mobile handset population in finland 2005-2011
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Mobile Handset Population in
Finland 2005-2011
MoMIE project report
May 15th, 2012
Network Economics
Research Group
Antti Riikonen
Timo Smura
MoMIE project: Comprehensive view
on mobile service usage
Source: Modified from Kivi, 2009
MoMIE RESEARCH:
• Surveys on handset panel
• Handset monitoring
• Mobile operator
accounting systems
• IP traffic measurements
• Web analytics
Handset population
data collection
Slide 2
• Mobile operators’ accounting systems
– Data from end of Q3, annually 2005–2011
– Feature information: GfK and public sources
• Represents 80-99% of devices in use in Finnish mobile networks (~98% in 2011)
– Data from DNA, Elisa, and TeliaSonera
– Includes devices observed at operators’ network
– Some error due to • No full data on Apple iPhone from 2005-2010 >> available in 2011
• Mobile subscriber churn during observation period
• Differences in operator-specific data sets
• Unidentified devices and missing feature-data of handset models
Data collection: handset population
Slide 3
• Size of the active device population depends on definition – Relative shares of handsets and data terminals based on MoMIE measurements
– Here, active device population assumed to equal the total number of subscriptions in Finland, as reported by the operators in public
• USB modems major data terminal category – large scale introduction during fall 2007
Growth in data terminals continues
Slide 4
* Other device types (e.g. desktop
phones) excluded from the rest
of the analysis. Unknown
devices included in estimation
of error margins.
*
**
** USB modems, data cards,
tablets, embedded data
modules
97 % 91 % 96 %
94 % 91 % 85 % 79 %
1 % 1 %
2 %
5 %
8 %
13 % 19 %
2 % 8 % 2 %
1 %
2 %
2 %
2 %
0
2
4
6
8
10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Nu
mb
er o
f d
evic
es
Mil
lio
ns
Other/Unknown
Data terminal
Handset
Fragmentation of handset population
Slide 5
• Early signs of slowdown
in fragmentation visible
– Amount of available models
has remained rather stable
since 2008
• Cumulative share of
– Top 1 model
• 14% (2005)
• 3% (2011)
– Top 10 models
• 50% (2005)
• 24% (2011)
0 %
20 %
40 %
60 %
80 %
100 %
1 10 100
Cu
mu
lati
ve s
ha
re o
f a
ll h
an
dse
ts
Top handset models (log)
Cumulative share of top handsets
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Top handset models in use in Finland
Slide 6
All mobile handsets: Smartphones:
Rank Model name Share of all
handsets
Change
from 2010
1 (2) Nokia 5230 2,7%
2 (9) Nokia C5-00 2,1%
3 (11) Apple iPhone 4 2,1% -
4 (15) Nokia E7-00 1,3%
5 (19) Nokia E52 1,2%
6 (21) Nokia C7-00 1,2%
7 (22) Nokia N8-00 1,2%
8 (25) Apple iPhone 3GS 1,0% -
9 (26) Nokia C6-00 0,9%
10 (27) Nokia E75 0,9%
Rank Model name Share of all
handsets
Change
from 2010
Packet
data*
1 Nokia 2760 2,8% Yes (2G)
2 Nokia 5230 2,7% Yes (3G)
3 Nokia 2730 Classic 2,7% Yes (3G)
4 Nokia 3720 Classic 2,6% Yes (2G)
5 Nokia 7230 2,6% Yes (3G)
6 Nokia 3120 Classic 2,4% Yes (3G)
7 Nokia 3710 Fold 2,3% Yes (3G)
8 Nokia 1100 2,2% No
9 Nokia C5-00 2,1% Yes (2G)
10 Nokia 2330 Classic 2,1% Yes (2G)
11 Apple iPhone 4 2,1% - ** Yes (3G)
12 Nokia C2-01 2,0% Yes (3G)
13 Nokia 2720 Fold 2,0% Yes (2G)
14 Samsung GT-S5230 1,3% Yes (2G)
15 Nokia E7-00 1,3% Yes (3G)
* All 2G devices have GPRS/EDGE capability,
all 3G devices have GPRS/EDGE/WCDMA capability
** No data on Apple iPhone in 2010
90% 88% 89% 88% 89% 86% 81%
2% 4% 4% 5% 6% 8% 10%
2% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 2%
5% 3% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0%
3%
1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 4%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Mobile handsets by manufacturer 2005-2011
Others
Apple
BenQ/Siemens
Sony/Ericsson
Samsung
Nokia
Nokia dominates handset population
Slide 7
* No full data on Apple 2007-2010
*
No error margins available. Unidentified devices and unidentified manufacturers neglected from the analysis
• Others – HTC 1%
– ZTE 1%
• Samsung – Share growing
– > 2/3 of Samsung devices with proprietary Samsung OS
• Nokia – Decrease of 5% points
– Detailed analysis next
Mobile handsets by operating system
Slide 8
No error margins available. Unidentified devices and unidentified operating systems neglected from the analysis
Others
Symbian^3 / Anna/Belle
Symbian S60 5. ed.
Symbian S60 3.ed
Symbian OS
Symbian S80 (+90,UIQ)
Nokia Series 40, 6. ed.
Nokia Series 40, 5. ed.
Nokia Series 40, 3. ed.
Nokia Series 40
Nokia OS
Others
Symbian^3 / Anna/Belle
Symbian S60 5. ed.
Symbian S60 3.ed
Symbian OS
Symbian S80 (+90,UIQ)
Nokia Series 40, 6. ed.
Nokia Series 40, 5. ed.
Nokia Series 40, 3. ed.
Nokia Series 40
Nokia OS
Others
Symbian^3 / Anna/Belle
Symbian S60 5. ed.
Symbian S60 3.ed
Symbian OS
Symbian S80 (+90,UIQ)
Nokia Series 40, 6. ed.
Nokia Series 40, 5. ed.
Nokia Series 40, 3. ed.
Nokia Series 40
Nokia OS
Others
Symbian^3 / Anna/Belle
Symbian S60 5. ed.
Symbian S60 3.ed
Symbian OS
Symbian S80 (+90,UIQ)
Nokia Series 40, 6. ed.
Nokia Series 40, 5. ed.
Nokia Series 40, 3. ed.
Nokia Series 40
Nokia OS
Others
Symbian^3 / Anna/Belle
Symbian S60 5. ed.
Symbian S60 3.ed
Symbian OS
Symbian S80 (+90,UIQ)
Nokia Series 40, 6. ed.
Nokia Series 40, 5. ed.
Nokia Series 40, 3. ed.
Nokia Series 40
Nokia OS
Others
Symbian^3 / Anna/Belle
Symbian S60 5. ed.
Symbian S60 3.ed
Symbian OS
Symbian S80 (+90,UIQ)
Nokia Series 40, 6. ed.
Nokia Series 40, 5. ed.
Nokia Series 40, 3. ed.
Nokia Series 40
Nokia OS
Others
Symbian^3 / Anna/Belle
Symbian S60 5. ed.
Symbian S60 3.ed
Symbian OS
Symbian S80 (+90,UIQ)
Nokia Series 40, 6. ed.
Nokia Series 40, 5. ed.
Nokia Series 40, 3. ed.
Nokia Series 40
Nokia OS
Others
Symbian^3 / Anna/Belle
Symbian S60 5. ed.
Symbian S60 3.ed
Symbian OS
Symbian S80 (+90,UIQ)
Nokia Series 40, 6. ed.
Nokia Series 40, 5. ed.
Nokia Series 40, 3. ed.
Nokia Series 40
Nokia OS
Others
Symbian^3 / Anna/Belle
Symbian S60 5. ed.
Symbian S60 3.ed
Symbian OS
Symbian S80 (+90,UIQ)
Nokia Series 40, 6. ed.
Nokia Series 40, 5. ed.
Nokia Series 40, 3. ed.
Nokia Series 40
Nokia OS
• Others 2011:
– Mobile phones 10%
– Smartphones 9%
• Total shares 2011:
– Symbian 26%
– Series 40 45%
52%
39%
30% 23%
18% 13% 10%
32%
34%
31%
23%
15%
9%
6%
0%
2%
10%
14%
12%
8%
5%
0%
8%
21%
23%
20%
0%
7%
14%
2%
3%
3% 1% 1%
4%
9%
7%
5% 3%
2%
1%
8%
14% 17%
18%
13%
0% 1%
6%
7%
0%
4%
10% 11% 10% 12% 11% 13% 19%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
• Smartphone definition:
– Possibility to install native
applications
– e.g. Symbian, iOS, Android,
Windows Phone, Maemo,
MeeGo
• Share of smartphones
from 6% (’05) to 33% (’11)
– Smartphone share in sales
~56% in September 2011
Share of smartphones increasing
No error margins available. Unidentified devices and unidentified operating systems neglected from the analysis
Note:
- No data on iOS from 2007-2010
- Nokia Windows Phone not yet
available in Finland during 2011
Slide 9
6%
13%
19% 20%
22%
26%
22%
4%
1%
5%
3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Sh
are
ou
t o
f a
ll h
an
dse
ts
Shares of smarpthone operating systems
Others
iOS
Android
Symbian^3, Anna, Belle
Symbian 1.-5. ed.
Nokia Series 40 and Symbian diffusion: Substitution between OS generations
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Sh
are
of
all
ha
nd
sets
Nokia Series 40 diffusion
Series 40, 1.-2. ed.
Series 40, 3. ed.
Series 40, 5. ed.
Series 40, 6. ed.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Sh
are
of
all
ha
nd
sets
Symbian diffusion
S80 (+90,UIQ)
S60 1.-2. ed.
S60 3.ed
S60 5. ed.
^3 / Anna / Belle
Slide 10
• Many features close
to saturation
– Low-end
population limits
penetration
– Saturation level
for FM radio?
• Some features
spreading fast
– Inclusion to mid-
range?
Diffusion of radio interfaces stable
N = 4-6.5 Millions Upper and lower error margins presented with
Slide 11
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Penetration of handset features in Finland 2005-2011 (1)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
B/W (MSTN)
CSTN TFT AMOLED / SUPER
AMOLED
Other DISP. TYPE
3x4 KEY QWERTY TOUCH
Penetration of handset features in Finland 2005-2011 (2)
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
• Diffusion of TFT slowed down
– Competition between high-end TFT and AMOLED displays
• Touch screen diffusing fast
– One of the fastest growing features ever
– Also in comparison to QWERTY
Display technologies and input
methods
Slide 12
N = 4-6.5 Millions
3x4 KEY = numeric keypad
QWERTY = QWERTY keyboard
TOUCH = Touch screen
• Mobile handset sales data from GfK – Used to calculate the
share of features in sales
• Unit replacement parameters calculated using sales and installed base data
• Forecast made for share of features in future sales
• Model calculates the share of features in base
Forecasting feature diffusion: Logic Combination of handset sales and installed base data
Slide 13
• Forecasts of feature shares in sales based on expert opinion
• Features diffuse in bundles – Certain features found
together in feature phones, other features in smartphones
• Diffusion of features relatively slow – WCDMA will reach
80% penetration in three years, WLAN in four
Forecasting feature diffusion: First results
Slide 14
Conclusions
• Typical handset manufactured by Nokia (81%)
– Other manufacturers begun to gain market share
• Smartphones (33%) and advanced features spread fast
– With increasing share of handsets possible to consume
advanced services & content
– Touch screen diffusing fast, substituting numeric keypad
• Forecasts predict stable growth of key features
Slide 15
Further information
• Contact: – Antti Riikonen, researcher
– Timo Smura, project manager – firstname.lastname (at) aalto.fi
• MoMIE project: – Modeling of Mobile Internet Ecosystem – http://momie.comnet.aalto.fi/
Slide 16