mni political risk analysis global covid-19 tracker ......02-jun 02-jul 02-aug 02-sep us chart 3....

MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS – Global COVID-19

Tracker – September 3

by Tom Lake

COVID-19 Trends and Developments

• Over the seven-day period from August 27 to September 2, Spain registered its

highest ever number of new COVID-19 cases, with an average of 8,529 new cases

per day in that week. The average 1.9% day-on-day increase in cases in that period

is the highest since the week ending April 23.

• The Czech Republic recorded a new 24-hour high for new COVID-19 cases on

September 2, with 656 added to the total. The country’s overall number of cases

remains low by regional standards, at 25,773 resulting in 425 fatalities. It should be

noted, though, that the Czech Republic’s increase on September 2 in per capita

terms at 6.1/100k population was higher than some of the world’s most hard-hit

countries such as India, South Africa, and Mexico.

• Norway registered 163 new cases on September 2, its highest 24-hour case total

since April 7. The country’s case total stands at 11,034, lower than fellow Nordics

Sweden and Denmark, but higher than Finland’s.

• Ukraine recorded its highest 24-hour fatality total from COVID-19 on September 2,

with 51 fatalities attributed to the virus, while also registering its largest average daily

increase (2,311) in the 7-day period ending September 2. Ukraine has 2,705 COVID-

19 fatalities from 128,883 recorded cases.

Chart 1. COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)

Source: JHU, MNI. As of 0600BST September 3. N.b. Each dot represents a single day’s figures, data for past three months

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

02-Jun 02-Jul 02-Aug 02-Sep

Global

Total Fatalities (LHS) Total Cases (LHS)

Fatalities, D-t-D % chg (RHS) Cases, D-t-D % chg (RHS)

Table 1. COVID-19 Data Table

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b As of 1020BST September 3. Recovery numbers for Belgium, Hong Kong, Spain, Sweden and the UK

not available.

Country Confirmed

Cases

New Cases Last

Week

Recovered Deceased Fatalities in Past Week

Mortality Rate (per

100 recorded

cases)

Rate of Increase in Cases

(7-day average)

Global 26,031,410 1,857,822 17,304,650 863,028 37,367 3.3 1.05%

Argentina 439,172 68,984 315,530 9,118 1,279 2.1 2.43%

Australia 26,049 727 21,910 678 106 2.6 0.39%

Belgium 85,911 2,881 N/A 9,898 19 11.5 0.48%

Brazil 3,997,865 280,709 3,387,309 123,780 6,115 3.1 1.02%

Canada 131,941 3,561 116,866 9,182 41 7.0 0.40%

Chile 414,739 12,374 387,683 11,344 354 2.7 0.43%

China 89,953 169 84,695 4,727 14 5.3 0.03%

Colombia 633,321 61,078 479,567 20,345 2,161 3.2 1.42%

France 331,060 39,686 87,418 30,692 143 9.3 1.80%

Germany 247,411 8,401 220,730 9,322 37 3.8 0.47%

Hong Kong 4,830 96 N/A 93 14 1.9 0.26%

India 3,853,406 543,172 2,970,492 67,376 6,904 1.7 2.17%

Iran 378,752 13,146 326,801 21,797 777 5.8 0.49%

Italy 271,515 8,975 208,201 35,497 39 13.1 0.47%

Japan 69,619 4,840 58,108 1,327 97 1.9 0.98%

Mexico 610,957 37,069 504,541 65,816 3,740 10.8 0.87%

Peru 657,129 49,747 480,177 29,068 1,067 4.4 1.16%

Russia 1,001,965 33,668 824,783 17,365 727 1.7 0.49%

Saudi Arabia 317,486 6,650 292,510 3,956 201 1.2 0.30%

Singapore 56,860 365 55,891 27 0 0.05 0.08%

South Africa 630,595 14,894 553,456 14,389 887 2.3 0.33%

South Korea 20,644 1,938 15,529 329 16 8.0 1.32%

Spain 479,554 59,705 N/A 29,194 223 6.1 1.87%

Sweden 84,532 708 N/A 5,820 4 6.9 0.11%

UK 338,676 9,830 N/A 41,514 49 12.3 0.41%

US 6,113,510 291,691 2,231,757 185,720 6,046 3.0 0.69%

Chart Pack: COVID-19 Cases and Fatalities, Nominal and % Chg Day-to-Day (5dma)

The chart pack below records the number of COVID-19 cases and fatalities resulting from

COVID-19 recorded in select countries over the past three months in each respective

country. The charts also display the rate of increase in recorded cases and fatalities in each

country. Legend below can be used for all national charts.

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000


Argentina

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000


Australia

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000


Belgium

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000


Brazil

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000


Canada

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000


Chile

0.00%

0.05%

0.10%

0.15%

0.20%

0.25%

0.30%

0.35%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000


China

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000


Colombia

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


France

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


Germany

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000


Hong Kong

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

-

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000


India

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000


Iran

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000


Italy

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000


Japan

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000


Mexico

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000


Peru

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000


Russia

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000


Saudi Arabia

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000


Singapore

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000


South Africa

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000


South Korea

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000


Spain

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000


Sweden

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b Global legend applies to all charts. All data correct as of 0600BST September 3, and represents full-

day data submissions, rather than intra-day figures. Each dot indicates the data from a single day.

Chart 2. Countries with 10 Highest Number Of New Cases In Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 2. Countries in descending order of new cases: India, Brazil, US, Argentina, Colombia,

Spain, France, Peru, Mexico, Russia.

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000


UK

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000


US

Chart 3. Countries with 10 Highest Number of New Cases Per Capita in Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 2. Countries in descending order of new cases per capita: Israel, Maldives, Argentina,

Brazil, Costa Rica, Bahrain, Luxembourg, Spain, Colombia, Montenegro. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

Chart 4. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Total Recorded Cases Per 100 Head of

State’s Population

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data for Sep 2. Countries in descending order of new cases per capita: Qatar, Bahrain, Panama, Chile,

Kuwait, Peru, Brazil, US, Oman, Maldives. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

Chart 5. Countries with 10 Highest Number Of Fatalities In Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 2. Countries in descending order of fatalities in past 24 hours: Brazil, US, India, Mexico,

Colombia, Argentina, South Africa, Iran, Peru, Russia.

Chart 6. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Fatalities Per Capita in Past 24 Hours

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from Sep 2. Countries in descending order of fatalities per capita: Bolivia, Colombia, Brazil,

Mexico, Argentina, Congo-Brazzaville, Moldova, Peru, Honduras, US. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

Chart 7. Countries with 10 Highest Number of Total Recorded Fatalities Per 100 Head

of State’s Population

Source: JHU, MNI. N.b. Data from September 2. Countries in descending order of fatalities per capita: Peru, Belgium, Spain,

UK, Chile, Italy, Brazil, Sweden, US, Mexico. Countries with population below 100k excluded.

mni political risk analysis global covid-19 tracker ......02-jun 02-jul 02-aug 02-sep us chart 3....

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