model management discussionemmos.org/prevconf/2016/3.miso ameren - emmos presentation.pdf · ems...
TRANSCRIPT
MISO-AMEREN Modeling Process Improvement
Initiative
Sep 12, 2016
Agenda
• Industry wide challenges
• Common objectives
• AMEREN
– Introduction
– Key business drivers
– Near term goals
– Long term vision
• MISO
– Introduction
– Key business drivers
– Near term goals
– Long term vision
2
Industry wide modeling challenges
3
Silos at Multiple levels
ISO/RTOs Utilities
Internal Silos
Technical Organizational
Multiple Tools/Systems
EMS FTR DTS Market Planning
• Duplicate efforts
• Synchronization issues
• Inconsistent solutions
• Difficult change management
• Multiple modeling practices &
processes
• Multiple users and maintainers
• Models are inherently different
• ISO – EMS, Planning, Market
• Utilities – EMS, Planning, Protection
• Transmission, Distribution
• Difficult model exchange
Common objectives
4
• Model accuracy & consistency
• Compatible solution results
Improved Compliance
• Avoid duplication
• Shorter Modeling cycle
• Process automation
Improved Efficiency
• Standard based data exchanges
• Common and consistent APIs
Improved Integration
AMEREN Modeling practices and plan
Ameren - Introduction
6
Diversified regional electric and gas
utility serving 2.4 million electric and
933,000 gas customers over 64,000
square miles in Missouri and Illinois.
• Expect strong ~6.5% compound annual rate base
growth from 2015 through 2020
• Expect 5% to 8% compound annual EPS growth
from 2016 through 2020
Long-Term Total Return Outlook
2015 to 2020 Regulated
Infrastructure Rate Base
$7.1 $7.9
$2.4 $3.3 $1.2
$2.0 $12.1
$16.7
2015 2020E
($ B
illio
ns)
FERC-Regulated TransmissionAmeren Illinois Gas DeliveryAmeren Illinois Electric DeliveryAmeren Missouri
2
$1.4
$3.5
'15-'20E
20%
11%
6%
2%
6.5%
5-Yr Rate
Base CAGR
Key Business Drivers
7
• 2.6M Customers => 10M managed resources
• New solar resource goes online every 83 sec
• Converged T/D/IT systems
View of the Future
• Competition
• Invest in the Grid
• Aging Infrastructure
• New Standards
• NERC Alert Projects
• Changing Generation Mix
• Security = Physical & Cyber
Corporate Strategy
• 2010 $25M in T / 2016 $800M in T
• Can’t do things the same old way
Improved Efficiency
Near term objectives
8
• Terminology that translates across functions (planning, operations, market, protection, maintenance, financial) and across entities
Common Language
Shared Commitment to Dialogue
• Standards-based (CIM) databases and exchange formats
• Automation (APIs)
One Version of the Truth
Long term vision
9
• Cloud-based
• Apps (i.e. models)
• OS
• High Availability (i.e. 100%) - Backups
• Auto-detection of new devices
• Security
iNMM
• Systems and processes – think new devices every sec
Vertical Scalability
• 95+% of display work created by AI
• Validation (connectivity, ratings, etc.)
• Prediction – what will the system look like next hour, tomorrow, next month, next year?
Artificial Intelligence
• DLMPs (any point where two or more customers can transact will be a market)
Transactive Energy
MISO Modeling practices and plan
MISO - Introduction
11
• Generation • 175,436 MW (market)
• 200,906 MW (reliability)
• Load • 126,337 MW (market)
• 132,893 MW (reliability)
• 65,757 miles of Transmission
• $20.3 billion in annual gross market
charges (2013)
• 400 Market Participants serving over 42
million people
• EMS Model
• Stations ~29000
• Network Buses ~44000
• Generating units ~6500
• Loads ~37000
• Line Segments ~42000
• SCADA points ~290000
Key Business Drivers
12
• Steady-State and Dynamic System Model Validation
• Improve operations and planning models accuracy and consistency
• Compatible solution results across multiple functional areas
Ensure Compliance
• Shorten modeling cycle
• Process automation – Expedited and reliable process flow
• Standardize model data submission and exchange
Improve Stakeholder Value
• Planning moving towards node-breaker model
• Coordinated data model formats
• Distributed Energy Resources
• Standard based common and consistent APIs
Capitalize on Technological Advancements
Near term objectives
13
Process review
• Engage model dependent upstream and downstream systems for process requirements and timing to reduce cycle time
Stakeholder Outreach
• Engage Stakeholder community on model building process and timing
Industry Engagement
• Engage Neighboring RC community on data exchange timing and requirements
Standardize Input
• Standardize Model Exchange format
Long term vision
14
Desired State
Customer
Inputs
Centralized
Model
Management
Customer
Inputs
TO 1
TO 2
TO n
External Entity Needs
MP 1
MP 2
MP n
Planning
Studies
Network
Apps
Market
Apps
Current State
Planning
Bus Branch
TO 1
TO 2
TO n
External Entity Needs
Operations
Node Breaker
Various data
formats
MP 1
MP 2
MP n Markets
Asset
Ownership
Manual
Collection and
Translation
Standardized
Input Format
Standardized
Translation
Inadequate integration
across Planning,
Operations, and Markets
Automated
Validation
Inputs integrated
across all models
Thank you