Modeling in Baltimore Harbor

Technical OutreachPrepared by

MDE/TARSAPrepared for the

Baltimore Harbor Stakeholder Advisory GroupSeptember 10, 2002

Harbor Toxics Modeling Program Estimate Nonpoint Source Loads -

Model the watershed - estimate loads from the land to the water Provide inputs to the Harbor Models Uses a Storm Water Management Model (SWMM)

Simulate Fate of Toxics in Baltimore Harbor – Harbor Models Management/Screen (Box Model) - UMCES

Hydrodynamics (water transport) and Sediment Transport Toxic (Dissolved/Particulate) Food Web

Detailed Assessment (Upper Bay Model) - VIMS Models entire Upper Bay to include exchange between the Harbor and

the Bay Hydrodynamics (water transport) and Sediment Transport Toxic (Dissolved/Particulate)

Harbor Toxics Modeling FrameworkWatershed

Model

Box Model

Upper Bay Model

Point Source and other Loads

Appropriate Scenarios

Toxic Water Quality Prediction

Baltimore HarborNon-Point / Point Source Comparison

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

Non-Point Source 181,408 44,617 3,433 101,292 17,411

Point Source (C(max)*Flow (avg)) 55,454 7,795 22,097 29,389 3,153

Point Source (C(avg)*Flow (avg)) 55,454 4,468 6,749 19,802 2,780

Flow (MG/yr) TSS (ton/yr) Cr (lb/yr) Zn (lb/yr) Pb (lb/yr)

UMCES – Toxic Box Model

Model Status Hydrodynamic/Sediment Transport

Linking Nonpoint Source and Point Source Loads – Completed Mass Balance Check - Completed Transfer Coefficients Sediment Transport Calibration

Toxic Box/Foodweb Linking Nonpoint Source and Point Source Loads – Completed Sensitivity Test Linking Hydrodynamic/Sediment Transport Model

Tate&Lyle

Beth-steel 014

Millennium1,2,3Grace Davison

Erachem-Comilog

Patapsco POTW

Baltimore Harbor Point Source to UMCES Toxic Model

Cox Creek WWTP

MTA -W

Beth 101 Beth 17Beth 17

US-Gypsum

CSX

CSG+TSGLocke

Carr-L G

GF+770+790

JF+810+800

820

PR+780+910+920

830

840+850+860

880+890

900/3

900/3

900/3

Baltimore Harbor Non-point Source Inputs to UMCES Toxic Model

Data : Time varying sea level at the Harbor mouth and time-varying winds to predict the temporal evolution of currents, sea-surface elevation, and water properties within the Harbor for 4 observed months.

May 1995 October/November 1999 – CHARM 1 March/April 2000 – CHARM 2 July/August 2000 – CHARM 3

Grid size : Horizontal – 360m * 360m Vertical – 6 layers (Sigma Coordinate)

UMCES – Hydrodynamic/Sediment

UMCES – Hydrodynamic/Sediment Mass Balance Checkup

Model run >>> dissolved Slow Intermediate Fast AllMstart (10^6 kg) 0.436 2.789 0.039 0.000 3.265Mboundaryflux (10^6 kg) -0.023 -0.144 -1.520 -0.246 -1.932Meroded (10^6 kg) 0.000 0.000 114.653 1482.040 1596.693Mdeposited (10^6 kg) 0.000 1.152 114.215 1481.770 1597.137Meroded-deposited (10^6 kg) 0.000 -1.152 0.438 0.266 -0.449Mflux3r(10^6kg) 0.000 0.648 0.648 0.000 1.296Msumfnps(10^6kg) 0.000 0.105 0.105 0.000 0.209Msumfps(10^6kg) 0.000 0.300 0.300 0.000 0.599Mremain (10^6 kg) 0.414 2.546 0.009 0.020 2.989Mend (10^6 kg) 0.414 2.550 0.013 0.000 2.977Mabsolute (10^6 kg) 0.000 -0.004 -0.004 0.020 0.012Percent error (%) 0.408

October/November 1999 – CHARM 1

Harbor Toxic Modeling FrameworkVIMS – Upper Bay Model

Model Status Hydrodynamic/Sediment Transport - Final Stage

Incorporating Nonpoint and Point Sources

ToxiWasp (simulating fate of toxic) – In Progress Incorporate the numerical Quickest Scheme into the toxic model –

Completed Implementation of Toxic Model cell mapping structure - Completed Code testing for sediment toxicant transport - Completed Conduct the simulation for lead - Completed Incorporating Nonpoint and Point Sources

Harbor Toxic Modeling FrameworkVIMS – Upper Bay Model

Hydrodynamic Model

coupled

Sediment Transport Model

Interface

Toxic Model

Interface

Harbor Toxic Modeling FrameworkVIMS –Hydrodynamic/Sediment Model Calibration stations

Toxic Toxic

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CLGCLG

WRGD

BS14BS17

BS101

MIHMIHMIH

TASRTASR

USGUSG

CSGCSGCSGCSG

EC

LI

P-W WTP

CC- WWTP

MTA-W B

CSX

MI-H PP

N

Toxic Point Source Loading to VIMS Model

Note: Point Source loadings from each outfall of the listed industries. They are distributed to the closest model cells.

Toxic Nonpoint Source Loading to VIMS Model

900

880

830

870

820

810

840

790

890

920

800

860

780

910

850

770

N

Jones F all

Gwynns Fall

Patapsco River

Note: Non-point source loadings from the watershed segments. They are evenly distributed to their adjacent model cells.

August 2002 Complete CHARM point source sampling – finalize data report Finalize watershed model report Continue working on calibrating hydrodynamic and toxic components Work with Stakeholders

December 2002 Finalize hydrodynamic calibration Preliminary Toxic Model calibration Sensitivity test of Nonpoint Source/Point Source load reduction using

UMCES Box Model. Work with Stakeholders

Progress/Future Actions

Harbor Eutrophication Modeling Program Estimate Nonpoint Source Loads - Watershed Modeling

Hydrologic Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) - Completed

Simulate Water Quality in Baltimore Harbor – Harbor Modeling – Final Stage

A 3-D Hydrodynamic Model - Curvilinear Hydrodynamic 3-Dimension (CH3D)

A 3-D Comprehensive Water Quality Model - CE-QUAL-ICM

A Sediment Diagenesis Model  

Harbor Eutrophication Modeling Framework

Watershed ModelHSPFHydrology (flow, TSS)

Hydrodynamic ModelCH3D Velocity, Diffusion, Surface Elevation,Salinity, Temperature

Water Quality ModelCE-QUAL-ICMTemperature, Salinity, Total Suspended Solid, Cyanobacteria/Diatoms/Algae, Carbon, Nitrogen, Phosphorus, COD, DO, Silica

Watershed ModelHSPFnutrients, sediments

Sediment Diagenesis ModelSediment initial condition, Sediment settling rate

Point Source and other loads

Water Quality Prediction

• Watershed (HSPF) – Completed (Internal/External Review Completed)

• Hydrodynamic Model – Completed• Water Quality Model – Final Stage (Internal Review Completed)

Current Eutrophication Model Status

August 2002 Watershed Model Completed Finalize Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Model Calibration Work with Stakeholders

December 2002 External Technical Review Meeting Sensitivity Test of Nonpoint Source/Point Source Load Reduction Preliminary Scenario Strategies Work with Stakeholders

Progress/Future Actions

Scenario Runs (Decision Criteria and Procedure)

Draft – For Discussion Purposes

Identify critical conditionDry, wet and average year, worse water quality, etc.

Current Progress case

Do hydrology/flow analysis to choose a representative year and use that year hydrology with current loading data to run the model

Scenario Runs (Decision Criteria and Procedure)

Calibrated Model

Delisting/Monitoring

No impairment

Impairment

Scenario Runs (Decision Criteria and Procedure)

Identify critical conditionDry, wet and average year, worse water quality, etc.

External vs. Internal SourceRemove and/or double both point and non-point source to see if internal source (sediment) is significant

Natural Recovery Time lineUse model to test the natural recovery time

External vs. Hydrodynamic in the HarborRemove or double individual subwatershed point and non-point sources to see if the hydrodynamic transport from other region is significant

Point vs. Nonpoint source in HarborRemove or double ps to see if nps is significantRemove or double nps to see if ps is significant

Internal important

External important

Internal & External equally important

Hydrodynamic important

External important

Scenario Runs (Decision Criteria and Procedure)

External vs. Hydrodynamic in the HarborRemove or double individual subwatershed point and non-point sources to see if the hydrodynamic transport from other region is significant

Point vs. Nonpoint source in HarborRemove or double ps to see if nps is significantRemove or double nps to see if ps is significant

Hydrodynamic important

External important

Point vs. Non-point source in subwatershedRemove or double ps to see if nps is significantRemove or double nps to see if ps is significant

Do entire harbor reduction scenarios

Do subwatershed reduction scenarios