modeling oil markets janie m. chermak, university of new mexico robert h patrick, rutgers university...
TRANSCRIPT
Modeling Oil Markets
Janie M. Chermak, University of New MexicoRobert H Patrick, Rutgers University
October 26, 2015
Literature
• Medlock and Jaffe (2009) 2007-2008 speculation• Hamilton (2009) speculation, OPEC, scarcity rent• Dvir & Rogoff (2009) 1896-2008 price behavior• Kilian (2010) S&D shocks• Kellogg (2014) Impact of infill drilling on investment
Components
• Demand (consumption, additions to storage)
• Supply (production, imports, withdrawals from storage)
• Futures
Demand(consumption, storage in)
Supply (base production, new production,
storage out, imports)
Storage
Futures(commercial and non-commercial traders)
Futures Market
Commercial (arbitrage) traders are those whose primary businesses are exposed to oil price fluctuations and hedge risks in futures markets to stabilize cash flows.
Non-commercial (speculative) traders speculate on crude oil price movements.
Contango/Backwardation
If C4>C1, then DIFF>0 – Contango
If C4<C1, DIFF<0 - Backwardation
Market(s)
Demand for Crude Oil
Inverse Supply of Crude Oil
Futures Price
Data from EIA, Baker Hughes: Weekly 1/1/1986 – 10/1/2015
Model (ARCH/GARCH- in means)
• Equation 1: Quantity Demanded is a function of:– WTI Spot Price [ -/- ] *– Prime Rate [+/+] *– + Change in Storage [ +/-] – S&P [+/+] *– Time [+/+] *– Binaries:
• Recession [-/-] *, 9/11[-/+] *
– Variance Terms• Recession (-/-)*; 9/11 (+/+)*
* Significant at 5% or greater
MODEL (ARCH GARCH - in means)
• Equation 2: WTI Spot Price is a function of:– Futures Price (+/+)* – Oil Rig Count (+/+)*– Production (+/+)*– Change in Storage (-/-)*– Contango/Backwardation (+/-)*– Open Interest
• NC Short (+/+)*; NC Long (-/-)*: NC Spread (+/+)*; CS Short (+/+)*; CL (-/-)*
– Variance Terms• CFMA (+/+)*; 9/11 (+/+)*
* Significant at 5% or greater
• Equation 3: Futures Price is a function of:– Open Interest (+/+)*– CFMA (+/+)*– S&P (+/+)*– Gold (-/+)*– Days of Storage (-/+)– Time (?/-)*– Variance Terms:
• 9/11 (+/+)*
MODEL (ARCH GARCH - in means)
* Significant at 5% or greater
ConclusionsMarket Fundamentals are Significant
Storage Is Significant
Shocks Are Significant
Financial Markets and Rules are Significant
Significance of Relative Impacts Changes Over Time
The Crude Oil Consumer’s Objective
Individual Demand for Crude
Individual Demand for Crude
The Producer’s Objective:
Aggregate Supply:
Individual Producer’s Supply:
Equilibrium without Storage or Futures
Storage