mitigation of climate change

Mitigation of Climate Change

IPCC Working Group III contribution to the

Fourth Assessment Report

The Process Three-year process Assessment of published

literature Extensive review by

independent and government experts

Summary for Policy Makers approved line-by-line by all 180 IPCC member governments (Bangkok, May 4)

Full report and technical summary accepted without discussion

Working Group III Organization

As part of the IPCC, Working Group III is charged to assess available information on the science of climate change, in particular that arising from human activities. In performing its assessments the WGIII is concerned with the scientific, technical, environmental, and economic and social aspects of mitigation of climate change.

Working Group III Bureau

Co-Chairs Ogunlade Davidson (Sierra Leone)

Bert Metz (The Netherlands)

Vice-Chairs Ismail A.R. Elgizouli (Sudan)

Eduardo Calvo (Peru)Ramón Pichs Madruga (Cuba)R.T.M. Sutamihardja (Indonesia)Olaf Hohmeyer (Germany)Taha M. Zatari (Saudi Arabia

The People

Lead Authors: 168 From developing countries: 55From EITs: 5From OECD countries: 108

Contributing authors: 85 Expert Reviewers: 485

Mitigation potential Mitigation potential:

Emission reduction, relative to emission baselines, that is economically attractive at a given “price of carbon”

Market potential: Based on private costs and private

rates of return Expected to occur under forecast

market conditions Including policies and measures

currently in place Barriers limit actual uptake

Mitigation potential (cont.)

Economic potential: Takes into account social costs and

benefits and social rates of return, Assuming that market efficiency is

improved by policies and measures Barriers are removed

All sectors and regions have the potential to contribute

Note: estimates do not include non-technical options, such as lifestyle changes.

How can emissions be reduced?

Sector Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available. (Selected)

Key mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialized before 2030. (Selected)

Energy Supply

efficiency; fuel switching; nuclear power; renewable (hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy); combined heat and power; early applications of CO2 Capture and Storage (CCS)

CCS for gas, biomass and coal-fired electricity generating facilities; advanced nuclear power; advanced renewables (tidal and wave energy, concentrating solar, solar PV)

How can emissions be reduced? (cont.)

Sector (Selected) Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available.


Transport More fuel efficient vehicles; hybrid vehicles; biofuels; modal shifts from road transport to rail and public transport systems; cycling, walking; land-use planning

Second generation biofuels; higher efficiency aircraft; advanced electric and hybrid vehicles with more powerful and reliable batteries




Industry More efficient electrical equipment; heat and power recovery; material recycling; control of non-CO2 gas emissions

Advanced energy efficiency; CCS for cement, ammonia, and iron manufacture; inert electrodes for aluminium manufacture




Buildings Efficient lighting; efficient appliances and air conditioners; improved insulation ; solar heating and cooling; alternatives for fluorinated gases in insulation and appliances

Integrated design of commercial buildings including technologies, such as intelligent meters that provide feedback and control; solar PV integrated in buildings

Mitigation potential in the industry and buildings sector till 2030

Industry: Potential predominantly in energy intensive industries. Many efficient installations in developing countires Barriers include slow stock turnover and (for SMEs) lack

of financial resources, inability to absorb technical information

Buildings: About 30% of projected GHG emissions by 2030 can be

avoided with net economic benefit. New buildings: >75% savings compared to current (at low

to zero additional cost) Barriers include availability of technologies, financing, cost

of reliable information and limitations in building designs

Changes in lifestyle and behaviour patterns can contribute to climate change mitigation

Changes in occupant behaviour, cultural patterns and consumer choice in buildings.

Behaviour of staff in industrial organizations in light of reward systems

Reduction of car usage and efficient driving style, in relation to urban planning and availability of public transport

There are also co-benefits of mitigation

Near–term health benefits from reduced air pollution may offset a substantial fraction of mitigation costs

Mitigation can also be positive for: energy security, balance of trade improvement, provision of modern energy services to rural areas, sustainable agriculture and employment

Policies are available to governments to realize mitigation of climate change

Effectiveness of policies depends on national circumstances, their design, interaction, stringency and implementation

Integrating climate policies in broader development policies

Regulations and standards Taxes and charges Tradable permits Financial incentives Voluntary agreements Information instruments Research and development

Selected sectoral policies, measures and instruments that have shown to be environmentally effective

Sector Policies[1], measures and instruments shown to be environmentally effective

Key constraints or opportunities

Energy supply

Reduction of fossil fuel subsidies

Resistance by vested interests may make them difficult to implementTaxes or carbon charges

on fossil fuels

Feed-in tariffs for renewable energy technologies

May be appropriate to create markets for low emissions technologies

Renewable energy obligations

Producer subsidies

[1] Public RD&D investment in low emission technologies have proven to be effective in all sectors.

Selected sectoral policies, measures and instruments that have shown to be environmentally effective

Sector Policies, measures and instruments shown to be environmentally effective

Key constraints or opportunities

Transport Mandatory fuel economy, biofuel blending and CO2

standards for road transport

Partial coverage of vehicle fleet may limit effectiveness

Taxes on vehicle purchase, registration, use and motor fuels, road and parking pricing

Effectiveness may drop with higher incomes

Influence mobility needs through land use regulations, and infrastructure planning

Particularly appropriate for countries that are building up their transportation systemsInvestment in attractive public

transport facilities and non-motorized forms of transport

[1] Public RD&D investment in low emission technologies have proven to be effective in all sectors.

Mitigation investments

Energy infrastructure investment decisions, (20 trillion US$ till 2030) will have long term impacts on GHG emissions.

The widespread diffusion of low-carbon technologies may take many decades, even if early investments in these technologies are made attractive.

Returning global energy-related CO2 emissions to 2005 levels by 2030 would require a large shift in the pattern of investment, although the net additional investment required ranges from negligible to 5-10%

It is often more cost-effective to invest in end-use energy efficiency improvement than in increasing energy supply

The importance of technology policies

The lower the stabilization levels (550 ppm CO2-eq or lower) the greater the need for more efficient RD&D efforts and investment in new technologies during the next few decades

Government support is important for effective technology development, innovation and deployment through

financial contributions, tax credits, standard setting market creation.

BUT, government funding for most energy research programmes has been declining for nearly two decades: now about half of 1980 level.

International agreements

Notable achievements of the UNFCCC/Kyoto Protocol that may provide the foundation for future mitigation efforts: global response to the climate problem, stimulation of an array of national policies, the creation of an international carbon market

and new institutional mechanisms

International agreements (cont.)

Future agreements: Greater cooperative efforts to reduce emissions

will help to reduce global costs for achieving a given level of mitigation, or will improve environmental effectiveness

Improving, and expanding the scope of, market mechanisms (such as emission trading, Joint Implementation and CDM) could reduce overall mitigation costs

Assessed literature on future agreements on basis of criteria for environmental/ cost effectiveness, distributional/ institutional feasibility

Examples of side-effects of climate mitigation

OPTIONS

Energy: efficiency, renewables, fuel-switching

SYNERGIES

air quality supply security employment costs (efficiency)

TRADEOFFS

particulate emissions (diesel) biodiversity (biofuels) costs (renewables)

waste: landfill gas capture, incineration

health & safety employment energy advantages

ground water pollution costs

Non-climate policies can influence GHG emissions as much as specific climate policies

Sectors Non-climate policies -- Candidates for integrating climate concerns

Possible influence (% of global emissions)

Macro-economy

Taxes, subsidies, other fiscal policies

All GHG emissions (100%)

Electricity Diversification to low-carbon sources, demand management, limit distribution losses

Electricity sector emissions (20 %)

Oil-imports Diversification energy sources/decrease intensity -> enhance energy security

GHGs from oil product imports (20 %)

Non-climate policies can influence GHG emissions as much as specific climate policies

Sectors Non-climate policies -- Candidates for integrating climate concerns

Possible influence (% of global emissions)

Insurance (buildings, infrastructure)

Differentiated premiums, liability insurance exclusion, improved conditions for green products

GHG emissions buildings, transport (20%)

Bank lending Sector/ country strategies, avoid lock-in into old technologies in developing countries

Notably development projects (25%)

Rural energy Policies promoting LPG, kerosene and electricity for cooking

Extra emissions over biomass (<2 %)

The Summary for Policy Makers , the Technical Summary and the full Report (subject to editing) can be downloaded from www.mnp.nl/ipcc

Further information:IPCC Working Group III Technical Support Unit at the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency:[email protected]

Sources

Bert MetzCo-chair IPCC WG III

Risoe International Energy Conference, Roskilde, Denmark, May 22, 2007

mitigation of climate change

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