model performance in simulating luz adriana gómez, carlos ... · luz adriana gómez, carlos d....
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Model performance in simulating the Global Monsoon:
Skill evolution across CMIP generations
Contact: [email protected]
Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster
![Page 2: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Global Monsoon
African Monsoon
Asian-Australian Monsoon
American Monsoon
Webster, 1987Trenberth et al., 2000
Wang and Ding, 2006, 2008Liu et al. 2009
Wang et al., 2017
![Page 3: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Global MonsoonFeatures
Seasonal Patterns GM Domain
Dominant modes of annual and interannual variation
Wang and Ding, 2006, 2008Wang et al. 2011
![Page 4: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Performance Metrics ComparisonEvaluation Criteria
Seasonal Patterns
Annual variation
Inter-annual variation
Global Monsoon Domain
Pattern Correlation
Coefficient (PCC)
Normalized root mean square
error (NRMSE)
Accuracy metrics
21 CMIP3
21 CMIP5
20 CMIP6
Improvement
No-significant Improvement
![Page 5: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Global climate models used in the study
# models by country - CMIP3
Horizontal resolution1.1 - 5 degrees
22CMIP3
BCCR-BCM2.0CGCM3.1CGCM3.1-t63CNRM-CM3CSIRO-MK3.0CSIRO-MK3.5GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.1GISS-AOMGISS-MODEL-E-HGISS-MODEL-E-RIAP-FGOALS1.0gINGV-ECHAM4INMCM3.0IPSL-CM4MIROC3.2-HIRESMPI-ECHAM5MRI-CGCM2.3.2ANCAR-CCSM3.0NCAR-PCM1UKMO-HADCM3UKMO-HADGEM1
![Page 6: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
# models by country - CMIP5
Horizontal resolution0.8 - 5.6 degrees
Global climate models used in the study
22CMIP5
ACCESS1.3CMCC-CESMCMCC-CMSCMCC-CMCNRM-CM5.2CNRM-CM5CSIRO-Mk3.6.0CSIRO-Mk3L-1.2CanCM4CanESM2GISS-E2-H-CCGISS-E2-R-CCHadCM3HadGEM2-AOHadGEM2-ESINMCM4IPSL-CM5A-LRIPSL-CM5A-MRMIROC5MPI-ESM-LRNorESM1-MENorESM1-M
![Page 7: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
# models by country - CMIP6
Horizontal resolution0.7 - 2.8 degrees
Global climate models used in the study
21CMIP6
BCC-CSM2-MRBCC-ESM1CAMS-CSM1.0CESM2CNRM-CM6.1CNRM-ESM2.1CanESM5E3SM-1.0EC-Earth3-VegEC-Earth3GFDL-ESM4GISS-E2-1-GGISS-E2-1-HHadGEM3-GC31-LLINM-CM5.0IPSL-CM6A-LRMIROC-ES2LMIROC6MRI-ESM2.0SAM0-UNICONUKESM1.0-LL
![Page 8: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
22CMIP3
BCCR-BCM2.0CGCM3.1CGCM3.1-t63CNRM-CM3CSIRO-MK3.0CSIRO-MK3.5GFDL-CM2.0GFDL-CM2.1GISS-AOMGISS-MODEL-E-HGISS-MODEL-E-RIAP-FGOALS1.0gINGV-ECHAM4INMCM3.0IPSL-CM4MIROC3.2-HIRESMPI-ECHAM5MRI-CGCM2.3.2ANCAR-CCSM3.0NCAR-PCM1UKMO-HADCM3UKMO-HADGEM1
22CMIP5
ACCESS1.3CMCC-CESMCMCC-CMSCMCC-CMCNRM-CM5.2CNRM-CM5CSIRO-Mk3.6.0CSIRO-Mk3L-1.2CanCM4CanESM2GISS-E2-H-CCGISS-E2-R-CCHadCM3HadGEM2-AOHadGEM2-ESINMCM4IPSL-CM5A-LRIPSL-CM5A-MRMIROC5MPI-ESM-LRNorESM1-MENorESM1-M
21CMIP6
BCC-CSM2-MRBCC-ESM1CAMS-CSM1.0CESM2CNRM-CM6.1CNRM-ESM2.1CanESM5E3SM-1.0EC-Earth3-VegEC-Earth3GFDL-ESM4GISS-E2-1-GGISS-E2-1-HHadGEM3-GC31-LLINM-CM5.0IPSL-CM6A-LRMIROC-ES2LMIROC6MRI-ESM2.0SAM0-UNICONUKESM1.0-LL
# models by country - TOTAL
Global climate models used in the study
![Page 9: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Seasonal patterns
Precipitation (colors)Surface winds 850hPa
(vectors)
![Page 10: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Precipitation Surface WindsHigh magnitude errors remain for CMIP6 models
NRM
SE:
P
CC:
Mag
nitu
de
S
patia
l Pat
tern
s
![Page 11: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Precipitation Surface WindsNR
MSE
:
PCC
:M
agni
tude
Spa
tial P
atte
rns
![Page 12: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Precipitation Surface WindsNR
MSE
:
PCC
:M
agni
tude
Spa
tial P
atte
rns
![Page 13: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Precipitation Surface WindsNR
MSE
:
PCC
:M
agni
tude
Spa
tial P
atte
rns
![Page 14: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Global Monsoon Domain
![Page 15: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Precipitation Surface WindsNR
MSE
:
PCC
:M
agni
tude
Spa
tial P
atte
rns
![Page 16: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Precipitation Surface Winds
Improvement in simulating annual mean precipitation, but important biases in seasonal
mean precipitation
NRM
SE:
P
CC:
Mag
nitu
de
S
patia
l Pat
tern
s
![Page 17: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Performance Metrics
![Page 18: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
GMPD is well captured in most of the GCMs
No direct relationship between model performance and
horizontal model resolution
Reduction of dispersion among CMIP6 models
![Page 19: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
![Page 20: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Performance by group of models - GMPD
![Page 21: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Intermodel agreement - GMPD
![Page 22: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Higher agreement in ocean monsoon precipitation
Overestimation of DJF precipitation
Oceanic regions
![Page 23: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
No significant improvement in simulating NAM
The biggest improvement is evidenced on
Australian region
Land regions
![Page 24: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Leading modes of annual
variation
Multivariate empirical orthogonal functions (MV-EOF)12-month climatology from precipitation and surface winds
![Page 25: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
pr u vObserved
EV pr u v
PCC NRMSE
Observations Simulations
Interpolation to reference resolution
![Page 26: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Overall improvement
capturing leading modes
Model Performance
![Page 27: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Overall improvement
capturing leading modes
Reduction of dispersion among
CMIP6 models
Model Performance
![Page 28: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Performance by group of models - Annual MV-EOF1
?
?
?
![Page 29: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Inter-annual variability
Multivariate empirical orthogonal functions (MV-EOF)monthly anomalies from precipitation within GMPD and
surface winds within GMWD (1979-2000)
![Page 30: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Inter-annual variability
ENSO-related mode
Multivariate empirical orthogonal functions (MV-EOF)monthly anomalies from precipitation within GMPD and
surface winds within GMWD (1979-2000)
![Page 31: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
pr u v
PCC NRMSE
Precipitation within observed GMPD and surface winds within
observed GMWDpr u v
Projection of global anomalies of precipitation and surface winds onto inter-annual leading mode
INMCM3.0 MV-EOF 1
Observations Simulations
![Page 32: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Lower performance compared to annual variation
Model Performance
![Page 33: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Performance by group of models - Inter annual MV-EOF1
?
? ?
![Page 34: Model performance in simulating Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos ... · Luz Adriana Gómez, Carlos D. Hoyos, Diana Carolina Cruz, and Peter J. Webster. Global Monsoon African Monsoon Asian-Australian](https://reader035.vdocuments.net/reader035/viewer/2022071006/5fc3f46f442a681b0349d726/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
● Global monsoon domain and annual leading modes are well captured in most of the GCMs.
● CMIP6 models show a significant improvement especially over the Asian-Australian monsoon region.
● Model simulations are still affected by large biases, in terms of seasonal precipitation and interannual variability.
● It is relevant to point out that dispersion among GCMs was considerably reduced within CMIP6, except for interannual variability.
● We do not find a direct relationship between model performance and horizontal resolution.
Summary and Conclusions