modelling alternative fuel production technologies for denmark · modelling alternative fuel...

Modelling alternative fuel production technologies for Denmark 69th Semi-Annual ETSAP Meeting UCC, Cork - 30th May 2016

Giada VenturiniPhD StudentSystem AnalysisDTU Management [email protected]

DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark

Outline

• Introduction - Danish energy in figures

• Use of residual biomass

• Alternative pathways for the use of straw

• Scenarios in TIMES-DK

• Conclusions and further work

2 7 June 2016


Danish energy in figures

3 7 June 2016

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2010 2012 2013 2014 2015*

Primary Energy Production (PJ)

Crude Oil Natural Gas Waste, Non Renewable Renewable Energy

Input data retrieved from Danish Energy Agency, 2015 - http://www.ens.dk

• Renewable energy constitutes 22% of the total energy production in 2015• Biomass accounts for 54% of the renewable energy supply and 11% of the

total production in 2014

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2010 2012 2013 2014

Renewable Energy Supply (PJ)

Solar Wind Biomass Bio Oil Biogas Heat pumps


Residual biomass in Denmark• Straw from agriculture is one of the most abundant (and partially

unused) among residual biomass resources: 90 PJ/year.• Half of the harvested straw is left on fields, sparking the ongoing

discussion on its optimal use.

4 7 June 2016

23%

16%

11%

50%

Current use of straw (tons)

Energy Fodder Bedding Left on the field

Statistics Denmark, 2016Danish Energy Agency, 2015

25%

14%

3%9%

28%

21%

Energy use of biomass resources (PJ)

Straw Wood chips Wood pelletsWood waste Waste, biodegradable Wood


What is the optimal use of straw in the future?A number of alternative pathways can be considered:

1. Left on the fields

2. Production of biogas - anaerobic digestion

3. Heat and power - CHP plants and boilers

4. Production of 2G bioethanol

5. Production of synthetic natural gas (SNG) - gasification

6. Production of bioalcohols and biodiesel - gasification and Fischer-Tropsch synthesis

5 7 June 2016


1. Straw is left on the agriculture fields with consequent beneficial soilconditioning. Additional effects are change in soil carbon balance and CO2emissions.

Alternative pathways to enhance straw use

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PloughingStraw

Soil fertilizers

CO2-C


2. Straw is used as feedstock in anaerobic digester for the production ofbiogas. Digestate is a co-product which can be spread on fields as fertilizerand thus affecting the carbon storage.


7 7 June 2016

Straw

Waste

Manure Anaerobic Digestion

Biogas

Digestate Spreading on fields

FertilizersNPK

CO2-CCH4

Heat


2. Biogas can be upgraded to natural gas quality (SNG) either through CO2removal or by methanation with hydrogenation.


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Biogas

Methanation

Hydrogen

Electricity

SNG

Heat

Electricity

PSAC02 removal

SNG

CO2

Biogas


3. Straw can be combusted in district heating and individual boilers for theproduction of heat, and used in combined heat and power plants forproduction of heat and electricity.


9 7 June 2016

Avedøre Power Station, planning full conversionfrom coal to biomass - woodchips and straw(Copenhagen, Denmark)

Straw

Boiler

CHP PlantElectricity

Heat

Heat

Waste

Woodchips

Coal

Gas

CO2

CO2

Boiler


4. Straw can undergo hydrolysis and fermentation for the production ofbioalcohols, like bioethanol. Lignin is a co-product, which can be used forCHP production.


10 7 June 2016

Inbicon, bioethanol production from lignocellulosicbiomass (Kalundborg, Denmark)

StrawPretreatment

Hydrolysis Fermentation

Bio Ethanol

Lignin

CHP PlantHeat

Electricity


5. Laboratory/pilot biomass to liquid (BTL) technology in which strawundergoes thermal gasification and the output gas is used to synthetizebioalcohols and biodiesel. Ashes can be used as fertilizer and impact thecarbon stock.


11 7 June 2016

Straw Gasification SNG Fischer-Tropschsynthesis

Ashes Spreading on fields

FertilizersNPK

CO2-C

Bio Ethanol

Bio Kerosene

Bio Diesel

Heat

Electricity


Modelling in TIMES-DKMain assumptions• Least-cost optimization of the energy system for the period 2015-2050• Biomass resource potentials correspond to current availability (no

imports assumed)• Fertilizers NPK are valued at current market price• CO2 target in all scenarios for 100% fossil-free system 2050 (industrial,

residential and transport sector)• Additional target for transport sector - 10% renewable in 2020

Technology scenarios1. AGR: all straw potential is used only in the agriculture sector2. BGA: all straw potential is used only for biogas production3. CHP: all straw potential is used only in the heat and power sector4. ETOH: all straw potential is used only for bioethanol production5. BTL: all straw potential is used only in BTL technology6. OPT: optimal (least-cost) combination where all straw is used

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Optimal scenario - Straw

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Straw use - Optimal

BTL Biokerosene

BTL Bioethanol

Bioethanol 2G

Biogas AD

CHP plant

Boiler

Left on field


Optimal scenario - Transport sector

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0

50

100

150

200

250

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

PJ

Transport - Consumption

Natural Gas

Liquid petrol gas

Kerosene

Heavy Fuel Oil

Gasoline

Electricity (Central)

Diesel

Bioethanol G2

Bioethanol G1

Biodiesel G2

Biodiesel G1

Bio Synt. Nat. Gas G2

Bio Synt. Nat. Gas G1

Bio Kerosene G2

Bio Kerosene G1


Optimal scenario - Residential heating

15 7 June 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

PJ

Residential Heating - Consumption

Wood Pellets RES

Straw RES

Solar RES

Nat Gas RES

Electricity for Heating RES

Diesel RES

Decentralised District Heat RES

Centralised District Heat RES

BioDiesel RES

Bio Synt Nat Gas RES


Scenario results - Cost

16 7 June 2016

0

577

3294

198

-120

-1928

-3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000

AGR

BGA

CHP

ETOH

BTL

OPT

million €

Differential system cost


Scenario results - CO2 Emissions

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4750

4800

4850

4900

4950

5000

5050

5100

5150

5200

AGR BGA CHP ETOH BTL OPT

kton

CO2 Emissions (2050)


Scenario results - Fertilizers

18 7 June 2016

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

AGR

BGA

BTL

ETO

H

OPT

AGR

BGA

BTL

ETO

H

OPT

AGR

BGA

BTL

ETO

H

OPT

AGR

BGA

BTL

OPT

AGR

BGA

BTL

AGR

BGA

BTL

OPT

AGR

BGA

BTL

OPT

AGR

BGA

BTL

OPT

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

kton

Produced fertilizers

K N P


Scenario results - Fuel supply

19 7 June 2016

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

AGR BGA CHP ETOH BTL OPT

PJ

Fuel Supply (2050)

Synthetic Natural Gas

Petroleum

Liquid Petrol Gas

BioNaphta

Biokerosene G2

Decentral Heat

Central Heat

Bioethanol G2

Bioethanol G1

Biodiesel G2

Biodiesel G1


Discussion

• The economic assessment on the optimal use of straw highlights that acombination of technologies (BTL and biogas) is the most cost efficientwhile using straw for heat and power is the least attractive solution.

• However, the choice may have a minor impact on the rest of the energysystem.

• Uncertainty on cost and efficiencies of emerging technologies.

• Potential variability in the availability of straw across and within years(weather, cultivations, crops rotations)

• Wider environmental considerations with respect to the use of biomassmay have an impact on the optimal solution.

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Further work Pyroneer: small-scale gasifier (6 MW demonstration plant)

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Further workMaabjerg Energy Concept: co-production of biogas, bioethanol, wastetreatment, power and district heating.

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Further work Introducing more environmental considerations in TIMES-DK:

23 7 June 2016

What is the impact on the sustainability andGHG emissions in the agriculture andtransport sectors if biogenic emissions, useof land as well as soil and water pollutionare taken into account?


Thank you for your attention !Suggestions and questions?

24 7 June 2016

Giada VenturiniPhD Student

System AnalysisDTU Management Engineering

[email protected]

DTU Management Engineering, Technical University of Denmark25 7 June 2016

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

PJ

Power Production

CHP Solar PV Hydro Wind Offshore Wind Onshore

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