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MISO-AMEREN Modeling Process Improvement Initiative Sep 12, 2016

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Page 1: Model management discussionemmos.org/prevconf/2016/3.MISO AMEREN - EMMOS Presentation.pdf · EMS FTR DTS Market Planning • Duplicate efforts • Synchronization issues • Inconsistent

MISO-AMEREN Modeling Process Improvement

Initiative

Sep 12, 2016

Page 2: Model management discussionemmos.org/prevconf/2016/3.MISO AMEREN - EMMOS Presentation.pdf · EMS FTR DTS Market Planning • Duplicate efforts • Synchronization issues • Inconsistent

Agenda

• Industry wide challenges

• Common objectives

• AMEREN

– Introduction

– Key business drivers

– Near term goals

– Long term vision

• MISO

– Introduction

– Key business drivers

– Near term goals

– Long term vision

2

Page 3: Model management discussionemmos.org/prevconf/2016/3.MISO AMEREN - EMMOS Presentation.pdf · EMS FTR DTS Market Planning • Duplicate efforts • Synchronization issues • Inconsistent

Industry wide modeling challenges

3

Silos at Multiple levels

ISO/RTOs Utilities

Internal Silos

Technical Organizational

Multiple Tools/Systems

EMS FTR DTS Market Planning

• Duplicate efforts

• Synchronization issues

• Inconsistent solutions

• Difficult change management

• Multiple modeling practices &

processes

• Multiple users and maintainers

• Models are inherently different

• ISO – EMS, Planning, Market

• Utilities – EMS, Planning, Protection

• Transmission, Distribution

• Difficult model exchange

Page 4: Model management discussionemmos.org/prevconf/2016/3.MISO AMEREN - EMMOS Presentation.pdf · EMS FTR DTS Market Planning • Duplicate efforts • Synchronization issues • Inconsistent

Common objectives

4

• Model accuracy & consistency

• Compatible solution results

Improved Compliance

• Avoid duplication

• Shorter Modeling cycle

• Process automation

Improved Efficiency

• Standard based data exchanges

• Common and consistent APIs

Improved Integration

Page 5: Model management discussionemmos.org/prevconf/2016/3.MISO AMEREN - EMMOS Presentation.pdf · EMS FTR DTS Market Planning • Duplicate efforts • Synchronization issues • Inconsistent

AMEREN Modeling practices and plan

Page 6: Model management discussionemmos.org/prevconf/2016/3.MISO AMEREN - EMMOS Presentation.pdf · EMS FTR DTS Market Planning • Duplicate efforts • Synchronization issues • Inconsistent

Ameren - Introduction

6

Diversified regional electric and gas

utility serving 2.4 million electric and

933,000 gas customers over 64,000

square miles in Missouri and Illinois.

• Expect strong ~6.5% compound annual rate base

growth from 2015 through 2020

• Expect 5% to 8% compound annual EPS growth

from 2016 through 2020

Long-Term Total Return Outlook

2015 to 2020 Regulated

Infrastructure Rate Base

$7.1 $7.9

$2.4 $3.3 $1.2

$2.0 $12.1

$16.7

2015 2020E

($ B

illio

ns)

FERC-Regulated TransmissionAmeren Illinois Gas DeliveryAmeren Illinois Electric DeliveryAmeren Missouri

2

$1.4

$3.5

'15-'20E

20%

11%

6%

2%

6.5%

5-Yr Rate

Base CAGR

Page 7: Model management discussionemmos.org/prevconf/2016/3.MISO AMEREN - EMMOS Presentation.pdf · EMS FTR DTS Market Planning • Duplicate efforts • Synchronization issues • Inconsistent

Key Business Drivers

7

• 2.6M Customers => 10M managed resources

• New solar resource goes online every 83 sec

• Converged T/D/IT systems

View of the Future

• Competition

• Invest in the Grid

• Aging Infrastructure

• New Standards

• NERC Alert Projects

• Changing Generation Mix

• Security = Physical & Cyber

Corporate Strategy

• 2010 $25M in T / 2016 $800M in T

• Can’t do things the same old way

Improved Efficiency

Page 8: Model management discussionemmos.org/prevconf/2016/3.MISO AMEREN - EMMOS Presentation.pdf · EMS FTR DTS Market Planning • Duplicate efforts • Synchronization issues • Inconsistent

Near term objectives

8

• Terminology that translates across functions (planning, operations, market, protection, maintenance, financial) and across entities

Common Language

Shared Commitment to Dialogue

• Standards-based (CIM) databases and exchange formats

• Automation (APIs)

One Version of the Truth

Page 9: Model management discussionemmos.org/prevconf/2016/3.MISO AMEREN - EMMOS Presentation.pdf · EMS FTR DTS Market Planning • Duplicate efforts • Synchronization issues • Inconsistent

Long term vision

9

• Cloud-based

• Apps (i.e. models)

• OS

• High Availability (i.e. 100%) - Backups

• Auto-detection of new devices

• Security

iNMM

• Systems and processes – think new devices every sec

Vertical Scalability

• 95+% of display work created by AI

• Validation (connectivity, ratings, etc.)

• Prediction – what will the system look like next hour, tomorrow, next month, next year?

Artificial Intelligence

• DLMPs (any point where two or more customers can transact will be a market)

Transactive Energy

Page 10: Model management discussionemmos.org/prevconf/2016/3.MISO AMEREN - EMMOS Presentation.pdf · EMS FTR DTS Market Planning • Duplicate efforts • Synchronization issues • Inconsistent

MISO Modeling practices and plan

Page 11: Model management discussionemmos.org/prevconf/2016/3.MISO AMEREN - EMMOS Presentation.pdf · EMS FTR DTS Market Planning • Duplicate efforts • Synchronization issues • Inconsistent

MISO - Introduction

11

• Generation • 175,436 MW (market)

• 200,906 MW (reliability)

• Load • 126,337 MW (market)

• 132,893 MW (reliability)

• 65,757 miles of Transmission

• $20.3 billion in annual gross market

charges (2013)

• 400 Market Participants serving over 42

million people

• EMS Model

• Stations ~29000

• Network Buses ~44000

• Generating units ~6500

• Loads ~37000

• Line Segments ~42000

• SCADA points ~290000

Page 12: Model management discussionemmos.org/prevconf/2016/3.MISO AMEREN - EMMOS Presentation.pdf · EMS FTR DTS Market Planning • Duplicate efforts • Synchronization issues • Inconsistent

Key Business Drivers

12

• Steady-State and Dynamic System Model Validation

• Improve operations and planning models accuracy and consistency

• Compatible solution results across multiple functional areas

Ensure Compliance

• Shorten modeling cycle

• Process automation – Expedited and reliable process flow

• Standardize model data submission and exchange

Improve Stakeholder Value

• Planning moving towards node-breaker model

• Coordinated data model formats

• Distributed Energy Resources

• Standard based common and consistent APIs

Capitalize on Technological Advancements

Page 13: Model management discussionemmos.org/prevconf/2016/3.MISO AMEREN - EMMOS Presentation.pdf · EMS FTR DTS Market Planning • Duplicate efforts • Synchronization issues • Inconsistent

Near term objectives

13

Process review

• Engage model dependent upstream and downstream systems for process requirements and timing to reduce cycle time

Stakeholder Outreach

• Engage Stakeholder community on model building process and timing

Industry Engagement

• Engage Neighboring RC community on data exchange timing and requirements

Standardize Input

• Standardize Model Exchange format

Page 14: Model management discussionemmos.org/prevconf/2016/3.MISO AMEREN - EMMOS Presentation.pdf · EMS FTR DTS Market Planning • Duplicate efforts • Synchronization issues • Inconsistent

Long term vision

14

Desired State

Customer

Inputs

Centralized

Model

Management

Customer

Inputs

TO 1

TO 2

TO n

External Entity Needs

MP 1

MP 2

MP n

Planning

Studies

Network

Apps

Market

Apps

Current State

Planning

Bus Branch

TO 1

TO 2

TO n

External Entity Needs

Operations

Node Breaker

Various data

formats

MP 1

MP 2

MP n Markets

Asset

Ownership

Manual

Collection and

Translation

Standardized

Input Format

Standardized

Translation

Inadequate integration

across Planning,

Operations, and Markets

Automated

Validation

Inputs integrated

across all models

Page 15: Model management discussionemmos.org/prevconf/2016/3.MISO AMEREN - EMMOS Presentation.pdf · EMS FTR DTS Market Planning • Duplicate efforts • Synchronization issues • Inconsistent

Thank you