Modeling Domestic Transitions, Climatic Change, and Livelihoods: A Case Study of Mossi Households, Burkina Faso

Colin Thor WestResearch Assistant Professor of AnthropologyInstitute of Social and Economic Research (ISER)University of Alaska Anchorage (UAA)

Pugkêenga (A) and Independent (B) Mossi residence patterns

Have Mossi extended households disappeared?

If not, why?

How do Mossi domestic transitions articulate with larger processes of climatic and social change?

Desiccation, livelihood diversification, and agricultural intensification have promoted household extension

Rissiam, 2002 – G. Tappan

Pugkêenga and Independent Households

Independent

Pugkêenga

45 30

50 89

Pugkêenga and independent fields

Pugkêenga

Independent

Household – Unit of production, consumption, and reproduction

Operationalized – A group that farms together in the same field, pools resources, eats from a common granary and recognizes the authority of single head

Pugkêenga and independent granaries:

Africa and Burkina Faso

G H A N AG H A N AI V O R Y C O A S TI V O R Y C O A S T

B E N I NB E N I N

B U R K I N A F A S OB U R K I N A F A S O

M A L IM A L I

G U I N E AG U I N E A

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M A U R I T A N I AM A U R I T A N I A

N I G E RN I G E RN I G E RN I G E RN I G E RN I G E R

N I G E R I AN I G E R I A

L I B E R I AL I B E R I A

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Kilometers

Area of Detail

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T I K A R ET I K A R E S A B C ES A B C E

K O N G O U S S IK O N G O U S S I

Z I M T E N G AZ I M T E N G A

Sakou

Kouka

Rissiam

Loulouka

KONGOUSSI

!OUAGADOUGOU

°0 3 6 9 121.5

Kilometers

Central Plateau Area of Detail

Legend

5 Localities

Department Boundaries

National Road

Contour Lines

Lake/water

Inundation Zone

97 household surveys covering:- demographics- grain production- assets such as animals, cattle, ploughs, etc.

Fieldwork conducted in 2004

Climatic change: Sahelian desiccation

From Bell and Lamb 2006: 5344

Annual precipitation index for the Sahel (from 11o to 18o N, west of 10o E)

Climatic change: regional desiccation

Data provided by the Direction de la Méteorologie du Burkina Faso

famine exodus

WET

DESICCATION

Social change: agricultural intensification, livelihood diversification, SWC, cattle-raising

Comparison of predicted v. observed NDVI for 13.3oN , -1.5oW

- Analysis prepared by S. Herrmann, PhD

SWC and “greening of the Sahel”

Sustainable livelihoods framework

DFID

Sustainability – Davies, 1996

Mossi mixed subsistence livelihood system

Are pugkêenga households disappearing?

Comparison of Pugkêenga Frequencies with Other Case Studies

Author Kohler Imbs West

Village(s)Province

Year fieldwork conducted

DakolaYatenga

1965-1968

KumtaaboYatenga

1969-1972, 1973

Loulouka, Sakou, KoukaBam2004

N 63 162 97

Independent Count 43 145 42

% of Sample 68.3 89.5 43.3

Pugkêenga Count 20 17 55

% of Sample 31.7 10.5 56.7

Pugkêenga households and population density

Pugkêenga v. Independent Household Frequencies by Village

Household Type

Population Density (persons/km2)

High (135) Medium (42) Low (11)

Loulouka Sakou Kouka

N 32 35 31

Independent Count 10 18 14

% within village 31.3% 51.4% 43.3%

Pugkêenga Count 22 17 16

% within village 68.8% 48.6% 53.3%

Pugkêenga households and social capital

Mann-Whitney Z = -4.425, one-tailed p = 0.000

Chayanov consumer/producer ratios

Based on Toulmin, 1992:260

TABLE 2 Chayanov Consumer-Producer Weights

Member CategoryWeight

Consumer Index Producer Index

Males 71 + 0.6 0.0

51-70 0.8 0.5

15-50 1.0 1.0

Females 71 + 0.6 0.0

51-70 0.7 0.5

15-50 0.9 0.6

Males/Females < 15 0.6 0.3

Pugkêenga households and Chayanov consumer/producer ratios

Pugkêenga

Pugkêenga households and grain production

* one-tail p < 0.05 using Mann-Whitney U test

* * * ** * * *

Pugkêenga households and animal assets

Mann-Whitney Z = -1.16, one-tailed p = 0.041

mean = 2.95 mean = 6.57

Pugkêenga households and animal assets

Total Monetized Value of Animal Assets by Household Adult Equivalents (AE)

Household Type N Mean (CFA/AE)

Sum of Ranks

Mean RankValue

 

Independent 42 43183 1816.5 43.3  

Pugkêenga 53 54405 2743.5 51.8  

Mann-Whitney Z = -1.495, one-tailed p = 0.0675 

Pugkêenga and independent households

Mossi Livelihood Model Agent Variables Summary Based on Survey Means

Variable name DescriptionValues

Pugkêenga Independent

grain Amount of grain (kg) 2156 1490

assets Amount of animal assets (CFA) 653148 218333

consum Household consumption value 12.15 6.82

prod Household production value 8.24 4.60

chayanov Household Chayanov ratio (C/P) 1.47 1.50

pugkeenga? Household is a pugkêenga ? True False

Pukeenga_model

Initial scenario – 30 runs

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mean_pugkeenga pugkeenga_95% pugkeenga_05% mean_independent independent_05% independent_95%

Climate: observedProd-mm: low (0.125 kg/mm)Off-farm-ops: low (1.5%)

Terroir scenario – 30 runs

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1 101 201 301 401 501 601 701 801 901 1001 1101 1201 1301 1401 1501 1601 1701 1801

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mean_pugkeenga pugkeenga_95% pugkeenga_05% mean_independent independent_95% independent_05%

Climate: wetProd-mm: low (0.125 kg/mm)Off-farm-ops: medium (8.5%)

Contemporary scenario – 30 runs

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1 101 201 301 401 501 601 701 801 901 1001 1101 1201 1301 1401 1501 1601 1701 1801

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mean_pugkeenga pugkeenga_95% pugkeenga_05% mean_independent independent_95% independent_05%

Climate: dryProd-mm: high (0.175 kg/mm)Off-farm-ops: high (10%)

Conclusions:

- Pugkêenga households persist

- Pugkêenga households and their livelihood assets enhance their sustainability under conditions of desiccation, agricultural intensification, and livelihood diversification

- Agent-based modeling is a powerful tool for exploring the contingent nature of domestic processes in terms of climatic and social change

Acknowledgements:

UofA Marshall Foundation Dissertation Fellowship

UofA Global Change IDP Dissertation Improvement Grant

Arizona State Museum Raymond Thompson Dissertation Grant

UofA Social and Behavioral Sciences Research Institute Graduate Research Grant

Institut de la Démographique et de la Statistique -BF

PATECORE - BF Institut de la Géographie du BurkinaMETEO - BF

NOAA Global and Climate Change Post-doc Fellowship Program

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Loa

Sam

Kora

Zano

KilouLoaga

Gouse

Sakou

Bargo

Doure

Kouka

Dougre

Tamiga

Imiere

Nienega

Sakoure

Nongsom

Lourgou

Loulouka

Tampouga

Ouampega

Komsilga

Badinogo

Badinogo

Dinguila

KONGOUSSI

Dariguima

Koumbango

Kouppelle

Kondibito

Bayen-Foulgo

°0 2.51.25

Kilometers

Lake

5 Villages

$ Surveyed hhs contour line

Approximate village terroir boundaries

Flood zoneMinor roadNational road

Departmental road