modeling future land use, regional climate, and maize yields in east africa nathan moore, b...
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Modeling Future Land Use, Regional Climate, and Maize
Yields in East AfricaNathan Moore, B Pijanowski, B Lofgren, G Alagarswamy,
J Andresen, J Olson
B43H-03
University of Dar Es Salaam
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What is the nature and magnitude of climate-land interactions?
GCM versus RCMIPCC, radiative forcings
Coupling human and natural systems
Fundamental Research Question:
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Focused Questions/Motivation
Question 1: What are likely Climate Change and Land Cover Change Impacts on Future East African Agriculture?
Question 2: Is Land Cover/Land Use Change asimportant as Greenhouse Gas Concentrations at the Regional Scale?
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Conceptual Framework of the Modeling System
Spatial scales / temporal scales / uncertainty
Human Systems
Land Use & Land Cover
Climate
Effects on Agriculture
Herding, Agriculture,
Urban, Irrigation, etc
Surface Characteristics
Many pathways
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Upper Embu coffee & maize farms --- slopes of Mt. Kenya
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Major Data Sources and Models
• Land Use: Historical LUC studies, Africover. Model: Land Transformation Model (LTM)
• Land Cover: GLC 2000, MODIS fc & LAI (seasonal)
• Climate: CCSM 3.0 boundary conditions, RAMS 4.4, Worldclim station data,
ECHAM5, HadCM3
• NPP Models: CERES/Maize, LPJ
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What changes do we expect in agricultural land cover?
Land cover in 2000 Land cover in 2050 (projected)
Lowered roughness, higher moisture
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4 experiments for exploring climate and landscape effects
Land Cover Global Climate Comparison:
1: Current Current Baseline
2: Current 2050 decade Future climate effects only
3: 2050 decade Current Future land cover effects only
4: 2050 decade 2050 decade Synergistic effects
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Results from the 4 experiments
Focus on Differences:
A.Future Climate Effects (2-1)
B. Land Cover/Land Use Effects (3-1)
C. Synergistic Effects (4-1)
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Differences in Precipitation
Climate Change Land Cover/Land Use Synergistic EffectsEffects Change (LCLUC) Effects
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Differences in Temperature
Climate Change LCLUC Synergistic EffectsEffects Effects
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Climate Change LCLUC Synergistic EffectsEffects Effects (7.8 W/m2) (-2.8 W/m2) (8.6 W/m2)
Differences in Latent Heat Flux
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Win
d pa
ttern
cha
nges
du
e to
LC
LUC
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Projected in Maize Yield Climate and Landscape Forcings
Q1: Impacts on African Agriculture
Human Systems
Land Use & Land Cover
Climate
Effects on Agriculture
Herding, Agriculture,
Urban, Irrigation, etc
Surface Characteristics
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Relative Impact of Greenhouse Gases vs. Land Use Change
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Land Use and Climate may have strong impacts on East African Agriculture, and thus on humans (feedbacks)
Land Cover/Land Use may have impacts on the same scale as elevated Greenhouse Gas Concentrations, but highly localized effects
Tharaka, Kenya
Summary
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Coupling Human Systems to Land Use/Land Cover
Human Systems
Land Use & Land Cover
Climate
Effects on Crops, Disease,
Ecosystems, etc
Herding, Agriculture,
Urban, Irrigation, etc
Surface Characteristics
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Conclusion
• Potential problems related toagricultural futures in Africa
• Relative roles of greenhouses gases versus Land Cover/Land Use Change on climate
• Interdisciplinary issues of societal import; continuing savannas research
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Surface Characteristics influencing Climate
Important to include regional and local characteristics
Human Systems
Land Use & Land Cover
Climate
Effects on Crops, Disease,
Ecosystems, etc
Herding, Agriculture,
Urban, Irrigation, etc
Surface Characteristics
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Projected in Maize Yield Climate Forcings Only
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Glo
bal
Cli
mat
e in
pu
ts a
t th
e b
ou
nd
arie
s
Landscape Inputs
An Illustration of Climate and Land Cover Drivers
The Climate Model Domain
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Relative Impact of Greenhouse Gases vs. Land Use Change: Tmax
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Projected in Maize Yield: Landscape Forcings Only
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Differences in Sensible Heat Flux
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Conceptual framework: A walk around “The Loop”
Global Climate:From CCSM model
CLIMATE DYNAMICS
RAMS simulations
CERES-MAIZE(Crop model)
Land Transformation Model (LTM)
Land cover input to RAMS
Land
cov
er (a
lbed
o, F
C, LAI)Tm
in, Tmax, solar, precip