Email: agustin.delprado@bc3research.orghttp://www.land-ghg.net/

Del Prado, A.1; ; Shepherd, A.2; Wu, L.2,3, Topp, C.3, Moran, D.3, Tolkamp, B.3, Gallejones P.1, Chadwick, D.R.2

1) BC3-Basque Centre For Climate Change (Spain) 2) Rothamstead Res., North Wyke (UK) 3) SAC Research, Edinburgh, (UK)

Modelling the effect of climate change on environmental pollution losses from UK dairy systems

Edinburgh, 15-04-2011Funded by(AC0307)

• Climate change affects crop productivity

• But climate directly affects nutrient cycling (eg. N, C) also and therefore environmental losses [NO3

- leaching, NH3, N2O, NOx, CH4].

Changes in NUE in plants and animals may also affect indirectly environmental losses

INTRODUCTION

http://www.ecn.nl/units/bkm/environmental-research/air-quality-and-climate-change/integral-nitrogen-theme/the-nitrogen-cascade/

• The objective of this study is to analyse the potential impacts of climate change per se on pollution losses from dairy systems in Britain.

MAIN OBJECTIVE

CLIMATE CHANGE IN BRITAINAnnual precipitation (medium)

2070-2099

Source: http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk/

CLIMATE CHANGE IN BRITAIN

Summer mean temp (medium) winter mean temp (medium)

2070-2099 2070-2099

Source: http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk/

CLIMATE CHANGE IN BRITAIN

An example of the effect on crop productivity-related variable (e.g. growing season)

INTEGRATED MODELLING APPROACH

LOCATIONFARM TYPOLOGIES

Modelling grassland prod.

• Dates of cuts• DM yield• Digestibility• Crude protein

Pollution/ha /Lmilk(impacts)

NW

FARM

Modified version

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Day number

Soil

moi

stur

e, m

m/m

m

Meas'd soil msim'd soil m

New soil-water balance submodel

UKCIP02-baseline, 2020s, 2050s, 2080s(50 years of each time slice)

SITE ASUMPTIONS

Regions Typical soil type

EE: East England Clay Loam

EM: East Midlands Loam

NE: North East Clay Loam

NW: North West Clay Loam

SC: Scotland Clay Loam

SE: South East Clay Loam

SW: South West Clay Loam

WA: Wales Loam

WM: West Midlands Clay Loam

YH: Yorkshire and Humberside Clay Loam

Typical soil types associated to dairy livestock systems in 10 regions of the UK

SW SE

WMEM

EE

NW

YH

NE

WA

SC

Simulates the effect of management x genetics x soil x climate on

Optimisationfarm scale (holistic)GHG: includes pre-farm gate GHG Time-step: monthlyIncorporates maize, clover and grass as posible

forages to growSemi process-based

CharacteristicsCharacteristics

N and P flows, transformations & losses in the soil-plant-animal

Losses of CH4

Animal performance & needsFarm economicsOther atributes of sustainability

Rothamsted+ ADAS + Reading U.+ Exeter U. + ALTERRA

Full description original version:Del Prado et al., (in review)

RESULTS: CHANGES IN GRASS PRODUCTIVITY

SW SE

WMEM

EE

NWYH

NE

WA

SC

•In general, CC increased plant biomass production and grazing potential season•Large increase in WA and EM•Lowest increase in SE and SW (in decline in 2080s:drier growing season)

•In general: changes Due to increase in light intensity, balance between greater temperatures but some smaller rainfall

RESULTS: CHANGES IN PRODUCTIVITY (MILK)

SW SE

WMEM

EE

NWYH

NE

WA

SC

RESULTS: CHANGES IN N2O LOSSES PER L OF MILK

SWSE

WM

EM

EE

NW

YH

NE

WA

SC

General decrease

ExceptionsWA (-2020s)NW (-2050)YH (-2080)NE (from 2050)SC (from 2080)

RESULTS: CHANGES IN N2O LOSSES (EXAMPLES)

SW SE

WMEM

EE

NWYH

NE

WA

SCSC

EE

SW

RESULTS: CHANGES IN NOx LOSSES

SWSE

WM

EM

EE

NW

YH

NE

WA

SC

General increase: SW, WA (-2080s), WM, EM, EE, NW (-2050), YH (-2080), NE (from 2050), SC (from 2080)

  N2O* NOx

SW    SEWAWMEMEENWYHNESC    

PS

PS

PS

*N2O does not increase for all time-slices

RESULTS: CHANGES IN NH3 LOSSES/L MILK

Very Variable

EE SW

SC

SW SE

WMEM

EE

NW

YH

NE

WA

SC

RESULTS: CHANGES IN NO3 LEACHING LOSSES

SW SE

WMEM

EE

NW

YH

NE

WA

SC

General increase (no increase in WM, EE) and very variable:

EE

SW

EM

RESULTS: CHANGES IN NO3 LEACHING LOSSES

Example of variability of distribution for leaching: EE

RESULTS: LOOKING AT THE WHOLE PICTURE

Poorer values are represented outside blue shape

Conclusions

•Climate change affects pollution losses from dairy farms

•Productivity increases and affects positively emissions expressed per unit of product

•Some emissions will however increase due to changes in processes related to N and C cycles (NOx, NO3 leaching).

• Some losses have large variability due to climate change variability per se (NO3 leaching).

•GHG will remain unchanged/decreased as a result of an increase in CH4 and a decrease in N2O emissions.

Soil quality and biodiversity may be affected too