mobility systems for passengers and freight systems for passengers and freight 4/5 list of members...

Strategic Roadmap

Mobility systems for passengers and freight

French Environment &Energy Management Agency


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Preamble ............................................................................................................................................................................................4

1 Urban mobility ...........................................................................................................................................................................6

2 Issues and objectives ..............................................................................................................................................................8

3 General context.....................................................................................................................................................................12

4 Passenger mobility ................................................................................................................................................................15

5 Freight mobility ......................................................................................................................................................................30

6 Research priorities for passenger and freight mobility .................................................................................40

7 Research demonstrator and experimentation needs ....................................................................................42

Table of contents

Since 2010, the ADEME has been managing four programmes within the scope of “Future Investments”1. Groups of research experts from various industrial fields, research bodies and re-search programming and financing agencies are responsible, within the scope of collective works, for producing strategic roadmaps. These are used to launch Calls for Expressions of Interest (CEI).

The purpose of these roadmaps is to:

• Highlight the industrial, technological, environmental and societal issues faced;

• Draw up coherent, shared visions of the sociotechnical system or technologies in question;

• Identify the technological, organisational and socio-economic obstacles to be overcome;

• associate time-based objectives with the priority research themes in terms of techno-logical availability and deployment;

• prioritise the industrial research, research demonstrator, preindustrial ex-perimentation and technology test platform needs which then act as a basis for :

- drawing up CEIs; - Programming research within the ADEME and other institutions such as the French Na-

tional Research Agency (ANR), the French national strategic committee for energy re-search (Comité stratégique national sur la recherche énergie) or the French national alliance for the coordination of energy research (ANCRE).

These research and experimentation priorities originate from a coming together of the visions and obstacles, however also take into account French capacities in the fields of research and industry.

Roadmaps can also refer to exemplary experiments conducted abroad, and make recommendations in terms of industrial policy.

1. Future Investments (Les Investissements d’Avenir) continue along the path set by the Research Demonstrator Funds managed by the ADEME. The four programmes involved are: Renewable, low-carbon energy and green chemistry (1.35 billion Euros), Vehicles of the future (1 billion Euros), Smart grids (250 million Euros) and Circular Economy (250 million Euros).

Preamble


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List of members of the group of experts2

2. The group of experts received support from a technical office comprised of François Moisan, Alain Morcheoine, Eric Vidalenc and Gabriel Plassat of the ADEME.3. Fondation Internet nouvelle génération (Foundation for the Next-Generation Internet).4. Groupement des autorités responsables des transports (Group of authorities responsible for transport).5. Institut français des sciences et technologies des transports, de l’aménagement et des réseaux (French national institute for transport, planning and network science and technologies).6. Laboratoire d’économie des transports (Transport economics laboratory).7. Programme de recherche et d’innovation dans les transports terrestres (Research and innovation programme for land transport).8. Centre d’études sur les réseaux, les transports, l’urbanisme et les constructions publiques (Network, transport, town planning and public works research centre).9. Commissariat général au développement durable (General Commission for Sustainable Development).

Nature of the body Experts Member bodies

Research bodies

Thierry Marcou Fing3

Jean-Pierre Orfeuil Université Paris XII

Jean-François Doulet Institut de la ville en mouvement

Private companies

Odile Kirchner Renault

Bernard Favre Volvo

Eric Chareyron Keolis

Philippe Botte Veolia

Public bodies

Chantal Duchêne Ex-Gart4

Virginie Augereau Ifstar5

Charles Rault Let6 Lyon

Pascal Bain ANR

Patricia Revolle-Varnaison Predit7, CERTU8

Fabien Paris CGDD9

1 Urban mobilityThe evolution experienced by metropolitan spaces leads to a transformation in lifestyles and mobility practices: people are travelling more and more often, for a wider range of reasons and using an increasing number of transport modes.

Scientists and technicians are employing a new term to take into account both the complexity of mobility practices and the very strong con-nection between urban transformation and travel: urban mobility.

The systemic and integrated ap-proach applied to urban mobility simultane-ously acts on both the technological and so-cioeconomic levers. It is now entering into an operational phase. Certain concepts are known, in particular via the Research and Innovation Programme for Land Trans-port (Predit, and more particularly via oper-ating groups for mobility in urban regions and for transport policies) and the French national research agency (ANR). Concrete actions are being born, both in terms of research via a “science of uses” (outlined below) and demon-strators or experiments.

Recently, several major national ac-tions have been undertaken, including:

• the study conducted by the French Intermin-isterial Economic Change, Forward-Planning and Forecasting Unit10 (Pipame) on the changes taking place in the motor industry, focused on future developments of the in-dustrial fabric and motor uses. One decision-aid tool has been created, amongst other items;

• the study conducted by the Strategic analy-sis centre11 (Centre d’analyse stratégique) on new mobility means and new vehicle uses aiming at proposing concrete actions for developing more robust and more efficient mobility systems;

• the creation of a platform for the motor industry (PFA) in April 2009, which aims at structuring and creating a synergy between industrial stakeholders so as to share com-mon visions for future developments. Mem-bers of the PFA took part in the works con-ducted by the Pipame and will use the results thereof;

• the competitive clusters, in particular Mov’eo, LUTB12 and Systematic, which have drawn up a 2015-2030 vision for mobility in view of launching demonstrators in several identified regions. The competitive cluster LUTB has spent many years working on understand-ing and promoting the systemic approach to urban mobility. They have undertaken ac-tions uniting industrialists involved in vehicle development with the users, customers and suppliers of the mobility chain, infrastructures, organisations, decision processes, technical, economic and social disciplines, physical and digital technologies and stakeholder’s “inter-actions”, etc.;

10. By coordinating the actions of the ministerial departments, the Pipame aims to shed light on the developments that will occur in the next 5 to 10 years with regard to the main stakeholders and economic sectors currently experiencing change.11. The Strategic analysis centre is directly attached to the Prime Minister. It aims to assist the government in defining and implementing its strategic orienta-tions in economic, social, environmental or cultural matters.12. Lyon Urban Truck and Bus.

Towards a science of uses

Reasoning in terms of mobility within the scope of a function-based econ-omy, based on the use of transport means as means, rather than within the scope of an object-based econo-my, focused on the vehicles, enables us to understand and untie the symbiotic links uniting the motor industry, the city, petrol and our lifestyles. Major innova-tions resulting thereof make it possible to integrate a circular economy into the design and manufacture of vehicles. This also promotes improved vehicle use and the creation of a new field of science: the science of uses.


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• the Brittany region, via the Chamber of Com-merce and Industry, has been committed to a systemic reflection process for several months, entitled the “Brittany green transport plan” (“Plan véhicule vert breton”) inspired by the works of the Pipame, to respond to the crisis taking place in the “luxury” motor industry in this region. The systemic approach, including national and local industrialists, ve-hicle users and public authorities, particularly appears to enable an economic sector to re-invent itself by offering vehicle specifications meeting user expectations (for professional and private users) and adapted to suit the local and/or global skills and restrictions. This approach also creates a strong anchor point in this region, making the delocalisation of production tools almost impossible.

These actions show an increase in aware-ness of the transformations tak-ing place in the transport sector in France, in addition to the development of uses, and the limits of the current system in relation to future restrictions. All in-dustrial stakeholders and public authorities are now forming a dynamic enabling structuring actions to be undertaken. This roadmap has a role to play in this. It aims at preparing for the launch of a call for expressions of interest ena-bling the innovation and testing of new forms of mobility in our regions, both for passenger travel and freight.

2 Issues and objectivesThis roadmap more particularly studies the daily means of mobility for pas-sengers in a living or working space, which does not necessarily correspond to the administrative regional division or that of the transport organisation authorities (outlined below). Special travel occasions (business trips, tourism, occasional travel) will not be covered in detail, however will be integrated into the tools designed to improve daily mobility.

For freight, long-distance transport using different modes of transport will not be studied.

However, the customer/freight encounter (final delivery) and the upstream intermodal transfer (shift from one vehicle to another, from one mode of transport to another) are included in this roadmap. Although involving currently differ-ent economic models and stakeholders, freight and passenger mobility is tackled in a joint man-ner taking into account the numerous common objectives, methodological parallel with regard to the systemic approach and uniqueness of the space that must be shared in a better manner (roads, infrastructures) according to the time of year.

The challenges and objectives13 to be reached and overcome by the transport sector are summarised below:• complying with the factor 4 objective for

2050, by using 20% renewable energy in 2020, 10% of which originating from biofuel;

• complying with the European greenhouse gas (GHG) objectives for new vehicles (130g CO2/km in 2012, 95 g CO2/km in 2020);

• complying with the objectives of the Grenel-le de l’Environnement in terms of GHG emissions for new vehicles (120 g CO2/km in 2012), in addition to the objective of 130 g CO2/km in 2020 for rolling stock;

• complying with the objectives of the Grenelle de l’Environnement with regard to the modal distribution of freight shipments with a 25% share performed by rail transport in 2025 in-stead of the 14% today;

• achieving the previous objectives while mini-mising costs per tonne of CO2 saved, with the efforts to be made being estimated as very expensive in this sector. In addition to the improvements made on combustion en-gines, particular attention shall be paid to the political, organisational or regulatory meas-ures enabling a reduction in GHG emissions at acceptable costs;

• complying with the European criteria in terms of air quality;

• guaranteeing energy diversification enabling users to better resist fluctuations in fuel prices and be less dependent on petrol, in particular by integrating 10% of biofuels by the year 2020;

Transport organisation authorities

In France, the transport organisation au-thorities (AOT) are the local authori-ties, to which the French domestic trans-port orientation law (loi d’orientation pour les transports intérieurs) dated 30 December 1982 conferred the mis-sion of organising transport. On a local scale, communities or more often a collection of communities, make up the urban transport organisation authorities. They either undertake this operation di-rectly under management from the state or delegate this to private companies.

The transition towards mobility solutions and services could lead to the creation of mobility authori-ties: authorities organising mobility in a residential area. The objective would be the simultaneous management of:• the restrictions placed on solo drivers

(passengerless drivers) to guide the latter towards a mobility means more resistant to future crises, by particularly addressing those in the most insecure situations, i.e. those who do not choose their home town, workplace, work-ing times and conditions, and who are therefore generally restricted to using individual cars,

• alternatives solutions, by developing a systemic approach to mobility and by looking at this from a citizen and con-sumer angle. This authority should be capable of offering mobility services that are more attractive than individual car transport: i.e. cheaper, faster, more eco-logical and promoting social links, etc.

13. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions by a factor of four by the year 2050 compared to 1990 levels, objective repeated in the French Orientation Programme for Energy Policy Law dated 13 July 2005.


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The contrasted development of these two key parameters therefore leads to the emer-gence of four visions for freight and passenger mobility systems for the year 2050, summarised in the table opposite.

Car sharing, carpooling

Car sharing is a system in which a so-ciety, public agency, cooperative, associa-tion or even an individual make a fleet of vehicles available to members. The user has access to a car only for the duration of his/her need. Outside of this duration, it is used by other members.

Carpooling is the organised, shared use of a vehicle by a non-professional driver and one or several third party passengers, with the intention of un-dertaking the same journey. This enables passengers to save on fuel expenses. The local authority gains from this through reduced traffic jams and pollution.

• developing socially fair mobility that at least enables “subsistence travel” for everyone (home, work, education, health, etc.), in ad-dition to efficient economic activity involving quality delivery and transport systems;

• minimising and optimising the use and occu-pancy of public space (in particular conges-tion and parking);

• optimising national and local public operating costs and investments in the field of public and private transport, freight and passenger mobility, with regard to vehicles, infrastruc-tures, energy and information and communi-cation technologies (ICT).

In order to draw up this roadmap, the group of experts has identified the following two key parameters:• interoperability of transport modes:

this characteristic relates to the notion of passing from one mode of transport to an-other without breaking bulk, in a simple, fast and stress-free manner, by simplifying pay-ment without excessive preparatory efforts. This enables us to consider conducting jour-neys, which today remain complex, and using several different vehicles and modes of trans-port consecutively to travel from a point A to a point B. Interoperability is made easier by sharing information between the differ-ent modes of transport and therefore by the availability of public data, in addition to im-proved infrastructure management;

• mobility based on ownership or access: this parameter represents very dif-ferent economic models, with consequences on vehicle use and therefore in the long term on vehicle characteristics and performance. Mobility based on ownership, can be defined as the purchase of a vehicle, the availability of which is perma-nent: this relates to an object-based econo-my. This path, which is currently the preferred method, limits the use of alternative modes as “we have a vehicle (car, scooter, etc.)”. Using telephone services as a model, by integrating the use of ICTs, travel could be imagined tak-

ing place in vehicles not owned by ourselves. Based on a function-based economy, such as for Vélib’ and Autolib’ (self-service bicycle and car rental), shared mobility uses the notion of short term rental in ad-dition to car sharing and carpooling (outlined below) and public transport. This enables users to undertake all or part of their daily travel without owning the vehicle used. This therefore leads to higher levels of intellec-tual and economic flexibility with regard to choosing a mode of transport to undertake a given journey. Freight transport has been using these two approaches for many years.

The different visions for freight and passenger mobility systems

Passenger mobility

Freight mobility

Source: Group of experts

These four visions describe in detail the possible futures in terms of vehicles, energies, infrastruc-tures, transport governance modes and eco-nomic models. However, in terms of mobility, regions have an essential role to play: they determine the possible or acceptable eco-nomic models and mobility means. The adapta-tion of these mobility systems to each region must therefore be integrated into each vision.

For freight transport, the professions and key parameters of the logistics chain (con-trolled temperature, security, tracking, type of vehicle required, type of energy, time of year, economic model) determine the speciali-sation of the tool (vehicle/energy/parking infrastructure, vehicle charging). Furthermore, freight transport today is above all character-ised as being a result of the comprehen-sive logistics system, products, organisa-tion modes and heavy infrastructures available such as ports or the rail network. Acting under restrictions, which today are essentially eco-

nomic in nature, logistics arbitrates, selects and combines the best tools (vehicle, energy, infra-structure, information) to meet the time, cost and quality objectives set.

For both passengers and freight, the mobility solutions to be explored can be described per type of region.

Among the parameters affecting this, popula-tion density must be considered:• dense area (more than 5,000 inhab/km²) in a

dense region (high connection between ar-eas): Ile-de-France and inner suburbs, regional urban conurbation,

• low-density area in a dense region: residential areas, intermediary areas with residential/in-dustrial diversity,

• dense area in a low-density region, case of medium-sized regional towns,

• low-density area in a low-density region,• tourist area with high temporary occupancy.

Low levels of interop-erability between

the different modes of transport

High levels of interop-erability between


Mobility based on ownership (object-based economy)

1. Personal mobility: • Individual vehicle • Standard public transport (PT)

2. Connected personal mobil-ity, different types of available vehicles, however improved mode transferPark-and-ride, bicycle + bus, etc.

Shared mobility (service-based economy)

3. Alternative mobility (carpool-ing, car sharing, PT) however re-maining compartmentalised

4. Real-time fluid multimodality, non-owned vehicle designed to adapted specifications

Low levels of inter-operability between


High levels of inter-operability between


Mobility based on ownership

1. "Dedicated" vehicle per loader, no solution to change the shipment mode

2. "Dedicated" vehicle, logistics infrastructure solutions adapt-ed to suit the different regional scales to optimise the last mile

Shared mobility 3. Shared vehicle, sharing of storage spaces and flows, no solution to change the ship-ment mode

4. Shared vehicle, real-time fluid multimodality, adapted and communicative logistics infrastructure solutions


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Other regional factors also influence mobility:• type of population (socio-professional cat-

egory, employment, etc.),• business density,• development of the public transport net-

work, heavy transport modes (outlined below) and infrastructures,

• landscape, natural obstacles.

Each of these four visions must enable the aforementioned objectives to be achieved. The means required to achieve these objectives will be different and adapted to suit the parameters chosen. Modelling works for guar-anteeing compliance with these criteria have not been performed. This instead involves pre-

scriptive approaches originating from expert assessments, who integrate existing studies into their opinions. However, these scenarios are based on a set of studies and research part of which is cited below: • Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 – “Sce-

narios and Strategies to 2050”, Paris, IEA Pub-lications, 650 pages, 2008;

• Transport, Energy and CO2, Moving Toward Sus-

tainability, Paris, IEA Publications, 414 pages, 2009;

• Château B., Bagard V., Crozet Y., Lopez-Ruiz H., Enerdata-LET, “Programme de recherche consacré à la construction de scénarios de mobilité durable : comment satisfaire les ob-jectifs internationaux de la France en termes d’émissions de gaz à effet de serre et de pol-lutions transfrontières ?” , 237 pages, 2008;

• Study by M.-H. Massot, J.-P. Orfeuil, “Quelle place pour un véhicule urbain ?”, 2009.

The following table suggests associating the four visions to different regions so as to highlight the privileged associations between types of mobility and regions. Given that mobility occurs over an increasingly large living space, cross-regional travel must also be considered.

N.B.: the font size indicates the predominance of the vision in the geographic area. Source: Group of experts.

Furthermore, the logistics service provider and carrier professions vary according to the region:

Active transportation and heavy modes

A heavy mode implies public, urban means of transport such as the RER (rapid transit train), metro or tramway or freight transport modes such as lor-ries or trains. Active transporta-tion includes walking and cycling.

Dense area Low-density area

Dense region(high connection between areas)

Vision 4Visions 2, 3

Vision 1

Vision 2Vision 3Vision 1

High level of integration of wind energy in the power grid



Dense area Low-density area

Dense region The most complex case: all profes-sions are present within an extreme-ly restricted environment (noise, pol-lution, space, time).

This case can correspond to freight delivered to city outskirts to then be separated and distributed in the city centre or in a medium-sized town. Firstly, heavy transport is used without intermodal transfer and cus-tomers collect their goods. Secondly, transfers to lighter modes of trans-port can occur.

Low-density region

Space restrictions exist and product and profession diversity is relatively high.

Few product types, therefore few professions. Space is not very re-stricted, thus enabling the use of heavy transport almost without in-termodal transfer. Customers travel to collect their goods.

01990 1995 2000 2005

5000

5000

5000

5000

in t-km, index 100 in 1990

Freight transport and customsFrench flagRail transportRiver transportModal share by road

801990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008

140

120

100

in pass-km, index 100 in 1990

Air transportCoach and busRail transportPrivately owned cars

3 General context1.1 Current context

The increase in passenger and freight traffic essentially occurs to the benefit of road transport, which assumes a major share in this traffic, and to the detriment of other modes of transport, for example rail and river transport, despite being more environmentally friendly.

• Consequences on the environment are non-negligible: pollution emissions (espe-cially particulate matter in suspension and nitrogen dioxide) remain a concern as shown by air quality measurements which do not meet the European regulations in many urban areas (refer to the request for proposals Zapa ADEME on this topic and the list of areas). Similarly, over a 20-year

period, GHG emissions and energy consumption continue to increase both with regard to freight transport and passenger transport by road (source CCTN 2010). Political measures, such as the 35-hour week, in addition to the global context (petrol crisis, economic crisis), have had an impact on demand for transport and its timeframes.

Source: SOeS, VNF Field: excluding TRM (freight transport and customs) sailing under foreign flags, transit and pipelines

Source: SNCF, RATP, DGAC, Optille, SOeS, Certu, Traffic report


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• Transport depends on oil products, with highly volatile prices structurally oriented towards increasing over the long-term. Diffi-culties can be observed in controlling diversi-fication, in particular in transitory periods.

• Congestion remains a major prob-lem affecting economic efficiency. This leads to poorly controlled intermodal transfers to lighter modes, in particular two-wheeled vehicles. Road distribution, parking tariffs and the management of delivery zones to this day remain ill-used or little used tools to improve this situation.

• Limited public finance provides budg-et tensions for public transport, thus making their development difficult, both in France and in most countries throughout the world.

• Similarly, household finances, which are also limited, lead to the purchase of small vehicles, essentially used vehicles, and to re-duced travelling distances. The restrictions are therefore growing with regard to cars, above all in terms of use and maintenance.

• Despite this, the urban distancing of towns continues, leading to growing de-pendency on privately owned vehicles.

• Freight transport, centred around road transport, leads to difficulties which will con-tinue over the last miles and for home de-liveries.

By the year 2050

The evolution of this context is complex and depends on many different cri-teria. Mobility changes, both in terms of use and material, will only occur on a mass scale after reaching a point where the restrictions ex-ceed a given threshold, which varies according to the targets (passengers, freight, urban, inter-urban, etc.). It is difficult to predict the intensity and time required for these changes to take place. Nevertheless, they must be identified and understood, and the “winning solutions for all possible futures” must be implemented. The foreseeable changes are listed below:

• GHG emissions and energy con-sumption could develop differently ac-cording to the region, as indicated by the report generated by the strategic analysis centre:– urban, proximity =– suburbs, rural +– long distance ++– long distance freight +

• public and private financing will re-main limited. Therefore, PT offers should be optimised with individuals choosing more competitive solutions, including two- or three-wheeled vehicles. In a general man-ner, this involves the improved use of the same vehicles (filling, driving, vehicle choice according to the mission being carried out, multimodality) and the same infrastructures (road system, car parks, train stations, delivery zones);

• certain households will be increasingly de-pendent on cars, in particular those who are not free to decide where they live or when they work. Subject to the time of year and location, they will be bound to the use of cars. The problem therefore becomes a social problem;

• restrictionswill grow in terms of energy, arable land, water and GHGs. Energy prices will be high, fluctuat-ing and interdependent. Oil production will no longer meet the same demands as today and transfers will take place from one energy source to another. Biofuels will be developed as far as acceptably possible in different forms (1st, 2nd generation liquids or gases – refer to the ADEME roadmap: 2nd generation biofu-els), electricity will be distributed via power grids similarly to a fuel (with the increasing integration of renewable energies – ADEME roadmap: smart grids), our waste will be con-sidered as a resource. Most energy-saving measures will lead to direct profits;

Means for action

The different means for action, presented in the image below, have been known for several years. Taken individually, they have only a mild impact with rebound effects14 generally penalis-ing the results in the long-term.

Progress must now come from solutions ap-plied in mass to large volumes and from main-taining these actions over time. This also involves integrating the complexity of comprehensive mobility and transport ecosystems with their causal loops and understanding this complexity to provide global, systemic solutions.

• the technical progress made on ve-hicles will remain limited and will only slowly penetrate the current fleet of vehicles in operation (refer to the ADEME roadmap: Low GHG-emitting road vehicles);

• the explosion of ICTs has already led to a per-manent connection to social networks, in ad-dition to the creation and sharing of informa-tion by citizens in all fields (transport, health, etc.). These technologies will also inform the consumer of the environmental quality of a product upon purchase or use. ICTs will provide a true breakthrough in terms of vehicle use, energies and infrastructures. They are drawn from the demand and also illustrate a generational transition taking place;

• the contribution made by ICTs will lead to a reduction in certain mo-bility demands (telecommuting in tel-ecentres) in addition to creating new mobility needs by easing the creation of extended social networks and gatherings.

Source: www.fing.org, www.ville2.fr

14. All or part of the gains achieved by introducing more efficient technologies or devices may be cancelled out by developments in the use of said technologies or goods and services incorporating the latter.

E-substitution:travel / telecom substitution

Travel efficiency:lose less km

Modal substitution:shared and "soft" modes

To home / local:eliminate motor-driven travel

Generate other travel

Vehicle occupancy rate

Vehicle sharing

Public transport

Guiding, car park info, etc. Public transport

Traffic information, etc. Walking, cycling, etc.

Reducing distances:bringing resources closer

Vehicle modernisation:weight, efficiency, fuel

New local services, urbanism Engine efficiency and products discharged

Production relocation Alternative fuels, hybrids, etc.

Aerodynamism, weight, sustainability, etc.

Volume(vehicles, journeys,passengers, tonnes)

Distance(km travelled)

Efficiency(consumption, emissions,

products discharged)x x


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15. The RSE is the definition for a given company of sustainable development concepts as a way to better take into account the environmental and social impacts of its activities in its interactions with their stakeholders, while remaining voluntary in nature. For example, it covers the overall quality of supply and sub-contracting channels, the well-being of employees, the business’ ecological footprint, etc.

4 Passenger mobilityThe four visions are described hereinafter. Each vision rep-resents one extreme in a certain manner, and can be seen as caricatural. This enables the visions to be better structured and any barriers to be highlighted. The changes that will take place in terms of mobility will certainly be a mixture of sev-eral visions, probably adapted to suit the region.

How to do better with less?

The main characteristics of cities is (and will be) their poor investment capacity for financing new heavy modes of transport. Progress must above all count on the optimisation of existing solutions, on better filling public and private vehicles, on more efficient feeder services (transfer of passengers from an active transportation mode to a public transportation mode), on heavy modes, and on the development of active modes. Inspiration may come from the solutions used in the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China). Information technologies must also be put to better use given their profitability.

The performance of public transport should be reconsidered: speed will be replaced by precise knowledge of arrival times, by permanent internet connections during transport, the capacity of meeting a relations network, of ordering/receiving goods, comfort, services offered (wide seating, educational software, entertainment, etc.), the quality of transit zones, safety (for example in Ban-galore in India where the buses inform parents of when their child gets on/off the school bus), etc.

Which active mode should be developed? The city of Vancouver spends one third of its transport budget on cycling. Copenhagen is planning on building 150 kilometres of cycle motorways in its suburbs and has set an objective (unthinkable in France) of 50% of daily travel (work, education) performed by bicycle by the year 2015! Numerous innovations are taking place in the field of electric bicycles and scooters with portable batteries, thus increasing the scope of action for heavy modes (including the information-assisted bicycle, the Copenhagen Wheel project, the Yike Bike concept, portable bicycle solutions, the Bcycle system or the electric portable battery scooter). An active mode/heavy mode mixture has the highest potential for increasing the use of PT. One objective could involve producing an A4-size foldable bicycle, possibly electric.

Furthermore, the environmental restrictions could lead to new public-private partnerships, busi-nesses looking to acquire an exemplary image in the eyes of with consumers via the RSE (corpo-rate social responsibility)15. These new partnerships enable local authorities to reduce investment needs and enable companies to undertake philanthropic actions, in a similar manner to Pepsi by financing a hybrid motorbike project. They could also be created by involving citizens via social networks, communities, consumer associations and NGOs. These more or less controlled future partnerships could lead to the creation of virtuous circles. Private businesses would therefore produce data and services for public use (examples of Ikea, Arval and Tomtom).

Within the scope of a systemic approach, the links between health/mobility and insurance/mobil-ity also deserve to be taken into account (refer to the monetisation of externalities connected to transport, the Lifeline Bracelet application, the new insurer initiatives and the French national prevention plan via sports or physical activity) even if this raises issues concerning monitoring methods and data privacy.

Vision 1: Personal mobility

General description

The current economic model continues along its line of development. Car manufactur-ers design and manufacture vehicles producing profit margins while meeting real or created needs. Energy efficiency is improved, mainly by choosing ever smaller, ever lighter models and by the progress made on powertrains (efficiency, hybridisation, full or partial connection to the power grid). Ve-hicle replacement accelerates via a constant race for innovation, on a global scale. Luxury vehicles become cybercars, commu-nicating between themselves and with the infrastructures, integrating autopilot systems. Asia and India, as in the three other scenarios, compete with Europe for multipurpose city cars and compact cars, in addition to for 2- or 3-wheeled vehicles. For the French market, the French industries become specialised in high energy efficient vehicles accord-ing to two different lines: low cost or “emotion vehicle”.

Mobility services are not deployed on a mass scale for economic reasons (op-erating costs) or deeper social reasons (lack of confidence, difficulty in sharing vehicles), and due to the poor availability of low-cost vehicles (new or used) and the difficulty in moving on from the traditional model. The latter, based on the use of privately owned vehicles, was devel-oped “thanks to and with” road infrastructures, petrol stations, governance modes, urbanism and existing freight and service distribution and consumption modes. Despite the issues at stake, the symbiosis of the past makes it impossible to take a new look at the system.

The restrictions imposed by the na-tional and European public authori-ties (taxes, toll gates, parking, bonus/malus, urban pedestrian areas) and the developments taking place with regard to increasing energy prices lead to a gradual improvement of the vehicle fleet and to a change in uses by acting to reduce distances travelled (“I have to think when choosing my car, before using it and while driving”).

Energy suppliers and car manufac-turers are confronted with different obsta-cles hindering the mass development of dif-ferent energy vectors: Carefully selecting the best industries, little or no commitment from the national and European public authorities, insufficient financial capacities to support R&D works. With this in mind, multi-fuel vehi-cles (petrol, ethanol, natural gas for vehicles, biogas, etc.) are being developed enabling the unpredictable fluctuations in oil prices to be more easily assumed, in addition to locally adapted direct producer-purchaser industries (biogas, esterification of waste oil).

Impact of information technology

The use of ICTs in transport is de-veloping in relation to the high replacement rate for telephones, collective innovation (de-velopment of a multitude of applications adapt-ed to suit the needs of citizens and consumers, intended for privately owned vehicles and PT) and efficient economic models. The following areas are covered: • infrastructures:

– parking: knowledge of free spaces, real-time tariff adjustment (for example in San Francisco, which adapts its parking tariff to demand),

– road system: knowledge of traffic, real-time tariff adjustment for certain roads or for ac-cess to certain parts of the region (adapta-tion according to supply/demand);

• energy: knowledge of petrol stations, tariffs, smart charging assistance for rechargeable electric and hybrid vehicles taking into ac-count electricity tariffs and their carbon con-tent (outlined below),

Smart charging

In partnership with the car manufacturer Ford, Microsoft offers an application for controlling domestic energy ex-penses. The software, baptised Hohm, delivered with each Ford electric vehicle, must help the owner to better manage his/her energy expenditure, but also advise the owner with regard to the most beneficial period to charge the vehicle, thus regulating electricity consumption.


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• vehicles:– for private transport: information in real-

time, preventive maintenance, eco-driving assistance, route selection assistance and parking space finder,

– for public transport (bus, tramway, self-service bicycle and vehicle, underground, train), a large part of data (position, travel time, availability) becomes public and avail-able to all stakeholders;

• In some cases, citizens are involved and take part in developing applications us-ing public data, in return promoting access to this data. Information technologies therefore promote the better use of public transport in some cities or counties, however the legal barriers and mountain of institutional stake-holders (Europe, State, region, county, parish, community) remain.

Mobility and regions

In dense areas, increasing congestion in-volves arbitration via the use of tariffs (toll gate, parking), restricted access or road distribution. New types of vehicles are devel-oped: electric bicycles, tricycles, quadricycles, single-use cars (city cars), etc. They overcome these restrictions and exploit free road space, however create significant problems in terms of safety and use of space. In some cities with increasing traffic numbers, very high park-ing rates are set up, thus preventing the less wealthy from using cars within the city. Given the price, energy diversification (in par-ticular electricity) mainly only involves 2- and 3-wheeled vehicles and small vehi-cles. Access to some locations is re-stricted, based on criteria related to the en-vironment, energy and space. Tariffs (toll gates, parking) are dynamic and vary according to demand.

In low-density areas, this personal mobility is particularly well adapted, al-though energy diversification promoting elec-tricity is less developed. Thanks to the techno-logical progress made and the supply of small economic and efficient vehicles, lifestyles are lit-tle affected, which partially compensates for en-ergy costs. Urban distancing must remain under control to avoid increasing dependency on cars.

Impact on households

The average household has one or several multi-purpose vehicles and one city vehicle (2-, 3- or 4-wheeled vehicle). Con-sequently, given the available budgets, used and low-cost vehicles are dominant. The more fragile households and those more dependent on cars do not have an alternative solution. They are forced to use new or used low-cost, low en-ergy-consumption vehicles. They suf-fer dynamic toll pricing, parking and insurance charges (outlined below) forbidding their access to city centres. Sensors and boxes are offered to learn mobility patterns and become traffic trackers in exchange for tariff reductions. Car-pooling is developed for this target user for economic reasons. Car owners accept to “sell their free seat”.

Pay As You Drive

Pay As You Drive™ is a method used to cal-culate a dynamic insurance premi-um according to the driver’s behaviour. A telematics device is installed on-board the vehicle. It periodically transfers a set of data to the insurer (mileage, possible locations visited, driving patterns) based on which the insurance premium is calculated. This type of offer is, for example, proposed in Italy, England and France.

are available, possibly with electric vehicles. The latter require specific economic models to dis-tribute the battery costs between the different stakeholders.

Therefore, the environmental criteria (air quality and GHG objectives) are difficult to comply with. Public policies essen-tially consist of restrictive or limiting tools, which in particular create problems in terms of social equity. The envi-ronmental standards (coupling GHGs and pollutants) on the different vehicle types are based on both standardised cycles and real-use estimations. Moreover, given that petrol prices have reached a so-cially unacceptable limit – a price beyond which the cost of filling a vehicle represents a sum which is considered too high in relation to the average wage –, certain taxes are progres-sively transferred: real mobility is taken into account (outlined below). This form of public surveillance is not accepted by all citizens. We are paying more and more for mobility and less and less for vehicles.

Arbitration by the public authorities

The role of the public authorities re-mains conventional, (few new means for action are available). Quota-type meas-urements are tested (equivalent to a right to own a vehicle, outlined below). Knowledge on mobility is improved, however no predictive model exists for all modes of trans-port. Access to data involving those in the most insecure situations is difficult, thus making suit-able management difficult.

Impact on public transport

Public transport develops very slowly given the stresses suffered by public finances. Nonethe-less, some cities display mobility that is essen-tially based on PT (such as buses with a high level of service (BHLS) in Europe or Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) in the United States), walking and cycling. Passing from one mode to another is not particularly well oiled, even if ICTs improve intermodal transfers. Interregional travel is mostly performed by train. Tourist travel takes place in privately owned vehicles and by train.

Consequences

The economic models are close to those known today. Reducing GHG emis-sions remains particularly expensive, except for vehicle efficiency measures (progress on pow-ertrains). This does not give rise to high dynam-ics in the motor industry. Light-weight vehicles are purchased by individuals and companies for professional use or for relatively long rentals. In dense urban areas, short-term rental systems

Car quotas

In Singapore or Shanghai, cars are heavily taxed upon purchase by a quota system, limiting the amount of registra-tions per year. Registration plates are sold at auctions, at tariffs capable of reaching half of the vehicle price. In Singapore, the tax system also varies according to travel times. Cars that can be used on the week-end can be recognised by their red registration plates.

The Dutch example of road pricing

Paying mileage tax instead of an annual tax disc and vehicle purchase tax. This is the concept to be applied in the Nether-lands from 2011 for heavy-goods vehicles and from 2016 for cars. A communicating “black box” with GPS tracking is installed in the vehicle for the real-time transmission of the number of miles travelled. The objective is to dissuade drivers from using their vehicle at rush hours to reduce traffic and preserve the environment. Income from this tax will be used to maintain the road system and improve traffic.

In a more general manner, road pricing is an economic concept involving charges connected to road use, whether this is pet-rol tax, tax discs, toll gates, parking taxes or urban toll gates, etc. The aim of these taxes is to finance road infrastructures and provide solutions to urban congestion.


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Vision 2: Connected personal mobility

General description

This vision includes a global view of the same vehicles as in the previous vision, how-ever proposes improving the passage from one mode of transport to an-other. This presumes that important progress has been made in terms of infrastructures and information in a systemic approach, while re-maining in an object-based economy. House-holds own several different vehicles. Travel is always well-thought out and undertaken in an individual manner, the number of transport modes available is limited, however multimodality is pro-moted in particular to better exploit active transportation () and heavy modes.

As for the previous vision, mobility servic-es are not deployed on a mass scale for economic reasons. The links con-necting the car to urbanism, our lifestyles and consumption are such that citizens still want to own their own vehicle. On the French market, French industries are becoming spe-cialised in these same segments by integrating high connectivity enabling users to easily pass from one mode to another (automated parking, automatically “stowable” two-wheeled vehicles, etc.), in addition to being easily trans-portable by train or boat.

Being polyvalent and therefore requiring au-tonomy, vehicles mainly use liquid ener-gies. Only 2- and 3-wheeled vehicles and city vehicles can use electricity. Most charging stations are in transit zones, in particular train stations. Active transpor-tation is developing to complement both public transport and privately owned vehicles. Adapted park-and-ride facilities are installed at city outskirts.

The restrictions imposed by the na-tional and European public authori-ties, and the developments taking place with regard to increasing energy prices lead to a gradual improvement of the fleet, and to a change in uses by acting to reduce distances travelled (“I have to think be-fore taking my car”) and to promoting intermodal transfer to heavy modes and active transportation (outlined opposite).

Dynamic traffic management

IBM is working together with the KTH Royal Institute of Technology in Sweden to enable the inhabitants and authorities in Stockholm to manage and use transport in a more in-telligent manner. IBM is providing tools for learning mobility habits in real-time with influential parameters such as the weather, time period and accidents, etc. Mobility his-tory will lead to the forecasting and better use of current transport modes.

The technology used collects information from the GPS systems of nearly 1,500 taxis in the city and will soon collect data from delivery lorries, traffic sensors and pollu-tion sensors on the transport systems and weather information. Data is processed and enables the city and its inhabitants to receive information in real-time regarding traffic flows, times and the best travel options.

For example, users can send an SMS specify-ing their place of departure and their des-tination, and the system will provide the travel time expected by car and by public transport. It automatically determines which information is relevant to resolve a particular problem and continually refines the results as new data arrives. For businesses, this tech-nology can also be transformed into a com-petitive advantage.

Over the last few years, IBM has been work-ing with the city of Stockholm to manage traffic flows at rush hours. The traffic man-agement system implemented has reduced traffic by 20% in the Swedish capital and travel times by almost 50%. Pollution emis-sions have been reduced by 10%. Simultane-ously, the proportion of green vehicles has increased by 9%.


ICTs are undergoing mass develop-ment, in particular with the marketing of personal travel assistants (PTA, outlined opposite) which manage and optimise travel. When faced with the complexity of travel in dense areas, the PTA manages tariffs in real-time in addition to traffic, and informs users of the door-to-door journey time before leaving. It also eases passage from one mode to another, helps reserve parking spaces, makes better use of the journey (Internet connection, social network), and therefore simplifies the multimodal journey.

The first PTAs

The personal travel assistant (PTA) will op-erate in 2 manners:• with the citizen: it will receive the in-

formation it requires in real-time to choose the best modes of transport based on its own criteria (cost, time, CO2 emissions, social links, etc.). The PTA will be capable of providing this information, but also of aggregating data to display the best mode of transport, its location and time, for ex-ample, based on the schedule provided. The PTA will also be able to synchronise the journeys made by several people to guide them into taking the same bus or to inform a company that a parking space must be reserved or freed, or even to au-tomatically warn a company of a person being delayed for a meeting;

• with the mobility organisation authority: the PTA will provide precious public information on real mobility habits without resorting to expensive and insuf-ficient surveys. The data collected on the modes of transport used and their fill rates and on traffic in general can be examined according to the day of the week, weather, accidents or even strikes. So much informa-tion working to improve the overall vision of the interactions taking place between supply and demand. This will also identify the households and people that are the most dependent on cars and who have no other solution.

Tools for corporate fleets already exist: GreenRoad, Arval, PTAs already in operation. Lyons, Mobiville project by the Inrets, Cisco, The SNCF Compagnon, Vialsace, Avego: dynamic carpooling, iBordeaux.

In addition to the areas listed in vision 1, the following areas are covered:

1. infrastructures: • train stations, docks and more generally all

transit areas (car parks, bus shelters, etc.) become pleasant living spaces, con-nected to the Internet, enabling the user to integrate various activities into his/her journey time. These equipped areas are also used to order and receive goods. Inter-zone travel is also eased by the PTA, by sharing all public information relating to transport;

2. vehicles: • for private transport, vehicles also become

traffic trackers, forwarding and sharing cer-tain information;

3. for public transport, all data (including data related to free seats and comfort) be-comes public and is available to all stake-holders. Numerous solutions involving coupling bicycles with PT are proposed, thus improving the fill rates for heavy transport and their avail-ability periods. Social networks are also used to improve quality and information on traffic;

4. certain surveillance means (cameras or presence sensors) developed for security purposes could be used to quantify traffic and improve knowledge.


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Dynamic carpooling (outlined below) is experiencing little development de-spite data exchange tools, as problems remain involving insurance, regulations, competition with taxis and lack of confidence.

In certain cases, citizensplay a role as for vision 1.

Mobility and regions

In all regions, mobility shows posi-tive development. In low-density areas, privately owned cars remain, however links with other modes of transport are easier. Inter-regional and tourist travel is mainly undertaken using heavy transport modes thanks to the multimodal approaches eased by the PTA for the first and last mile.


The average household has one multi-purpose vehicle and several single-purpose vehicles (2-, 3- or 4-wheeled vehicles). Consequently, given the available budgets, used and low-cost vehicles are dominant.


The role of the public authorities remains for the most part conventional. They act on private personal mobility to raise taxes on the one hand and on public transport, which receives financing on the other hand. Knowl-edge on mobility advances, with access to certain data in real-time. This leads to the implementation of travel models and therefore demand predictions so as to better adapt supply and thus better finance public transport. Data relating to those in the most in-secure situations is partially accessible (as using private modes), making adapted management possible with modulated restrictions.


Public transport experiences posi-tive developments thanks to PTAs and the development of comple-mentary active transportation modes improving feeder services (passenger transfer from an active transportation mode to a public transportation mode). Certain cit-ies show mobility to be essentially based on PT, walking and cycling. Interregional travel is mostly performed by train.

Consequences

The environmental criteria are reached. Public policies consist of using restrictive or limiting tools, in addition to multimodality promotion tools. As in vision 1, the environmental standards are based on standardised cycles and real-use estimations. Certain taxes progressively rely on real mobility.

Vision 3: New compartmentalised mobility

General description

Given the trend changes in passenger trans-port (reduction in distance travelled, increase in vehicle ownership costs connected to invest-ment and use, increase in access restrictions and surveillance) and faced with competition from Asia and India, in France and more

Dynamic carpooling

Dynamic carpooling provides an almost real-time supply offer. The subscriber contacts the service a few minutes before his/her departure to look for a driver capa-ble of offering the desired carpooling service for the requested itinerary. The concept is based on a real-time data exchange, taking place between potential drivers and passengers, via their telephone and in par-ticular thanks to satellite positioning and mobile Internet technologies. With a suffi-cient quantity of participants equipped with smartphones, the operation mode is flexible and produces a high quality of service. Sev-eral experiments have been conducted: in Holland, for employees of the Amsterdam airport, in Germany, for those of Frankfurt airport, for inhabitants of the San Francisco bay, in Switzerland or recently in France (in Isère and in Lorraine).

Nevertheless, specific and adapted ve-hicles are developed, more easily using alternative energies, including electricity. This passage to a function-based econ-omy eases the distribution of light-weight and efficient vehicles for two main reasons:• purchasers are not users. They reason more

in terms of rational criteria relating to overall ownership costs, requiring car manufacturers to undertake new works and new specifica-tions. Energy efficiency can therefore be sold. An additional cost upon vehicle purchase be-comes acceptable if the operating costs are lower (case of the electric vehicle). Nonethe-less, low-cost, light-weight and efficient com-bustion vehicles can offer a positive econom-ic footprint when also taking into account the used car market. The latter will probably determine part of the successes and failures to come;

• users use vehicles which they would not ac-cept to buy, on a daily basis to meet a func-tional need as they provide additional services: time saving, access to a virtual garage integrat-ing “pleasure” cars (outlined below), etc.

generally in Europe, economic stakehold-ers are making a more or less controlled transition towards mobility services. Car manufacturers therefore sell most of their vehicles to private companies who offer different forms of “mobility packages”. This leads to modal shares in heavy and active transportation modes, but also to two-wheeled motorbikes, the ownership costs per mile of which are lower. Many innovations ap-pear, uniting vehicles with energy, in-frastructures and information. These new skills conquer markets outside of Europe, in particular in megalopolises.

New forms of mobility and new vehi-cle uses are developed, initially in dense areas. The use of single personal or collective 2- to 4-wheeled vehicles, car sharing, carpooling, transport on demand (outlined below) and group taxis, etc., makes up a significant share in mobility. Car manufacturers, insurers and rental compa-nies (including banks) offer customised vehicle packages for a choice based on need or desire.

However, no global mobility offer ex-ists and interoperability is incom-plete for several reasons: • little public data,• mobility services connected to regions or lo-

cal stakeholders, persistence of legal and insti-tutional barriers, difficulties in reviewing the transport governance mode.

These services act as a lever to imple-ment GHG reduction measures cost-ing less than structural actions (infrastructures, change in energy vector, etc.), and without any restrictive tax measure for vehicle owners (in particular tax discs or residential parking). Cou-pled with political actions, they can integrate a certain level of social equity.

Transport on demand

This is a public transport service, where passengers are generally picked up at their home, subject to booking. A relevant solu-tion for peri-urban and rural regions, where transport demand is often widespread and regular lines are rare. This service was initially set up for the elderly. Today, it is promoted to a wide audience and for numerous travel reasons: free-time, education, administrative processes, shopping, etc. Generally designed, defined and managed by a local authority, it is often entrusted to carriers or taxi compa-nies. Its form is adapted to each region: from door-to-door taxi-style transport to a regu-lar line, the itinerary of which is determined according to the bookings placed, with the times being either set or free.

Mu by Peugeot

Peugeot offers a sort of Mobility ac-count, that can be credited by the user via an online payment system, with the number of mobility units desired. These can be used to rent services in Mu by Peugeot points of sale accessible on the Internet and via smartphones. These services range from car to bicycles, scooters, utility vehicles and also include all accessories such as baby seats, roof racks, bicycle racks and trailers. The idea is to centralise everything relating to travel, including by means of partner offers for plane tickets, trains, an eco-driving pro-gramme or holidays earning mobility units.


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The restrictions placed on solo drivers enable transfers to take place towards these alterna-tive modes and increase light-vehicle fill rates. These restrictions nonetheless remain hetero-geneous, in a similar manner to the “rewards” offered to other modes (access to fast lanes, refunds, reduced taxes, etc.).


ICTs develop, in particular by associating PTA marketing. However, services remain compartmentalised. The PTA does not enable users to plan a journey by cumulating differ-ent modes of public and private transport. The areas below are covered, however this re-mains limited: • infrastructures:

– car parks: knowledge of free spaces,– road system: knowledge of traffic,– transit zones: as in vision 2, these become

pleasant living spaces, connected to the In-ternet;

• energy: knowledge of petrol stations,• vehicles:

– for privately owned vehicles, eco-driving aid, route planning,

– for public transport, all data is made avail-able to all stakeholders, integrating data protection conditions for private data.

In certain cases, dynamic carpooling is developed provided that the problems con-nected to insurance, competition with taxis and lack of confidence are resolved.

Mobility according to the region

In all regions, mobility shows positive development. However, in low-density ar-eas and regions, privately owned cars remain, with in some cases new mobility services adapted to suit these regions. Interregional and tourist travel is mainly undertaken using heavy transport modes thanks to the multimodal ap-proaches eased by the PTA and carpooling for the first and last mile.


Certain households give up their second car when services meet their needs. Consequently, classic public transport modes and active transportation modes are bet-ter used, better financed and thus better integrated into the mobility chain. The average household uses mobility packages and may possibly have one multi-purpose vehicle or one single-purpose vehi-cle (2-, 3- or 4-wheeled vehicle).


The role of the public authorities remains for the most part conventional, as de-scribed in vision 2.


Certain cities show mobility to be essentially based on PT, walking and cycling. Interregional travel is mostly performed by train or carpooling.

Consequences

As in vision 2, the environmental crite-ria are reached, public policies use re-strictive or limiting tools, in addition to multimodality promotion tools. The environmental standards are based on standardised cycles and real-use es-timations. Certain taxes progressively rely on real mobility.

Vision 4: Real-time fluid multimo-dality

General description

As in vision 3, French and European economic stakeholders make a more or less con-trolled transition towards mobility services. Car manufacturers therefore sell most of their vehicles to private compa-nies, who offer different forms of door-to-door mobility packages. New professions appear (in particular in the insurance industry) in addition to new in-novations uniting vehicles with energy, in-frastructures and information. These new skills enable new markets to be conquered outside of Europe, in particular in the world’s megalo-polises.

In France, coordinated actions be-tween regions and economic stake-holders have led to a change in governance modes and our transport authorities, to finally accommodate innovations as much as possible and anchor them into our regions by adding to the links between the industrial fabric, public authorities and citizens. They make our mobility systems more robust when faced with future crises.

Several mobility operators appear, of-fering simple and efficient mobility packages to citizens, leading to door-to-door multimodal mobility. This position as a “conductor” or integrator could be filled by several stakeholders, which are today “limited” to one or several fields: vehicles, energy, infra-structures and information. The operator will manage the level of complexity via personal travel assistants.

Telecommunications

Mobility web service providers:

Multimodal information portals

Ticketing platform

Computer solution developers

Smartphone applications

Web 2.0

Rail

Public transport

Car sharing

Banks

Micropayment

Technological solution suppliers:

Payment means:

Transport operators:

Mobility operators

Self-service bicycle

Source: Frost & Sullivanhttp://www.frost.com/prod/servlet/market-insight-top.pag?docid=192354982Ademe Translation


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The symbiotic links uniting the motor industry, the city, oil and our lifestyles have been under-stood and unravelled. Major innovations provid-ed by the implementation of a function-based economy applied to mobility, make it possible to integrate a circular economy into the design and manufacture of vehicles, thus leading to the better use of these vehicles and the birth of a new field of science: the science of uses. By placing the user at the very heart of the prob-lem to be solved, real-time fluid multimodality offers improved efficiency (environmental, eco-nomic and social efficiency).

Two conditions are met in most major metropolises and large urban resi-dential areas. They overcome the major barriers hindering the spread of real-time fluid multimodality:• all data relating to public transport

is made available to all, to create shared tools (outlined opposite). In certain cases and under certain conditions, privately owned vehicles that accept sharing systems also provide their data in real-time;

• stakeholders implement a new govern-ance mode optimising the entire mobility system: reducing congestion, complying with air quality and GHG objectives, reducing en-ergy uncertainty in the transport industry. Its status, its organisation with regard to the au-thorities in place and its governance mode (including citizens) must still be decided. This meta-authority or single mul-timodal authority (outlined opposite) would have the following skills:– it would have access to all public data;– it could issue road use permits in real-time;– it could adjust parking tariffs, taxes, toll gate

fees, etc. in real-time;– it could adjust “rewards and advantages” in

real-time: access to fast lanes, tariff reduc-tions, etc.

These two conditions lead to a multitude of services and a large offer for different types of vehicles with an important place for active transportation and the integration of door-to-door mobility service offers. Part-nerships are created between developers and regions to use public data and implement useful tools for both citizen travel and within other fields: water, energy, health.

Availability of public data

Certain cities have decided to open up their public data, in particular in terms of mobil-ity, however also for other topics: real-time timetables, vehicle availability, infrastructures (in particular parking spaces). Partnerships (such as the Code for America) between cities and the community of developers therefore lead to the creation, despite the lack of public budget, of tools meeting the new or identified citizen needs. This ranges from the video game (such as Clim’Way) to applications for smartphones, text messag-ing systems, or even the real performance scorecards for a bus network such as Hamp-ton Roads Transit (United States). In a more general manner, the idea is to increase and organise exchanges taking place between citizens and local governments.

Some of the world’s public bodies (INSEE, World Bank, OCDE, Eurostat, EPA) are al-ready making their data available, which therefore enables all of this data to be col-lated, in particular via Google (Google labs - public data explorer).

Numerous applications already exist: Transit Bay (train with an application for the blind), EveryBlock, Mom Maps, The Original Parking Locater, Accessible Parking SF, MuniApp (for transport), iCommuteSF (for transport), Bart Arrivals and Rail Bandit (train), walkscore.

French cities are also already making some transport-related data available to all: Bordeaux (Google transit, iBordeaux), Rennes (iRennes, self-service bicycle, Keo-lis), Maubeuge (Google transit), the Lyons metro. In March 2010, Brest Métropole Océaneunanimously voted for the free use of the cartographic database describing public space (road system, addresses, public facilities, aerial photographs, car parks, traffic rules, etc.). A parking space locator service is also included, reserved for those with re-duced mobility: MappyHandicap.


All data involving the infrastructures, ener-gies and vehicles mentioned in vision 2 becomes public. Furthermore, data on real consumption and private vehicle costs is also available and shared by consumers, causing car manufacturers to take into account real uses.

Mobility according to the region

Real-time fluid multimodality can be considered in dense regions mainly due to the high level of restrictions and large market. This vision involves adjusting the pos-sible mobility means according to the region.

A single multimodal authority

A single authority in a residential area for the highly efficient management of daily travel. By arbitrating under multiple restrictions (con-gestion, journey time, energies consumed, pollution, costs), this leads to the creation of a spot market for mobility (refer toSenda, LVMT, Datact and that outlined below).• Singapore is in theory the only example

of a Land transport authority. This authority manages both public transport, infrastruc-tures (roads, car parks), toll gate tariffs, alternative transport modes to cars and vehicle taxes. It provides citizens with in-formation on all types of mobility in addi-tion to a mobility assistant, MyTransport.sg. In this respect, Steria has developed a smart transport system using taxis as data collectors,

• other information on this topic: the study conducted for the Medef, the proposal made by the French association of public transport authorities (GART) for a sus-tainable transport organisation authority (AOMD),

• European projects: Epomm (European Plat-form on Management Mobility), CVIS (Col-laborative Vehicle Infrastructure System).

Why not have a spot market for mobility?

• As for electricity, a spot rate can be dis-suasive and lead to a shift in the travel demand: this is known as erasure. Tariff incentives could thus appear to avoid the need to use vehicles (not travelling has a price).

• As for electricity, the spot tariff leads to an increase in tariffs when demand increases, with similar tariff practices (extra costs for rush hours). This will also be linked to infra-structure-related restrictions (congestion) and environmental restrictions (air quality). The determination of tariffs will therefore not only take place within the market but will include external elements which will amplify the supply and demand mecha-nisms. Indeed, when demand increases, congestion and pollution increase, thus causing an increase in external costs and therefore in tariffs: this is the notion of global tariffs taking into account externalities.

• The spot market should manage all modes of transport (global multimodal offer), while remaining capable of learning modal behaviour, either occasional (strike, weath-er, etc.) and external to the market, or con-nected to the market (effects of specific tariffs): this is the notion of real-time tariffs per mode.

New stakeholders appear and, at the same time, former stakeholders be-come involved in new professions: door-to-door mobility operator and data aggregator, flow regulator. Similarly to the electricity spot market (prices negotiated the day before for the following day according to supply and de-mand), a mobility market brings together supply and demand in real-time (outlined op-posite). The PTA is essential in managing this complexity, creating new exclusions (from the digital world) to be protected. PTAs also inform users of the transport demand in real-time and the modes used. For the first time, demand can be finely modelled, integrating effects caused by the weather, time of year, accidents, strikes, etc. for improved sup-ply management. Access to data is centralised with data protection for private data being very important.


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Mobility gradients appear, with low-density regions still having to resort to privately owned vehicles. Nonetheless, the further the services are developed, integrating more and more niche market solutions, the more the associated technologies become widespread, the more the low-density regions also see the development of solutions adapted to suit their specific needs, with the potential development of new types of vehicles. PTAs enable privately owned vehicles to be better shared and the passage from one mode of transport to another to be more easily under-taken, thus improving the use of heavy modes.

This vision also reveals the need to consider travel from one region to another, with varying densities and different mobility means. Tourists therefore make up a specific example of passengers not aware of the mo-bility means available. Adapted solutions (in particular the development of special PTA ap-plications) would enable these cross-regional differences to be managed and lead to the development of an essential national or even European pilot system.


Households own one or several mobility pack-ages without owning a vehicle. Nonetheless, multimodality using a function-based economy presents risks for the consumer: unclear package which is not easy to compare, more expensive mobility, difficulty in obtaining eco-nomic models in low-density areas, initial diffi-culties in obtaining vehicles dedicated and opti-mised for these new uses. These risks must be described in detail, quantified and worked on for their minimisation.


The implementation of a meta-authority, in a form which must still be defined, leads to simultaneously modulating the re-strictions applied to solo drivers with other solutions, with mobility offers and rewards and advantages for those who choose efficient, shared modes of transport, including active transportation. This also leads to an adjustment in the restrictions imposed on those in the most insecure situations.

Consequences

As in the previous 2 visions, the environ-mental criteria are reached and pub-lic policies use restrictive or limiting tools, this time on a local and global scale, in addition to multimodality promotion tools. The environmental standards are based on standardised cycles and real-use estimations. In this vision, most taxes are progressively based on real mobility. Many types of energies are developed according to the services. These convergences must lead to a reduction in GHG abatement costs.

These more efficient, more robust when faced with energy crises, and more citizen-friendly mobility means also find value in sharing: ob-ject sharing (outlined below), information sharing. This also leads to improved confidence levels, explains the advantages and disadvantages of this system and leads to collectively determin-ing the surveillance and security limits.

Technological obstacles:

a. Difficulties in accessing public data connect-ed to passenger transport in real-time for all modes of transport and sharing this data,

b. Difficulties in distributing vehicles (cars, two-wheeled vehicles) designed for mobility services at acceptable costs, optimised for each use and integrating alternative energy sources.

The obstacles identified for passen-ger mobility

The main obstacles identified by the experts are presented below, classed according to three categories (technological, organisational or so-cio-economic in nature) and four areas (vehi-cles, information, infrastructures and energy).

And if yield management applied to all modes of transport…

Invented by air transport in 1958, then developed by Delta Airlines in 1984 following the de-regulation of this sector, yield management or revenue management, a system for managing available capacities, is now used by many service providers: the hotel industry, car rental, amusement parks, museums, rental of advertising spaces, toll roads, stadiums, healthcare establish-ments, etc.

The implementation of yield management generally requires specialised software comprising: • forecasting functions (based on sales and booking analyses), • optimisation functions: calculation of bid prices16, capacity allocation, proposal for opening and

closing tariff classes, proposal for overbookings, business quotations,• communication functions: broadcasting tariff information internally and to the distributers con-

cerned.

The passage to door-to-door multimodal mobility services should require the use of yield management. This will nonetheless require new knowledge, new expertise and new professions. Certain users are already used to the latter and believe it to be normal to pay several different tariffs for the same seat in the same plane, however others do not. Acceptability will therefore vary according to the generations.

Mobility must be analysed and understood in its complexity, after having identified all influential parameters, in order to be made predictable and modelled. This applies for all types of users, all transport modes and in real-time so that economic models can be built. Furthermore, public au-thorities could introduce new dimensions in terms of social equity and land planning to this tool, which could lead to higher tariffs in low-density areas for example. A new research field is being opened to introduce “public values” into a tool purely dedicated to maximis-ing profit.

Multimodal free seat commerce (or mobile space commerce) could be developed. In a concrete manner, after having attributed an acceptable price to this seat and under conditions that can be understood by all, this must be incorporated into other seats for the entire door-to-door journey and communicate this date to the mobility service provider, then to the user.

16. The maximum price that a buyer is willing to pay.


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Organisational obstacles:

c. Impossibility of learning and understanding multimodal mobility means according to the time of year, the modes and infrastructures available, the weather and accidents, and therefore of predicting the latter,

d. Furthermore, the impossibility of managing and optimising multimodal mobility means in a region containing several transport or-ganisation authorities (particularly for legal reasons), while also considering the major role played by infrastructures such as car parks, road distribution and associated tariffs,

e. Difficulties in inserting new categories of small interoperable city vehicles (2- to 4-wheeled vehicles) into traffic without safe-ty issues, possibly in association with heavy modes, despite the energy and environmen-tal benefits,

f. Difficulties in assembling innovative projects in terms of mobility given the level of diversi-ty of the stakeholders that must be involved, and in gathering various feedback to provide to the economic stakeholders and public authorities (Sustainable City programmes, Smart Grid, Load Infrastructure, Low-Car-bon Vehicles).

Summary

Socio-economic obstacles:

g. Lack of research projects on the socio-econ-omy of innovation based on a science of uses including citizens, industries and regions, and aiming at defining the success conditions for mobility services (appropriation of these new tools), the new vehicle uses included in services, their social acceptance, digital divide, economic models and better road sharing.

h. Poor sharing of the best mobility practices according to regions throughout the Euro-pean Union,

i. Legal, economic and institutional barriers in-volving the sharing of public data in an ac-ceptable manner with regard to privacy pro-tection,

j. Insufficient profitability of mobility services in the short and medium-term, difficulty in changing habits and offering clear, competi-tive mobility packages better than the stand-ard economic model.

Vehicle Energy Infrastructure Information

Technology b b b a

Organisational/Regulator e, f f e, f c, d, f

Socio-economy g, h, j g, h, j g, h, j g, h, i, j

5 Freight mobility

Vision 1: Dedicated transport

General description

In the absence of interoperability and with pri-vately owned vehicles, flow remains concen-trated and this mode of delivery reveals itself as difficult to optimise in dense ar-eas. Better adapted to low-density areas (rural, small town areas) where space is not very restricted, deliveries are performed di-rectly by heavy mode (by lorry and where pos-sible by train) with very little intermodal transfer. However, vehicles have relatively low fill rates and are filled with a limited num-ber of products. People accepting to travel to collect their goods do not necessarily find all of their products in the same location.

In a dense environment, given the multi-tude of products and professions in addition to the development of e-commerce, heavy goods vehicles are not correctly filled, which forces service providers to resort to a wide vari-ety of vehicles (size, weight, architecture), thus requiring high financing capacities. The implementation of homogeneous Low Emission Zones (LEZ, outlined below) nation-wide then throughout the European Union, leads to vehicle replacements that are not easily supported in financial terms by small structures, except by increasing their delivery costs.

Vehicles simultaneously improve on several fronts: energy efficiency under real use conditions (lightening, optimising energy flows), pollution emissions (post-treatment, combustion), noise (materials, architecture) while maintaining almost constant costs. More and more fuels are available leading to engines running on multiple energies. Ac-cessories such as air conditioning can operate separately on batteries or be connected to the power grid when the vehicle is not in operation.


Traceability and ICTs lead to the pre-cise estimation of CO2 emissions and pollution per product delivered, per service provider, per vehicle, per store and potentially per customer. Using this data, regional au-thorities can begin to set up indexed tax measures on the real environmental damage caused (mileage tax, carbon tax, etc.) and therefore act on breaking down trans-port modes. This information is also available to consumers, and increasingly structures their purchases, which leads to industrial transforma-tions and new management modes (outlined below). In some cases, citizens are involved and take part in developing applications using public data, in return promoting the need to ac-cess this data. Information technology therefore plays a role in the choice of products by basing this on specific criteria predefined by the consumer and by accessing efficien-cy databases generated by industrialists and consumer associations. The delivery mode cho-sen affects emissions and therefore prices. The consumer is capable of arbitrating and priori-tises slow delivery modes or performs part of the journey himself/herself.

Creating low emission zones

Many cities and built-up areas place high im-portance on improving air quality. This is why several European cities have already set up low emission zones or are about to do so. In these well-defined zones, the circulation of certain cars is subject to con-ditions based on their real environ-mental efficiency. These low emission zones also lead to an increase in the quality of life for inhabitants and promote the use of low-pollution vehicles and public transport.


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A question of information

For businesses, many tools such as the RSE15, the ecological footprint, the carbon content or the management of a rented fleet of vehicles will lead to the development of more or less intrusive solutions, initially informing the business in real-time of the greenhouse gas emis-sions produced, then of the pollution emissions (in particular nitrogen oxides) and noise produced by vehicles in operation, on a more long-term basis.

For consumers, since Edward Bernays (author of Propaganda, How to manipulate the masses in an institutional framework17, 1928), which defined the major principles of mass mental manipu-lation, which he coined as “engineering of consent”, the consumer clearly does not have all the information required to make a choice. In this context, marketing is deployed to provide partial, selective information.

Nearly 100 years later, solutions such as Goggles, enable, using a photo of an item (monument, book, work of art, bottle of wine, logo), access via the Internet and a recognition system, to information about the item. This, for example, provides details on a product and a price comparison.

Today, it is therefore possible to provide a full set of information: product ingredients, carbon content, environmental footprint of the company having manufactured the product, etc. When faced with this multitude of information, aggregator systems will be created, which the consumer can configure according to his/her needs and desires: • Allergic to xx,• Preference for organic farming, wood originating from correctly managed forests,• Refusal to purchase products containing GMOs,• Refusal to purchase products from a company that employs children (or its sub-contractors),• …

The aggregator would provide a simple response (such as “Green” or “Red”), in real-time and updated. The consequences would be immediate, international and require a new management system within the company, directed towards “informing the customer”. This would require the review of all manufacturing and transport processes, all management modes, all quality criteria and sustainable development information, etc.

17. Propaganda extract: “In theory, everybody buys the best and cheapest commodities offered him on the market. In practice, if everyone went around pricing, and chemically testing [products] for sale before purchasing, economic life would become hopelessly jammed. To avoid such confusion, society consents to have its choice narrowed to ideas and objects brought to its attention through propaganda of all kinds [i.e. marketing].”

• vehicles: real-time information, preventive maintenance, eco-driving aid, route planning;

• freight: the Internet of Things (or IoT, out-lined below) enables a product to be tracked, information regarding this product to be pro-vided and this product to be integrated into mobile applications so that in turn, it takes part in creating data.

ICTs are developing. The following areas are covered: • infrastructures, essentially the road sys-

tem: knowledge of traffic, real-time tariff ad-justment for certain roads or access to cer-tain parts of the region (adaptation to supply/demand). Delivery zones remain poorly man-aged;

• energy: knowledge of petrol stations, tar-iffs, smart charging assistance for recharge-able electric and hybrid vehicles taking into account electricity tariffs and their carbon content;

The Internet of Things

This is the extension of the Internet of Things and places in the real world thanks to the associa-tion of labels (equipped with codes that can be read by mobile devices) or Web addresses as-sociated to things or places. When applied to freight transport, this consists in equipping the vehicle (heavy and light) with its own IP address (Internet identification number), so that it can communicate with:• infrastructures, car parks, urban toll gates and road systems, as part of the network, such as

nodes, to receive information (total taxes and other costs, without needing a control camera or parking metre, etc.), to send data to regulate flows and pollution emissions based on rules and criteria to be defined and, in certain cases, to drive cybercars (vehicles without drivers) in an automated manner,

• in order to learn new maintenance rules in real-time, their manufacturers (constructors, equip-ment suppliers, garages) who are aware of the level of system damage in real-time, review the design rules from the car manufacturer to the equipment supplier and plan operations, order parts and organise maintenance operations. This knowledge would also be transferred to con-sumers, enabling some to self-manage their mobility and to offer improvements directly to car manufacturers,

• the transport authorities, informing them of the pollution and greenhouse gas emissions pro-duced, thus enabling them to develop precise simulation tools for air quality, to count emissions for individuals and companies and to develop common distribution and sharing rules to mini-mise our impact,

• consumers, citizens and application developers, to provide them with all or part of this data enabling them in particular to learn the real costs and consumption levels of a vehicle before its purchase.

Finally, the IoT must think in a global manner, considerably increase collated information databases, decentralise choices and arbitrations and provide everyone with the data or tools required to better consume and produce at the same time. New knowledge will therefore be produced by systems such as neural networks, connecting data together and defining new functions between input and output data, which remain as of yet unknown:• vehicle functioning and pollution emissions in real-use,• vehicle flow, pollution emissions and air quality,• vehicle flow, road systems and vehicle functioning, • air quality and health impact.

As indicated by Daniel Kaplan, delegate-general of the Fing, the IoT must be considered with high ambitions to “provide the physical world with the plasticity of the digital world”.

to have access to a minimum number of prod-ucts. Penalty systems (LEZ, tax, quotas) and reward systems (assistance, dedicated roads) are developed, managed by a new freight transport authority (outlined below).


Given the delivery costs (in particular for food stuffs), public authorities are required to act, in particular to enable those in the most insecure situations (individuals or professionals)


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Delivery solutions

The development of e-commerce and direct deliveries to individuals (using buffer stocks such as relay points) leads to the use of smaller 2- or 4-wheeled vehicles, however the low level of interoperability leads to a multiplication of flows, which is not easy to manage in terms of road safety and road sharing (refer to the figure page opposite). Delivery tariffs increase and now strongly depend on delivery times. In parallel, independent delivery modes are be-ing developed for economic reasons: carpooling for packages and consumer grouping for direct deliveries from warehouses, etc.

Towards a freight transport authority?

Extract from an article on the Internet dedicated to transport and logistics evoking the point of view of Gatmarif, an association grouping together representatives from the world of road trans-port and the logistics sector with the administrative and political authorities of the Île de France region:

“Policies are continually reprimanded to take into account the mode of operation of the profes-sion. Proof: the desire of some elected officials of the regional council of the Ile-de-France region to create a special Freight organisation authority. This provoked an angry reaction at the head office for those taking part in Gatmarif, who reminded us that their companies operate in a highly competitive sector and that it is out of the question that they allow themselves to be governed by politics. At most, a governing body would be considered by these company bosses as the best suited tool for their sector of activity.

Among the ideas promoted by the Gatmarif: creating logistics hotels integrated into the urban community without causing any disturbance. These buildings, which would take on the appearance of a lambda building and would be home to large vehicles in the city centre for unloading and reloading their content, then to small vehicles for final delivery. “The Sogaris is think-ing about this, however we, at the Gatmarif, really need to commit to this path”, stated the chairman”.

Individual / professional: by foot, cycling, light-duty vehicle

Letterbox

Urban area

City

District

Road

Building

from

wal

king

to 1

9t

from

wal

king

to 1

9t

from

LD

V

to 1

9t

from

LD

V

to 1

9t

Store Box

Relay Pt

Veh Stop Pt

Urban Distr. Centre

Logistics zone

River, Sea Rail

Road (40 T)40 T

Freight delivery diagram. The different meeting modes between goods/consumers Source: Group of experts

and are capable of finely tracking cus-tomer consumption, both with regard to products and carbon content, which is not accepted throughout the world. Most taxes are progressively transferred to real mobil-ity data.

For financial and environmental reasons, de-livery specialisation is increasing further, leading to new vehicles, new en-ergies, new logistics plans and new delivery modes according to the products, their value, weight, life, packaging and the environmental ef-ficiency objectives to be reached. For the last metres of some deliveries, human or electric drive is developed on a global scale, in particu-lar using handling trucks on-board lorries. How-ever delivery zones are not integrated into the chain and remain ill-managed, which does not overcome problems related to urban con-gestion.

In parallel, new delivery locations are be-ing developed, enabling the customer to col-lect their goods at the same time as passen-gers change transport mode: train stations become freight reception areas (according to weight), enabling certain products to be trans-ported by rail. This also applies to petrol sta-tions where services are also developed. All of this is made possible by the progress made by ICTs, the IoT and the development of mo-bile applications. For heavy products, new professions and services are created, transporting these products or using shared vehicles (the consumer becomes the logistician for his/her goods).

Consequences

The environmental criteria (air quality and GHG objectives) are difficult to com-ply with. Public policies essentially con-sist of restrictive or limiting tools such as low emission zones, toll gates, parking and possible quotas and taxes for businesses. Di-vergent interests appear for example between optimised deliveries, sharing public space and nocturnal disturbances. The environmental standards (coupling GHGs and pollutants) on the different vehicle types are based on both standardised cycles and real-use estimations, leading to a full pollution and carbon count for the products delivered. Petrol price fluctuations are dif-ficult to accept and multinational companies progressively develop “autarkic” ener-gies (outlined below). Furthermore, they inte-grally control the entire product logistics chain

Energies, heading towards autarky?

Energy is an essential element in the world of transport. Oil plays a major role due to its unique properties perfectly adapted to the needs of land (and air) transport. In or-der to prepare for the period during which supply will no longer fulfil the demand, en-ergy diversification must be stud-ied for existing and new modes of transport. This involves selecting the best energy for the use and developing local and direct producer-purchaser industries.

Moreover, the increase in energy cost re-sults more or less directly in an increase in petrol prices according to the level of tax amortisation. This could create a social threshold, a price beyond which the cost of filling a vehicle represents a sum considered too high in relation to the average wage. In 2008, this led to an upsurge of fuel theft, in particular on lorries.

How can we guarantee the energy fu-ture of transport? By identifying on a global scale all solutions leading to an in-crease in energy diversification and the local self-production of en-ergy for transport, while guaranteeing ver-satile uses; by identifying the challenges faced at all levels – whether technical, regula-tory or fiscal –; in addition, with optimisation being the rule, by locally studying the best business and local authority or-ganisations so that one person’s waste is another person’s resource and so that all fossil or natural resources are exploited to their maximum potential. This energy poly-generation requires a local organisation system. The example of the joint venture between Neste Oil (refining company) and Stora Enso (paper manufacturer), both Finn-ish companies, enabling them to simultane-ously produce paper, fuel and energy from wood, should be reproduced by adapting this example to our resources.


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Vision 2: Dedicated multimodal transport

General description

Given that vehicles are classed as privately owned, and taking into account the economic, environmental and logistics restrictions, they are becoming increasingly special-ised according to the region and profession, leading to increases in transport costs. Delivery prices therefore rise signifi-cantly, thus affecting consumers.

As in vision 1, vehicles improve in terms of energy efficiency, pollution emissions and noise emissions at almost constant costs. They are equipped with multi-energy power-trains and their accessories can operate by battery or by connection to the power grid.

High levels of interoperability are made possible by true local partner-ships: commercial and industrial fabric or lo-gistics service provider and public authority, the freight delivery skills of which are proven. The extended development of ICTs and the Inter-net of Things also applies to infrastructures and mobile applications. This transport interoper-ability essentially leads to:• better filled vehicles, better chosen ac-

cording to real orders, logistics plans deter-mined on a case by case basis,

• passing from a heavy mode to a lighter mode as late as possible in the delivery process, as fast as possible and as simply as possible,

• the customer meeting with the goods in the best location possible taking into consideration the economic and environmen-tal restrictions and by managing ungrouping spaces and real-time delivery operations,

• the simultaneous consideration of inverse flows (return of goods, unsold goods) via regrouping spaces.

The implementation of homogeneous low emission zones nationwide then through-out the European Union, leads to vehicle re-placements and to their specialisation according to their use. Multinational companies and public authorities obtain homogeneous environmental efficiency criteria in the European Union then throughout the world’s major metropolises.


Information technology is devel-oped in the following areas: • infrastructures:

– grouping and ungrouping spaces, delivery: knowledge of free spaces, real-time tariff adjustment,

– road system: knowledge of traffic, real-time tariff adjustment for certain roads or access to certain parts of the region (adaptation to supply/demand),

– in very dense areas, individuals could also:– offer free spaces for short-term rental

(currently exists in Japan),– take part in the arbitration process for

managing a delivery zone.• energy: knowledge of petrol stations, tariffs,

smart charging assistance for rechargeable electric and hybrid vehicles,

• vehicles: real-time information, preventive maintenance, eco-driving aid, route planning.

As in the previous vision, traceability and ICTs lead to the precise estimation of CO2 emissions and pollution, and to setting up indexed tax measures on the real environmental damage caused and therefore act on breaking down transport modes. Consumers choose their products and prioritise slow delivery modes.


This is similar to that described in the previous vision.

Delivery solutions

As in the previous vision, ever smaller 2- or 4-wheeled vehicles multiply, with their associated management and safety diffi-culties. Town authorities look to regroup flows at city outskirts, without success.

The level of specialisation of deliveries and logistics plans is accentuated. For the last metres, human or electric drive devel-ops on a global scale as per the rickshaws mod-el (following the example of the Cargocyle de La Petite Reine in France, image provided below) and trucks available on delivery sites which be-come true miniature urban logistics platforms. In certain cases, outside of delivery hours, this

urban space changes use and is transformed into a car park or energy station.

As in vision 1, new delivery locations are being developed due to the progress made by ICTs, the IoT and the development of mobile ap-plications, whereas new professions and services are created for heavy products. Urbanism rules require the integration of a space connected to goods flows in the very design of a building.

Consequences

The environmental criteria are reached. Public policies use restric-tive or limiting tools and develop inno-vative partnerships with industrial and commercial stakeholders for the better use of existing modes and urban group-ing and ungrouping spaces. As in the previous vision, real-use emission estimations lead to a full pollution and carbon count for the products delivered and multina-tional companies progressively develop autarkic energies with most taxes progressively taking into account real mobility. Multina-tional companies steer urban logis-tics and know the products consumed by citi-zens in addition to their carbon footprint, which is not accepted by everyone.

Vision 3: Mutualised transport

General description

Taking into account the complex restrictions specific to each profession and to each prod-uct, the specialisation of vehicles and logistics plans is the only solution. Ac-cess to mutualised transport calling for shared vehicles leads to a high level of spe-cialisation throughout the world. Certain com-panies therefore only deliver a single type of product to several customers in several regions or cities throughout the world. Non-specialist multinational companies therefore become more or less reliant on international or national specialists.

As in the previous visions, vehicles improve in terms of energy efficiency, pollution emissions and noise emissions at almost constant costs. They are equipped with multi-energy pow-

ertrains and their accessories can operate by battery or by connection to the power grid.

Vehicles, and therefore flows, are “shareable”, which enables their load and en-vironmental efficiency to be optimised, however complicates the accounting and delivery opera-tions. Town authorities manage to impose a cer-tain level of regrouped flows at city outskirts.

Low emission zones are progressive-ly extended on a global scale in all me-tropolises. Environmental efficiency criteria are homogenised in the European Union then throughout the world’s major metropolises.


ICTs and the IoT again lead to the continuous real-time management of product flows, vehicle flows, logistics plans and urban delivery zones. The low level of interoperability implies deliv-ery to the end customer without any mode transfer, which leads to the use of rather heavy modes for economic reasons. Return circuits are more easily integrated as the vehicle is shared. This public transport-type operation involves a high level of standardisation of outer packages and pallets for easing multiple vehicle loading and unloading operations and openings on “all sides” of the vehicle. In extreme cases, the management of freight being loaded and unloaded can take place in real-time and the free space within the vehicle can there-fore lead to route modifications to look for unsold products or certain wastes which have been “shaped” to ease transport, and finally to the sale of its available volume or weight to the highest bidder.

Information technology is being de-veloped in a similar manner to that described in vision 1 with the difference being that the management processes and information con-cerning delivery zones are optimised.

In certain cases, public passenger trans-port is also integrated into these new plans. Ungrouping takes place in multimodal train stations, outside of normal operating hours, heavy PT lodes are used to transport freight, raising questions regarding responsibility, invoicing and investment profitability. In other cases, in order to pay less, goods can be col-lected in PT terminals.


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As in the two previous visions, traceability and ICTs lead to the precise estima-tion of CO2 emissions and pollution. Consumers choose their products and pri-oritise slow or grouped delivery modes.


This is similar to that described in the two previous visions with penalty systems also integrating notions of minimum fill and on the other hand with rewards that take into ac-count maximum fill.

Delivery solutions

As in the two previous visions, ever smaller 2- or 4-wheeled vehicles multiply, with their associated management and safety difficul-ties. In certain cases, mobile applications or new delivery operators appear to manage purchases and deliveries on behalf of individuals. Delivery tariffs increase, causing more people to look into sharing possibilities, and which now significantly depend on delivery deadlines. In parallel, independent delivery modes are being developed for economic reasons: carpooling for packages, consumer grouping for direct deliveries from warehouses, etc.

As in vision 2, the level of specialisation of deliveries and logistics plans is ac-centuated and for the last metres, hu-man or electric drive is developed on a global scale.

As in the two previous visions, new delivery locations are developed due to the progress made by ICTs, the IoT and the development of mobile applications, whereas new professions and services are created for heavy products.

Consequences

As in vision 1, the environmental crite-ria are difficult to comply with. Pub-lic policies use restrictive or limiting tools. Real-use emission estimations lead to a full pollution and carbon count for the products delivered. Using this data, re-gional authorities strengthen the indexed tax measures on the real environmental damage caused (mileage tax, carbon tax,

etc.) and therefore act on breaking down trans-port modes. Multinational companies progressively develop autarkic energies. Several stakeholders share logistics. Most taxes progres-sively take into account real mobility.

Vision 4: Mutualised multimodal transport

General description

As in vision 3, shared vehicles and logis-tics plans are extremely specialised on a global scale. Non-specialist multina-tional companies therefore become more or less reliant on international or national specialists. A certain balance appears be-tween specialists and generalists. These logistics plans adapt to the most restrictive environ-ments, while keeping high levels of environmen-tal efficiency and delivering to low-density areas by selecting the most suitable tools.

As in the previous visions, vehicles im-prove in terms of energy efficiency, pollution emissions and noise emissions at almost con-stant costs. They are equipped with multi-energy powertrains and their accessories can operate by battery or by connection to the power grid. ICTs enable the remote management of maintenance operations and the sharing of operating costs between multiple users according to the real use of the products transported.

As in vision 2, high levels of interoper-ability are made possible by true local partnerships and by the extended devel-opment of ICTs and the IoT to infrastructures and mobile applications. The consequences are described in the corresponding paragraph. Sim-ilarly, low emission zones are progressively implemented throughout the European union and environmental efficiency crite-ria are homogenised in the European union, then throughout the world’s major me-tropolises.


As in vision 3, ICTs and the IoT lead to the continuous real-time management of product flows, vehicle flows, logistics plans

and urban delivery zones, with easily integrated return circuits and operation modes sim-ilar to that of public transport.

Information technology is devel-oped in a similar manner to that described in vision 2.

As in the previous visions, traceability and ICTs lead to the precise estimation of CO2 emissions and pollution. Using this data, regional authorities strengthen the indexed tax measures on the real environmental damage caused (mile-age tax, carbon tax, etc.) and therefore act on breaking down transport modes. Consum-ers choose their products and prioritise slow or grouped delivery modes or undertake part of the journey themselves.


This is similar to that described in visions 1 and 2.

Delivery solutions

As in vision 3, ever smaller 2- or 4- wheeled vehicles multiply, mobile applications or new delivery opera-tors appear to manage purchases and deliv-eries on behalf of individuals, and independent and mutualised delivery modes are developed for economic reasons. The level of speciali-sation of deliveries and logistics plans is accentuated and for the last metres, human or electric drive is developed on a global scale.

As in the previous visions, new delivery lo-cations are developed due to the progress made by ICTs, the IoT and the development of mobile applications, whereas new professions and services are created for heavy products. New mobile commerce services, ac-cording to the time of year, appear (and dis-appear) as per the real customer density. All solutions aiming at uncoupling deliv-eries and customer presence are ex-plored: box, potentially at a controlled tem-perature, shared or not shared, relay point, etc.

In certain cases, public passenger trans-port is also integrated into these new plans. Given that ungrouping operations take

place in multimodal train stations, outside of normal operating hours, heavy PT modes are used to transport freight. Progressively, modes become mixed containing both passengers and freight, which has many consequences:• essential but complex partnerships be-

tween the public authorities, service provid-ers and companies, requiring new legal sta-tuses and new driving modes,

• the taking into account of objects and networks in the design phase, which must now connect different areas together,

• transit zones (including train stations) play a major role and structure cities,

• ICTs enable people and goods to meet in real-time,

• in certain cases, self-service vehicles are also used outside of normal operating hours for freight delivery,

• in other cases, in order to pay less, goods can be collected in PT terminals.

Consequences

As in vision 2, the environmental criteria are reached. Public policies use restrictive or limiting tools and develop innova-tive partnerships with industrial and commercial stakeholders for the better use of existing modes and urban grouping and ungrouping spaces. Real-use emission estima-tions lead to a full pollution and carbon count for the products delivered. Multinational companies progressively develop autarkic energies. Most taxes progres-sively take into account real mobility.

Innovative methods have been de-veloped to involve citizens in debates concerning freight transport within cities. This leads to collectively choosing the location of a delivery zone, its management, its urban integration and last mile delivery modes. In a more general manner, the sharing of pub-lic space requires new integrated ap-proaches both for freight and pas-senger transport.

Obstacles identified for freight mobility

The main obstacles identified by the experts are presented below, classed according to three categories (technological, organisational or so-cio-economic in nature) and four areas (vehi-cles, information, infrastructures and energy).

Technological obstacles:

a. Lack of information systems dedicated to transport and freight delivery enabling its optimisation, the optimal management of public space (communicating infrastructure) and increased business efficiency.

b. Difficulties in distributing vehicles (cars, two-wheeled vehicles) designed for freight trans-port and delivery, adapted to suit the dif-ferent regions and professions, at acceptable costs, integrating alternative energy sources.

Organisational obstacles:

c. Regulation weaknesses, with high levels of discrepancy, difficulties in ensuring compli-ance for freight transport and delivery in France and in Europe.

d. Impossibility of learning and understanding multimodal mobility means according to the time of year, the modes and infrastructures available, the weather and accidents, and therefore of predicting the latter.

e. Furthermore, the impossibility of managing and optimising multimodal mobility means in a region, while also considering the major role played by infrastructures such as deliv-ery zones, urban logistics areas, road distri-bution, delivery regulations and associated

tariffs. Lack of co-ordinated management between freight mobility and passenger mo-bility (synergy, co-management, co-invest-ment), lack of activity for developing spaces for freight delivery.

f. Difficulties in inserting new categories of small interoperable city vehicles (2- to 4-wheeled vehicles) into traffic without any safety issues, possibly “linkable” with heavy modes, despite the energy and environmental benefits,

g. Difficulties in assembling innovative projects in terms of freight transport and delivery according to the different regions and pro-fessions, given the level of diversity of the stakeholders required and the specific rela-tionships between carriers and loaders, and in gathering various feedback to provide to the economic stakeholders and public au-thorities.

Socio-economic obstacles:

h. Lack of research projects on the socio-econ-omy of innovation based on a science of uses including the multitude of stakeholders and taking into account their heterogeneity (citizens, industries of all sizes and regions) aiming at defining the success conditions for efficient freight transport and delivery systems, economic models and better road sharing.

i. Poor sharing of the best mobility practices ac-cording to regions and professions through-out the European Union.

j. Legal, economic and institutional barriers in-volving the sharing of public data with regard to privacy protection.

Summary

Vehicle Energy Infrastructure Information

Technology b b b a

Organisational/Regulator f, g g f, g c, d, e

Socio-economy h, i h, i h, i h, i, j


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6 Research priorities for passenger and freight mobility

The research themes that must be prioritised according to the group of experts have been broken down into three categories: technologi-cal, socio-economic and organisational. They in-volve both passenger and freight mobility.

Technological research priorities

a. Designing and developing mobility aid sys-tems (personal travel assistant) enabling ac-cess at any time and in any place to all public data connected to all passenger transport modes, traffic, parking and to certain private data while complying with privacy protec-tion rules, for understanding and using the best travel means, their efficiency and their costs. For freight, mobility aid systems more particularly relate to traffic, parking, delivery zones and urban logistics areas, enabling the controlled optimisation of logistics opera-tions.

b. Designing and developing vehicles (cars, 2 to 3-wheeled vehicles) designed for mobility services (passengers and freight) optimised for each use, integrating alternative energy sources, adapted to suit new economic mod-els and new maintenance modes, compatible with PTAs. This research priority could be conducted within the scope of the side pro-gramme on low-carbon vehicles, for which this forms a research topic in its own right.

Organisational research priorities

c. Proposing, by using the platform (refer to i), research projects on the socio-economy of innovation based on a science of uses includ-ing citizens, industries and regions, and aiming at defining the success conditions for mobil-ity services (passengers and freight), the new vehicle uses included in services, their social acceptance, economic models and better road sharing, including delivery zones. The use of existing living labs18 in France must be studied.

d. Exchanging the best mobility practices ac-cording to regions and professions through-out the European Union, in addition to the main platform deliverables. Undertaking ac-tions aiming at homogenising the different regulations (passengers and freight) slowing down the sharing of these best practices.

e. Experimenting with advanced multimo-dalities, in particular by making available all public data connected to public transport and certain private transport modes, while complying with privacy protection rules. The participation of the AFIMB (French Multi-modal and Ticketing Information Agency) is required in this area.

f. Proposing new governance modes for the transport organisation authorities to enable them to better understand its uses (refer to g.), to better manage the entire mobility sys-tem (passengers and freight) while being ca-pable of simultaneously managing infrastruc-tures such as car parks, delivery zones, urban logistics areas, road distribution and the influ-ence of certain associated tariffs (also refer to j.). Experimenting with legal innovations to overcome these restrictions and to reach the national objectives (in particular for GHG and pollution) on a local scale.

Socio-economic research priorities

g. Learning and understanding the different multimodal mobility means (passengers and freight) according to the time of year, the modes and infrastructures available, the weather and accidents, and therefore of bet-ter predicting and organising the latter.

h. Experimenting with new categories of small interoperable city vehicles (2- to 4-wheeled vehicles) under real-use conditions, possibly “linkable” with heavy modes under real-use conditions in traffic by quantifying the safety issues and the energy and environmental benefits. Simultaneously quantifying the dis-advantages and risks connected to the mul-tiplicity of different vehicle types.

18. Launched in 2006 by the European Community, the Living Labs group together public stakeholders, businesses, associations and individuals, with the purpose of a full-size test for new services, tools or uses, more particularly connected to information technology.


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i. Developing one or several collaboration platforms for assembling innovative projects in terms of mobility (passenger and freight) grouping together the different stakeholders required and gathering various feedback to provide to the economic stakeholders and public authorities, ensuring demonstrator re-producibility.

j. Experimenting with new economic models for mobility services for reaching a threshold effect and proposing clear and competitive

mobility packages “better” than the standard economic model, for different regional den-sities and typologies. The packages and ser-vices must also be studied and adapted to suit the different citizen needs (generation ef-fect, socio-professional category, regions, etc.). Experimenting with new public/private part-nerships for overcoming obstacles involving the economy, land development and social equity.

Collaborative platform: industries, local authorities, citizens

Platform:guide / chart

for mounting a project

Transversal programmesEV infrastructure,sustainable city,

smart grid,low-carbon vehicle

Transport authoritiesGuide,

new mode of governance

R&DScience of uses,

living lab, ICT, cybercar,real-time knowledge on mobility

EU

(i) (a, b, c, e, f, h, j)

(g)

DemonstratorsExperiments

LearnGather

7 Research demonstrator and experimentation needsThe visions drawn up in this roadmap identify the technological, organisational and socio-eco-nomic obstacles to be overcome in order to commit to a transition towards new mobility means for freight and passengers. They also identify the functions that must be fulfilled by an efficient mobility system. These functions are the basis of the research demonstrator and ex-perimentation needs.

The objective is to develop and test technolo-gies, systems or services capable of increasing the efficiency of the mobility system (for pas-sengers and freight): more economic, faster, more efficient from an energy and environ-mental point of view, better exploiting the po-tential of the different modes of transport (in particular public transport).

The field of technical innovation is large and involves vehicles (category, fuel), infrastructures (sharing and road development), the informa-tion system (software, multimodal information databases) and the tariff system (ticketing), etc. Demonstrators and experiments could com-bine all or part of the innovations making up part of the fields described hereinafter. In all cases, they must be based on the demonstration or experimentation of an innovative mobility service. Particular attention shall be paid to projects built according to a multi-criteria based logic, integrating several fields (technologies, ticketing and governance for example) and which pro-pose global actions for a given region:• demonstrators and experiment-

ing with new alternative services to privately owned cars or road freight transport. There is a wide range of existing services from cycling, carpooling, transport on demand and car sharing through to urban logistics areas. Experiments will aim at testing particularly innovative services (ser-vices can be grouped together) or at propos-ing adaptations of existing services or modes (light and heavy) in view of improving the in-terconnections made possible via ICTs;

• demonstrators and experimenting with new generations of informa-tion and communication technolo-

gies promoting the development of new forms of mobility, in particular connecting dif-ferent services together and easing logistics and transport operations. These technologies must provide the user with information in real-time on the different modes of transport or services available (location, cost, efficiency, payment means), traffic conditions, available parking spaces, nearby delivery zones or ur-ban logistics areas and river, rail and airport exchange zones. They must be interoperable and be capable of being developed on any mobile or fixed support. This therefore in-volves developing tools to help you choose the best possible means of travel or the best possible logistics organisation for freight de-livery in cities, also integrating travel-free so-lutions (telecommuting, telecentres, online purchases). These developments must dem-onstrate their capacity to equal or surpass existing systems.

Experiments should be based on the avail-ability of data on public transport and certain modes of private transport. The use of trans-port modes promoting free access to data shall be sought after. Coordination with the AFIMB must be sought after in this area, in addition to links to the French National Fund for the Digital Society (FSN);

These experiments may lead to the develop-ment of models (in particular intended for local authorities) enabling the improved forecasting and therefore organisation of daily passenger and freight mobility means. The parameters to be considered are flows, modal distribu-tion, local regulations on urban deliveries, fac-tors influencing its development (time period, weather, incidents, accidents, strikes, tariff sys-tems, infrastructures, travel reasons, location of activities and housing, use profiles, accessibility, connectivity to digital flows and connected ser-vices, comfort, availability and land costs, etc.). These models must be easy to distribute (in-stallation costs and adapted use, easy adoption), transparent, open, easy to update, capable of evolving and integrating new factors over time (modularity) according to the progress made in terms of knowledge;

• demonstrators and experimenting with adapting existing vehicles (light and heavy, from 2- to 4-wheeled vehicles, en-gine vehicles, guided vehicles), designed to ease the passage from one mode to another or the transport of one vehicle in another. The following must be quantified: security is-sues, energy, environmental and social bene-fits, disadvantages and risks connected to the multiplicity of different vehicle types;

• demonstrators and experimenting with innovative systems integrat-ing communicating infrastructures in an urban environment. These sys-tems shall integrate sensors, data fusion and acquisition systems, information consolidation and transfer systems to mobile users (passen-gers and freight) or infrastructure operators. They shall enable the generation of enriched, increased and readable information flows for smart, more secure and low GHG-emitting mobility. They shall lead to improved ac-tive and predictive maintenance operations for the infrastructure at an acceptable cost for the different users. The use of transport modes promoting free access to data shall be sought after. The financial involvement of local authorities as operators of communicating infrastructures shall be sought after;

• experimenting with new tariff or financing devices, adapted to suit the development of an integrated mobility sys-tem. Mobility packages must be transpar-ent, competitive, take into account regional density and typology, be adapted to suit the different citizen categories by studying in an operational manner the different types of behaviour and their impact on the choices made (generation effect, insecurity, socio-professional category). These experiments could consider transforming the classic eco-nomic model and testing new tariff forms for mobility services (purchase of a small city ve-hicle with the option of occasionally renting a hatchback, purchase of a public transport card or subscription including different ser-vices and in particular the possibility of using an individual vehicle if required, etc.);

• the experimentation of new pub-lic/private partnerships prefig-uring new modes of governance enabling transport organisation authorities

to develop an optimised mobility system: the co-management of certain infrastructure tariff systems with their private stakeholders, the dynamic management of parking tariffs, delivery zones and urban logistics areas, the dynamic sharing of roads and improving the connection between urban and non-urban public transport, etc. The possibility must be considered, as granted by French law, of test-ing in some regions new forms of governance deviating from the standard regulations.

Particular attention shall be paid to examining the different measures working towards ho-mogenising the European regulations and regu-latory instruments (for passengers and freight) with the aim of reducing the obstacles hinder-ing the spread of best practices. The cultural background and factors (characterised accord-ing to the different economic, social, geographic, historic and practical parameters, etc.) must be highlighted in a homogenous manner so as to compare practices.

Experiments could give rise to the develop-ment of one or several collaboration platforms, following the example of that considered in the Plan véhicule vert breton (Brittany green vehi-cle plan - refer to chapter 2). The objective of these platforms is to ease the creation of in-novative projects in terms of mobility by uniting the different stakeholders involved, from SMEs to multinational companies, to define the refer-ences and standards for validating and assess-ing systems and to gather knowledge. This also involves gathering various feedback in the long-term (via the CEIs: Sustainable City, Smart Grid, Load Infrastructure and Low-Carbon Vehicles), and ensuring the reproducibility of demonstra-tors in other regions. The means for gathering and transforming the knowledge acquired shall be explained.

The research demonstrators proposed must be based on the research priorities previously listed so as to fill one or more of these func-tions. They could be deployed on the different types of regions stipulated in chapter 3, while studying the possibilities of transferring options to other contexts.

Given the numerous functions and their links, the group of ex

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