SCENARIOS

HYDERALI C.K 106004

What are scenarios?

• Scenarios are stories or narratives that portray what might happen, why it might happen, and with what consequences

• Scenarios can be very powerful tools to contemplate the range of possible futures that could develop from the influence of key drivers, events and issues.

Definitions

• “a tool for ordering one’s perceptions about alternative future environments in which one’s decisions might be played out” (Schwartz, 1996).

Why use scenarios?

• Offer a non-linear and dynamic way of thinking

• Ability to deal with complexity, to consider multiple variables simultaneously, and with ‘different interpretation’ over time

• Counteracts the historical bias of quantitative forecasting approaches

• Challenge assumptions

Why use scenarios? (II)

• “Scenario thinking, by setting discussions in a time frame beyond their current assignment and beyond facts and forecasts, allows for a discussion with less defensive behaviour and a more shared sense of purpose” (Ringland, 2002)

Objectives and main uses

• Development of strategy and policy – organisational

• Heuristic device – ‘re-perceiving’ – in organisational change

• Stimulate critical thinking, challenge assumptions – within organisations, the general population

Purpose of scenario

• To display the interactions among several trends and events to provide a holistic picture of the future

• To check the internal consistency and set of forecasts on which they need are based

• To depict a future situation in a way readily understandable by the non specialist in the subject area

Procedure for creating a scenarios(1)

• Develop a framework for the scenario• Forecast the technology(technologies) to be

considered(technology developments)• Plot the scenario(dates)• Write the scenario

Develop a framework

• Each sector of environment -trend -change -technology -critical decision -who will decide

Forecast the technology

• Deployment -when ? -what scale? -how rapid adoption? -what impacts from tech? -critical decision on tech -who are decisionmakers?

Plot the scenario

• Each scenario=sequence of events & decisions• Event=lead to key decision

Writing scenarios -approaches

• Looking backward-past =story and problem, future +solution=essay

• Viewpoint character=someone see or taking part

• God’s eye view=more the one see• Diary=extract personnel letter

Procedure(2)

• Step 1:uncovering the decision• Step 2:information-hunting and gathering• Step 3:identifying the driving forces of a scenario• Step 4:uncover the predetermined elements• Step 5:identify the critical uncertainties• Step 6:composing scenarios• Step 7:Analysis of implications of the decisions

according to scenarios• Step 8:Selection of leading indicators and signposts

Major procedure building scenarios

• Analysing the past & present• Identify the trends and driving forces• Extract the trends which can extend into the

future• Set 3 or 4 appropriate scenarios (optimistic,

pessimistic)• make scenarios plausible by using the trends

How many scenarios?

• “Scenarios are not conceived of one at a time. You develop a range of two or three possible futures, allowing you to address an array of possibilities and rehearse your responses to each of them. At the same time, more than four scenarios tend to be too complex: you cannot keep track of their ramifications in your mind” (Schwartz)

CASE STUDY OF SCENARIO

EMPLOYMENT FOR ALL THROUGH MNREGA

PREPARED BY VISHNU JANNET SHAMEER ARYA HYDERALI

INTRODUCTION

• Employment schemes are aimed providing job

• Employment on demand.• Legal right.• Universal entitlement.• Participatory approach• Full transparency

UNEMPLOYEMENT UPTO HERE

• Projection of unemployement for the 1990-2000

• 1.backlog in the beginning of 1990- 28million• 2.net entrants to the labour force during

1990-95 37million• 3.total unemployed for the 8th plan(1+2)

65million

CONT……………

4.new entrants to the labour force during 1995-200041million5.total for 9th plan(1997-02)

=106millionJob opportunities

needed to be created1.1997-02 53million2.2002-07 58million3.2007-12 55million

SCHEMES

• National Literacy Mission(1975)-aware the scheme• Indira Awas Yojna(1986)-fund for the shelter• National computer saksharata mission(95)-awareness

about new tech• Jawhar Rozgar Yojna(1989)-sustain&additional

employement• Swarnajayanthi Gram Sarozgar Yojna(1999)-job+food

security• Sampoorna Grameen Rozgar Yojna(2001)-self emplo• NREGA(2005) and in 2009 it is renamed after Mahathma

Gandhi as MNREGA

• Employment within 15 days of application.• Unemployment allowance.• Work within 5 kilometres.• Payment within 15 days.• No gender discrimination.• Basic worksite facilities.

NREGA: Basic Entitlements

NREGA: Employment Generation, 2006-7

• Total: 90 crore person-days

• Per job card: 24 person-days

• Per rural household: 17 person-days

• Minimum “requirement”:a 200 crore person-days

Share of Women in NREGA Employment

TRENDS & DRIVING FORCES

-Employment on a massive scale.-purchasing power-irrespective of poverty line-Women empowerment-NREGA is a lifeline for the rural poor-Massive progress compared with earlier years!-Awareness levels have improved

-Environment awareness-Corruption

-Natural disaster

SCENARIOS

• Employment Assurance• Diverse schemes. SGSY, IAY, NREGA, SJGRY, Saksharatha Mission, EMS

bhavana padhathi-rural devpt• Job for skilled /unskilled unemployed individuals-Education• Registered and willing individuals are guaranteed jobs-point overall

growth• Reduce educated unemployment to below 2%-greater expected

opportunity(JRY)• Compulsory education to all between 6-14yrs (21-A).Education a

fundamental right-more skilled employement• Aimed at the building productive work force there by bringing

wholesome change to the country-performance matrix• Aadhaar (UID)-Govt;aware about range of opportunity

Economic Development

• Acceleration of GDP growth and increase in per capita income-Even in the recession period

• Enhanced economic activity(demand and supply increases)

• Economic independence –GDP higher than US• Women empowerment-every scheme(30%&no

gender discrimination)• Effective decentralization-every scheme target

rural

CONT……………..

• Infrastructure development-non-skilled work • Less dependent economy• Micro financing-banking sector to rural• Reducing rural urban bias-

road,communication etc improves

Eco-friendly growth

• Sustainable development-deforesting • Increase in agricultural GDP growth rate• Carbon tax-concened about environment• Organic agriculture(manure)-health awareness• Reducing pesticides-past unlikely event,export• Afforestation, water conservation,

Reforestation-global warming

CONT………….

• Disaster Management(Effectiveness of NGOs)-flood situation in northern state• renewal of agriculture an allied

techniques-increased research• Construction of roads-cutting of trees

Integration of schemes & with organisations

• Integration of programs to improve functionality

-JAWAHAR ROZGAR YOJANA= National RuralEmployment programme (NREP)& Rural Landless Employment Guarantee Programme(RLEGP) EMS bhavana pdhadhi works provides to

MNREGA workers

Cont……

• Semigovt:demand work force from govt;-wage less

• Vacancy in the disaster management force-Increased flood and drought in NORTH

• More coordination b/w state &central govt;-25%-75%

PLOT (optimistic)2009-unemploment rate 9.7%2010> Indian Legislative Assembly Passed The Right of Children to Free and Compulsory Education Act2010> basic wage elevated to rs.1502011> Assure more job guarantee days for below poverty line people 2011> govt. decided to introduce skill development/improvement course to MNREGA members-make skilled

• 2012- petroleum price hiked to $104 per barrel-last 5year doubled the price

• 2012-High Price Rise • 2012- Govt. takes land for lease which is not

cultivating recent 5 years –price Rice(production)• 2013-MNREGA basic pay increase to 250-• 2014- recording the performance of the employ-

performance matrix(more serious work)• 2015- declaring awards for the best group of

workers-now awards best adminstr&panchayath• 2015-Govt;ordered for compulsory internal ship to

the graduateholder-temperory vaccancy in the skilled sector

• 2015-Review the whole development up to here • 2016- BSNL recruited 2000 persons from

MNREGA registered members.-wage less• 2017- more private and public registered

companies started to follow BSNL • 2017- wages increases to 350-demand the wage

balances with state minimum wage • 2018- saksharatha mission completes to a

majority extent- compulsory education• 2018- wages through banks-rural sector banking• 2020- achieve 97% of employment

Scenario plot(pessimistic)

• 2011-Demand for wages =basic pay of the state• 2011-The additional wage not based on the

index linked fund• 2012-Failure for the inclusion of skilled workers-

numerous educated people application• 2013-Lesser no.of internship vaccancies-

kpsc,upsc&ssc recruiting • 2013-More corruption identified in the MNREGA

fund

Cont………

• 2014-Petrol price rises severely• 2014-FMC prices rises exponentially • 2014-A non-UPA party win in the parliament election-

corruption scam • 2015-Govt;lessen the fund for MNREGA-lack of utlisation of

fund• 2016-Bureocrat put forward another scheme,assembly pass

it-lack of active working of other schemes• 2016-MNREGA merges with the new schemes • 2017- govt; manely taken care of new scheme in the budget• 2018-MNREG dies out but the merged scheme working

successfully

The SCENARIO plot(neutral)

2010)The unemployment accounts 11% of total Indian population

2010)Right to get Free and compulsory education

2010)Poverty rate accounts for 41.06%

2010) Aadhar number is provided to 45000 people. They are now a 12 digit number

2011) Central govt. increased the basic pay of workers as Rs.150

2011) Petrol price hiked to $109 per barrel

2011) High rise in price of daily using commodities and goods

2011)NDA and Left parties started Bharath Bandh

2011)Cabinet meeting decided to increase internal production

2011) All national banks are advised to grand interest free loans to those who are wishing to start home industry or small scale industries

2011)Banks are encouraged to start micro financing groups in rural area

2011) Kerala govt. starts to take lands on lease and these lands are given to the Kudumbashree units to start cultivation.

2012) The job seekers(both skilled and unskilled ) are asked to register their profile at MNREGA data banks

2012) Temporary vacancies in various departments get filled from the MNREGA registered members

2012) Govt. implements skill development/ improvement programs to MNREGA workers

2012)Qualified members are assigned to assist and promote both National Literacy Mission and Rashtreeya Computer Saksharatha Mission

2013) literacy rate increased to 75%

2013) Project GREEN INDIA: MNREGA members are assigned to do and maintain afforestation /reforestation and water conservation works

2013) MNREGA wages increased to 200,set specific for MNREG -state govt:declaring basic pay for each sector(cashew)

2014) Two civil service officers and one local MP from Uttar Pradesh got arrested for misusing the fund allotted for various MNREGA activities

2014) The UN general assembly congratulated India for being the fastest afforesting country

2014)The 600 million people of India, now have their own unique identity number

2014)New government with a majority of young blood came to power

2015) Kerala and Andhra Pradesh declared 100% computer literacy

2015)Bank account is made as a compulsory for MNREGA members

2015)Most banks started opening branches and ATM counters in all the villages

2015)Wages get distributed through banks

2016) National Literacy Mission declared its mission accomplished

2016) Companies are allowed to do recruitment from MNREGA data banks

2017) Maoist attack on check dam construction site, assassinated 180 workers

2017) Terrorist attack on Delhi Airport

2017) Special cabinet meeting- compulsory military service of one year for all those who completed 21yrs of age and able

2018) basic wage get increased to Rs. 350

2018) 79% people now make bread their own

2018) India emerging as a producing country than consuming country.

2018) food production brake the records

2019) Rashtreey Computer Saksharatha Mission announces its success

2020) more than 96% people have job.

Conclusion

• Reduce educated unemployment to below 5%.• Create 70 million new work opportunities.• Raise real wage rate of unskilled workers by 20

percent

Scenario-case study

The Future of Clothing- Joseph Coates

From Joseph Coates Perspectiveframework

• ENVIRONMENT• Films• Fashion• Culture• Climate• raw materials.• cultural transitions -18th to the 19th

-19th to the 20th centuries.

Factors affecting clothing

paradigm

• Women entry into WW-2• Overwhelming the American trend• Change in attitude• More concerned about comfort

Higlights

• Economy not affected by the style change• More aware about science & technology• Medical knowledge• Skin-decoration popular• Vegetarian mind (avoid natural leather)• Disposable (sports,millitary etc)• Washable with water• New technology

Cont………….

• Fashion industry always focus on short term basis

• Textile industry focus on middle class • Environmental (global warming)• No gender discrimination (official, factory etc)• women = 90% women’s clothes + 24- 30 % men’s-this trend will increase

Scenarios

• Pessimistic E-textiles-equipped with profile, jokes

etc,colour change possible, Fragrances, pheromones

completely water-washable• Disposability = both military+ recreational

activities

Cont………………

• clothing sector is rental• Vegetarianism=away from natural leather• The Internet=marketing

pessimistic

• Sexin determinate• cross-dressing• Skin as cloth

Inference

• comfortable • better fitting • durable• easier to clean or discard• health and safety• respond to the environment • improve our work and recreation • Communicate with people automatically

Thank you