mobile strategy - telenor · mobile strategy head of global ... network and service rollout...
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Mobile StrategyHead of Global Coordination - Ragnar H. Korsæth
Continued Growth in Revenues and Cash Flow
• Strengthen local position and competitiveness
• Targeting the world’s next billion mobile subscribers
• Selective international expansion
Internationalisation of Telenor
200520001995
Expansion
Strategy
Value CreationStrategy
Global Coordination
Active Ownership
Network and Service Rollout
Selective Expansion
Control or Exit
Licence Hunting
GrameenPhone Performance
1 099
913
674
516
2003 2004 2005 Q1 2006
ARPU
244
196
233227
2,62,9
3,8
4,8
2003 2004 2005 Q1 2006
MoU/APPM
1 141
2 388
5 542
6 427
62 % 62 % 62 %
62 %
2003 2004 2005 Q1 06
Subscriptions/Market share
12 695
19 302
29 524
65 % 60 %50 %
2003 2004 2005
8 269
11 592
14 667
3 545
11 636
20 890
2003 2004 2005
EBITDA CAPEX
Revenues/EBITDA% EBITDA and CAPEX
All figures according to local currency. 2003-figures are not according to same accounting principles and KPI definitions as 2004-2006.EBITDA and CAPEX adjusted for change in accounting treatment of lease in 2005
Kyivstar Performance
68 67
49
40
2003 2004 2005 Q1 2006
83
110
98
56
0,40,5
0,8
1,2
2003 2004 2005 Q1 2006
3 037
6 252
13 92514 965
45 % 46 % 45 %
47 %
2003 2004 2005 Q1 06
2 001
3 341
5 769
60 % 61 % 56 %
2003 2004 2005
1 195
2 044
3 212
744
2 065
2 896
2003 2004 2005
EBITDA CAPEX
ARPU MoU/APPMSubscriptions/Market share
Revenues/EBITDA% EBITDA and CAPEX
All figures according to local currency. 2003-figures are not according to same accounting principles and KPI definitions as 2004-2006
DiGi Performance
62 60 5854
2003 2004 2005 Q1 2006
166 162169175
0,330,340,360,36
2003 2004 2005 Q1 2006
2 205
3 239
4 7955 086
20 % 22 %25 % 25 %
2003 2004 2005 Q1 06
1 714
2 231
2 899
41 %44 % 43 %
2003 2004 2005
699
979
1 259
563 520688
2003 2004 2005
EBITDA CAPEX
ARPU MoU/APPMSubscriptions/Market share
Revenues/EBITDA% EBITDA and CAPEX
All figures according to local currency. 2003-figures are not according to same accounting principles and KPI definitions as 2004-2006
Mobile Norway Performance
323 323 309 305
2003 2004 2005 Q1 2006
184186
184
176
1,61,71,81,8
2003 2004 2005 Q1 2006
2 364
2 6452 731 2 722
57 % 56 % 56 % 56 %
2003 2004 2005 Q1 06
10 90911 730
12 243
39 % 37 % 37 %
2003 2004 2005
4 262 4 305 4 471
500973 1 218
2003 2004 2005
EBITDA CAPEX
ARPU MoU/APPMSubscriptions/Market share
Revenues/EBITDA% EBITDA and CAPEX
All figures according to local currency. 2003-figures are not according to same accounting principles and KPI definitions as 2004-2006
Continued Growth in Revenues and Cash Flow
• Strengthen local position and competitiveness
• Targeting the world’s next billion mobile subscribers
• Selective international expansion
Telenor’s Operating Model
Centralisation & Integration
Stand-alone Operations
Group standards Best practice sharing
Global Coordination
Market dynamics and responsiveness is local• Operational decision making• Control of value chain• Production, marketing and service delivery
Global Service Innovation
• Coordinated sharing of proven concepts
• Virtual service market place
• Common service delivery platform
• Innovation Centre in Malaysia
Investment Optimisation
• Joint group procurement processes
• Aligning vendors on future low ARPU challenges
• Early adaptation of new technology
• Decreasing CAPEX per minute
0
20
40
60
80
100
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Telecom Equipment Prices
Network Efficiency (Erlang per TRX)
2,4
3
3,8
4,55
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Continued Growth in Revenues and Cash Flow
• Strengthen local position and competitiveness
• Targeting the world’s next billion mobile subscribers
• Selective international expansion
Strong Mobile Growth Potential
Source: Telenor estimates
• Current population footprint of 650 million
• Expect the total market to grow with
~130 million subscriptions by 2008
60
14
1215
18 20H
ungary
Malaysia
Thailand
Ukraine
Bangladesh
Pakistan
Russia
Expected Subscription Growthby 2008 (million)
The Next Billion Challenge
The first billion subscriptions
More than USD 25 ARPU
The next billion subscriptions
Less than USD 2 ARPU
How to Make Money on
USD 2 ARPU
No Subscriber Acquisition
Costs
No Customer Support
Monitor the Peak
Hour00:00
02:00
04:00
06:00
08:00
10:00
12:00
14:00
16:00
18:00
20:00
22:00Example Hourly Traffic Profile
(Traffic minutes per hour)
Extremely efficient
distribution
From Scratch Cards to E-Refill
Vendor Revenue Share Model
PredicableRegulatory
Regime
Continued Growth in Revenues and Cash Flow
• Strengthen local position and competitiveness
• Targeting the world’s next billion mobile subscribers
• Selective international expansion
Selective Expansion Criterias
• Market size and penetration growth
• Political stability
• Regulatory environment
• Cultural fit
• Strong business case
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2003 2004 2005
Mobinil Vodafone
Egypt Opportunity
Facts• Population 2005 (millions) : 75• Penetration 2005 : 17%• GDP/pop 2005 (USD) : 1380• GDP growth : 5%
Strategic Rationale• The MENA region has untapped potential• Low penetration• Large and fast growing market• Utilize Telenor’s greenfield expertise
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
90 %
100 %
2003 2004 2005
Mobinil Vodafone
Subscriber development (000)
Market share (%)
Vietnam Opportunity
Facts• Population 2005 (millions) : 84• Penetration 2005 : 10%• GDP/pop 2005 (USD) : 616• GDP growth : 8%
Strategic Rationale• Within a core region• Low penetration• Large and fast growing market
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2003 2004 2005
Vinaphone Mobifone Viettel S-fone
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
90 %
100 %
2003 2004 2005
Vinaphone Mobifone Viettel S-fone
Subscriber development (000)
Market share (%)
Serbia Opportunity – Mobtel/Mobi63
Facts• Population 2005 (millions)* : 7.5• Penetration 2005 : 65%• GDP/pop 2005 (USD) : 2.500• GDP growth (2006-2007) : 5%
* Excluding Montenegro and Kosovo
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2003 2004 2005
Mobte l/Mobi63 M TS (Te lekoM Srbija)
0 %
10 %
20 %
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
90 %
100 %
2003 2004 2005
Mobtel/Mobi63 MTS (Telekom Srbija)
Strategic Rationale• Within a core region• Synergies with Promonte and Pannon
Subscriber development (000)
Market share (%)
Concluding Remarks
• Strengthen local position and competitiveness
• Targeting the world’s next billion mobile subscribers
• Selective international expansion
Continued profitable growth