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Page 1: Models

Graham’s use of the word “paradox” is probably an allusion to a classicarticle by David Durand, “Growth Stocks and the Petersburg Paradox,” TheJournal of Finance, vol. XII, no. 3, September, 1957, pp. 348–363, whichcompares investing in high-priced growth stocks to betting on a series ofcoin flips in which the payoff escalates with each flip of the coin. Durandpoints out that if a growth stock could continue to grow at a high rate foran indefinite period of time, an investor should (in theory) be willing to payan infinite price for its shares. Why, then, has no stock ever sold for aprice of infinity dollars per share? Because the higher the assumed futuregrowth rate, and the longer the time period over which it is expected, thewider the margin for error grows, and the higher the cost of even a tiny miscalculationbecomes. Graham discusses this problem further in Appendix 4(p. 570).company’s balance sheet, and as having a justification or supportindependent of the fluctuating market prices. The premium overbook value that may be involved can be considered as a kind ofextra fee paid for the advantage of stock-exchange listing and themarketability that goes with it.A caution is needed here. A stock does not become a soundinvestment merely because it can be bought at close to its assetvalue. The investor should demand, in addition, a satisfactory ratioof earnings to price, a sufficiently strong financial position, and theprospect that its earnings will at least be maintained over the years.This may appear like demanding a lot from a modestly pricedstock, but the prescription is not hard to fill under all but dangerouslyhigh market conditions. Once the investor is willing to forgobrilliant prospects—i.e., better than average expected growth—hewill have no difficulty in finding a wide selection of issues meetingthese criteria.In our chapters on the selection of common stocks (Chapters 14and 15) we shall give data showing that more than half of the DJIAissues met our asset-value criterion at the end of 1970. The mostwidely held investment of all—American Tel. & Tel.—actually sellsbelow its tangible-asset value as we write. Most of the light-andpowershares, in addition to their other advantages, are now (early1972) available at prices reasonably close to their asset values.The investor with a stock portfolio having such book valuesbehind it can take a much more independent and detached view ofstock-market fluctuations than those who have paid high multipliersof both earnings and tangible assets. As long as the earningpower of his holdings remains satisfactory, he can give as littleattention as he pleases to the vagaries of the stock market. Morethan that, at times he can use these vagaries to play the mastergame of buying low and selling high.The A. & P. ExampleAt this point we shall introduce one of our origina