model complementarity for integrated spatial planning (isp...
TRANSCRIPT
1 WWF Luc Hoffmann Institute
Andrea M. Bassi, Ph.D.CEO, KnowlEdge Srl and LIVES Theme 3 Lead
ACES, 11 December 2014
Model complementarity for
Integrated Spatial Planning (ISP)
KnowlEdge Srl
2 Luc Hoffmann Institute
Infrastructure is the physical components of interrelated
systems providing commodities and services essential to enable,
sustain, or enhance societal living conditions Fulmer, 2009.
THE CHALLENGE
How best to plan roads, railways, power, waste management, irrigation infrastructure in a context of climate change and equitable development?
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PoliciesInvestment
(e.g.,capitalinvestmentinREandEEfor
extracapacityandretrofits)
Mandatesandtargets(e.g.,REandEEstandards,deforestation
andreforestationtargets)
Subsidies(e.g.,feedintariffsforenergy,taxrebates,paymentsforecosystem
services)
Scenarios Climatechange,energyprices,conflicts,peakoil,worldeconomicgrowth,etc.
Structure
Socialsectors Economicsectors Environmentalsectors
Population
Education
Infrastructure(e.g.transport)
Employment
Incomedistribution
Production(GDP)
TechnologyHouseholdsaccounts
Governmentaccounts
Investment(publicandprivate)
Balanceandfinancing
GovernmentdebtBalanceofpayment
Internationaltrade
LandallocationanduseWaterdemandandsupply
Energydemandandsupply
(bysectorandenergysource)
GHGandotheremissions
(sourcesandsinks)Footprint
Society
Economy Environment
SCIENCE RESPONSEHolistic analysis take into account the drivers of social development and economic performance to reach sustainability
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Several tools and methods can be used to support the assessment of spatial developments:
1. Indicators and Data Frameworks
2. Spatial Planning Tools
3. Environmental Accounting Tools
4. Natural Capital Valuation Tools
5. Investment/Policy Evaluation Tools
6. Scenario Creation Tools
7. Scenario Forecasting Tools
TOOLS FOR ISP
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MANY ISOLATED TOOLS
• Energyefficiencyinvestment• Renewableenergyinvestment
• Thermalpowergenera oninvestmentInvestment
• Savingsonavoidedelectricityexpenditure• Savingsonavoidedcoalconsump onforpowergenera on
• Addi onalnetemploymentandincomegenerated
Avoidedexpenditureandaddedbenefits
• Savingsminusinvestments• Returnoninvestment
• Break-evenpointNetresults
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Spatial information on natural capital (with economic
valuation) and scenarios
InVEST
(Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and
Tradeoffs)
WAVES
(Wealth Accounting and the Valuation of Ecosystem
Services)
SDM
(System Dynamics Integrated Modeling)
Cross-sectoral and macro, projects the impacts of green economy policies
Accounting framework to capture the key
dimensions of development
THE SOLUTION: Tools Integration
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Policy evaluation makes use of the indicators identified
in the first two steps, to evaluate the effectiveness of the intervention and the emergence of unexpected
impacts and trends.
Policy formulation analysis focuses on
issues and opportunities and
on the broader advantages and
disadvantages of policy
implementation
Issues, and relative policy goals, can be of general nature, social,
economic and environmental
Decision making is based on the results of the policy
formulation stage, and should account for the forecasted impacts of
policy implementation on the environment, the
economy and overall well-being of the population.
Issue Identification and Agenda Setting
Policy Formulation
-Assessment
Decision MakingPolicy Implementation
Policy Monitoring and Evaluation
ADVANTAGES: Policy Cycle
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ADVANTAGES: Technical value addition
• Multi-stakeholder process, allows for the incorporation of indicators across sectors.
• Estimates social, economic and environmental impacts of action and inaction (internalizing externalities) through the endogenous calculation of cross-sectoral indicators.
• Incorporates of biophysical variables in the evaluation of the economic performance of the sectors, informing policy making.
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Road construction
agricultural land
employment
opportunities
Population
+
+
+
food demand
++
18 Luc Hoffmann Institute
Road construction
agricultural land
employment
opportunities
Population
water demand
+
+
+
+
food demand
++
19 Luc Hoffmann Institute
Road construction
agricultural land
employment
opportunities
water
availability
Population
water demand
+
+
+
-
+
+
food demand
++
20 Luc Hoffmann Institute
Road construction
agricultural land
employment
opportunities
water supply
water
availability
Population
water demand
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
food demand
++
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Road construction
Economic
attractiveness
agricultural land
employment
opportunities
water supply
water
availability
Population
water demand
+
+
+
-
+
+
++
food demand
++
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Road construction
Economic
attractiveness
Investments in
agriculture for export
agricultural land
employment
opportunities
water supply
water
availability
Population
water demand
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
++
food demand
++
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Road construction
Economic
attractiveness
Investments in
agriculture for export
agricultural land
use of chemical
fertilizers
employment
opportunities
water supply
water
availability
Population
water demand
+
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
++
food demand
++
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Road construction
Economic
attractiveness
Investments in
agriculture for export
agricultural land
agricultural
productivity
use of chemical
fertilizers
employment
opportunities
water supply
water
availability
Population
water demand
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
++
food demand
++
+
25 Luc Hoffmann Institute
Road construction
Economic
attractiveness
Investments in
agriculture for export
agricultural land
agricultural
productivity
Forest land
use of chemical
fertilizers
employment
opportunities
water supply
water
availability
Population
water demand
+
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
++
food demand
++
+
26 Luc Hoffmann Institute
Road construction
Economic
attractiveness
Investments in
agriculture for export
agricultural land
agricultural
productivity
Forest landForest ecosystem
services
use of chemical
fertilizers
employment
opportunities
water supply
water
availability
Population
water demand
+
+
-
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
++
food demand
++
+
+
27 Luc Hoffmann Institute
Road construction
Economic
attractiveness
Investments in
agriculture for export
agricultural land
agricultural
productivity
Forest landForest ecosystem
services
use of chemical
fertilizers
soil quality
employment
opportunities
water supply
water
availability
Population
water demand
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
++
food demand
++
+
+
28 Luc Hoffmann Institute
Road construction
Economic
attractiveness
Investments in
agriculture for export
agricultural land
agricultural
productivity
Forest landForest ecosystem
services
use of chemical
fertilizers
soil quality
employment
opportunities
water supply
water
availability
Population
water demand
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
++
food demand
++
+
+
29 Luc Hoffmann Institute
Road construction
Economic
attractiveness
Investments in
agriculture for export
agricultural land
agricultural
productivity
Forest landForest ecosystem
services
use of chemical
fertilizers
soil quality
employment
opportunities
water supply
water
availability
Population
water demand
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
Waterefficiency
-
Afforestation and
reforestation+
Ecological
agriculture
-
+
food demand
++
++
+
30 Luc Hoffmann Institute
Road construction
Economic
attractiveness
Investments in
agriculture for export
agricultural land
agricultural
productivity
Forest landForest ecosystem
services
use of chemical
fertilizers
soil quality
employment
opportunities
water supply
water
availability
Population
water demand
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
Waterefficiency
-
Afforestation and
reforestation+
Ecological
agriculture
-
+
food demand
++
++
+
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032
Time
AgricultureLand(km2)
NO-ROAD ROAD GreenEconomy-1 GreenEconomy-2
THE RESULTS
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green gdp
gdp
natural capital additions
+
consumption
demand of naturalresources
natural capital
+
+
natural capitalgrowth
+natural capitalextraction
natural capitaldepletion
natural capitalreductions
+
+
+
- +
ecosystemservices
productivity(tfp)
+
++
physical capital+investment depreciation
+
+
+ecologicalscarcity
-
-
human capital employedpopulation
job creation
+
retirement
publicexpenditure
health
education
human capitalgrowth
training
+
+
+
+
+
<human capitalgrowth>
+
privateprofits
+
+
+
wages
++
+
+
R
R
R
R
R
B
B
gdp of the poor
+
<gdp>+
THE MODEL
32 Luc Hoffmann Institute
upstreamsediment delivery
fine sediment(suspension)
sand and gradedsuspension
bedload (sand andgravel)
land clearingwater
diversions
+
-
dam construction(size/capacity)
-
precipitation
rainfall variability
temperature
groundwateruse
agriculture productivity
+-
fooddemand
foodproduction
agriculture
land
+
+
+
population
+ desired
agriculture land
-
+
fish catch
+
desired crop consumptionfrom local production
desired fish consumption
from local production
desired meat
consumption from localproduction
+
+
+
+
gdp/income
fish price (import)
crop price (import)
meat price (import)
+
desired fishcatch
+
+
fish stock
+
settlement
land
grazing land-
-
+
+
meat
production
cropproduction
++
food self sufficiency <food demand>-
+
fish migration-
-
fish breedingfish mortality
+
+
+
-
+electricity supply +
+
employment
+
+
-
constructionmaterials extraction -
+
sediment budget(transboundary
impacts)
electricitydemand
+
+
energy selfsufficiency
-
+
+
+
delta economic productivity(transboundary dimension)
+
<fish catch>
-
-
-
-
-
+
+
+
<precipitation>
-
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
R6
B6
food price+ ++
R7
dolphinpopulation
+
sustainable fishingpractices
++
tourism
+
<population>
+-
-
<agricultureproductivity>
-
road infrastructureinvestment
access to the ssk
+
+
33 Luc Hoffmann Institute
upstreamsediment delivery
fine sediment(suspension)
sand and gradedsuspension
bedload (sand andgravel)
land clearingwater
diversions
+
-
dam construction(size/capacity)
-
precipitation
rainfall variability
temperature
groundwateruse
agriculture productivity
+-
fooddemand
foodproduction
agriculture
land
+
+
+
population
+ desired
agriculture land
-
+
fish catch
+
desired crop consumptionfrom local production
desired fish consumption
from local production
desired meat
consumption from localproduction
+
+
+
+
gdp/income
fish price (import)
crop price (import)
meat price (import)
+
desired fishcatch
+
+
fish stock
+
settlement
land
grazing land-
-
+
+
meat
production
cropproduction
++
food self sufficiency <food demand>-
+
fish migration-
-
fish breedingfish mortality
+
+
+
-
+electricity supply +
+
employment
+
+
-
constructionmaterials extraction -
+
sediment budget(transboundary
impacts)
electricitydemand
+
+
energy selfsufficiency
-
+
+
+
delta economic productivity(transboundary dimension)
+
<fish catch>
-
-
-
-
-
+
+
+
<precipitation>
-
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
R6
B6
food price+ ++
R7
dolphinpopulation
+
sustainable fishingpractices
++
tourism
+
<population>
+-
-
<agricultureproductivity>
-
road infrastructureinvestment
access to the ssk
+
+
35 Luc Hoffmann Institute
RESEARCH PROJECT
Linked Indicators for Vital Ecosystem Services (LIVES)
To study FOOD ENERGY WATER (FEW) security, we work together in a collaborative research team.
36 Luc Hoffmann Institute
Thank you!
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