modeling primary energy substitution in asia pacific
DESCRIPTION
Washington DC, 11 October 2011. Modeling Primary Energy Substitution in Asia Pacific. Roberto F. Aguilera. OBJECTIVES. To present projections of the future energy mix in Asia Pacific using a Global Energy Market Model (GEM) To discuss effects of energy policy - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Modeling Primary Energy Substitution in Asia PacificRoberto F. Aguilera
Washington DC, 11 October 2011
CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW) www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme
Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics
OBJECTIVES To present projections of the future energy
mix in Asia Pacific using a Global Energy Market Model (GEM)
To discuss effects of energy policy
To assess the availability of natural gas
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Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics
Methodology
ASIA PACIFIC INCOME AND POPULATION
(1) Energy Consumption
(3) Gas Consumption
Rates
(4) Gas Availability
(2) Fractional Contributions
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Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics
1
10
100
1000
1
10
100
1000
1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025
YEAR
Asia Pacific Primary Energy Consumption, Quads
Primary Energy Consumption Per Capita, million BTU
Asia Pacific Population, Billions
Asia Pacific Population and Consumption
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Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics
Asia Pacific Energy Mix (Reference)
Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011c), Applied Energy, under review
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 20300
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1Solids - calculated
Gases - calculated
Liquids - calculated
Solids - measured
Gases - measured
Liquids - measured
YEAR
FRAC
TIO
N O
F M
ARK
ET
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Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics
Asia Pacific Energy Mix (Alternative 1)
Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011c), Applied Energy, under review
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 20300
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Solids - calculated
Gases - calculated
Liquids - calculated
Solids - measured
Gases - measured
Liquids - measured
YEAR
FRAC
TIO
N O
F M
ARK
ET
POLICIES:
Gas price setting
Coal subsidies
Restrict foreign investment
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Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics
Asia Pacific Energy Mix (Alternative 2)
Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011c), Applied Energy, under review
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 20300
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Solids - calculated
Gases - calculated
Liquids - calculated
Solids - measured
Gases - measured
Liquids - measured
YEAR
FRAC
TIO
N O
F M
ARK
ET
POLICIES:
Environmental (e.g. taxes on fuel, emissions, subsidies for NGVs,…)
Deregulation, privatization
Consistency across borders
Nuclear restrictions
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Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics
Asia Pacific H/C Ratio
Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011c), Applied Energy, under review
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 20300.1
1.0
10.0
H/C - measured
H/C - calculated (reference)
H/C - calculated (alt case 1)
H/C - calculated (alt case 2)
YEAR
RATI
O O
F HY
DRO
GEN
TO
CAR
BON
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Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics
Asia Pacific Gas Consumption
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
TRIL
LIO
N C
UBIC
FEE
T
YEAR
Gas Consumption (BP 2010)
Reference Case
Alternative Case 1
Alternative Case 2
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USGS World Petroleum Assessment (2000)
USGS (2000) divides Asia Pacific into 290 provinces
Evaluated 77 provinces for known + undiscovered gas quantities
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USGS World Petroleum Assessment (2000)Cumulative # of Gas
Provinces Endowment
Province Name Nt (TCFG)
TOTAL 1099.632
Northwest Shelf 1 120.956Kutei Basin 2 110.230Greater Sarawak Basin 3 101.411Malay Basin 4 75.614Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta 5 67.380Tarim Basin 6 65.719Baram Delta/Brunei-Sabah Basin 7 59.426North Sumatra Basin 8 40.682Browse Basin 9 38.053Bombay 10 37.137Bonaparte Gulf Basin 11 36.796Indus 12 35.560Irrawaddy 13 30.530South Sumatra Basin 14 28.455Sulaiman-Kirthar 15 28.376Bohaiwan Basin 16 24.186Sichuan Basin 17 22.837Northwest Java Basin 18 15.508Gippsland Basin 19 15.433New Guinea Foreland Basin-Fold Belt 20 11.000Bintuni/Sulawati Province 21 9.500Thai Basin 22 8.900Eromanga Basin 23 8.500Yingehai Basin 24 8.400Central Sumatra Basin 25 7.944
1. Northwest Shelf
2. Kutei Basin
3. Greater Sarawak Basin
4. Malay Basin
6. Tarim Basin
5. Ganges-Br. Delta
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Variable Shape Distribution (VSD) Model Used to estimate volumes natural gas in
previously unassessed provinces
Unlike other models, VSD is not based on an assumed distribution (e.g. Pareto or lognormal)
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Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy
1
10
100
1000
0.001 0.010 0.100 1.000 10.000 100.000 1000.000
Cum
ulat
ive
Num
ber o
f Pro
vinc
es
Size of Provinces (TCFG)
USGS (2000) data for 77 provinces = 1100 TCFG
Pareto (fractal) Distribution
VSD (Variable Shape Distribution) Model
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Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics
VSD (Variable Shape Distribution) Model
1
10
100
1000
0.001 0.010 0.100 1.000 10.000 100.000 1000.000
Cum
ulat
ive
Num
ber o
f Pro
vinc
es
Size of Provinces (TCFG)
USGS (2000) data for 77 provinces = 1100 TCFG
VSD for 77 provinces = 1101 TCFG (R2 = 0.99)
Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy
CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW) www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme
Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics
VSD (Variable Shape Distribution) Model
1
10
100
1000
0.001 0.010 0.100 1.000 10.000 100.000 1000.000
Cum
ulat
ive
Num
ber o
f Pro
vinc
es
Size of Provinces (TCFG)
USGS (2000) data for 77 provinces = 1100 TCFG
VSD for 77 provinces = 1101 TCFG (R2 = 0.99)
VSD for 290 provinces = 1437 TCFG
Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy
CRICOS Provider Code Curtin 00301J (WA) 02637B (NSW) www.business.curtin.edu.au/creme
Centre for Research in Energy and Minerals Economics
VSD (Variable Shape Distribution) Model
1
10
100
1000
0.001 0.010 0.100 1.000 10.000 100.000 1000.000
Cum
ulat
ive
Num
ber o
f Pro
vinc
es
Size of Provinces (TCFG)
USGS (2000) data for 77 provinces = 1100 TCFG
VSD for 77 provinces = 1101 TCFG (R2 = 0.99)
VSD for 290 provinces = 1437 TCFG
VSD for 290 provinces, plus Reserve Growth (55.92%) = 2240 TCFG
Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy
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Asia Pacific Natural Gas Endowment
Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy
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Asia Pacific Natural Gas Endowment
Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy
Cumulative Production(264 TCFG)Source: BP (2011)
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Distribution of Gas Endowment by Country
Australia22%
Bangladesh7%
Brunei3%
Cambodia0%
China17%
India 6%
Indonesia22%
Malaysia10%
Myanmar6%
Pakistan6%
Thailand1%
Vietnam0%
TOTAL:2,240 TCFG
Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011a), Applied Energy
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Asia Pacific Gas Supply Cost Curve
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 20000.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
2010 Technology
2030 Technology
Natural Gas Future Volume (TCFG)
US$
(201
0) p
er M
CF
Source: Aguilera and Ripple (2011b), WPC
Source: BP (2011)
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SHALE GAS
Source: Aguilera et al. (2008), World Petroleum Congress
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SHALE GAS TECHNOLOGY: HYDRAULIC FRACTURING
Source: American Petroleum Institute (2010)
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AUSTRALIAN GAS RESOURCE PYRAMID
Source: Geoscience Australia (2010)
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AUSTRALIAN SHALE GAS BASINS
Source: Geoscience Australia (2010) Source: adapted from USGS (2000)
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WORLD GAS SUPPLY CURVE
Source: Ripple (2011), Australian Ambassador’s Speaker Series
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WORLD GAS SUPPLY CURVE
Source: International Energy Agency (2009)
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CONCLUSIONS Natural gas in Asia Pacific more abundant and
economic than commonly assumed
Appropriate energy policy needed to access potential with minimal environmental impact
Gas will have positive impact on energy security, environment, economic growth
Modeling Primary Energy Substitution in Asia PacificTHANK YOU
Washington DC, 11 October 2011