moderated by: ryan beall - overdrive · managing director & * truck driver supply and demand...

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FTR State of FreightWebinar Series

July 9, 2015

Stay in Contactwww.FTRintel.com

[email protected]

STATE OF FREIGHT:

KEY TRANSPORTATION ISSUES

M O D E R AT E D B Y:RYAN BEALL

BU S I N E S S D E V E LO P M E N T M A N AG E R , F T R@ RC B E A L L _ F T R

2

STATE OF FREIGHTUPCOMING WEBINARS

Second Thursday of the Month @ 11 a.m.

August 13th – Current Rail Environment September – No Webinar - Annual Conference October – 2016 Economic Outlook

More info or register for upcoming webinars at: www.FTRintel.com/webinars

3

September 15-17 • Indianapolis, IN

www.FTRConference.com

Early Bird Registration Extended to

July 15th

4

WEBINAR REPLAY AVAILABILITY

Replay will be available by Monday, July 13th

Email will be sent out once it is available


Noël PerrySenior Consultant, FTR

(888) 988.1699 [email protected]

www.FTRintel.com

July 9, 2015

Jonathan StarksDirector of Transportation Analysis, FTR


Larry GrossSenior Consultant, FTR


6

Are the regulatory risks a real threat?

77

NOËL PERRY President – Transportation Economics

30 year transportation veteran

Has held senior research positions at Schneider National, CSX and Cummins Enginer

Substantial experience with truck, rail, barge and transport supplier segments

Specialties include: Shipper logistics * North American transportation demand * Carrier competition * Truck driver supply and demandManaging Director &

Senior Consultant

8

WHEN HIRING REQUIREMENTS SPIKE - THE CARRIERS GET BEHIND

Source: FTR

(75,000)

(50,000)

(25,000)

-

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

175,000

2011

.1

2012

.1

2013

.1

2014

.1

2015

.1

2016

.1

2017

.1

2018

.1

Additional Hires CSARegional EquipmentMexicoImmigration EffectsHealth Regulations and TreatmentELDHOSMotor Carrier Protection ActSafe Food TransportationIndependent Contractor RulesPattern Of ViolationProhibition Of CoercionDrug & Alcohol Data BaseEntry ProficiencySafe HarborMinimum InsuranceOSHA Worker ProtectionTraining ProvisionsSpeed LimitersElectronic Stability Controls

9

CAPACITY UTILIZATION & SURGE CAPACITY

Source: FTR

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%

120%

1992

.119

93.1

1994

.119

95.1

1996

.119

97.1

1998

.119

99.1

2000

.120

01.1

2002

.120

03.1

2004

.120

05.1

2006

.120

07.1

2008

.120

09.1

2010

.120

11.1

2012

.120

13.1

2014

.120

15.1

2016

.120

17.1

2018

.1

FTR Active Capacity UtilizationSeasonally Adjusted

Capacity Utilization Surge Capacity

10

PRICING & CAPACITY UTILIZATION

Source: FTR, ATA, CASS, Truckstop.com

85%

87%

89%

91%

93%

95%

97%

99%

101%

103%

$1.40

$1.50

$1.60

$1.70

$1.80

$1.90

$2.00

$2.10

$2.20

$2.30

$2.4020

09.1

2009

.220

09.3

2009

.420

10.1

2010

.220

10.3

2010

.420

11.1

2011

.220

11.3

2011

.420

12.1

2012

.220

12.3

2012

.420

13.1

2013

.220

13.3

2013

.420

14.1

2014

.220

14.3

2014

.420

15.1

2015

.2

Cap

acity

Util

izat

ion

Pric

e Pe

r M

ile

Pricing And Capacity Utilization

ATA Spot Cass Cap U

11

What is driving the recent declines in rail carload?

1212

LARRY GROSS President – Gross Transportation Consulting

30-year transportation veteran

Held positions with RoadRailer, Thrall Car, Wabash National Corp.

Experienced in intermodal and motor carrier and railroad supply sectors

Specialties include: Intermodal transport * Rail and highway equipment * Motor carrier economics

Senior Consultant

1313

N.A. CARLOADS THRU WEEK 254-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE

200

250

300

350

400

450

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Thou

sand

s

Carloads Vs. Prev. Year CarloadsSource: AAR

Source: AAR

1414

Q2 CARLOAD Y/Y VOLUME CHANGE Q2 THRU 6/27

-7%

-7%

-15%

0%

-7%

2%

-3%

-2%

0%

-3%

-1%

-1%

-5%

0%

-12%

3%

-10%

-1%

-7%

(25) (13)

(18)

(226

)

(17) (5

)

2

(4)

(1)

0

(3)

(6)

(3)

(8) (0)

(23)

10

(7)

(0)

12

(335

)

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

Thou

sand

s

Year/Year % Change (Left Axis) Y/Y Change in Carloads (000's) (Right Axis)Source: AAR

Source: AAR

1515

N.A. SELECTED CARLOADS THRU 6/27 - 4-WEEK MOVING AVG.

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Thou

sand

s


Excludes: Grain, Coal, Petroleum Products

Source: AAR

1616

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Thou

sand

s


N.A. COAL CARLOADS THRU 6/27 - 4-WEEK MOVING AVG.

Source: AAR

1717

AVERAGE CLASS I TRAIN SPEEDS ALL TRAINS

20.0

20.5

21.0

21.5

22.0

22.5

23.0

23.5

24.0

24.5

Ave

rage

Tra

in S

peed

-M

PH

+3.1% vs. 2014-5.9% vs. 2013

Source: Railroad RPM Data

1818

SEASONAL ADJUSTMENTS REVEAL DOMESTIC NOT GROWING MUCH

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

950

1050

1150

1250

1350

1450

1550

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Total (Left Axis) International (Right Axis) Domestic (Right Axis)

Sources: GTC, FTR, IANA; Copyright 2015 Current 12 Months

Sources: IANA ETSO, FTR

1919

MAY WAS A WEAK MONTH FOR DOMESTIC

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

International Domestic TotalSources: GTC, FTR, IANA; Copyright 2015


2020

JUNE GROWTH LOOKS LIKE ABOUT 4% OVERALL


-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

7/12

/14

8/2/

14

8/23

/14

9/13

/14

10/4

/14

10/2

5/14

11/1

5/14

12/6

/14

12/2

7/14

1/17

/15

2/7/

15

2/28

/15

3/21

/15

4/11

/15

5/2/

15

5/23

/15

6/13

/15

7/4/

15

Thou

sand

s

AAR Weekly Intermodal Loadings(North American 4 Week Rolling Average)

Y/Y% Change North AmericaSources: GTC, FTR, AAR; Copyright 2015

21

The economy and manufacturing are soft, but truck operations are holding

up well. What is occurring?

2222

JONATHAN STARKS Director, Transportation Analysis

10+ years in the freight transportation sector

Directly responsible for producing FTR's Freight-cast transportation model, producing more than 13 million datapoints and 85,000 forecasted items each and every month

Specialties include: Carrier Analysis * Equipment Demand * Jedi Master * Transportation Economics

23

MANUFACTURING WEAKNESS

303540455055606570

Jan-

01Ja

n-02

Jan-

03Ja

n-04

Jan-

05Ja

n-06

Jan-

07Ja

n-08

Jan-

09Ja

n-10

Jan-

11Ja

n-12

Jan-

13Ja

n-14

Jan-

15

ISM Manufacturing Index

Sources: Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Report on Business; Census Bureau

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Core Capital Goods Orders

2424

LOADINGS ARE WEAKENING

Total Truck Loadings Super Long-Haul Loadings(>550 miles)

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

2013

.06

2013

.12

2014

.06

2014

.12

2015

.06

2015

.12

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

2013

.06

2013

.12

2014

.06

2014

.12

2015

.06

2015

.12

2525

PROFITS ARE GOOD -COST MIX IS CHANGINGNet Profit Margins(excluding FSC Rev) Wages

-5.0%

-2.5%

0.0%

2.5%

5.0%

7.5%

10.0%

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

-22% -20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015


Noël PerrySenior Consultant, FTR


www.FTRintel.com

July 9, 2015

Jonathan StarksDirector of Transportation Research, FTR


Larry GrossSenior Consultant, FTR


27

Q & A

Type a question into the `Question’ pane.

We will attempt to answer as many of your questions

as time permits

28

FREIGHT FOCUS

Shippers Update

Rail Update

Trucking Update

www.FTRintel.com/Freight-Focus

Intermodal Update

29

STATE OF FREIGHT INSIGHTS

Monthly analysis & commentary on the transport markets• The influence of the economy on transportation

(volume, prices, capacity)

• Management decision making

• The meaning of industry statistics

• Freight and purchase cycle dynamics

• Trends in productivity

• Driver labor

www.FTRintel.com/SOFinsights

FEATURING NOËL PERRY

30

Q & A

Type a question into the `Question’ pane.

We will attempt to answer as many of your questions

as time permits

31

REPLAY/SLIDES WILL BE AVAILABLE A replay, along with slides, will be available by Monday, July 12th

Free for all current FTR Subscribers

Check your email to find out when it is ready

Feel free to follow up at any time with any of our speakers, or anyone else on the FTR team

Phone: 888.988.1699

Email: [email protected]

Thank You!www.FTRintel.com

moderated by: ryan beall - overdrive · managing director & * truck driver supply and demand...

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