model simulation of the natural and anthropogenic impacts...

Model Simulation of the Natural and Model Simulation of the Natural and Anthropogenic Impacts on the Anthropogenic Impacts on the

Variability of the Gas CompositionVariability of the Gas Compositionand Temperature in the and Temperature in the TTroposphere roposphere

and and SStratospheretratosphere

Sergei SmyshlyaevSergei SmyshlyaevRussian State Russian State Hydrometeorological Hydrometeorological UniversityUniversity

Atmospheric Chemical Transport Atmospheric Chemical Transport Models According Their ScaleModels According Their Scale

55oox5x5oo65000x65000x20 km65000x65000x20 kmGlobalGlobal

80 km80 km3000x3000x20 km3000x3000x20 kmSynopticSynoptic

20 km20 km1000x1000x10 km1000x1000x10 kmRegionalRegional

4 km4 km100x100x5 km100x100x5 kmUrbanUrban

5 m5 m200x200x100 m200x200x100 mMicroscaleMicroscale

ResolutionResolutionTypical DomainTypical DomainModelModel

Atmospheric Chemistry ModelsAtmospheric Chemistry Models

•• Air quality models (Air quality models (ACTMsACTMs) coupled ) coupled with NWP models with NWP models –– Integrated Integrated chemical weather chemical weather –– NMP models NMP models

•• Chemical transport (Chemical transport (CTMsCTMs) ) combined with General Circulation combined with General Circulation Models (Models (GCMsGCMs) ) –– ChemistryChemistry--climate climate models (models (CCMsCCMs))

Importance of FeedbacksImportance of Feedbacks

• Chemistry-dynamics-radiation feedbacks are traditionally neglected in general circulation and chemistry-transport modeling due largely to historical separation of meteorology, climate, and chemistry communities as well as our limited understanding of underlying mechanisms;

• Those feedbacks, however, are important as models accounting or not accounting for those feedbacks may give different results;

• Future climate changes may be affected by various feedback mechanisms

• Increasing evidence from field measurements have shown that suchfeedbacks ubiquitously exist among the Earth systems including the atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere.

Investigation Investigation subjectsubject

•• Most of the observed Most of the observed longlong--term Ozone, other term Ozone, other TraceTrace Gases and Gases and Temperature Variations Temperature Variations are attributed to the are attributed to the UTLSUTLS regionregion

•• ManMan--mademade and and NaturalNaturalfactors may be factors may be responsible for this responsible for this variabilityvariability

Observed tendencies of ozoneObserved tendencies of ozone and and temperaturetemperature

• Stratospheric ozone depletion,

• Increase of concentrations of greenhouse gases and the tropospheric ozone,

• Global warming in the troposphere,

• Stratospheric cooling

Fioletov et al. JGR (2002)

During this periodDuring this period::•• Stratospheric chlorine and Stratospheric chlorine and

bromine concentrations bromine concentrations were increasing; were increasing;

•• Solar Activity was Solar Activity was varying;varying;

•• Volcanoes were erupting, Volcanoes were erupting, affecting stratospheric affecting stratospheric aerosol concentrations; aerosol concentrations; andand

•• There were variations in There were variations in stratospheric dynamics stratospheric dynamics and transport.and transport.

Research GoalResearch Goal

•• Separate natural and anthropogenic effects on Separate natural and anthropogenic effects on the chemical composition and circulation of the the chemical composition and circulation of the Upper Troposphere and Low Stratosphere Upper Troposphere and Low Stratosphere

•• Test effects of Test effects of feedbacksfeedbacks between ozone and between ozone and temperature changes temperature changes

•• Compare to ObservationsCompare to Observations

Solar Solar IrradianceIrradiance Ozone

Photochemical Photochemical processesprocesses

Heating of atmosphere

Other trace gases

Temperature Dynamic processes

Feedbacks IncludedFeedbacks Included

•• Heating by Ozone;Heating by Ozone;•• Cooling by Water Vapor, Methane and NCooling by Water Vapor, Methane and N22OO•• Sulfur chemistry and sulfate aerosol and Sulfur chemistry and sulfate aerosol and

polar stratospheric cloud evolution;polar stratospheric cloud evolution;•• Chemistry feedback;Chemistry feedback;•• Photolysis Photolysis feedback;feedback;•• Deep and shallow convectionDeep and shallow convection

Polar Stratospheric CloudsPolar Stratospheric Clouds

• This module is based on the combination of the thermodynamics of phase transitions and the microphysics of particle size distribution and gravity settling;

• The main assumption is that PSC particles are generated from the sulfate aerosol existing in the stratosphere as a result of absorption of nitrous oxide and water vapors;

• The resulting ternary aerosol consists of water vapor, sulfuric acid, and nitric acid

Gravitational SedimentationGravitational Sedimentation

• Gravity settling is calculated depending on the particle radius and density;

• Increase in the mean radius of particles leads to increased velocities of gravity settling due to uptake of additional nitric acid;

• Denitrification and dehydration;•• Suppress nitrogen and hydrogen catalytic ozone Suppress nitrogen and hydrogen catalytic ozone

destruction and activate chlorine and bromine destruction and activate chlorine and bromine catalytic destruction;catalytic destruction;

Temperature HistoryTemperature History

• If the particles at previous moment are under low-temperature conditions, the coarse aerosol can be in the solid phase;

• Under suitable thermodynamic conditions, the formation of PSCs consisting of solid nitrogen-containing particles is possible;

• If, under the same temperature conditions, the previous history of particles is not characterized by sufficiently low temperatures, the aerosol will be in the form of liquid ternary particles

STRATEGYSTRATEGYfor for CChemistryhemistry--CClimate limate MModeling odeling (CCM)(CCM)

• Problem of gas composition changes is studied with Chemical Transport Models (CTMs)

• Studies of temperature and dynamics variabilityare carried out using General Circulation Models (GCMs)

• Interaction between these models is important

CCMCCM

33--D D ChemistryChemistry--Transport Model Transport Model Complex Complex SUNYSUNY--SPB (RSHU)SPB (RSHU)774 4 gasesgases, 17, 1744 chemical reactionschemical reactions, 51 , 51 processes of processes of photophotolysislysis, 29 , 29 heterogeneous reactionsheterogeneous reactions ((oxygen, nitrogen, hydrogen, chlorine, oxygen, nitrogen, hydrogen, chlorine, bromine, carbon and sulfur familiesbromine, carbon and sulfur families), ), 39 altitude levels (14 in the 39 altitude levels (14 in the troposphere) (0─90 km), 5x4 horizontal resolution (88 S─88 N), troposphere) (0─90 km), 5x4 horizontal resolution (88 S─88 N), polar stratospheric clouds formation and evolutionpolar stratospheric clouds formation and evolutionSmyshlyaevSmyshlyaev S.P. , S.P. , V.L.V.L.DvortsovDvortsov, M.A.Geller, V., M.A.Geller, V.YudinYudin, , J.J.GeophysGeophys.Res.,.Res., 103, 103, 2837328373--28387, 1998.28387, 1998.

interactively coupled withinteractively coupled with

33--DD GGeneral eneral CCirculation irculation MModelodel INMINM ((IInstitute of nstitute of NNumerical umerical MMathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences) athematics, Russian Academy of Sciences)

V.V.YaYa. Galin, S.P. Smyshlyaev, E.M. . Galin, S.P. Smyshlyaev, E.M. VolodinVolodin, "Combined Chemistry, "Combined Chemistry--Climate Climate Model of the Atmosphere", Model of the Atmosphere", IzvIzv., ., AtmosAtmos. Ocean. Phys. 43, 3. Ocean. Phys. 43, 3--17, 200717, 2007

ModelsModels

Modeled and Observed Column OzoneModeled and Observed Column Ozone

TOMS+SBUV merged

J F M A M J J A S O N DMonth

90S

60S

30S

0

30N

60N

90NLa

titue

200240 280

280

280

280

280

280320

320

320

360

400Model

J F M A M J J A S O N DMonth

90S

60S

30S

0

30N

60N

90N

Latitu

e

240280

280

280

280280

280

320320

320

320

320

360

400

Ozone altitudeOzone altitude--latitude cross sectionlatitude cross sectionSBUV,Jan

-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90Latitude

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Altit

ude,

km

1

1

2

223

45

6 78

9

SBUV,Apr

-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90Latitude

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Altit

ude,

km

1

1

2

2

23

4 5

6 7

8

9

SBUV,Jul

-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90Latitude

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Altit

ude,

km

1

1

2 23

4 5 6

7

8

9

SBUV,Oct

-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90Latitude

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Altit

ude,

km

1

1

2 23

4 5

6 7

8 9

Model,Jan

-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90Latitude

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Altit

ude,

km

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

4

5

5

6

7 8

Model,Apr

-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90Latitude

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Altit

ude,

km

1

1

2

2

3

3

3

456

7

8 9

Model,Jul

-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90Latitude

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Altit

ude,

km

1

1

2

23

34

4

5

6

7

8

Model,Oct

-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90Latitude

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Altit

ude,

km

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

4

5

6

7

8 9

AltitudeAltitude--Latitude TemperatureLatitude TemperatureNMC/NCEP,Jan

-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90Latitude

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Altit

ude,

km

210

210

220

230

230

240

240

250

250

260

260

270

270

280290

NMC/NCEP,Apr

-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90Latitude

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Altit

ude,

km

210

210220

230

230

240

240

250

250

260

260

270280290

NMC/NCEP,Jul

-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90Latitude

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Altit

ude,

km

190

200

210 210

220230

230

240

240

250

250

260

260

270

270

280290

NMC/NCEP,Oct

-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90Latitude

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Altit

ude,

km

210 210

220

220

230

230

240

240

250

250

260

260

270

270

280290

Model,Jan

-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90Latitude

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Altit

ude,

km

210

210220

220

230

230

240

240

250

250

250

260

260

260

270

270

280

280

290

Model,Apr

-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90Latitude

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Altit

ude,

km

210

220

220

230

230

240

240

250

250

250

260

260

270280290

Model,Jul

-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90Latitude

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Altit

ude,

km

200

210

210

220230

230

240

240

250

250

250

260

260

260

270

270

270

280290

Model,Oct

-90 -60 -30 0 30 60 90Latitude

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Altit

ude,

km

200

210

210

220

220

230

230

240

240

250

250

250

260

260

260

270

270

280

280

290

LongLong--Term VariabilityTerm Variability

•• ООzonezone •• ТемрТемрeratureerature

Northern Hemisphere

1980.0 1986.7 1993.3 2000.0-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

Perc

ent

Southern Hemisphere

1980.0 1986.7 1993.3 2000.0

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

Perc

ent

Northern Hemisphere

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000210

211

212

213

214

Degre

e K

Southern Hemisphere

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000207

208

209

210

211

212

Degre

e K

РезультатыРезультаты химикохимико--климатического климатического моделированиямоделирования

•• МежгодоваяМежгодовая уменьшение содержания озона в 1980уменьшение содержания озона в 1980--1995 годах моделируется с хорошей точностью1995 годах моделируется с хорошей точностью

•• Наблюдаемого сокращения содержания озона Наблюдаемого сокращения содержания озона недостаточно для объяснения наблюдаемого недостаточно для объяснения наблюдаемого охлаждения стратосферыохлаждения стратосферы

•• Возможными факторами дополнительного Возможными факторами дополнительного выхолаживания стратосферы могут быть выбросы выхолаживания стратосферы могут быть выбросы парниковых газов, которые кроме нагревания парниковых газов, которые кроме нагревания тропосферы приводят к охлаждению стратосферы итропосферы приводят к охлаждению стратосферы и

•• Изменение активности атмосферных планетарных Изменение активности атмосферных планетарных волн и их взаимодействия со средним потокомволн и их взаимодействия со средним потоком

•• Выбросы парниковых газов могут повлиять на Выбросы парниковых газов могут повлиять на активность планетарных волнактивность планетарных волн

MethodologyMethodology of nof numericalumerical experimentsexperiments

•• RSHURSHU--INM CCM was run for 1979INM CCM was run for 1979--20032003

•• Source gases were varied according to WMO Source gases were varied according to WMO scenario [2006]scenario [2006]

•• SAD loading was estimated based on SAMS and SAD loading was estimated based on SAMS and SAGE dataSAGE data

•• SST interSST inter--year variations based on AMIP scenarioyear variations based on AMIP scenario

•• Solar variability was included based on the Solar variability was included based on the sunspot data archive and solar UV radiation sunspot data archive and solar UV radiation variability variability ((ZerefosZerefos [1997], Lean [2000], [1997], Lean [2000], RottmanRottman [2000])[2000])

Column Ozone Changes relative its average for 1980Column Ozone Changes relative its average for 1980--20002000

Northern Hemisphere

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

Per

cent

Solar Cycle No Solar Cycle TOMS/SBUV

Southern Hemisphere

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

Per

cent

Solar Cycle No Solar Cycle TOMS/SBUV

Global OzoneGlobal Ozone

•• Ozone depletion due to Ozone depletion due to CFCs is up toCFCs is up to 3%3%

•• ManMan--made impact was made impact was stabilized by the end of stabilized by the end of 9090thth

•• Ozone recovery started at Ozone recovery started at midmid 9090thth is mainly due is mainly due to natural reasons (Solar to natural reasons (Solar Activity, Stratospheric Activity, Stratospheric Cooling, and Aerosol Cooling, and Aerosol Cleaning)Cleaning)

Latitudes from -90 to 90

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

Pe

rce

nt

vs 1

98

0

Temperature Volcanoes Solar Cycle Br and Cl

TOMS-SBUV merged

ExtraExtra--polar Ozonepolar Ozone

•• ManMan--made effect up tomade effect up to2%2% ofof ооzone depletionzone depletion

•• MaximumMaximum ооzonezonereduction in midreduction in mid 9090ss((up toup to 6%6%)) is due tois due toVolcanoes Eruptions Volcanoes Eruptions ((PinatuboPinatubo 19911991),), solar solar activity minimumactivity minimum,,delayed temperature delayed temperature impactimpact


1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

Pe

rce

nt

vs 1

98

0


TOMS-SBUV merged

ТТropicalropical ООzonezone

•• The role of The role of anthropogenic factor is anthropogenic factor is negligiblenegligible (within(within 1%1%))

•• 1111--yearyear Solar Cycle Solar Cycle almost fully derive almost fully derive observed column observed column ozone variabilityozone variability


1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

Pe

rce

nt

vs 1

98

0


TOMS-SBUV merged

Inter Hemispheric DifferencesInter Hemispheric Differences

•• ManMan--made effect differ up to two timesmade effect differ up to two times•• TTемремрerature erature impact is postponed for Southern Hemisphereimpact is postponed for Southern Hemisphere•• The role of dynamicsThe role of dynamics –– mass exchange with polar regionsmass exchange with polar regions

Latitudes from 30 to 60

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

Perc

ent v

s 19

80


TOMS-SBUV merged

Latitudes from -60 to -30

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

Perc

ent v

s 19

80


TOMS-SBUV merged

Polar RegionsPolar RegionsLatitudes from 60 to 90

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

Per

cent

vs

1980

Temperature

Volcanoes Solar Cycle

Br and Cl

TOMS-SBUV merged

•• Significant differences betweenSignificant differences between ААrcticrctic и и ААntarcticntarctic•• Differences Differences in anthropogenic effect up toin anthropogenic effect up to 33--44 timestimes•• Temperature variability is more important inTemperature variability is more important in ArcticArctic

Latitudes from -90 to -60

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Year

-15

-10

-5

0

Per

cent

vs

1980

Temperature

Volcanoes Solar Cycle

Br and Cl

TOMS-SBUV merged

Prognostic ozone variability under Montreal Prognostic ozone variability under Montreal Protocol ConditionsProtocol Conditions

Prognostic ozone variability assuming Prognostic ozone variability assuming continouscontinouscoolingcooling

ConclusionsConclusions

• The coupled interactive three-dimensional Chemistry Climate Model of lower and middle atmosphere has been developed

• Numerical experiments with CCM were carriedout to study interactions between chemical and physical processes in the atmosphere

• Performed research has shown the importance of feedbacks between the chemical and physical processes which have both quantitative andqualitative impacts on the atmospheric climate

model simulation of the natural and anthropogenic impacts...

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