modeling a miracle: mana and the battle at xa long tan 18 august 1966
TRANSCRIPT
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Modeling a Miracle:MANA and the Battle at Xa Long Tan
18 AUGUST 1966
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Xa Long Tan:The History
- Battle occurred as a result of Australian involvement in the Phuoc Tuy Province of South Vietnam (1965-1971)
- After receiving mortar fire, the Australian Task Force (ATF) Base sends out Patrols to find the staging site for the attacks
- Patrols continue into the next day and D Company is sent to relieve B Company on patrol
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Xa Long Tan:The History- The 108 men of D Company under Major Smith find the Mortar Site and then advance into a rubber plantation near Long Tan to search for the enemy.
- 11 Platoon makes contact, moves quickly ahead to pursue the enemy, but begins to receive fire.
- 10 Platoon moves south to relieve 11 Platoon but is also bogged down.
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Xa Long Tan: The History- As first shots are fired, the monsoon breaks and reduces visibility to 50m
- “It’s bigger than I thought it was. They’re going to attack us!” - 2nd LT Sharp CO 11 Platoon
-ATF Base organizes relief force, but D Company is forced to hold out for nearly four hours before it finally arrives.
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Xa Long Tan: The Outcome-D Company had engaged a full strength North Vietnamese Main Force Regiment!
- i.e. 108 men vs. 2500 men
-D COY suffers 17 DEAD 19 WOUNDED
-Vietnamese officially suffer 245 DEAD and an estimated 300-500 WOUNDED
? WHY ?
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MANA: A Means to an Answer
- Analyzing history using computer modeling
-Each Agent represents 10 Soldiers (APC= 7)
- Battlefield represents 1 km2 on a 1:2 Scale (1 unit = 2 m)
- 20 Shots required to kill an agent in “shot at” trigger state (2 shots per man)
- 10 Shots to kill an Agent in any other trigger state
- Each agent can engage 10 items per timestep
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MANA: A Means to an Answer
- Base case Sensor Range (SR) at 25 units (50m)
- Effective Weapon Range at 60 units (120 m) and Firepower (Accuracy) generally at 50
- Australian Situational Awareness at 40 (COY HQ at 70)
- Scenario ends upon arrival of APC Squadron
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MANA: A Means to an Answer
- Australians represented by Blue (18 total Agents, 1 APC Agent)
-Australians given high Stealth due to their defensive posture (Stealth ~ 70-82)
-North Vietnamese are represented by Red Agents (85 total Agents)
- Australians are the limiting reagent in this experiment, so the focus of this study revolves around them and limiting the Casualties of the smaller force
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WITHOUT FURTHER ADO
THE BASE CASE SCENARIO:Xa Long Tan as it Happened
LongTanBase1.dat
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Experimental History
Now that we have been able to capture history, what do we do with it?
EXPERIMENT!- HOW?
- By changing Parameters and “Farming” Data
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What If ?- What if there was no monsoon on 18AUG1966? (SR 75 = 150m)
- What if it had rained harder? (SR 10 = 20m)
- What if the Australians had been more aware of what was happening? (Satellite Uplink / Net Centric Warfare) (AWR +50%)
- What if all of the radios had been shot out? (AWR -50%)
- What if the Australians had more/less weapon training and or more/less National Servicemen in their units (FP +/- 50%)
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The Answers?- The Data Farming in this experiment was done by taking the aforementioned questions and making them “reality”
- Each scenario of experimental history was run a total of 10 times (time constraint prevented more experimentation) and the number of casualties was recorded for each run
- The variation per seed is based upon the starting position of the Agents on the map
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DISCLAIMER- This Scenario was developed and tested under MANA v. 0.93
-Due to a memory leak in that version, any scenario utilizing a sensor range of 75 units was tested under MANA v. 0.97
-It has been observed that Agents in MANA v. 0.97 behave distinctly different from those in MANA v. 0.93 under identical conditions
-Therefore all Data involving SR 75 should be observed with some caution when compared to v. 0.93
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Altering Awareness Against Sensor Range
0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00
10.0011.0012.0013.0014.00
SensorRange = 10
SensorRange = 25
SensorRange = 75
Ca
su
alt
ies
Maximum
Mean
Minimum
0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00
10.0011.0012.0013.0014.00
SensorRange = 10
SensorRange = 25
SensorRange = 75
Ca
su
alt
ies
Maximum
Mean
Minimum
0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00
10.0011.0012.0013.0014.00
SensorRange = 10
SensorRange = 25
SensorRange = 75
Ca
su
alt
ies
Maximum
Mean
Minimum
Awareness –50% Awareness: Base Value Awareness +50%
- Casualties increase steadily as Threat Awareness increases
- Possibly a result of increased engagement as more Agents are visible
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Altering Firepower Against Changing Sensor Range/ Base Awareness
0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00
10.0011.0012.0013.0014.00
SensorRange = 10
SensorRange = 25
SensorRange = 75
Ca
su
alt
ies
Maximum
Mean
Minimum
0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00
10.0011.0012.0013.0014.00
SensorRange = 10
SensorRange = 25
Ca
su
alt
ies
Maximum
Mean
Minimum
0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00
10.0011.0012.0013.0014.00
SensorRange = 25
SensorRange = 75
Ca
su
alt
ies
Maximum
Mean
Minimum
Firepower: -50% Firepower: Base Value Firepower: +50%
-Casualties decrease with increasing firepower
-Inverse relationship based upon the notion that the more enemy that are killed, the less of them are there to kill you
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Altering Firepower against Changing Sensor Range at –50% Awareness
0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00
10.0011.0012.0013.0014.00
SensorRange = 10
SensorRange = 25
SensorRange = 75
Ca
su
alt
ies
Maximum
Mean
Minimum
0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00
10.0011.0012.0013.0014.00
SensorRange = 10
SensorRange = 25
Ca
su
alt
ies
Maximum
Mean
Minimum
0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00
10.0011.0012.0013.0014.00
SensorRange = 25
SensorRange = 75
Ca
su
alt
ies
Maximum
Mean
Minimum
Firepower: -50% Firepower: Base Value
Firepower: +50%
- Fewest Maximum/Average Casualties occur when the Awareness is lowest and firepower is highest.
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Altering Firepower Against Sensor Range at +50% Awareness
0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00
10.0011.0012.0013.0014.00
SensorRange = 10
SensorRange = 25
SensorRange = 75
Ca
su
alt
ies
Maximum
Mean
Minimum
0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00
10.0011.0012.0013.0014.00
SensorRange = 10
SensorRange = 25
Ca
su
alt
ies
Maximum
Mean
Minimum
0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00
10.0011.0012.0013.0014.00
SensorRange = 25
SensorRange = 75
Ca
su
alt
ies
Maximum
Mean
Minimum
Firepower: -50% Firepower: Base Value Firepower: +50%
- Greatest Maximum/ Average casualties occur when firepower is at a minimum and Awareness is greatest
- Is ignorance Bliss? Probably not . . .
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0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00
10.0011.0012.0013.0014.00
SensorRange = 10
SensorRange = 25
SensorRange = 75
Ca
su
alt
ies
Maximum
Mean
Minimum
0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00
10.0011.0012.0013.0014.00
SensorRange = 10
SensorRange = 25
SensorRange = 75
Ca
su
alt
ies
Maximum
Mean
Minimum
0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00
10.0011.0012.0013.0014.00
SensorRange = 10
SensorRange = 25
SensorRange = 75
Ca
su
alt
ies
Maximum
Mean
Minimum
0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00
10.0011.0012.0013.0014.00
SensorRange = 10
SensorRange = 25
Ca
su
alt
ies
Maximum
Mean
Minimum
0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00
10.0011.0012.0013.0014.00
SensorRange = 25
SensorRange = 75
Ca
su
alt
ies
Maximum
Mean
Minimum
0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00
10.0011.0012.0013.0014.00
SensorRange = 10
SensorRange = 25
Cas
ual
ties
Maximum
Mean
Minimum
0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00
10.0011.0012.0013.0014.00
SensorRange = 25
SensorRange = 75
Ca
su
alt
ies
Maximum
Mean
Minimum
0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00
10.0011.0012.0013.0014.00
SensorRange = 10
SensorRange = 25
Ca
su
alt
ies
Maximum
Mean
Minimum
0.001.002.003.004.005.006.007.008.009.00
10.0011.0012.0013.0014.00
SensorRange = 25
SensorRange = 75
Ca
su
alt
ies
Maximum
Mean
MinimumFIR
EP
OW
ER
-50%
+50
%B
AS
E
AWARENESS-50% BASE +50%
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Impact of Sensor Range- For Maximum casualties SR had little effect
- Average casualties dropped slightly on either side
- Greater vision would allow greater use of weapon range i.e. Fighting in defensive posture over a greater range.
- Poor vision allowed to enemy to get in closer, but left enemy vulnerable to be shot before gaining a defensive posture (higher kill probability)
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Tactical Scenarios: More “What If ?”-What if Major Smith had heeded the warning of the dead Vietnamese Regular and proceeded cautiously in a tight “One Up” formation? (One Up)
-What if Major Smith had decided to cover a larger search front with a “two up” formation? (Two Up)
-What if the American tactics of using trails had been accepted by the Australian 1RAR during their time with U.S. Army’s 173rd Brigade? (Trail)
-What if the Australians were quick to recognize the capabilities of APC’s and had used them employed them with D COY? (APC Trail)
- What if Major Smith saw the coming monsoon and decided to keep his formation within visual range? (Tight)
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Tactical Formations:From the Australian Soldier’s Handbook Circa 1965
“One Up”
D COY HQ
10 Platoon
11 Platoon 12 Platoon
“Two Up”
D COY HQ
10 Platoon 11 Platoon
12 Platoon
“Column”10 PlatoonD COY HQ11 Platoon12 Platoon
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Tactical Demonstrations
- LTBase1UP.dat “One Up”
- LT2UP.dat “Two Up”
- LTBaseTrail.dat “Trail”
- LTBaseTrailAPC.dat “Trail APC”
- LTBaseTight.dat “Tight”
* Nothing else besides the Tactics have been changed from the Base Case Scenario except for “Trail” where Australian stealth is reduced due to reduced cover
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Altering Tactics
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
BASE 1 UP 2 UP Trail APC Trail Tight
Cas
ual
ties
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Tactical Summary-“One Up” and “Two Up” scenario averages were close to or slightly less than the Base Case
-Range Variation due to the fact that tighter grouping may result in either greater concentration of Blue firepower or in greater concentration of Red forces
- “Trail” Scenario left the Australians too vulnerable and open to Ambush/ Annihilation
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Tactical Summary- Addition of APC allowed for a lower minimum death toll than the “trail” scenario
- Disparity between Minimum and Maximum is because casualties become highly dependent on the behavior and focus of the APC squadron
-Average remains high because of troop vulnerability
- “Tight” scenario provides greater coordination and cooperation in the battle
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Observations/ Lessons Learned
- In order to produce the least casualties in battle, Major Smith should have kept his units within visual range.
- Allowing units to act more independently of the knowledge of the HQ unit and training troops more also could have produced fewer casualties.
- Rain may not have been the deciding factor in the battle
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Observations/ Lessons Learned
- Stealth protects the Australians the most
- Was stealth dependant on training, terrain, camouflage, or rain?
- APC’s effective as a rescue force once the Vietnamese were weakened, but if APC’s were ambushed in the initial assault, it is likely they would have been destroyed too
-Tactics were important in casualty levels
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MANA Critique
- MANA v. 0.93 and v. 0.97 are INCOMPATIBLE
- MANA needs individual coordinate interface
- Global trigger state personality change option would be beneficial
- MANA should allow the user to select the desired MAP file instead of producing a MAP for each scenario. This would reduce disk space needed to hold scenarios.
- Possibility of some way to simulate artillery
- More variety of terrain which would automatically reduce movement speed and increase stealth
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??QUESTIONS??
“Curiouser and Curiouser”