 Reports: 4 more Twins get salary raises. ESPN 1500 (Wetmore) p. 20 Twins agree to deals with Gibson, Santiago, Pressly, Kintzler. FOX Sports (AP) p. 20 Minnesota Twins Surprise By Signing Chris Gimenez. FOX Sports (Wessels) p. 21

On the road for winter caravan, Twins do best to sell hope La Velle E. Neal III| Star Tribune | January 17, 2017 HUTCHINSON, MINN. – As soon as the floor was opened for questions at the McLeod County Fairgrounds on Monday, a woman in Twins gear stood up with one for manager Paul Molitor. “What is going to happen with Brian Dozier?” Well, that didn’t take long. The annual Twins winter caravan kicked off Monday, with Molitor anticipating some questions, such as ones about his All-Star second baseman. Dozier has received interest from several clubs, notably the Dodgers, but remains with the Twins. Chief Baseball Officer Derek Falvey and General Manager Thad Levine want a substantial return for a middle infielder who hit 42 home runs last season and is set to make a mere $15 million over the next two seasons. The club has indicated that it is ready to move on after not getting a satisfactory offer. “I spoke to Brian last week,” Molitor told the fan. “I said you should feel good about the fact that you’re at a level in your career where what happens to you is important to all baseball fans. For Twins fans who have grown accustomed to seeing him play at a high level the past few years, I plan on having him for spring training. That’s how we are going forward.” The group of about 100 fans applauded.

2

But there’s plenty of caravan left, and the Twins have more explaining to do after going 59-103 last season, the worst season for the franchise since its arrival to Minnesota in 1961. After the Twins lost 24 more games than they did in 2015, out went longtime GM Terry Ryan and in came the young executive duo of Falvey and Levine. So far, free-agent catcher Jason Castro has been the biggest name brought into the team. Yup, many of the culprits responsible for last year are back. And Molitor will spend the caravan — then TwinsFest, Jan. 27-29 at Target Field — attempting to explain why things will be better in 2017. Molitor on Monday was joined by relievers Ryan Pressly and Brandon Kintzler, with television play-by-play announcer Dick Bremer serving as the host. The group made three stops, in Hutchinson, New Ulm and Mankato. Another group made ended Monday in Duluth and will be on the Iron Range today. “We think we have the pieces to turn things around sooner than later,” Bremer said to fans in Hutchinson, “so your patience will be rewarded.” Molitor spoke about conversations he has had with players during the offseason. For instance, he spoke with the agent for third baseman Miguel Sano and came away assured that he has stuck to his workout plan and will be motivated to come in and prove he can hold down third base after failing to adapt to right field last season. Molitor also spoke of how he looks for the young core of players to continue to develop, and how he hopes pitchers Phil Hughes (thoracic outlet syndrome) and Glen Perkins (torn labrum) will return from surgeries that knocked them out for most of last season. While looking at Pressly and Kintzler during the stop at the New Ulm Community Center, Molitor said: “I hope we don’t have to call down [to the bullpen] as much this year. We really had to use them a lot.” Barring a late move for an impact player, Molitor is trying to sell hope based on the improvement of many players already on the roster, as well as better health. And that could be a tough sell to an impatient fan base. “I have a vision of how this can turn around and turn around quickly,” Molitor told a group of about 200 fans in New Ulm. “We’re going to get back out there in a less than a month, and we can’t wait to get back out there and start competing.” Hector Santiago is important to the Twins, but what should they expect? Michael Rand| Star Tribune | January 16, 2017 In a relatively quiet transaction heading into the weekend, the Twins made a pretty significant pitching decision. Hector Santiago, acquired in a mid-year trade for Ricky Nolasco, settled with the team on a one-year, $8 million deal for 2017. He pitched poorly immediately after the trade and had a 5.58 ERA with the Twins, though his final seven starts (3-2 with a 3.19 ERA) were much better. At that price and at age 29, the left-handed Santiago figures to be a good candidate to make the Twins’ starting rotation in 2017. If the group of five includes Ervin Santana, Phil Hughes, Kyle Gibson, Santiago and a younger pitcher like Tyler Duffey or Jose Berrios, there are question marks galore. Can Santana, 34, stay productive? Can Hughes and Gibson bounce back from disappointing 2016 seasons? Can a young pitcher step up. For Santiago — who has been relatively consistent over the past four years and has an ERA under 4 in more than 600 innings as a starter — the question is a little different. Local cat enthusiast/Baseball Prospectus editor in chief Aaron Gleeman, who is good at making the numbers DANCE for him, notes that Santiago has outperformed projections in recent years — leading him to believe Santiago’s stats from 2013-2016 are “smoke and mirrors” that will cause an inevitable tumble at some point. Baseball Prospectus projects Santiago will have a 5.07 ERA this season. Projections, though, are built on large data sets that focus on how a pitcher who pitches like Hector Santiago should fare. That leads to “outliers,” or in plain speak “times when predictions fail.”

3

In this case, the projections probably work against Santiago because he is terrible at preventing walks and home runs. He led the AL in walks allowed in 2016 (79) and home runs allowed in 2015 (29). That’s a bad combination, and it’s the main reason his FIP (fielding independent pitching, a measure of a pitcher if you take defense out of the equation) is almost a full run higher than his career ERA (4.73 vs. 3.84). But that career ERA is very decent (better than the MLB average for the same span). He’s flirted with danger but escaped because he can get strikeouts (8 of them per 9 innings in his career) and his clutch stats are quite good (batters have just a .604 career OPS vs. Santiago with runners in scoring position, compared to .763 with nobody on base). So should the Twins expect Santiago to produce as he has produced (an ERA just short of 4) or should they expect Santiago to produce as he is projected to produce (with an ERA closer to 5)? It probably depends on what you think of performance in the clutch. If you believe some pitchers have a knack for getting into trouble but also working their way out of it, you believe in Santiago. If you think “clutch” has a lot to do with luck and that Santiago is bound to pay for his combination of walks and homers, you don’t believe in Santiago. The Twins are clearly banking on the former. Given limited options for upgrading the rotation, new bosses Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are making an $8 million investment in Santiago’s body of work. If they’re right and Santiago continues to outpace projections, it will look smart. If they’re wrong, he’ll be overpaid and ineffective. The margin of right or wrong here probably isn’t the difference between making or missing the postseason for the 2017 Twins. But in a rotation filled with question marks, the number of pitchers who turn in best-case seasons will have a major impact on how the Twins fare. And Santiago might be the most interesting of the bunch. Puerto Rico figures to lean significantly on Twins for World Baseball Classic La Velle E. Neal III | Star Tribune | January 16, 2017 NEW ULM, MINN. – Rosters for the upcoming World Baseball Classic should be released this week, and the Twins expect to see some of their players leave spring training to take part in the event. Team Puerto Rico, in particular, looks to tap into the Twins for a few players. Manager Paul Molitor said Monday he expects righthander Jose Berrios, outfielder Eddie Rosario and first baseman Kennys Vargas to play for the team. Lefthander Hector Santiago is expected to be chosen for the team as well. “It’s a great opportunity for them,” Molitor said during the Twins winter caravan’s stop at New Ulm. The Twins have not received any indication of how much Berrios, 22, will be used. Berrios, who made two appearances for Puerto Rico in the 2013 WBC, pitched 166⅓ innings in 2015 and 169⅔ in 2016. Under new rules this year, teams will be allowed to add two pitchers after each round. That would make it easier for stars such as Clayton Kershaw to participate, and it would mean teams wouldn’t have to rely on pitchers such as Berrios throughout the tournament. As for other Twins players, designated hitter Byung Ho Park still is deciding if he is going to play for South Korea; Eduardo Escobar is expected to fill a utility role for Team Venezuela; Ervin Santana will not pitch for the Dominican Republic; and second baseman Brian Dozier was not selected to play for Team USA, despite hitting 42 home runs last season. Because of the WBC, spring training camps are opening earlier. Twins pitchers and catchers report Feb. 14. WBC pool play begins March 6, with the championship game March 22 at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles. New facility opening The Twins and Phillies will open a $20 million training facility in Boca Chica, Dominican Republic on Tuesday. Each team will have three fields, one agility field and a dormitory that will hold up to 78 prospects. The teams will share some operational costs. Twins General Manager Thad Levine is in Boca Chica for the ceremony. Santana, Jorge Polanco and Danny Santana will be on hand, and Miguel Sano might join them.

4

It will be the final official Twins event for executive Bill Smith, their former GM who served as a special assistant to the president and general manager last season. Smith is leaving the club at the end of the month. Etc. • Twins Chief Baseball Officer Derek Falvey is in Fort Myers, Fla., as the club prepares to hold meetings for all its scouts — the “scout summit” — this week at their year-round headquarters. • While the Twins avoided arbitration with righthander Brandon Kintzler by agreeing to a one-year, $2.925 million contract, the sides never discussed more than a one-year deal. Souhan: Don't look to Knoblauch deal as reason to trade Dozier Jim Souhan| Star Tribune | January 14, 2017 The Twins have adopted the correct approach to Brian Dozier. They are absolutely not going to trade him unless they trade him, in which case they were going to trade him all along. Lately, the new front office has tried to becalm Dozier with indications that he will not be dealt any time soon. This is likely true and likely a truth of convenience because they aren’t receiving worthwhile offers. To summarize their position: They should trade him for three can’t-miss prospects, at least two of whom need to be pitchers, which probably won’t happen soon if ever, so of course they should keep him. The logic behind the Twins trading their best player is that they were terrible with him at his best and they can be terrible with him again, so they may as well use him to bolster the most important position in baseball. The Twins desperately need starting pitching. Dozier is the only tradeable asset that will bring quality pitching. Often, this argument is buttressed by one of the best trades in franchise history. In 1998, Twins General Manager Terry Ryan traded Chuck Knoblauch to the Yankees for Cristian Guzman, Eric Milton and Brian Buchanan. That trade began a series of moves that led to a decade of success. But that trade — of an excellent second baseman for prospects — isn’t as analogous to a potential Dozier trade as you would think. Knoblauch was making $6 million a year. Dozier will make $6 million this year. But the dollars are not comparable in real-world value or context. The Twins payroll in 1997 was $32 million. In 1998, it was $22 million, as owner Carl Pohlad reacted to an impasse in stadium negotiations by opting for “studio baseball” — paying the minimum to field a team. The Twins payroll in 2016 was roughly $105 million. The 1998 Twins preferred not to afford Knoblauch. The 2017 Twins can easily afford Dozier. The second difference between the two is temperment. Knoblauch was a brilliant player who had made enemies throughout the franchise with his behavior. Dozier is a welcomed presence in the clubhouse and organization. In 1998, Twins ownership was considering moving or contracting — or at least considering threatening moving or contracting — as a way of spurring stadium talks. The fan base was apathetic and happy to avoid spending summer nights under a Teflon roof watching bad baseball. Today, the Twins fan base is more apoplectic than apathetic. Fans are livid that the Twins followed a decade of competitiveness with a decade of incompetence. While it would be silly for anyone to assume that a new ballpark would ensure success, fans feel that continued success was implied in the Twins’ stadium pitch. The Twins roster begs a renewed rebuilding effort. The Twins’ position in the marketplace demands an immediate recovery. The front offices, too, worked under different parameters. Ryan had performed poorly as a GM in his first three seasons. The Yankees probably weren’t expecting Ryan to pluck two minor-leaguers from their system who would become All-Stars.

5

The Knoblauch trade began a stretch of seven years in which Ryan and his staff persistently chose excellent players from the lower minor leagues of other organizations. Ryan snuck up on the Yankees and made a transformative deal. New baseball bosses Derek Falvey and Thad Levine are new to their jobs and the rest of baseball senses desperation. The perception is that Falvey and Levine have to trade Dozier, yet Falvey and Levine can’t afford to botch their first deal, setting a precedent for future negotiations. In theory, the Twins should trade Dozier and build a pitching staff that might enable them to contend in two or three years. In the current reality, Falvey and Levine will have trouble trading Dozier for proper value. Given the uncertain long-term health and progress of most pitching prospects, the Twins might get lucky and fail to make a trade. Keeping their best player and best personality might do more for their franchise than treating him like a latter-day Knoblauch. Hennepin County to pay off Target Field debt a decade early Kelly Smith| Star Tribune | January 14, 2017 Hennepin County still is on pace to pay off Target Field debt a decade ahead of schedule, officials said last week. The $555 million ballpark and its surrounding infrastructure were built with $350 million in funding from the county, or $675 million total with interest. The county planned to pay it off in 30 years, or by 2037, but now expects to pay the debt by 2027 — a decade early. Excess revenue from the ballpark sales tax, plus lower interest rates, have helped the county save money and pay off bonds sooner than anticipated. The county paid off one of three series of bonds in November, 21 years sooner than the $75 million bond was initially due. And last week, the county refinanced $150 million in bonds, which could be paid off by 2032, five years early. “We’re out to save as much as we can,” said Commissioner Mike Opat, the lead architect of the plan to build Target Field. An early payoff on the debt would mean that taxpayers would see an early end to the sales tax, which equates to 3 cents on every $20 spent. “The sales tax has done OK,” Opat said. “We are also making the move to prepay [rather] than put it in the bank.” Hennepin County issued bonds and levied the 0.15 percent sales tax to cover its payments on the ballpark, which opened in 2010. When the economy dipped early on, revenue from the sales tax was below expectations. Since the economy rebounded, sales tax collections have risen. So far, the county has saved $154 million in interest payments, Budget Director Dave Lawless said. “We’re all collectively saving money,” Lawless added. Of the $36 million a year that the countywide sales tax brings in, about $29 million goes to stadium debt. The rest goes toward operations of the Minnesota Ballpark Authority — the public body that manages the ballpark — as well as capital expenses and $4 million annually to maintain county libraries’ weekend hours and fund countywide youth sports grants. The capital reserve fund has been used only once since the ballpark opened, to install LED lights for $1.6 million in 2016. Since the youth sports grants program began in 2009, the county has awarded $17.6 million to 108 facilities, 200 small equipment projects, five playground projects and a swimming lesson pilot project. When the program ends, county officials estimate it will have funded $130 million for youth sports and library programs in the county’s suburbs and Minneapolis. Hennepin County contributed nothing to the construction of the $1.1 billion U.S. Bank Stadium. The public contribution for that stadium, amounting to nearly $500 million, came from the state and the city of Minneapolis.

6

Reusse: Twins fantasy camp a welcome respite for ALS patient Patrick Reusse| Star Tribune | January 13, 2017 FORT MYERS, FLA. – Steve Lufkin played the sports by seasons as a youngster at Washington Park in Richfield, and it was baseball that had the strongest hold on him. "Steve always has been a baseball freak, a Twins freak," said Dave Roiger, a former Minneapolis cop who was a couple of grades ahead of Lufkin in Richfield, and also a Washington Park regular. Steve had a peculiarity that caused consternation with various coaches as he progressed. "There weren't a lot of catchers and I liked the action, being in on every pitch," Lufkin said. "I became the catcher in Little League." Steve let that hang for a moment and added: "A lefthanded catcher …" The reporter standing next to Lufkin looked at him and said: "What are you, a Communist? You can't be a lefthanded catcher." Lufkin laughed and said: "Quite a few people agreed with you, including Brian Kispert, the coach at Richfield. When he first saw me he said: 'You're going to have to find a new position. We're not going to have a lefthanded catcher.' " Slowly, Kispert came off his strong stand for American values, and in his junior season of 1983, Lufkin was installed as the Spartans catcher. Lufkin didn't have as much trouble winning over coaches Ron Wiebold and Randy Stuckey at Gustavus Adolphus. He played 92 games in four seasons for the Gusties, and he also met his wife, Stacy, while on that majestic campus on the top of the hill in St. Peter.  ”I've never thought it should be considered such a disadvantage to have a lefthanded catcher," Lufkin said. "Throwing through a righthanded hitter when a runner is stealing third … that's the big thing, I guess, but how many guys try to steal third?" Lufkin used spirit and determination to overcome the challenge of being a lefthanded catcher. Three decades later, he has a challenge that requires much more of those qualities, and against an opponent that cannot be defeated. In February 2014, Lufkin was found to have amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. When reviewing the symptoms, Steve and Stacy believe it was as much as a year earlier when the disease started to manifest itself in smaller ways for Steve. "There have been considerable advances in making life more comfortable as the disease progresses," Lufkin said. "But as far as life expectancy, it's the same as when Lou Gehrig was diagnosed with ALS in the 1930s: two to five years." Steve was a math teacher and assistant coach at Henry Sibley High for 27 years. As a coincidence, he was diagnosed a few months before the Ice Bucket Challenge became a national phenomenon as a fundraiser for the ALS Association in the summer of 2014. Students and friends started coming to the Lufkin home in Rosemount, dumping buckets of ice water over their heads in the front yard, and then offering donations for ALS research. Roiger had attended the Twins Fantasy Camp at the team's spring training complex for several years. Lufkin had retired as a teacher in June 2016, and Roiger got the idea of getting him to the fantasy camp, to mingle with his Twins heroes and fellow baseball lovers. "I called Stan Dickman, told him about Steve's situation and Stan said, 'You get Steve and his family on board, and we'll make it happen,' " Roiger said. Dickman took over the Twins Fantasy Camp a number of years ago and turned it into an annual success. There are 107 participants this year, and only one in a wheelchair. Steve drove in a van to Florida with Stacy and their oldest son, Isaiah. Jeff Belzer, the car dealer, made a donation to cover expenses for the 3,500-mile driving round trip from the Twin Cities to Fort Myers. There was a draft of players onto eight teams at the start of the week. Jeff Reardon and Frank Viola drafted Lufkin onto their team. Steve has been the scorekeeper.

7

Lufkin can move his arms to a degree, and Viola and camp coordinator Bert Blyleven have flipped him batting practice. "A Hall of Famer and a World Series MVP … that's pretty great," said Steve, with a wide smile. Stacy Lufkin made a point of mentioning the long, heartfelt conversations Reardon has had with her husband. Reardon had his well-publicized emotional problems after the death of his son, and he and Steve have talked philosophically about crisis and dealing with it day-to-day. There also have been many laughs. "This is no pity party," Lufkin said. "Irreverent humor is part of baseball. Frankie [Viola] has been threatening to brush me back if I keep taking those hard swings." On Friday night, Blyleven held the camp's "kangaroo court," where a week of fines are tabulated and assessed, with the proceeds going to a Fort Myers children's hospital. On Thursday, Lufkin already knew fines were coming for being a camp rookie and for being duped into believing an outrageous Blyleven yarn. Here's a confession: After this interview, I relayed a message to Blyleven that Lufkin had been a lefthanded catcher, which had to be worth another $10 fine. Twins pitcher Gibson avoids arbitration, gets raise to $2.9 million Phil Miller | Star Tribune | January 13, 2017 Sixty-seven days after introducing his new baseball-operations tandem, Twins owner Jim Pohlad waits patiently for a resolution on Brian Dozier’s trade market. As tough as this protracted process has been on the Twins’ slugging second baseman and a fan base that has come to admire his personality and grit, it must be emotionally draining for the club’s owner as well. After all, as Pohlad said a year ago at this time that the Twins always seem to be trading off his favorite players. “I can’t say it’s difficult emotionally,” Pohlad told the Pioneer Press after Thursday’s concert announcement that Billy Joel will play Target Field on July 28. “I love Brian Dozier, but nobody loves a 100-loss season.” While the years of club control were different, Pohlad noticed the bounty of highly ranked prospects the Chicago White Sox were able to secure in separate trades a month ago for left-hander Chris Sale and right fielder Adam Eaton. Dozier is only signed through 2018 at a combined $15 million, but like their division rivals the Twins are seeking to set themselves up for the future. “That’s what they want to do, I’m sure,” Pohlad said of chief baseball officer Derek Falvey and general manager Thad Levine. “They want to win. I’m sure they know the value of Brian Dozier to this club, and it’s high. But they also know the value of winning.” Falvey said as much Thursday when explaining why emotion must be separated from the equation when it comes to considering a trade for the Twins’ MVP. “We have two obligations,” Falvey said. “The first and foremost is to the Minnesota Twins to do the best thing by Jim Pohlad, the Pohlad family and this organization. and that’s our goal. That’s always our goal. The second obligation I see is the one we have to our players: to try and treat them as fairly and as honestly as we can.” In addition to keeping Dozier in the loop on trade talks with the Los Angeles Dodgers and other potential suitors, the Twins’ front-office combo has shared details with manager Paul Molitor, who admittedly would prefer to keep Dozier as he enters the final season of a three-year contract. “Here’s a guy who’s on the rise, coming off a (breakthrough) season that potentially could influence our team by bringing back hopefully a plethora of talent,” Molitor said. “To hold your ground is the right thing to do. I would love to have Brian Dozier back, but I also understand that if they receive the value they feel is warranted given the circumstances that they’d have to consider it.” So while the Twins and Dodgers probably won’t be burning as many cell minutes with each other in the coming days just to trample well-worn ground, the fact remains a deal that sends Dozier to Los Angeles remains a phone call (or email) away.

8

Pohlad appreciates why a firm deadline on Dozier’s fate simply can’t be issued. “You may look kind of foolish later on when you go, ‘Oh, you said you weren’t going to,’ and then all of a sudden you do it,” Pohlad said. “But you can’t (stop taking calls) because somebody comes and they say, ‘Oh, this is our final offer,’ but then maybe a week later they have another final offer. So you can never say that. I agree with that philosophy.” Nine years ago then-Twins GM Bill Smith spent all winter fielding offers for two-time Cy Young Award winner Johan Santana before eventually dealing him to the New York Mets for a four-player package headed by Carlos Gomez. That deal wasn’t announced until Feb. 2. Asked whether this Dozier Derby reminds him of the long wait for a Santana deal, Pohlad pleaded amnesia. “When was that?” he said with a grin. “I don’t remember that much at all. I can’t remember yesterday.” Nor, he said, does he get regular updates on names of specific prospects the Twins could receive in return for Dozier. “Absolutely not,” Pohlad said. “They wouldn’t mean much to me anyway unless it was a known (player) — (Jose) Altuve or somebody like that. Then I’m going to go, ‘Yeah, OK.’ ” So don’t expect Pohlad to run to his laptop to fire up the latest YouTube highlights of young right-hander Jose De Leon, widely reported as the linchpin of any Dodgers trade offer for Dozier. “Prospect guys? That’s not going to happen with me,” Pohlad said. “What do I know? I don’t pretend to be an expert at this.” As he did all those years with former GM Terry Ryan, Pohlad plans to put full faith in his baseball people. The difference this time is the detailed data that accompanies trade and signing recommendations. “The analytics side of the system is totally different than it was before,” Pohlad said. “That’s not to say one’s better than the other, but it’s totally different.” If Dozier, for instance, projects to provide roughly 10 Wins Above Replacement worth of value over the next two seasons — roughly $80 million — the Twins need to be satisfied the next six seasons of any prospect-heavy package project to add at least that much value in return. There also would be some obvious adjustments for projected salary differences, but Pohlad sounded comfortable with the sort of new math that’s flying around Twins offices these days. “Yes, I trust those valuations,” Pohlad said, “but I also know and I believe they’ve indicated that there’s a level of subjectivity that comes with this too. It’s not all just put the stuff in your computer and then the answer comes out. They know what they want to get back.” New Twins management says 'expect more activity' on roster in coming weeks Phil Miller | Star Tribune | January 13, 2017 Finally, more than three months into the offseason, the Twins on Thursday held their first news conference of the Falvey-Levine era to reveal a major addition to this summer’s lineup at Target Field. Anybody know if Billy Joel can pitch? The 67-year-old singer will play Minneapolis on July 28, Twins manager Paul Molitor gamely announced, while the ballpark’s baseball tenant is in Oakland. And from the dearth of major transactions executed so far this winter by new baseball bosses Derek Falvey and Thad Levine, a docket of tranquility that includes one major league free-agent signing and zero trades, that squad of traveling Twins might bear a striking and perhaps surprising similarity to last year’s 103-loss club. Not that anyone seems to mind. “They never said they were going to make splashy moves. There was no expectation or instruction to make splashy moves just for the sake of change,” Twins owner Jim Pohlad said. “It’s more important to evaluate how to make the team more consistently competitive over the long haul, and I’m confident that’s what they’re trying to do.”

9

It’s not just the Twins who are proceeding cautiously, after all. The free-agent market has gathered no momentum this winter, so dozens of veteran free agents remain unsigned, one month before spring training camps open. And for all the big names rumored to be available in trade, including Twins second baseman Brian Dozier, only one major star — White Sox ace lefthander Chris Sale — has been dealt. “Given the landscape of players that remain out there, I would expect more activity later this month as we get closer to spring training,” said Falvey, the new Twins chief baseball officer. “We’re in the same boat. We’re looking for opportunities late this offseason, and we have the flexibility to do that. Jim [Pohlad] has been very supportive of that. If an opportunity presents itself, we’ll be ready to strike.” That could be a free agent, and Falvey said he is in touch with agents on a daily basis, monitoring whether contract demands are falling as players grow impatient. He’s willing to change the Twins’ offseason plans if he finds a bargain. “The reality is, we’re standing here today with players still available in free agency that I don’t think any of us would have predicted in October,” Falvey said. “Things change.” One thing that hasn’t: His intention to upgrade the pitching staff, which ranked 29th in the major leagues in ERA in 2016. The new regime might have been expected to take a sledgehammer to the team’s bullpen and perhaps even its starting rotation, but finding and acquiring better pitchers isn’t so simple, Falvey pointed out. So the Twins signed Jason Castro, a catcher renowned for his ability to get borderline pitches called strikes, quickly in the offseason, in hopes that every Twins pitcher will benefit. (Castro didn’t receive an introductory press conference, however.) But as for supplementing the staff from outside? So far, the winter haul amounts to a handful of flawed or injured pitchers — Ryan Vogelsong, Nick Tepesch, Alex Wimmers — signed to minor league contracts. Why stand pat, essentially? Because there isn’t much else available. “Every free-agent market presents its own challenge. It’s supply and demand, and the supply doesn’t always match up with what our fit is,” Falvey said. “We knew going into the offseason there was the potential we would not be active early on with the pitching group. But there remain some names out there.” And the Twins have hopes that the staff’s greatest improvement comes from within. “There are a lot of guys [on the staff] who have only a small amount of experience, and we all know that experience is one of the most important factors in a player’s maturation into a productive major leaguer,” Molitor said, with youngsters like Jose Berrios, J.T. Chargois and Trevor May expected to benefit from 2016’s hard lessons. “It’s not far-fetched to expect better results.” Twins add catcher The Twins’ spring competition to back up Castro became a three-man battle on Thursday when Chris Gimenez, a veteran of four major league teams, agreed to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training. The 34-year-old Gimenez, who hit .216 with four home runs in 68 games last season for Cleveland, joins John Ryan Murphy and Mitch Garver in a three-way race for a backup job. Gimenez, 34, has played for the Indians, Mariners, Rays and Rangers, batting .218 with 15 home runs in 289 games. Twins slugger Byung Ho Park taking swings again Mike Berardino | Pioneer Press | January 13, 2017 South Korean slugger Byung Ho Park, coming off a disappointing debut season in the major leagues, has resumed batting practice in the wake of late August surgery on his right hand. “He’s healthy; he’s hitting,” Twins manager Paul Molitor said Thursday. According to the reports prepared for Molitor by Twins head athletic trainer Dave Pruemer, Park has no limitations on the work he’s able to do at this point of the offseason. As they continue to monitor the free-agent market for offensive help, the Twins are hopeful Park will be able to improve after an injury-marred season that saw him hit just .191 with 12 home runs before being shipped to Triple-A on July 1. “We had quite a good discussion about him at the winter meetings,” Molitor said. “There’s people that are weighing in that have seen him more than others that expect the second time around to be significantly different as far as expectations and the pressure he puts on himself and

10

those type of things. I’m glad he’s healthy. That’s the main thing, and we’ll see how he comes in the second time around.” His contract, which is guaranteed through 2019, includes no provision barring the Twins from exercising his two remaining years of minor-league options. Twins avoid arbitration with all four remaining pitchers Mike Berardino | Pioneer Press | January 13, 2017 It took a little overtime, but the Twins avoided arbitration Friday with all four remaining pitchers that were eligible for the process. Left-handed starter Hector Santiago agreed to an $8 million salary for 2017, while right-hander Kyle Gibson ($2.9 million) also agreed from the projected rotation. A person with direct knowledge confirmed both figures to the Pioneer Press. In addition, the Twins and veteran reliever Brandon Kintzler avoided arbitration at $2.925 million for his final season before reaching free agency, a second source said. There are no incentive bonuses in Kintzler’s deal this time. Reliever Ryan Pressly failed to reach agreement by Friday’s noon Central deadline, but his new agency, the Ballengee Group, and Twins assistant general manager Rob Antony were able to hammer out an agreement at $1.175 million before exchanging figures for a potential arbitration hearing. Pressly was projected at $1.1 million by MLB Trade Rumors. The Twins now have 12 players under contract for a combined $91.05 million. That doesn’t include the $4 million they must pay the Los Angeles Angels toward Ricky Nolasco’s $12 million obligation this year. With staff ace Ervin Santana set to make $13.5 million this season and Phil Hughes’ three-year extension kicking in at $13.2 million per year, the Twins have 80 percent of their projected rotation under contract at a combined $37.6 million. Santiago, acquired from the Los Angeles Angels at the Aug. 1 trade deadline, went 13-10 with a 4.70 earned-run average last year. That included a 5.58 ERA in 11 starts with the Twins, although he rallied after a miserable four-start stretch. Santiago receives a 60-percent raise over the $5 million he earned last season. MLB Trade Rumors had projected him at $8.6 million for 2017. Gibson was projected at $3.5 million in his first crack at arbitration after going 6-11 with a 5.07 ERA last season. He earned $587,500 in 2016 after a strong 2015 season, in which he worked a career-high 194 2/3 innings with a career-best 3.84 ERA. Kintzler, 32, nailed down 17 of 20 save chances after taking over for Kevin Jepsen in early June. A 7.82 ERA over Kintzler’s final 12 outings (from Aug. 29 forward) may have proved costly after he was paid at a base rate of $1.075 million last year, but he still easily outdid his $2.2 million projection. Both Kintzler and Santiago can be free agents next winter and were able to compare themselves to all pitchers in their respective roles, not just those with the same amount of service time. The Twins could have controlled Kintzler through 2018 if they had left him in the minors for just four more days last May. Pressly, a former Rule 5 draft pick who overcame a serious lat injury in 2015, was arbitration eligible for the first time. He finished with a 3.70 ERA in a team-high 72 outings. An original seven-man arbitration class was whittled down with the offseason releases of third baseman Trevor Plouffe and left-hander Tommy Milone and the December signing of infielder Eduardo Escobar to a $2.6 million contract. The Twins haven’t gone through with an arbitration case since losing in back-to-back years to right-hander Kyle Lohse (2005-06) and his agent, Scott Boras. The differences in those cases were $250,000 and $550,000, respectively. While multiple teams have adopted a “file-and-trial” approach this offseason, the Twins have not switched to that philosophy under the new front-office regime.

11

Twins open up annual Winter Caravan Rhett Bollinger| MLB | January 16, 2017 MANKATO, Minn. -- The first day of the annual Twins Winter Caravan kicked off on Monday, and while he's not scheduled to appear on any of the caravan's four legs over the next two weeks, the biggest topic of conversation revolved around second baseman Brian Dozier. Two different routes left the Twin Cities on Monday, including a route featuring manager Paul Molitor, relievers Brandon Kintzler and Ryan Pressly, and broadcaster Dick Bremer. Fans at stops in cities such as Hutchison, New Ulm and Mankato all had similar questions for Molitor about next season, especially regarding a potential Dozier trade. Molitor took it in stride, and said that while things can change, he's heading to Spring Training assuming Dozier will still be with the club in 2017. "Brian has been through the wringer this winter," Molitor said. "But right now, I plan on him being part our team." Other questions mostly revolved around the health of pitchers such as Glen Perkins (torn labrum) and Phil Hughes (thoracic outlet syndrome) -- they've both started throwing programs without any issues -- and whether Miguel Sano will be able to handle third base defensively. Fans also wanted to know if the Twins will make any last-minute signings before Spring Training, and Molitor said they're still monitoring the free-agent market looking for pitching help. The bullpen is an area where Molitor said he could see the Twins making an upgrade. It made for lively question-and-answer sessions with the fans at the three public events, which all drew large crowds, impressing Molitor with the Twins coming off such a rough year. "You understand there was a fairly high level of frustration with the way the year unfolded last year," Molitor said. "I think the Twins understand the importance of connecting with fans and at least try to deliver a message that will resonate and get people back on board a little bit. It's not hard for me to do that because that's what I do each and every winter, trying to envision the way this thing can go." Molitor's caravan leg did at least feature two bright spots from last year in Kintzler and Pressly. Kintzler filled in capably as closer last year with Perkins lost to labrum surgery, while Pressly had a breakout year as a setup reliever. It's the second caravan for Pressly and the first for Kintzler, and both were excited about meeting the fans throughout the Upper Midwest over the next four days. "It's fun," Pressly said. "I love coming to do this. It's great to meet all the fans you don't get to see every day. I really like coming up here. Just gotta stay warm." Kintzler and Pressly are two of several Twins players on caravan over the next two weeks, along with Eduardo Escobar, Hector Santiago, Trevor May, Byron Buxton, Taylor Rogers, Jose Berrios and John Ryan Murphy. Escobar and Santiago also left Monday, while the other two legs start on Jan. 23. "This is my first time on caravan and I've always heard it was fun," Kintzler said. "It's just a good experience any time you can hang out with fans." Santiago among 4 Twins to avoid arbitration Rhett Bollinger| MLB | January 16, 2017 MINNEAPOLIS -- The Twins avoided arbitration with all four of their eligible players on Friday, signing Hector Santiago, Brandon Kintzler, Kyle Gibson and Ryan Pressly to one-year deals, according to a Major League source. The club has not confirmed the deals. Santiago agreed at $8 million, Kintzler at $2.925 million, Gibson at $2.9 million and Pressly at $1.125. Santiago, who made $5 million last year, posted a 4.70 ERA with 144 strikeouts and 79 walks in 182 innings. The 29-year-old lefty was acquired by the Twins at the Aug. 1 non-waiver Trade Deadline in the deal that sent Ricky Nolasco to the Angels. Minnesota also sent $4 million to the Angels as part of the deal, which is exactly the difference between their two salaries in 2017, with Nolasco set to make $12 million. Kintzler, 32, is coming off a solid season in which he filled in as closer with Glen Perkins out due to shoulder surgery. Kintzler posted a 3.15 ERA with 35 strikeouts in 54 1/3 innings, while registering 17 saves in 20 chances. He gets a raise on his base salary of $1.075 million last year, when he was signed to a Minor League deal before the season. Like Santiago, he'll also be a free agent after the season. Pressly, also in his first year of arbitration, posted a 3.70 ERA with 67 strikeouts in 75 1/3 innings last year and he figures to be a big part of Minnesota's bullpen in 2017. The former Rule 5 Draft pick has a career 3.55 ERA in 208 innings and he earned $520,000 last season.

12

The Twins haven't been to an arbitration hearing since 2006 with right-hander Kyle Lohse. Minnesota already agreed to a deal with shortstop Eduardo Escobar, signing him for $2.6 million in December. Trevor Plouffe and Tommy Milone were also eligible for arbitration, but they were outrighted early in the offseason. 2016 analysis: The highs and lows of Brian Dozier’s incredible season Derek Wetmore | ESPN 1500 | January 16, 2017 Brian Dozier makes predicting the future difficult. Typically with any baseball player who has graduated to the Major Leagues and lasted there for a few seasons, we can look at his minor league numbers and those from recent MLB seasons to inform our guesses about his future performance. With Dozier, it’s not so easy. He’s evolved from what he was in the minors. He’s slumped for extended stretches. He might have evolved again at the end of May in 2016—or maybe he didn’t. I honestly can’t say that I know. I do know that he’s the most powerful second baseman in baseball and his rebound last year was nothing short of amazing. There are a few things to point out about Dozier’s 2016 season. Early slump It’s impossible to talk about Dozier’s season without digging into the full context of a slump that led to him getting benched for a couple games in late May to work on his swing. At that point, the guy who finished the year as the obvious choice for team MVP was batting just .199/.284/.318. Just like he had in the second half the previous two seasons, Dozier was slumping at the plate. He was in a deep rut, and it wasn’t clear how he would get himself out of it. Paul Molitor sat him down for a couple games, Dozier had heart-to-heart chats with everyone from then-GM Terry Ryan to former teammate Torii Hunter. Then he spent the next four months setting the world on fire. MVP numbers after that Molitor used Dozier as a pinch hitter in the 9th inning of a game on May 24th. He drew a walk against Wade Davis and for the rest of the season the powerful second baseman batted .291/.358/.621 with an incredible 38 home runs. That cemented his place as Twins MVP and a fan favorite. Dozier didn’t win the American League MVP award, obviously, but have a look at how his numbers stack up against players in that echelon. (Dozier did get six total votes, including an 8th place, a 9th place and four 10th place votes.) Here are the top-5 MVP finishers in the A.L. compared with Dozier, from May 24 until the end of the season: PLAYER AVG OBP SLG HR RBI R Mike Trout .311 .452 .542 19 69 91 Mookie Betts .335 .379 .547 22 80 83 Jose Altuve .341 .390 .512 15 69 69 Josh Donaldson .299 .426 .563 26 75 85 Manny Machado .288 .335 .504 25 70 72 Brian Dozier .291 .358 .621 38 85 86 Source: Baseball-Reference.com Those five guys also add excellent defense at critical positions, but the numbers help paint a picture. At the end of the year Through the ups and the downs each of the past three seasons, Dozier finished with a strong final batting line. Here are his averages over the past three seasons, in which he was fairly consistent, although it may not seem like it if you’ve followed his yo-yo game closely.

13

He took several different paths to these final numbers – 2015 being his worst overall season of the three – but the basic counting stats look fairly consistent year to year. He’s averaged 156 games, 700 plate appearances, 31 home runs, 105 runs scores, 82 RBIs and a batting line of .249/.330/.469. Looks a little bit like Curtis Granderson numbers. Different players, obviously, and in different settings. Just remember that those power numbers come from a second baseman. That kind of production would look good in just about any lineup. Monthly breakdown The amazing thing to me about Dozier’s season is that it kept going. He was ice cold and then he was scorching hot and I thought in August, ‘OK, where is he going to settle in?’ Except he didn’t settle. He just kept belting home runs until the season ended. Here are his monthly splits for home runs, including the average number of plate appearances between longballs: MONTH HRs PA/HR March/April 3 35 May 2 46 June 8 14 July 6 19 August 13 10 Sept/Oct 10 12 Nobody has ever hit more career home runs than Barry Bonds. And nobody has ever hit more home runs in a season than Barry Bonds did in 2001. For context: Bonds hit 73 homers in 664 plate appearances that year, an average of one bomb every 9 plate appearances. That’s incredible. Dozier wasn’t quite to that level in August and September. He wasn’t that far off, though. More fly balls, more longballs For his entire career, Dozier hits a fly ball about 43 percent of the time. Last year, an apparent emphasis meant that number climbed nearly all the way to 48 percent. And when he hits those fly balls, over the course of his career they’ve left the park 12.7 percent of the time. Last season, that number spiked to 18.4 percent, which would seem to indicate he’d fall back to his mean level of production. Let’s consider the possibility, though, that Dozier actually has changed to become more fly-ball happy. And more of those fly balls are leaving the yard now. I don’t think it’s a huge stretch. The HR/FB% puts him in the neighborhood of guys like Mike Trout and Kris Bryant, but still outside the top-30 in the statistic last year in MLB. It’s a lot higher than his career rate, but on its face it doesn’t seem unreasonable to me. Pull-happy One thing that hasn’t changed since Dozier became a feared big-league hitter is his tendency to yank the ball. His numbers are best when he pulls the ball, and that’s all he ever seems to want to do at the plate. Who could blame him? It’s led to plenty of success so far in his career. In 2016, Dozier led all of baseball in the percentage of batted balls that he pulled (minimum of 200 plate appearances). Dozier pulled – that is, hit to the left side as a right-handed batter – 56.4% of batted balls last year. With the help of Fangraphs’ tools, I took the numbers of every MLB hitter who had at least 200 plate appearances last year and focused on the percentage of balls in play that they pulled. Then I multiplied by plate appearances to figure out how many total balls each player pulled. And guess who leads that list? Dozier again, with 390 pulled balls in 2016. Next on the list: Edwin Encarnacion (366), Carlos Santana (364), Kris Bryant (326) and Jose Altuve (325). When Dozier pulls the ball, he usually does it with authority. Last year when he went to the left side he batted .417/.417/.897. Dozier knows exactly what he wants to do at the plate. So does every opposing pitcher. Last year, that didn’t seem to matter. Would Mauer Detractors rest easier if the Twins said this out loud?

14

Derek Wetmore | ESPN 1500 | January 16, 2017 Nowadays if you log on to the social media website Twitter.com, you’ll find the crowd Twins fans that hold up Mauer as the root of every problem for the franchise over the past 7 years. Based on my experience, you’re much more likely to find that crowd than anyone wanting to celebrate Mauer’s legacy in a Twins uniform. His star has faded and social media has amplified the volume on that decline, probably well past the point of distortion. The Twins signed Joe Mauer to a massive contract, worth $184 million over 8 years. Now, he doesn’t appear to be the same Mauer. And such is life in pro sports. I read an interesting tidbit in Buster Olney’s ESPN column over the weekend. He prefaced his column by saying that there are some things baseball executives – the leaders of very public businesses – just can’t say about their employees. He picked one thing that each team would say in a moment of honesty, if it weren’t for the negative repercussions of such public statements. Here’s what Olney speculates the Twins would say: The return on investment from the Joe Mauer contract, which has two more years to go, has been extremely disappointing. I think that’s fairly non-controversial. Many Twins fans would agree with the premise, although different crowds would feel differently about it. Some would get out their megaphones and pitchforks. Others might quietly reflect on the unfortunate fall of an athlete once on track to be a Minnesota sports legend. So, here’s my thought on this. We agree that he’s overpaid at this point of his career based on his on-field production. What about the years in which he was underpaid? Should Twins fans have appreciated him more then? He made $10.5 million in his MVP 2009 season and every team in the league would have jumped at the chance to pay him that. Has he been ‘worth’ the money in the past three seasons? No, he hasn’t. But teams don’t have the luxury of reassessing dollar values on long-term contracts. That’s not how it works. If fans dislike Mauer because he’s preventing the Twins from signing other prime free agents that would have helped the mid-market Twins win more games, that’s understandable. My question, and I’m genuinely curious: would those same fans be content if the Twins executives said what Olney suggests here? What if Derek Falvey said it? ‘Hey, listen. We like Joe Mauer as a guy and at the time my predecessors signed the contract the organization was thrilled about the prospect of moving into a new stadium with a homegrown MVP anchoring our club for the next eight years. The present reality is that injuries and offensive decline have really taken their toll, and Mauer’s not the same superstar player at 33 as he was at 26.’ This is just a thought experiment. For one thing, it will never happen. For another, I don’t think it would silence the part of the crowd that just wants to voice complaints. Will the Twins surpass a $100 million payroll this year? Derek Wetmore | ESPN 1500 | January 14, 2017 Will the Twins clear $100 million in player salary this year? The short answer is that it’ll take a little more work to get there. Currently the Twins have 12 players under contract at a total cost in salary of $91.05 million, according to Baseball Prospectus. Of course, that leaves some spots to fill on the 25-man roster. Most of those currently project to go to players with three years or fewer of Major League service time, or to players signed to minor league contracts. That means the final 13 spots likely will be filled for approximately the MLB minimum, which reportedly is $545,000 this year.

15

And don’t forget the Twins sent $4 million to Anaheim at last year’s nonwaiver trade deadline to help offset the difference in salary between Ricky Nolasco and Hector Santiago. (The way I interpret that is that the Twins needed to pay the Angels $4 million plus Alex Meyer for the right to swap Nolasco and Santiago.) So anyway, churning through the math let’s just assign a $550,000 salary to the final spots to round out the Twins’ active roster. That brings our total to $98.2 million, roughly. Then we’ll add in Nolasco’s payment, whether or not the Twins are putting that full amount on their books this year for accounting purposes. That pushes the total in player salary to $102.2 million, by my count. And it’s totally possible Minnesota isn’t done signing players. There are still free agents looking for work. Maybe the Twins could use another reliever or two. Or maybe a starting pitcher or a bat is looking for a place to call home and fits the Twins’ plans and price range. President Derek Falvey said this week that he and GM Thad Levine and Assistant GM Rob Antony and the rest of their group have a list of all unsigned free agents “and values where we think it would make sense [to sign them].” “I wouldn’t shut the door on any player out there right now, even if it was slightly unconventional,” Falvey said. “Because there are opportunities every year for teams to add in areas where it might not be the natural fit. If we have that and we feel there’s value in that player outside of just what it looks like on paper, then we’ll pursue that. We have [owner Jim Pohlad’s] blessing to do that so we’re excited about that opportunity.” So maybe they’ll add and maybe they won’t. It’s important to note that team payroll doesn’t always directly translate to wins. The Indians reached the World Series last year and racked up 94 wins in the regular season despite a relatively modest $84 million opening day payroll. Let’s figure out just how much that matters. Using salary data from ESPN, I charted each team’s win total from last year and plotted it next to their opening day payroll. (The Twins ranked last in wins with 59 and 20th in payroll at $102.4 million.) Then I had a little fun charting the dollars spent per win. Because they won so few games, the Twins were actually one of the 10 least efficient teams last year, having spent about $1.7 million per win. The Yankees and Dodgers tipped the scales approximately $2.5 million per win, while the A.L. Champion Indians only spent about $891,000 for every one of their 94 wins. Perhaps the bigger takeaway here comes out of putting this information into visual form. I plotted MLB wins versus Opening Day payroll in this graph to find out if one determines the other. [Chart] Some teams spend a lot and win a fair amount (Yankees, Dodgers) and other teams don’t need to spend very much to win 90+ games (the Indians are the clearest example). And then there are the Cubs, way up there on the win chart – and winning the World Series — despite being just barely higher than the median salary on opening day last year. The solid line represent the best fit running through the data. And I don’t remember everything from my stats classes but that “R squared” score in the top right means that the computer didn’t really see these two things as all that related. Spending more money helps win games but it’s not the only factor. It should be noted that player salary is all that’s charted here, although it isn’t the only determining factor. Outside of things we won’t be able to quantify here like luck or variance or Billy Goat curses, there are other considerations that don’t fall under the umbrella of player salaries. How much does a team spend on the international market? Are there discounts there? How much does a team spend investing in its player development facilities or equipment? Could there be a hidden edge there? What about medical? What’s the difference between the best and worst training staff in terms of cost and in terms of value added to the win total? Is there luck at play there? What’s the difference between the best and worst GM? The best and worst manager? Coaching staff? How varied are the salaries and how varied are their respective impacts? I can’t answer these questions today. But they’re worth considering as you read about the Twins payroll and how it’s hovering at about $100 million.

16

Wetmore’s projected 25-man Twins roster for Opening Day 2017 Derek Wetmore | ESPN 1500 | January 14, 2017 But fear not, winter warriors! Twins pitchers and catchers report to spring training in one month. It’s become an annual tradition at 1500ESPN to make our own guesses at what the Twins roster might look like when they break camp and head north from Fort Myers. It’s a tall task, of course, guessing the future. But it provides a fun exercise and hopefully some of our thoughts here will springboard productive conversations. Here’s my Opening Day 25-man roster projection for the Twins, complete with a little commentary where necessary. Rotation (5) RHP Ervin Santana RHP Phil Hughes RHP Trevor May RHP Kyle Gibson LHP Hector Santiago The first thing a lot of readers will notice about this rotation is that it’s led by Ervin Santana followed by four question marks. The second thing that many will recognize is that it somehow does not include top pitching prospect J.O. Berrios. This was a really tough call for me, and I think it’s totally possible – depending on how a few things break this year – that Berrios is the best thing going for Minnesota’s rotation by the end of the year. It’s clearly a big prove-it year for Hughes and Gibson, for different reasons, but I think we tend to make too much of that on the outside. Truthfully, every year of a player’s career is a ‘prove-it’ year. Hughes is coming off multiple injuries, including a broken leg bone and surgery to relieve thoracic outlet syndrome (shoulder). His numbers were ugly, but I don’t think he was himself for any length of time last year. Gibson’s numbers were also ugly, and it’s hard to know how much blame to assign to a shoulder injury that put him on the shelf early in the year. The good news for Gibson: He had the second best ERA on the starting staff behind only Santana. That bad news for Gibson: That says way more about the starting staff than it does about Gibson, because that second-best ERA was still 5.07. I like his potential to be a mid- to back-end starter, but it’s clear he’ll need to bounce back and pitch better in his fourth full season in the Majors. I think for the good of the pitching staff as a whole, Trevor May needs to be given a legitimate opportunity to earn a spot in the starting rotation in spring training. As a matter of fact, I might be tempted to just give him one barring something disastrous in Fort Myers. Santiago just got a raise to $8 million through arbitration. Tyler Duffey took a step back after a really impressive stretch run his rookie year in which he was one of only two consistently reliable starting pitchers for a Twins team knocking on the door of the postseason. He wasn’t that highly touted of a prospect but I’m not holding that against him here. I just thought he was on more solid footing this time last year and even then he didn’t make the rotation out of spring training. His fastball-curveball mix can be a really good one. We haven’t consistently seen a third pitch to keep hitters from taking or wasting his great curve ball and so I’m skeptical about him going into Year 3 in the big leagues. I still see a potential contributor, but I squeezed him out of a spot for this projection. I also considered Adalberto Mejia and Stephen Gonsalves, and the Twins say they’re considering Rule 5 pick Justin Haley. Bullpen (7) Closer Glen Perkins Setup Ryan Pressly LHP Taylor Rogers RHP Brandon Kintzler RHP J.T. Chargois RHP Michael Tonkin RHP Joe Blanton*

17

*Free agent Let’s be clear: This is based on wild speculation. I’m not reporting that Blanton will sign with the Twins. I just see a bullpen that could use a hand and by my estimation Blanton is the best veteran reliever left unsigned. Or maybe 41-year-old Koji Uehara. As for the rest of the bullpen, this is what I would call the Plan A scenario. If Perkins is back to throwing gas with the wipeout slider then he certainly has earned the right to have first crack at his closer’s job. But as the Twins found out very early on last year, sometimes Plan A doesn’t pan out, and with Perkins coming off a significant labrum surgery, they’ll have to have a contingency plan in place. If Perkins is unable to return to the height of his powers, then maybe Kintzler is the fallback option. He acquitted himself well in the role last year, although I have my doubts about how that would work out over the long term for the Twins. I don’t know if Ryan Pressly is ready to be a closer but he has the stuff for it. I don’t know if Chargois would be ready for that role but he too has the look of a future closer. Speaking of having the look, I’m curious to see where Nick Burdi will be after injuries set him back last year. Other names that earned strong consideration for this projected bullpen were Justin Haley, Mason Melotakis, Ryan O’Rourke and Buddy Boshers. Infield (6) C Jason Castro 1B Joe Mauer 2B Brian Dozier 3B Miguel Sano SS Jorge Polanco DH Kennys Vargas I’ve written a fair amount and will continue to write about the uncertainty and upside found in a left side comprising Sano and Polanco. That could be a big bucket of really bad defense, or it could turn itself around with another year of experience and offer a really high potential ceiling as two players with big bats for their respective position. Time will tell. If I was the Twins, I think I would spend all of 2017 trying to answer the question: Can either one hold up for a full year and play well enough in the field to warrant holding down the job? Castro is a nice if unspectacular addition for the Twins. I think he’ll help pitchers because he’s advertised as a great game planner and caller, and he can throw out runners at a better rate than Kurt Suzuki did. The right side of the Twins infield is set … unless it’s not. I think the team would be worse in 2017 if it traded Dozier. But that doesn’t necessarily mean it would be the wrong move. Outfield (3) LF Robbie Grossman CF Byron Buxton RF Max Kepler You’ll be forgiven if you thought Grossman’s 2016 season was a flash in the pan. After failing to latch on with the Houston Astros, Grossman signed with the Twins, stole a starting job and ran with it. He ran all the way to the best offensive season of his career. Or, I should say he walked to the best offensive season of his career. Grossman got hot early in his stint as the Twins left fielder after replacing Eddie Rosario, but finished the year batting .280. With his strong ability to draw walks, though, Grossman’s on-base percentage finished 106 points higher than his batting average, and only 12 outfielders with at least 350 plate appearances last year posted a higher mark than Grossman’s 127 Weighted Runs Created Plus. Whether or not you believe he’ll duplicate that mark, it seems to me like he earned the right to begin the year as a starting outfielder over Rosario. I think Buxton and Kepler both have bright futures ahead of them. I would have told you the same thing at this time last year. I write it with more confidence this time around.

18

Bench (4) IF Eduardo Escobar OF Eddie Rosario C Mitch Garver UTIL Danny Santana It’s an important year for Escobar if he intends to prove he’s more than an extra player in the big leagues. If the Twins traded Brian Dozier, I’d be tempted to plug in Escobar at second base and leave Polanco at shortstop to see if he can play there. Rosario took a step back last year and there are very real concerns about his game offensively. He had a dazzling rookie season and then couldn’t seem to replicate that success last year. I felt all three aspects of his game – hitting, fielding and base running – got worse in his second season in the Majors. If he develops a better eye at the plate and gets back to the intelligent game he played as a rookie in the field and on the bases, then Rosario is a starting outfielder and potentially an impact player. If he doesn’t, then maybe he’s better suited to being a fourth outfielder. At catcher, I considered John Ryan Murphy and Chris Gimenez as a backup to Jason Castro. Ultimately I chose Garver because his offensive numbers in the minor leagues are worth a look and I’ve heard recently from someone who would know that Garver has made improvements behind the plate—the area he needed the most work to make it to the Major Leagues. After a sensational rookie season, Santana has had two terrible follow-up campaigns and it’s hard to see him adding a lot of value to the Twins at this point. He has a lot of ability but after the ball bounced his way an awful lot his first season in the big leagues, he hasn’t put much of anything together in the two years since. I don’t see him as a real strong defender at any position, but he is one of the few players on the team’s 40-man roster who could play infield and outfield if needed. I wonder if they might be better off finding a more qualified infielder for the final bench spot, but it’s possible that guy is no longer out there. Or maybe they just want a power bat, and in that case you might look at a guy like Byung Ho Park or Daniel Palka. Hardest to cut? J.O. Berrios I fully expect Berrios will report to spring training in tip-top shape and ready to compete for a starting rotation spot. I think if the Twins trade Ervin Santana this year and other pitchers don’t rebound in a big way, Berrios could be Minnesota best starter in September. His minor league numbers are so excellent that even if he doesn’t have ace material, he should one day rise to the top of this group. But despite the filthy stuff and outstanding minor league numbers, it was concerning how little fastball command Berrios showed in his tour of the Major Leagues last year. His exclusion probably will be the most controversial on this list, but I wouldn’t be stunned if he opened the year in Triple-A Rochester, dominated there and quickly earned his way back to the big leagues. (Alternatively, it’d maybe be the path of less resistance to keep May in the bullpen and slide Berrios into the rotation.) Byung Ho Park Park signed a four-year deal last winter that still has the potential to be a bargain – if he can figure it out against the best pitchers in the world. Last year was not all that inspiring of an audition when you look at the final stat line. But remember that early in the year when despite some apparent flaws he was belting home runs and even had some people talking about him as a candidate for American League rookie of the year. I’ll be really curious this year to find out if Park adjusts to the added velocity he now faces regularly. And I’m curious to see if he stays healthy—and doubly curious to learn just how much the injury that prematurely ended his season affected his hitting. I wouldn’t be surprised if people with the Twins were split on their preference between Park and Vargas. I went with Vargas here, knowing he might be a long shot to be a real impact player, but favoring his production in 2016 to edge out Park at DH. Zulgad: 3-pack of predictions for the Twins on Dozier, Mauer and a free-agent slugger Judd Zulgad | ESPN 1500 | January 13, 2017 Will Brian Dozier be traded to the Dodgers? Are the Twins really interested in Jose Bautista? Should we put stock in the fact Joe Mauer says he’s feeling good? Let’s do a deeper dive into these topics.

19

Go West, young man The skinny: Reports continue to swirl that Dozier could be headed to the Dodgers The reaction: The Twins are more than willing to deal their slugging second baseman to Los Angeles, but new baseball chief Derek Falvey wants more than just righthanded pitching prospect Jose De Leon. Dozier is one of the Twins’ most marketable players, in part because he’s owed below-market salaries of $6 million and $9 million over the next two years. Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported this week that talks between the teams are at an “impasse” but that does not mean they won’t be revisited. Like many of you, I have a case of Brian Dozier Trade Rumor Fatigue, but that doesn’t mean we are going to get a resolution anytime soon. The Giants, Cardinals and Braves also have been mentioned as possible landing spots for Dozier, but there’s a good chance those teams have been thrown in the mix because the Twins want more from the Dodgers. Falvey said this week that he would not rule out trading Dozier during spring training. So far the Dodgers aren’t blinking, even though their starting second baseman right now would Enrique Hernandez. The Twins remain in a favorable position because there is no urgency for them to move Dozier unless the return is what they want. Will it happen? Yes. Given the fact the Dodgers are in win-now mode and Dozier would be a big upgrade, it’s likely they will eventually give into the Twins’ demands. A potential power surge The skinny: The Twins have met with several agents for free agent position players this winter, according to MLB.com. That includes the representative for the power-hitting and bat-flipping Bautista. The reaction: Bautista and his representatives misjudged the free agent market and the interest that would exist for a 36-year-old outfielder and designated hitter. Bautista, who hit 22 home runs last season and was limited to 116 games with the Blue Jays, turned down the one-year, $17.2 million qualifying offer made to him by Toronto. There were reports last spring that Bautista was looking for a five-year, $150 million deal from the Blue Jays. Rhett Bollinger, who covers the Twins for MLB.com, reported, “it’s unclear what the level of interest is from both sides, but the Twins are at least doing their due diligence on impact players like Bautista, who reportedly could sign a one-year deal to set his value on the marketplace.” Bautista has had plenty of success at Target Field, hitting 14 home runs in the ballpark, but unless Bautista’s potential presence in the clubhouse provided unbelievable leadership for the Twins’ younger players, and the guess here is that would not be the case, it’s hard to imagine the organization would take at-bats away from guys they likely want to see. Signing Bautista also would cost the Twins a compensatory pick and when you are rebuilding those picks are important. Of course, the Twins likely did not mind Bautista’s name coming up because at least it took the focus away from whether they were going to trade Dozier for one day. Will it happen? It’s a fun talker, but Bautista’s next home run in Target Field almost certainly will come in a visitor’s uniform. Feeling fine The skinny: After a down season in 2016, Mauer told reporters he is feeling great and is ready to go. The reaction: It has become a yearly occurrence for the Twins’ first baseman to talk about how good he feels just before spring training begins. Mauer ended the 2016 season dealing with a quadriceps injury that limited him to one game in the final two weeks. The Star Tribune reported

20

that Mauer’s offseason program included regular stretching, a few treatments from trainers and lots of rest. Even if Mauer gets off to a good start, as he did last season, the former catcher is going to need to show that he can continue to be productive well into the season. Remember, Mauer’s batting average was at .313 through the opening week of May last season before things began to nosedive. He hit .242 in May, .223 in June and .236 in July. Mauer rebounded to hit .337 in August, but followed that up with a .111 average in 12 games in September. The quadriceps injury certainly played a role in Mauer’s late-season struggles, but there is no debating the 33-year-old has suffered a significant decline. Mauer played in 134 games, missing only eight of the first 125 in 2016, and manager Paul Molitor has discussed reducing the first baseman’s workload. Will it happen? The Twins should have plenty of options at first base, so resting Mauer more frequently shouldn’t be that difficult to do. The only issue will be if the Twins’ brass objects, given Mauer’s $23 million per year salary (his contract runs through 2018) and the fact that some might be concerned about offending Mauer. It’s hard to believe that Falvey or general manager Thad Levine will be concerned about that considering both were hired from outside the organization and know that Mauer is nearing the end of his time with the Twins. Reports: 4 more Twins get salary raises Derek Wetmore | ESPN 1500 | January 13, 2017 Hector Santiago ($8 million), Brandon Kintzler ($2.925) and Kyle Gibson ($2.9 million) and Ryan Pressley ($1.175) all have new one-year contracts, according to multiple reports. Santiago is the most expensive because he’s a starting pitcher with experience and those players aren’t cheap. Gibson had to settle for a salary less than $3 million, and there’s no doubt his struggles in 2016 played into that calculation. Kintzler, meanwhile, was invited to spring training last season on a minor league deal and wound up as the team’s closer by the end of the season, a role in which he acquitted himself well. Pressly is a possible darkhorse candidate to be a closer, if Plan A (Glen Perkins) doesn’t pan out this year for the Twins. Perkins is coming off a significant surgery. Each of these salaries are determined by what comparable player makes, so the market has an impact, as does the length of time each player has spent in the big leagues. After three seasons of service time – when a team can choose to pay a player very little relative to their more experienced peers – each player gets an opportunity to file for an arbitration raise in his fourth, fifth and sixth seasons of Major League service time. It’s after those three raises, in most cases, that a player can elect free agency. Eduardo Escobar had already agreed to a one-year contract earlier this winter. Trevor Plouffe, who was eligible for another raise in arbitration, was cut earlier this winter and wound up signing a one-year deal with the Oakland A’s. The Twins still have time before spring training to work out a deal with Pressly. If they can’t agree, the two will submit a proposed salary figure to an arbiter, who will then determine Pressly’s salary. Twins agree to deals with Gibson, Santiago, Pressly, Kintzler AP | FOX Sports | January 13, 2017 MINNEAPOLIS — The Minnesota Twins agreed to one-year contracts with starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Hector Santiago, reliever Ryan Pressly and closer Brandon Kintzler on Friday while avoiding arbitration with their four remaining eligible players. Santiago agreed to a one-year, $8 million deal, Gibson got $2.9 million and Kintzler got $2,925,000. Pressly also agreed to a one-year deal for $1,175,000. Santiago went 3-6 with a 5.58 ERA in 11 starts for the Twins after being acquired in a midseason trade with the Angels. Gibson went 6-11 with a 5.07 ERA in 25 starts last season while dealing with a strained shoulder. Gibson is coming off a deeply disappointing 2016 season, when he went 6-11 with a 5.07 ERA in 25 starts while being bothered by a strained shoulder. The 29-year-old right-hander produced solid seasons in the middle of Minnesota’s rotation in 2014 and 2015, though, and will get a

21

big raise in his first year of arbitration eligibility after making $587,500 last season. Santiago, who was acquired in a trade last summer from the Los Angeles Angels, made $5 million last season. He was 10-4 with a 4.25 ERA in 22 starts for the Angels prior to the deal, but he struggled with the Twins while going 3-6 with a 5.58 ERA in 11 turns. Like Gibson, he’s also 29 and one of the incumbents who’ll be counted on for improvement in the attempt to lift one of the worst rotations in baseball out of the big hole the Twins have been in. Kintzler was one of the few bright spots for Minnesota last season, eventually taking over the closer role following an injury to Glen Perkins and recording 17 saves in 20 attempts and making 54 appearances with a 3.15 ERA. The 32-year-old right-hander started the year in Triple-A after spending parts of the previous six seasons in Milwaukee’s bullpen. He made $1.08 million last season. Pressly bounced back from an injury-shortened 2015 to appear in 72 games out of the bullpen for the Twins last season. The 28-year-old right-hander posted a 3.70 ERA. This is his first year of arbitration eligibility. Minnesota Twins Surprise By Signing Chris Gimenez Scott Wessels | FOX Sports | January 13, 2017 Twins Loading Up on Catching This Off-Season, Signing Free Agent Catcher Chris Gimenez. Obviously, the Minnesota Twins felt they needed to shore up the catcher’s position this off-season. After letting Kurt Suzuki go into free agency, they have signed Jason Castro to a major league contract, plus Dan Rohlfing, Eddy Rodriguez, and now Chris Gimenez to minor league deals. While many thought/hoped that prospect Mitch Garver would open the 2017 season as Castro’s backup, it seems as though the Twins’ front office would like to have him spend a year in AAA. All five players, as of now, are invited to Spring Training – joining incumbent backup John Ryan Murphy in what looks to be a very crowded position once pitchers and catchers arrive. Of course, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine may have other plans. The signing of Gimenez follows the Jason Castro line of thinking. A great receiver, adept at framing pitches, while not so strong at the plate. They obviously feel that some of the poor pitching performances from last year stem from a lack of a competent receiver as a battery-mate. Gimenez has struggled at the plate throughout his seven year major league career. His lifetime batting average is just .214, with a high of .262 with the Texas Rangers – when Levine was also at Texas. Gimenez’s affiliation with the new front office also connects to Falvey, as he filled in after Yan Gomes was injured in a game at Target Field. He has, in fact, had three different stints with the Indians. He served as a backup to Roberto Perez, catching for Trevor Bauer. Cleveland manager, Terry Francona, gave credit to Bauer’s improvement during the season to Gimenez. (Catch Paul Hoynes’ article on this at the Cleveland Plain Dealer) He also was a leader in the clubhouse, even given his fill-in, backup status. Remember this? [Tweet] Yes, that’s Gimenez leading the charge as the Indians made a “sacrifice” (frozen chicken from Target, natch) to Jobu (from “Major League”) in the visitor’s clubhouse at Target Field. While Gomes did finally snap his ohfer streak the next day – he also separated his shoulder while trying to avoid the tag from Kennys Vargas at first base. The attraction, like Castro’s, comes from his framing ability. His defensive stats are solid, though his arm may come into question with a lifetime average of .236 for throwing out runners attempting to steal. With all the backstops reporting to Fort Myers February 13th, it shouldn’t take long for the coaches to make some quick evaluations to trim the training camp roster to a more manageable number when the games actually begin 11 days later. Twins Avoid Arbitration: In just the nick of time, Minnesota avoided arbitration with all four pitchers who were arbitration-eligible. Hector Santiago ($8M), Kyle Gibson ($2.9M), Brandon Kintzler ($2.925M) avoided hearings. And Ryan Pressly ($1.175M) agreed right outside the

22

hearing doors before going in. Minnesota Twins Surprise By Signing Chris Gimenez Scott Wessels | FOX Sports | January 13, 2017 Twins Loading Up on Catching This Off-Season, Signing Free Agent Catcher Chris Gimenez. Obviously, the Minnesota Twins felt they needed to shore up the catcher’s position this off-season. After letting Kurt Suzuki go into free agency, they have signed Jason Castro to a major league contract, plus Dan Rohlfing, Eddy Rodriguez, and now Chris Gimenez to minor league deals. While many thought/hoped that prospect Mitch Garver would open the 2017 season as Castro’s backup, it seems as though the Twins’ front office would like to have him spend a year in AAA. All five players, as of now, are invited to Spring Training – joining incumbent backup John Ryan Murphy in what looks to be a very crowded position once pitchers and catchers arrive. Of course, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine may have other plans. The signing of Gimenez follows the Jason Castro line of thinking. A great receiver, adept at framing pitches, while not so strong at the plate. They obviously feel that some of the poor pitching performances from last year stem from a lack of a competent receiver as a battery-mate. Gimenez has struggled at the plate throughout his seven year major league career. His lifetime batting average is just .214, with a high of .262 with the Texas Rangers – when Levine was also at Texas. Gimenez’s affiliation with the new front office also connects to Falvey, as he filled in after Yan Gomes was injured in a game at Target Field. He has, in fact, had three different stints with the Indians. He served as a backup to Roberto Perez, catching for Trevor Bauer. Cleveland manager, Terry Francona, gave credit to Bauer’s improvement during the season to Gimenez. (Catch Paul Hoynes’ article on this at the Cleveland Plain Dealer) He also was a leader in the clubhouse, even given his fill-in, backup status. Remember this? [Tweet] Yes, that’s Gimenez leading the charge as the Indians made a “sacrifice” (frozen chicken from Target, natch) to Jobu (from “Major League”) in the visitor’s clubhouse at Target Field. While Gomes did finally snap his ohfer streak the next day – he also separated his shoulder while trying to avoid the tag from Kennys Vargas at first base. The attraction, like Castro’s, comes from his framing ability. His defensive stats are solid, though his arm may come into question with a lifetime average of .236 for throwing out runners attempting to steal. With all the backstops reporting to Fort Myers February 13th, it shouldn’t take long for the coaches to make some quick evaluations to trim the training camp roster to a more manageable number when the games actually begin 11 days later. Twins Avoid Arbitration: In just the nick of time, Minnesota avoided arbitration with all four pitchers who were arbitration-eligible. Hector Santiago ($8M), Kyle Gibson ($2.9M), Brandon Kintzler ($2.925M) avoided hearings. And Ryan Pressly ($1.175M) agreed right outside the hearing doors before going in.