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Mobile Strategy Head of Global Coordination - Ragnar H. Korsæth

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Page 1: Mobile Strategy - Telenor · Mobile Strategy Head of Global ... Network and Service Rollout Selective Expansion Control or Exit Licence ... and KPI definitions as 2004-2006. EBITDA

Mobile StrategyHead of Global Coordination - Ragnar H. Korsæth

Page 2: Mobile Strategy - Telenor · Mobile Strategy Head of Global ... Network and Service Rollout Selective Expansion Control or Exit Licence ... and KPI definitions as 2004-2006. EBITDA

Continued Growth in Revenues and Cash Flow

• Strengthen local position and competitiveness

• Targeting the world’s next billion mobile subscribers

• Selective international expansion

Page 3: Mobile Strategy - Telenor · Mobile Strategy Head of Global ... Network and Service Rollout Selective Expansion Control or Exit Licence ... and KPI definitions as 2004-2006. EBITDA

Internationalisation of Telenor

200520001995

Expansion

Strategy

Value CreationStrategy

Global Coordination

Active Ownership

Network and Service Rollout

Selective Expansion

Control or Exit

Licence Hunting

Page 4: Mobile Strategy - Telenor · Mobile Strategy Head of Global ... Network and Service Rollout Selective Expansion Control or Exit Licence ... and KPI definitions as 2004-2006. EBITDA

GrameenPhone Performance

1 099

913

674

516

2003 2004 2005 Q1 2006

ARPU

244

196

233227

2,62,9

3,8

4,8

2003 2004 2005 Q1 2006

MoU/APPM

1 141

2 388

5 542

6 427

62 % 62 % 62 %

62 %

2003 2004 2005 Q1 06

Subscriptions/Market share

12 695

19 302

29 524

65 % 60 %50 %

2003 2004 2005

8 269

11 592

14 667

3 545

11 636

20 890

2003 2004 2005

EBITDA CAPEX

Revenues/EBITDA% EBITDA and CAPEX

All figures according to local currency. 2003-figures are not according to same accounting principles and KPI definitions as 2004-2006.EBITDA and CAPEX adjusted for change in accounting treatment of lease in 2005

Page 5: Mobile Strategy - Telenor · Mobile Strategy Head of Global ... Network and Service Rollout Selective Expansion Control or Exit Licence ... and KPI definitions as 2004-2006. EBITDA

Kyivstar Performance

68 67

49

40

2003 2004 2005 Q1 2006

83

110

98

56

0,40,5

0,8

1,2

2003 2004 2005 Q1 2006

3 037

6 252

13 92514 965

45 % 46 % 45 %

47 %

2003 2004 2005 Q1 06

2 001

3 341

5 769

60 % 61 % 56 %

2003 2004 2005

1 195

2 044

3 212

744

2 065

2 896

2003 2004 2005

EBITDA CAPEX

ARPU MoU/APPMSubscriptions/Market share

Revenues/EBITDA% EBITDA and CAPEX

All figures according to local currency. 2003-figures are not according to same accounting principles and KPI definitions as 2004-2006

Page 6: Mobile Strategy - Telenor · Mobile Strategy Head of Global ... Network and Service Rollout Selective Expansion Control or Exit Licence ... and KPI definitions as 2004-2006. EBITDA

DiGi Performance

62 60 5854

2003 2004 2005 Q1 2006

166 162169175

0,330,340,360,36

2003 2004 2005 Q1 2006

2 205

3 239

4 7955 086

20 % 22 %25 % 25 %

2003 2004 2005 Q1 06

1 714

2 231

2 899

41 %44 % 43 %

2003 2004 2005

699

979

1 259

563 520688

2003 2004 2005

EBITDA CAPEX

ARPU MoU/APPMSubscriptions/Market share

Revenues/EBITDA% EBITDA and CAPEX

All figures according to local currency. 2003-figures are not according to same accounting principles and KPI definitions as 2004-2006

Page 7: Mobile Strategy - Telenor · Mobile Strategy Head of Global ... Network and Service Rollout Selective Expansion Control or Exit Licence ... and KPI definitions as 2004-2006. EBITDA

Mobile Norway Performance

323 323 309 305

2003 2004 2005 Q1 2006

184186

184

176

1,61,71,81,8

2003 2004 2005 Q1 2006

2 364

2 6452 731 2 722

57 % 56 % 56 % 56 %

2003 2004 2005 Q1 06

10 90911 730

12 243

39 % 37 % 37 %

2003 2004 2005

4 262 4 305 4 471

500973 1 218

2003 2004 2005

EBITDA CAPEX

ARPU MoU/APPMSubscriptions/Market share

Revenues/EBITDA% EBITDA and CAPEX

All figures according to local currency. 2003-figures are not according to same accounting principles and KPI definitions as 2004-2006

Page 8: Mobile Strategy - Telenor · Mobile Strategy Head of Global ... Network and Service Rollout Selective Expansion Control or Exit Licence ... and KPI definitions as 2004-2006. EBITDA

Continued Growth in Revenues and Cash Flow

• Strengthen local position and competitiveness

• Targeting the world’s next billion mobile subscribers

• Selective international expansion

Page 9: Mobile Strategy - Telenor · Mobile Strategy Head of Global ... Network and Service Rollout Selective Expansion Control or Exit Licence ... and KPI definitions as 2004-2006. EBITDA

Telenor’s Operating Model

Centralisation & Integration

Stand-alone Operations

Group standards Best practice sharing

Global Coordination

Market dynamics and responsiveness is local• Operational decision making• Control of value chain• Production, marketing and service delivery

Page 10: Mobile Strategy - Telenor · Mobile Strategy Head of Global ... Network and Service Rollout Selective Expansion Control or Exit Licence ... and KPI definitions as 2004-2006. EBITDA

Global Service Innovation

• Coordinated sharing of proven concepts

• Virtual service market place

• Common service delivery platform

• Innovation Centre in Malaysia

Page 11: Mobile Strategy - Telenor · Mobile Strategy Head of Global ... Network and Service Rollout Selective Expansion Control or Exit Licence ... and KPI definitions as 2004-2006. EBITDA

Investment Optimisation

• Joint group procurement processes

• Aligning vendors on future low ARPU challenges

• Early adaptation of new technology

• Decreasing CAPEX per minute

0

20

40

60

80

100

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Telecom Equipment Prices

Network Efficiency (Erlang per TRX)

2,4

3

3,8

4,55

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Page 12: Mobile Strategy - Telenor · Mobile Strategy Head of Global ... Network and Service Rollout Selective Expansion Control or Exit Licence ... and KPI definitions as 2004-2006. EBITDA

Continued Growth in Revenues and Cash Flow

• Strengthen local position and competitiveness

• Targeting the world’s next billion mobile subscribers

• Selective international expansion

Page 13: Mobile Strategy - Telenor · Mobile Strategy Head of Global ... Network and Service Rollout Selective Expansion Control or Exit Licence ... and KPI definitions as 2004-2006. EBITDA

Strong Mobile Growth Potential

Source: Telenor estimates

• Current population footprint of 650 million

• Expect the total market to grow with

~130 million subscriptions by 2008

60

14

1215

18 20H

ungary

Malaysia

Thailand

Ukraine

Bangladesh

Pakistan

Russia

Expected Subscription Growthby 2008 (million)

Page 14: Mobile Strategy - Telenor · Mobile Strategy Head of Global ... Network and Service Rollout Selective Expansion Control or Exit Licence ... and KPI definitions as 2004-2006. EBITDA

The Next Billion Challenge

The first billion subscriptions

More than USD 25 ARPU

The next billion subscriptions

Less than USD 2 ARPU

Page 15: Mobile Strategy - Telenor · Mobile Strategy Head of Global ... Network and Service Rollout Selective Expansion Control or Exit Licence ... and KPI definitions as 2004-2006. EBITDA

How to Make Money on

USD 2 ARPU

Page 16: Mobile Strategy - Telenor · Mobile Strategy Head of Global ... Network and Service Rollout Selective Expansion Control or Exit Licence ... and KPI definitions as 2004-2006. EBITDA

No Subscriber Acquisition

Costs

Page 17: Mobile Strategy - Telenor · Mobile Strategy Head of Global ... Network and Service Rollout Selective Expansion Control or Exit Licence ... and KPI definitions as 2004-2006. EBITDA

No Customer Support

Page 18: Mobile Strategy - Telenor · Mobile Strategy Head of Global ... Network and Service Rollout Selective Expansion Control or Exit Licence ... and KPI definitions as 2004-2006. EBITDA

Monitor the Peak

Hour00:00

02:00

04:00

06:00

08:00

10:00

12:00

14:00

16:00

18:00

20:00

22:00Example Hourly Traffic Profile

(Traffic minutes per hour)

Page 19: Mobile Strategy - Telenor · Mobile Strategy Head of Global ... Network and Service Rollout Selective Expansion Control or Exit Licence ... and KPI definitions as 2004-2006. EBITDA

Extremely efficient

distribution

Page 20: Mobile Strategy - Telenor · Mobile Strategy Head of Global ... Network and Service Rollout Selective Expansion Control or Exit Licence ... and KPI definitions as 2004-2006. EBITDA

From Scratch Cards to E-Refill

Page 21: Mobile Strategy - Telenor · Mobile Strategy Head of Global ... Network and Service Rollout Selective Expansion Control or Exit Licence ... and KPI definitions as 2004-2006. EBITDA

Vendor Revenue Share Model

Page 22: Mobile Strategy - Telenor · Mobile Strategy Head of Global ... Network and Service Rollout Selective Expansion Control or Exit Licence ... and KPI definitions as 2004-2006. EBITDA

PredicableRegulatory

Regime

Page 23: Mobile Strategy - Telenor · Mobile Strategy Head of Global ... Network and Service Rollout Selective Expansion Control or Exit Licence ... and KPI definitions as 2004-2006. EBITDA

Continued Growth in Revenues and Cash Flow

• Strengthen local position and competitiveness

• Targeting the world’s next billion mobile subscribers

• Selective international expansion

Page 24: Mobile Strategy - Telenor · Mobile Strategy Head of Global ... Network and Service Rollout Selective Expansion Control or Exit Licence ... and KPI definitions as 2004-2006. EBITDA

Selective Expansion Criterias

• Market size and penetration growth

• Political stability

• Regulatory environment

• Cultural fit

• Strong business case

Page 25: Mobile Strategy - Telenor · Mobile Strategy Head of Global ... Network and Service Rollout Selective Expansion Control or Exit Licence ... and KPI definitions as 2004-2006. EBITDA

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

2003 2004 2005

Mobinil Vodafone

Egypt Opportunity

Facts• Population 2005 (millions) : 75• Penetration 2005 : 17%• GDP/pop 2005 (USD) : 1380• GDP growth : 5%

Strategic Rationale• The MENA region has untapped potential• Low penetration• Large and fast growing market• Utilize Telenor’s greenfield expertise

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

2003 2004 2005

Mobinil Vodafone

Subscriber development (000)

Market share (%)

Page 26: Mobile Strategy - Telenor · Mobile Strategy Head of Global ... Network and Service Rollout Selective Expansion Control or Exit Licence ... and KPI definitions as 2004-2006. EBITDA

Vietnam Opportunity

Facts• Population 2005 (millions) : 84• Penetration 2005 : 10%• GDP/pop 2005 (USD) : 616• GDP growth : 8%

Strategic Rationale• Within a core region• Low penetration• Large and fast growing market

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2003 2004 2005

Vinaphone Mobifone Viettel S-fone

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

2003 2004 2005

Vinaphone Mobifone Viettel S-fone

Subscriber development (000)

Market share (%)

Page 27: Mobile Strategy - Telenor · Mobile Strategy Head of Global ... Network and Service Rollout Selective Expansion Control or Exit Licence ... and KPI definitions as 2004-2006. EBITDA

Serbia Opportunity – Mobtel/Mobi63

Facts• Population 2005 (millions)* : 7.5• Penetration 2005 : 65%• GDP/pop 2005 (USD) : 2.500• GDP growth (2006-2007) : 5%

* Excluding Montenegro and Kosovo

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

2003 2004 2005

Mobte l/Mobi63 M TS (Te lekoM Srbija)

0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

100 %

2003 2004 2005

Mobtel/Mobi63 MTS (Telekom Srbija)

Strategic Rationale• Within a core region• Synergies with Promonte and Pannon

Subscriber development (000)

Market share (%)

Page 28: Mobile Strategy - Telenor · Mobile Strategy Head of Global ... Network and Service Rollout Selective Expansion Control or Exit Licence ... and KPI definitions as 2004-2006. EBITDA

Concluding Remarks

• Strengthen local position and competitiveness

• Targeting the world’s next billion mobile subscribers

• Selective international expansion

Continued profitable growth