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93
Modeling the Interactive Future ofInformation Technology Based onthe System's Dynamics Approach
Mehdi Fateh Rad1, Sahar Kousari2
1- Faculty Member of Academic Board, SharifUniversity of Technology
2- PhD Student in Future Studies, University ofTehran
Abstract
One of the methods for firms to be successful ininformation technology industry is to reduce theprobability of the failure by adopting flexiblescenarios and developing strategies for thedevelopment . Among the current scenario-making methods is the uncertainty approachusing Global Business Network (GBN) method.In GBN, each scenario is made out of the cross-impact of two or three driving forces that have ahigh associated uncertainty. On the other hand,each scenario has a series of variables thatinteract with each other and every tiny change ineach of these variables would have a huge impacton other variables. This can be extremelyimportant in the field of policy making. Thus,scenario modeling as a dynamic system canmake decision makerscapable of realizing thefuture risks and opportunities. Using systemdynamism approach, in this paper a dynamicmodel of a scenario in the field ofcommunications, along with a pre-foresight planwill be offered. Then using Vensim software, wewill study the effects of different components ofthis scenario on each other in five differentsituations in identifying the variables that havethe strongest effect in the growth of the GDP.We also examine the effect of government’sbudget on the IT infrastructure developmentand on the production of ICT equipment.
Corresponding Author: [email protected]
Additionally we specify how the mentionedincrease in the government's budget will affectthe governmental supportive policies (loans andtax exemptions) or the investments of the privatesector.
Keywords: System's Dynamic, Scenario, GBNMethod, Tele Communications.
Volume 4, Number 4, Summer 2012Journal of
Science & Technology Policy
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