BenjaminGaubert1,L.Emmons1,J.Barré1 ,S.Tilmes1,K.Miyazaki2,K.Raeder3,J.L.Anderson3

ModellingKORUS-AQwithCAM-Chem

1Atmospheric Chemistry Observations & Modeling Laboratory (ACOM), National Center forAtmospheric Research, NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA2Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama 236-0001, Japan3Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences (IMAGe), National Center for AtmosphericResearch, NCAR, Boulder, CO, USA

WhyKorea?

TotalannualCOemissionsOharaetal.(2007)

Ø strongairqualitygradientsbothintimeandspaceØ RapidchangeinemissionsØ Alocalcontrastbetweenforests,citiesandIndustries

2005to20141980to2003

lineartrendinsurfaceNOxemissions(in10-11kg.m-2.s-1 perdecade)during2005–2014from

theaposterioriemissions

KORUS-AQcombinedassetsfromtheKoreanandU.S.atmosphericsciencecommunitiesandtheirsupportingorganizations(NIER,NASA,Universities,etc.)toimplementanintegratedobservingsystemforimprovingourunderstandingofAirQuality

Satellites- providebroadcoverage,continuity- butitneedsreliableinformationonnear-surfaceexposure.

Airbornesampling- providescriticalviewforevaluationstrategiesinconnectingground-basedandsatelliteobservations- Shortterm

Groundmonitoring- Itwillcontinuetobetheprimarymethodformonitoringexposure.- Coverageislimited.

Modeling- provide Airqualityforecastingandwarningservice

- butitneedsreliableinformationonemissioninventoryandsoon.

KORUS-AQ Goals• Improvecapabilityforsatelliteremotesensingofairquality

• Betterunderstandingofthefactorscontrollingairquality

• Testandimprovemodelsimulationofairquality

Question1:Howsignificantistheimpactofthelargepointsources(powerplantsandpetrochemicalplants)alongthewestcoasttotheairqualityofSMAtemporallyandspatially?

Question2:Canweidentify1)theportionofaerosolderivedfromsecondaryproductioninSMAandacrossKorea,and2)themajorsourcesandfactorscontrollingitsvariation?

Question3:IsozoneformationinSMANOxlimitedorVOClimited?Canwedeterminethebiogenicornaturalcontributionstoozoneproduction?

Question4:HowisSMAaffectedbytransportofairpollutionfromsourcesfromregionaltocontinentaltohemisphericscales?

Question5:HowwelldoKORUS-AQobservationssupportcurrentemissionsestimates(e.g.,NOx,VOCs,SOx,NH3)bymagnitudeandsector?

ØCESM2ØGridspacing:0.9x1.25⁰ØCAM6 physics/SpecifieddynamicsfromGEOSØChemistryMOZARTTroposphereStratosphere(TS1),mam4aerosolscheme,SOA-VBSØCLM5withprognosticMEGANbiogenicemissionsØEmissions:üAnthropogenic: KORUS-CREATEinEast-Asia,HTAP2andCCMIotherwiseüBiomassBurning:FireINventoryfromNCAR(FINN1.5)(Wiedinmyeretal.2011)üPrescribedMethanederivedfromsurfaceobservations,updatedfilefromCMIP6(Meinshausenetal.2017)

TagsName TagsRegion TagssectorCO01 Global AnthroCO02 Global BBCO03 Global OceanCO04 Global BiogenicCO05 Korea AnthroCO06 Japan AnthroCO07 East-Asia AnthroCO08 Europe AnthroCO09 NAM AnthroCO10 RestofNH AnthroCO11 SH AnthroMapofCOtagsfromanthropogenicsourcesonly

(CO05toCO11)

DC8ObservationsØ SimpleevaluationoftheCAM-Chemsimulationandsensitivityexperiments

Ø Yellowsea:pollutiontransportcapability(includingrecirculation)andinflowquantifications(blackbox)

Ø SeoulMetropolitanArea(redbox)

SensitivitytoNOxemissionsØEmissions(Bottom-upcase1):üAnthropogenic: KORUS-CREATEinEast-Asia,HTAP2andCCMIotherwise

üBiomassBurning:FireINventoryfromNCAR(FINN1.5)(Wiedinmyeretal.2011)

üPrescribedsurfacemethane(CMIP6)

SensitivitytoNOxemissionsØEmissions(Bottom-upcase1):üAnthropogenic: KORUS-CREATEinEast-Asia,HTAP2andCCMIotherwise

üBiomassBurning:FireINventoryfromNCAR(FINN1.5)(Wiedinmyeretal.2011)

üPrescribedsurfacemethane(CMIP6)

ØEmissions(Top-downcase2):üAllthesamebutwithdifferentsurfaceNOemissions(soil,anthropogenicandBB)

ØEmissions(Top-downcase):üMIROC-ChemmodelwithEDGARandGFED

üDirectconstraintsonNOxemissionsfromNO2assimilation(OMI,SCIAMACHY,andGOME-2)

üIndirectconstraintsthroughMOPITT-CO,MLSO3 andHNO3 andTES-O3

SensitivitytoNOxemissions

SensitivitytoNOxemissions(averageMay2016)

SensitivitytoNOxemissions(averageJune2016)

EvaluationagainstDC8Observations:Yellowsea

AllvaluesareinppbCH2OandC2H6inppt

AllvaluesareinppbCH2Oinppt

EvaluationagainstDC8Observations:SeoulMetropolitanArea

EvaluationagainstDC8Observations:SeoulMetropolitanArea

AllvaluesareinppbCH2Oinppt

EvaluationagainstDC8Observations(yellowsea)COTags

EvaluationagainstDC8ObservationsSeoulMetropolitanAreaCOTags

EvaluationagainstDC8ObservationsSeoulMetropolitanAreaCOTags

ØYellowseapollutionlevelsaresimilartoSeoulv Withsignificantlevelsoftransportedpollutionv Averageozoneof60ppb

Ø Secondarypollutantsareoverestimated(CH2O,O3),whichleadstoagoodaverageCOduetosecondaryproduction

ØCH4 variationsandVOC’sarelargelyunderestimated

ØPreliminaryresultsofCESM2/CAM-ChemØGridspacingsurelyplayarole

v Needtoidentifylargescaletransportandbackgroundv Avoidcomparisonwithlocalandunresolvedplumesv Makesurethetemporalsamplingiscoherent

ØIdentifycontributionfromstratosphericozoneØEvaluatechemicalregimesofozoneproduction

Conclusions

ØAssimilationofMOPITTV7withmeteorologicalobservations

Ø ImproveensembledesigntoestimateemissionsandconcentrationsØ Uncertaintyofemissionsand(chemistrybalance)using

v anensembleofemissioninventories(anthropogenicandBBseparately)frombothtop-downandbottom-upinventories

ØPerturbingofchemicalkineticsofkeyreactions(Ridleyetal.2017,GRL)

Perspectives

Thanksforyourattention

EvaluationagainstDC8Observations(yellowsea)COTags