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Lucent Technologies – ProprietaryUse pursuant to company instruction1 rsgJun06

[email protected]+1 905 943 5530

Ray Gilbert

Mobility reaching the “Red Zone”:Trends in Cellular data and Convergence

mailto:[email protected]


S I M S I M I n t e r n a t i o n a l


Partner Program

Lucent a SIM Partner since Sept ‘03Lucent a SIM – APC member since spring ‘05Participant >15 CIO Forums – Philadelphia, Chicago, Charlotte, Cleveland, Raleigh, Orlando . . .

History: Chapter events and related activities– NJ Chapter golf – Raleigh Chapter charity golf – NJ Monthly Chapter Mtg & 3G demos (with various carriers)– Memphis annual Chapter conference & seminar – SIMposium 2004 and 2005– NYC, Atlanta, Detroit, Dallas, Seattle chapter events

SIM-NYC Chapter RLF participation (2005)Working to establish a Toronto Chapter


Lucent TechnologiesWe make the things that make communications work

Global Service Providers(Examples)

Ente

rpris

e C

usto

mer

s

$9B30K employees

+$17B

56K employees


IT Dialogues & Roadmaps

Cellular data trials

CIO cost & ROI models

Becoming “3G enabled”

Bell Labs Advanced Tech

Benchmarking…other Practices

IT Dialogues & Roadmaps

Cellular data trials

CIO cost & ROI models

Becoming “3G enabled”

Bell Labs Advanced Tech

Benchmarking…other Practices

Key Activities…

Exchanging views with >4000 CIO-IT leadersin >75 forums and >80 1-on-1 CIO briefings

Lucent-IT Enterprise Collaboration

CIOExpenditures

(focus the $’s)

Service Provider Goals

ITExpenditures

(focus the $’s)

Supplier/Provider Goals

CIO Enterprise

SkillsEnterprise

Skills

CustomerShowcasesCustomer

Showcases


SIM Seattle: Who are you?Consulting

(7)Constn/Bdg/Equip(4)

Healthcare(7)

Finance/Insurance(6)

Netwk Prod/Services(9)

Education/Training(5)

Local Govt/Govt Servs(9)

Hwre/Swre/Systems(5)

Career/Resource(2)

Transport/Logistics(3)

Retail/Apparel/Durables(3)

Semi-Cond Mfg Prod(5)

Ent/Media/Content(6)

Pro/Svs/Other(9)

Approx80


Topics: Business impacts

Context for IT Infrastructure

Convergence overview and trends

Cellular and wireless data

What can this discussion share to be most effective?


Achieving effective utilizationAdoption thru deployment that delivers business benefits . . .

Crafting success . . .

IEEE Transactions on Engineering ManagementExamining the Utilization of Information Technology:Cognitive and Experimental Factors of Post-Adoption BehaviorVol 53, August 2005

IEEE Transactions on Engineering ManagementExamining the Utilization of Information Technology:Cognitive and Experimental Factors of Post-Adoption BehaviorVol 53, August 2005

Ultimate Goal


Riding the Wave*- New Technologies*Ref: APC Executive briefing on Mobile Technology

PlaythingPlaything

Evolution & stages

InfrastructuresApplications Business transact’nsContent services

InfrastructuresApplications Business transact’nsContent services

Carrier Networks

Advanced Practices Council



SubstitutionEnhancementTransformationTransparency

Applications Content servicesBusiness transact’ns


Trends: Wireless technologiesWhat works, where we work . . . in our neighborhoods ?

W-WANCellular Data

EVDO/1XRTTHSPDA/UMTS/EDGE

W-WANCellular Data

EVDO/1XRTTHSPDA/UMTS/EDGE

W-PANBluetooth

W-LANWiFi/802.11

W-WANSatellite


August 1995 . . . some mobility history . . .

Personal communicationsVoice and dataFear of wireless “blips” ??New “packet solutions”Speeds up to 9.6kbsModem for $300 - $800$49 per month


A new world of combinations . . .New networks . . . new competition . . . new options . . !!


And some recent telecom press . . .

Changes ? Major

Disruptive

Options . . .


The basic “red face” testsService provider coverage/availability & pricingSecurity, standards & solutionsWhere does the convergence solution fit ?Benefits, impacts & initial business cases/applications

Steps to success: Mobility example

Managing end-user and line-of-business expectationsTechnology evolution, obsolescence and convergenceStrategies for end user & CPE devices (laptop, PDA, phone)Application integration, middleware, connectionware etc ??Interworking with legacy & wireless (WiFi, billing, bundles .)Strategic learning: new capabilities & new applications ? ?

Then . . . for successful adoption


Competition & trends . . . in the news

Lucent Technologies – ProprietaryUse pursuant to company instruction15 rsgJun06Lucent Technologies – Proprietary

Use pursuant to company instruction15 rsgFeb06

Evolution, trends and IT expectations

Convergence and cellular data


WINMEC – UCLA . . . from March 2005

Advanced Practices Council

Carrier Networks

InfrastructuresApplications Content servicesBusiness transact’ns

InfrastructuresApplications Content servicesBusiness transact’ns

2005


Cellular Data VoIP

Next-Gen OpticalBroadband Access

Local Loop Unbundling VoIP

Number PortabilityPrivatization

Local Loop Unbundling VoIP

Number PortabilityPrivatization

New PlayersService Bundling

Consolidation

Convergence: Enterprise drivers

CompetitionNew Technology Regulations

Residential/Consumer Enterprise/ProfessionalProsumer


IMS – IP Multimedia SubsystemIMS future architecture concept . . .

Voice

Data

Video

CPE

DirectoryServicesCall

Centers

ContentGuide

Private lines

FrameSonet

Messaging

ATM

WiFiMessagingCall

Centers

RemoteOffice

Conferencing

Desk TopServices IMS (H/ware & S/Ware Layer)

Broadband Connections

End Users/CPE

Internet Protocol (IP)

Dire

ctor

ies/

LBS

Ente

rtai

nmen

t

Man

aged

/oth

er S

vs

Inte

rnet

Ser

vice

s

Voic

e/D

ata-

Wire

less

Voic

e/D

ata-

Wire

line


Some early convergence optionsA few examples (now –12 months)

Mobile phone* can operate off cellular RF &/or WiFi . . &/or Bluetooth . . .

Mobile phone can be served by cellular network &/or by IP-PBX

Business continuity – EVDO diverse & redundant backhaul

* Phone or other wireless appliances (e.g. data modem , PDA)

Wireline

Data/Voice



Perspectives from CIO-IT & business peers

Cellular data with IT communities


Enterprise and consumer trends

Adapted fm: J Henderson* & N KulatilakaBoston University

Mobile data

Consumer

Enterprise

2G 3G

Belowdial

Cellular“DSL”

B3G

Cellular“T1”

Convergence

Consumer

Enterprise

Devices Content

Network Appl’ns


Cellular data: Technology evolution

CDMA

Voice

GSM

1st WaveDial+

replacement

EDGE

CDMA20001X

CDMA2000EV-DO

2nd WaveCellular“DSL”

3rd

CellularT1

VOIP+CellularWiFi+VOIP

World-Phones

WiFi+Cellular

Apps/TelematicsWorld-Modems

and Convergence

VOIP+CellularWiFi+VOIP

World-Phones

WiFi+Cellular

Apps/TelematicsWorld-Modems

and Convergence

UMTS/HSDPA(W-CDMA)


Cost Impacts

Primary Influencers

Low

High

Business LeadersCIO Leaders

Standard for Network Data

Support

# Interfaces

# Application Instances

# Server Platform

Standards

Desktop Images

# Devices per user

Primary Factors & Sensitivities

# Geographic Regions

# Employees

# Process Variations

# Business Solutions

Business Response Time Expectation

Voice ServicesStandards # Business

Locations

Mobility impacting IT cost drivers

Source: Lucent CIO Total Cost Study



The business and end user impacts



SIM Seattle: Who are you?Consulting

(7)Constn/Bdg/Equip(4)

Healthcare(7)

Finance/Insurance(6)

Netwk Prod/Services(9)

Education/Training(5)

Local Govt/Govt Servs(9)

Hwre/Swre/Systems(5)

Career/Resource(2)

Transport/Logistics(3)

Retail/Apparel/Durables(3)

Semi-Cond Mfg Prod(5)

Ent/Media/Content(6)

Pro/Svs/Other(9)

Approx80


Lucent Worldwide Services (LWS)Professional & field services

Reduced support = 2.0 hours/wk/user

Direct cost reduction = $20/wk/user

Efficiency Gains = 4 hours/wk/ user

Access cost saving & displacements

Less than a 1 year payback,and any single item offsets the monthly charges

plus . . Pushing data is more valuable than any of the above savings !!

Study: 75 Installers for 4 months


NJ Visiting Nurses: Key pilot results

100% of pilot participants recommend cellular data

~90% say it improves work satisfaction

~90% of back office staff report communication easier

~80% note that communications more accurate

~85% higher patient record synch frequency

~60% noted cellular data reduces disruptions

Saved approximately1 hour/day with synch/e-mail


Third Party Logistics: 3PL SuppliersManagement Science Vol. 50, No. 8

Most common services– Transport mgt– EDI facilitation– Cross docking– Inventory control– Mode selection– Mode negotiation – Mode selection & mgt– Consolidation– Routing & scheduling– Info systems support

+ 42 others . . .

Industries supported– Food & beverage 15%– Automotive 12%– Food wholesale 10%– Electronic equip 9%– Health/personal care 8%– Industrial chemicals 7%– Consumer chemicals 6%– Clothing & textiles 5%– Hardware 5%– Paper products 5%

Other 17%

Study topic: Does media richness matter ?( 65 firms, 250K employees, $750M in total revenue )

Benefits: Loyalty, satisfaction, & relational performance


Insurance examples . . .

Property-casualtyLife, accident and healthRetirement productsAuto and personal insuranceCommercial autoMergers & acquisitionsReinsuranceInternet and cyber-risk Political, economic risk advisoryManagement servicesClaim and cost management. . . others

Evacuation & security SvcsMortgage insuranceMutual fund & investments3rd party asset managementDirect equity investmentsEmerging market financesGlobal employee benefitsConsumer financePremium financingAircraft leasingTrading & market making. . . others



Observations and conclusions



Enterprise access options End users migrate to new cellular data options

LocalIP-Dial

LocalDial

1-800Dial

Cable

DSLWiFi

Cellular Data

EVDO

1X

LocalIP -Dial

LocalDial

1-800Dial

Cable

DSLWiFi

EDGE

Cellular“DSL”

Dialreplacement

Cellular Data

1XEdge

HSDPAEVDO

UMTS

Broadband

Dial-up

New business options


Role 1st … then technology/network

Low

High

Mobility

Fixed Device

Mobile DeviceFixed Device

High

Tech Worker

Appliancepower

Low

HighTech Worker

Office WorkerOffice Worker

Plant WorkerPlant Worker

Road WarriorRoad Warrior

GlobalCollaborator

GlobalCollaborator

MobileOffice Worker

MobileOffice Worker

Ref: IT Benchmarking Forum discussions

Mobile Device

Low Low


Implement

Operate Readiness

Plan

Business Goals

Conclusions: Driving thru the “Red Zone” . . .

How to discover new ideas for enterprises?

How to sustain a flow of new services for

business processes?

How to sustain a flow of new services for

business processes?

How to effectively move from concept to

adoption?

How to effectively move from concept to

adoption?


Conclusions: Crafting formulae for successEnsuring: Adoption, utilization and capturing benefits . . .

Info system adoption experience . . .

Capability reviewsFormal evaluationsAssessment criteriaTip sheets

Training & pilotsDiverse participationBusiness process reviews

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