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Mississippi Fiscal Summary January, 2008

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Page 1: Mississippi Fiscal Summary January, 2008. General Fund Estimates, FY 2008 Beginning cash balance, 7/1/07 $226,197,915 1/ Estimated revenues 4,933,200,000

MississippiFiscalSummary

January, 2008

Page 2: Mississippi Fiscal Summary January, 2008. General Fund Estimates, FY 2008 Beginning cash balance, 7/1/07 $226,197,915 1/ Estimated revenues 4,933,200,000

General Fund Estimates, FY 2008

Beginning cash balance, 7/1/07 $226,197,9151/

Estimated revenues 4,933,200,0002/

Less: Two Percent (2%) Holdback 102,469,399

Total estimated funds 5,056,928,516

Less: Total Budget for FY 2008Regular Appropriations, FY 2008 4,932,302,012From and After FY 2007 34,352,958Reappropriations from FY 2007 1,575,000General Fund Transfers 37,240,000

Total estimated expenditures, FY 2008 (5,005,469,970)

Estimated General Fund Balance, June 30, 2008 51,458,546

Add: Two Percent (2%) Holdback 102,469,399

Less: 50% transfer to Working Cash (76,963,972)

Estimated beginning cash balance, 7/01/08 $76,213,9723/

1/ This beginning cash balance is after transfers to Working Cash and includes From and After of $34,352,958 and Reappropriations of $1,575,000. 2/ Estimated revenues reflect a $11,800,000 upward revision (October 2007) from the Sine Die estimate.3/ Adjusted for $750,000 in Aid to Municipalities.

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Page 3: Mississippi Fiscal Summary January, 2008. General Fund Estimates, FY 2008 Beginning cash balance, 7/1/07 $226,197,915 1/ Estimated revenues 4,933,200,000

Gross State General Fund Revenue Estimates, FY Gross State General Fund Revenue Estimates, FY 20092009

(In Millions)(In Millions)

3042.1

413.6

182.387.8

1966.6

551.3

304.0

117.3452.3

377.5

Total: $7,494.8

Auto privilege

Sales

PetroleumOtherGaming

Use

Insurance Premium

Corp. Income

Indiv. Income

Non-Tax Commission

3

Page 4: Mississippi Fiscal Summary January, 2008. General Fund Estimates, FY 2008 Beginning cash balance, 7/1/07 $226,197,915 1/ Estimated revenues 4,933,200,000

Sales tax:Sales tax:CitiesCities $420$420Public School Building FundPublic School Building Fund 2020Four-Lane Highway Construction ProjectFour-Lane Highway Construction Project 44School Ad Valorem Tax Reduction FundSchool Ad Valorem Tax Reduction Fund 4242Education Enhancement FundEducation Enhancement Fund 292292Motor Vehicle Ad Valorem Tag Reduction FundMotor Vehicle Ad Valorem Tag Reduction Fund 179179OtherOther 3131 988988

Income tax:Income tax:Individual Income Refund AccountIndividual Income Refund Account 384384Corporate Income Refund AccountCorporate Income Refund Account 4747 431431

Use Tax:Use Tax:Education Enhancement FundEducation Enhancement Fund 2929School Ad Valorem Tax Reduction FundSchool Ad Valorem Tax Reduction Fund 44

Motor Vehicle Ad Valorem Tag Reduction FundMotor Vehicle Ad Valorem Tag Reduction Fund 4040 73 73

Gaming Taxes:Gaming Taxes:Municipalities and CountiesMunicipalities and Counties 137137Bond Sinking FundBond Sinking Fund 3636 173173

Insurance Premium Tax:Insurance Premium Tax:CitiesCities 88CountiesCounties 88Other Insurance Fire FundOther Insurance Fire Fund 2222 3838

Petroleum TaxPetroleum Tax 451451Auto Privilege TaxAuto Privilege Tax 105105OtherOther ____160160TOTAL DIVERSIONSTOTAL DIVERSIONS $2419$2419

Estimated Diversions from Gross State General FundTax Commission Collections, FY 2009

(In Millions)

4

Page 5: Mississippi Fiscal Summary January, 2008. General Fund Estimates, FY 2008 Beginning cash balance, 7/1/07 $226,197,915 1/ Estimated revenues 4,933,200,000

Net General Fund Revenue Estimates, FY 2009Net General Fund Revenue Estimates, FY 2009(In Millions)(In Millions)

144.087.8

1582.4

504.1

231.3

204.9 267.3

2054.2

Total: $5,076.0

OtherGaming

Sales

Insurance Premium

Non-Tax Commission

Indiv. Income

Corp. Income

Use

5

Page 6: Mississippi Fiscal Summary January, 2008. General Fund Estimates, FY 2008 Beginning cash balance, 7/1/07 $226,197,915 1/ Estimated revenues 4,933,200,000

-41.3%Issaquena

-20.2%Benton

-12.7%Pearl River

-10.2%Choctaw

-9.7%Carroll

-9.0%Covington

-8.3%Jasper

-8.0%Amite

-7.9%Itawamba

-7.3%Stone

-7.0%Lawrence

-6.7%Winston

-6.5%Smith

-6.0%Harrison

-5.7%Jackson

-5.4%Adams

-4.6%Forrest

-4.5%Oktibbeha

-4.4%Quitman

-4.2%Neshoba

-4.2%Tunica

-3.9%Jefferson

-3.0%Humphreys

-2.8%Perry

-2.7%Washington

-2.4%Yalobusha

-2.2%De Soto

-1.6%Newton-1.4%

Hinds

-1.3%Calhoun

-1.1%Tate

-0.3%Tishomingo

0.6%Rankin

0.7%Lamar0.8%

Wilkinson

0.9%Simpson

1.0%Pike

1.7%Chickasaw

2.3%Monroe

2.9%Lauderdale

2.9%Webster

3.2%Wayne

3.4%Madison

3.4%Montgomery

3.5%Leake

3.5%Coahoma

3.7%Sharkey

3.7%Jones

3.8%Marion

3.9%Grenada

4.1%Tippah

4.2%Lee

4.2%Sunflower

4.2%Lincoln

4.6%Walthall

4.8%Noxubee

5.0%Leflore

5.4%Marshall

5.5%Panola

5.8%Franklin

5.8%Bolivar

5.9%Pontotoc

6.3%Attala

6.4%Claiborne

6.7%Warren

6.7%Union

7.2%Copiah

7.7%Holmes

8.8%Scott

9.5%Yazoo

10.2%Lafayette

11.5%Jefferson Davis

12.1%Lowndes

12.3%Greene

13.4%Kemper

14.7%Prentiss

15.5%Clay

15.9%Hancock

16.5%Alcorn

19.3%Clarke

36.2%George

51.3%Tallahatchie

Less than 0%

0.0% to 10.0%

Greater than 10%

Retail Sales GrowthJanuary – November

2007 Over 2006

Mississippi 0.4%

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Page 7: Mississippi Fiscal Summary January, 2008. General Fund Estimates, FY 2008 Beginning cash balance, 7/1/07 $226,197,915 1/ Estimated revenues 4,933,200,000

General Fund Revenue Growth

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Growth NeededJanuary - June

Growth Rate Over Prior Year To MakeJan-Dec 2007 Oct-Dec 2007 Revised Estimate

Sales 0.5% 1.3% 5.7%Ind. Income 12.7% 1.7% 4.7%Corporate 9.3% -5.3% -4.0%Use -3.0% 4.6% 9.7%Gaming 20.3% 8.9% -2.9%

Total General Fund 6.7% 3.1% 2.0%

Page 8: Mississippi Fiscal Summary January, 2008. General Fund Estimates, FY 2008 Beginning cash balance, 7/1/07 $226,197,915 1/ Estimated revenues 4,933,200,000

General Fund Estimates, FY General Fund Estimates, FY 20092009

Estimated beginning cash, July 1, 2008 Estimated beginning cash, July 1, 2008 $76,213,972$76,213,97211

Estimated revenues FY 2009 Estimated revenues FY 2009 5,076,000,0005,076,000,000

Total estimated funds Total estimated funds 5,152,213,9725,152,213,972

Less 2% Holdback Less 2% Holdback

(103,044,279)(103,044,279)

Funds available for FY 2009Funds available for FY 2009 $5,049,169,693$5,049,169,693150% of the FY2008 estimated ending cash balance of $153,927,945 or $76,963,972 will be transferred to the Working Cash Stabilization Fund. Beginning cash for FY 2009 has been adjusted for $750,000 in Aid to Municipalities.

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Page 9: Mississippi Fiscal Summary January, 2008. General Fund Estimates, FY 2008 Beginning cash balance, 7/1/07 $226,197,915 1/ Estimated revenues 4,933,200,000

ESTIMATED INCREASES IN

MISSISSIPPI GENERAL FUND, FY 2009

Total Available

Beginning Estimated Total FundsCash Balance Revenues Funds (98%)

FY 2008 $226,197,915 $4,933,200,000 $5,159,397,915 $5,056,928,516FY 2009 $76,213,972 $5,076,000,000 $5,152,213,972 * $5,049,169,693

($149,983,943) $142,800,000 ($7,183,943) ($7,758,823)

* Funds were adjusted by the expected transf er of $38.0 million to the Health Care Trust Fund and a $14.8 million change in accelerated taxes.

Note: Estimated rev enues proposed by a consensus staf f recommendation of the Univ ersity Research Center, State Tax

Commission, Department of Finance and Administration, State Treasurer, and Legislativ e Budget Of f ice. These rev enue

estimates were adopted by the Joint Legislativ e Budget Committee and the Gov ernor in October, 2007. Both are

subject to rev ision, depending on changes in the economic situation, tax collection trends, and changes in rev enue laws.

SOURCE: Mississippi State Tax Commission, December 2007.

Legislativ e Budget Of f ice, December 2007.

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Page 10: Mississippi Fiscal Summary January, 2008. General Fund Estimates, FY 2008 Beginning cash balance, 7/1/07 $226,197,915 1/ Estimated revenues 4,933,200,000

(In Millions)(In Millions) (% of Total)(% of Total)

Public EducationPublic Education $2,234.4$2,234.4 45.0%45.0%

Higher EducationHigher Education 836.3836.3 16.8%16.8%

Social WelfareSocial Welfare 519.2519.2 10.5%10.5%

Debt ServiceDebt Service 289.5289.5 5.8%5.8%

CorrectionsCorrections 266.0266.0 5.4%5.4%

Hospitals/Hospital SchoolsHospitals/Hospital Schools 258.8258.8 5.2%5.2%

Agriculture & Economic DevelopmentAgriculture & Economic Development 114.1114.1 2.3%2.3%

Military, Police and Veterans AffairsMilitary, Police and Veterans Affairs 100.6100.6 2.0%2.0%

Local AssistanceLocal Assistance 84.084.0 1.7%1.7%

Fiscal AffairsFiscal Affairs 81.181.1 1.6%1.6%

Conservation & RecreationConservation & Recreation 56.156.1 1.1%1.1%

All OthersAll Others 128.1128.1 2.6%2.6%

TOTALTOTAL $4,968.2$4,968.2 100.0%100.0%

General Fund Appropriations, FY 2008General Fund Appropriations, FY 2008

NOTE: Total excludes potential deficit NOTE: Total excludes potential deficit appropriations.appropriations.

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Page 11: Mississippi Fiscal Summary January, 2008. General Fund Estimates, FY 2008 Beginning cash balance, 7/1/07 $226,197,915 1/ Estimated revenues 4,933,200,000

Allocation of General Fund, Allocation of General Fund, FY 1990, FY 2000, and FY 2008FY 1990, FY 2000, and FY 2008

Exp.Exp. Exp.Exp. App.App.19901990 20002000 20082008

Public EducationPublic Education 46.8%46.8% 39.3%39.3% 45.0%45.0%Higher EducationHigher Education 17.7%17.7% 18.7%18.7% 16.8%16.8%Social WelfareSocial Welfare 9.5% 9.5% 8.9% 8.9% 10.5%10.5%Debt ServiceDebt Service 0.8%0.8% 4.6%4.6% 5.8%5.8%

CorrectionsCorrections 3.7% 3.7% 7.2% 7.2% 5.4% 5.4%Hospitals/Hospital SchoolsHospitals/Hospital Schools 4.4% 4.4% 6.2% 6.2% 5.2% 5.2%Agriculture & Economic Dev.Agriculture & Economic Dev. 3.5%3.5% 3.2% 3.2% 2.3% 2.3%Military, Police & Veterans Aff.Military, Police & Veterans Aff. 2.1%2.1% 2.2% 2.2%

2.0% 2.0%

Local AssistanceLocal Assistance 3.5%3.5% 2.2% 2.2% 1.7% 1.7%Fiscal AffairsFiscal Affairs 2.5%2.5% 2.1% 2.1% 1.6% 1.6%Conservation & RecreationConservation & Recreation 1.8%1.8% 2.0% 2.0% 1.1% 1.1%All OthersAll Others 3.7%3.7% 3.4% 3.4% 2.6% 2.6%

TOTALTOTAL 100.0%100.0% 100.0%100.0% 100.0%100.0%11

Page 12: Mississippi Fiscal Summary January, 2008. General Fund Estimates, FY 2008 Beginning cash balance, 7/1/07 $226,197,915 1/ Estimated revenues 4,933,200,000

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Total Revenues, General and Special Total Revenues, General and Special Funds, Funds,

FY 1990, FY 2000, and FY 2007FY 1990, FY 2000, and FY 2007

FYFY FYFY FYFY19901990 20002000 20072007

General Fund General Fund 46.7%46.7% 37.7%37.7% 29.9%29.9%

Special FundsSpecial Funds

State Sources State Sources 20.3%20.3% 29.1%29.1% 18.9%18.9%

Federal SourcesFederal Sources 33.0%33.0% 33.2%33.2% 51.2%51.2%

Page 13: Mississippi Fiscal Summary January, 2008. General Fund Estimates, FY 2008 Beginning cash balance, 7/1/07 $226,197,915 1/ Estimated revenues 4,933,200,000

Working Cash-Stabilization Working Cash-Stabilization Reserve FundReserve Fund

(In Millions)(In Millions)

FY 2005 $34.9

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* As of June 30.

FY 2006 $18.9

FY 2007 $73.4