modis polar winds in ecmwf’s data assimilation system:
DESCRIPTION
MODIS Polar Winds in ECMWF’s Data Assimilation System: Long-term Performance and Recent Case Studies. Lueder von Bremen, Niels Bormann and Jean-Noël Thépaut. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reading, United Kingdom. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
MODIS Polar Winds in ECMWF’sData Assimilation System:
Long-term Performance and Recent Case Studies
Lueder von Bremen, Niels Bormann and Jean-Noël Thépaut
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)Reading, United Kingdom
High Latitude NWP Workshop at IARC, Fairbanks, 8-10 October 2003
History and use of MODIS Polar Winds at ECMWF
Long-term performance a) one satellite (Terra) b) two satellites (Terra and Aqua)
Case study
Conclusions and prospects
OUTLINE
History of MODIS AMVs at ECMWF
trial 3DVAR experiments with MODIS Terra AMVs very successful (spring 2001)operational archiving of MODIS Terra AMVs since July 20024DVAR experiments with MODIS Terra AMVs i) 2 study periods (spring 2001 and summer 2002, 58 cases) ii) operational configuration (T159 60L analysis and T511 forecast) iii) usage like geostationary AMVs iv) modification of mean polar wind analyses v) reduction of key analysis errors in case study experiment vi) good impact on forecast over NH (especially over Europe and N. Atlantic)operational use of MODIS AMVs (Terra) since 14 Jan 2003operational archiving of MODIS Aqua AMVs since Feb 2003 monitoring since May 20034DVAR experiments with MODIS Aqua AMVs are described here (operational analysis and model configuration)
Pre-Processing and usage of MODIS AMVs
Usage: Land: above 400 hPa Ocean/Ice: IR above 700hPa WV above 550hPa
FG check: asymmetric to remove negative OBS-FG bias (FG-Dep. is scaled with background error)
Thinning: 2 cycles with different box/volume sizes (96x96km then 140x140km)
wind speed
0 20 40 60 80FG
0
20
40
60
80
SAT
OB
W
VM
V(
163
047)
5
30
10
751
50
300
600
lat: 20 - 90
lon: -180 - 180
p : 400 - 700
wind speed
0 20 40 60 80FG
0
20
40
60
80
SAT
OB
W
VM
V(
235
658)
5
30
10
7515
030
060
0
lat: 20 - 90
lon: -180 - 180
p : 0 - 400
wind speed
0 20 40 60 80FG
0
20
40
60
80
SAT
OB
W
VM
V(
39
548)
5
75
30
10
150
300
600
lat: -90 - -20
lon: -180 - 180
p : 400 - 700
wind speed
0 20 40 60 80FG
0
20
40
60
80
SAT
OB
W
VM
V(
8
484)
510
30
75
lat: -90 - -20
lon: -180 - 180
p : 0 - 400
MODIS TERRA winds WVMV 0001: 2003063006-2003063012 (N= 446737)WV clear 400hPa<h<550hPa
all
FG [m/s]
OB
S [
m/s
]
wind speed
0 20 40 60 80FG
0
20
40
60
80
SAT
OB
W
VM
V(
15
249)
510
3075150
300
lat: 20 - 90
lon: -180 - 180
p : 400 - 700
wind speed
0 20 40 60 80FG
0
20
40
60
80
SAT
OB
W
VM
V(
26
376)
5
10
3075150300
lat: 20 - 90
lon: -180 - 180
p : 0 - 400
wind speed
0 20 40 60 80FG
0
20
40
60
80
SAT
OB
W
VM
V(
3
464)
5
10
30
75
5
lat: -90 - -20
lon: -180 - 180
p : 400 - 700
wind speed
0 20 40 60 80FG
0
20
40
60
80
SAT
OB
W
VM
V(
1
030)
5 10
lat: -90 - -20
lon: -180 - 180
p : 0 - 400
MODIS TERRA winds WVMV 0001_used: 2003062618-2003070900 (N= 46119)
used
FG [m/s]
OB
S [
m/s
]
OBS errors:
AMV
AIREP
PILOT,SONDE
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0obs error [m/s]
1000.
100.
10.
pres
sure
[hP
a]
500 hPa Z anomaly correlation (58 days)
Bormann and Thépaut,2003(spring 2001 and summer 2002)
LONG-TERM PERFORMANCE
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
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0.1
0.1
0.1
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0.1
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
544
560
560
560
560
576
576
576
576
576
40°N
40°N40
°N
40°N
50°N
60°N
70°N
80°N
180°160°W140°W
12
0°W
10
0°W
80
°W6
0°W
40°W 20°W 0° 20°E 40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E160°E
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
-0.12
-0.04
-0.0
4
-0.0
4
-0.04
-0.0
4
-0.04
-0.04
0.04
0.04
0.04
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544
560
560
560
560
576
576
576
576
576
40°N
40°N40
°N
40°N
50°N
60°N
70°N
80°N
180°160°W140°W
40°W 20°W 0° 20°E 40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E160°E
-0.28
-0.24
-0.2
-0.16
-0.12
-0.08
-0.04
0.04
0.08
0.12
0.16
0.2
0.24
0.28
absolute values Difference Modis-Control
Sensitivity perturbations for streamfunction around 500 hPaPositive impact of MODIS (negative differences) occurs whereSensitivity patterns are large
Sensitivity results: 4 August 2002, 12 Z
FG
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FG FGFG
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FGFGFG
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FGFGFG FG
FGFG FG
FGFG FG FG
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FG FGFG
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FG FGFG
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FGFG
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FG FGFG FG
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FGFG FG
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FGFG
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FGFGFG
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FGFG
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FG FG
FG
FGFGFG
FG
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FG
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FGFG
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FGFG
FG FG
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FG FG
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FG FG
FG
FGFG
FGFGFG
FG
FGFG FGFG FG
FG
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FG FG
FG FG
FGFG
FG
FG FGFG
FGFG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FGFG
FGFG
FG
FG FGFG
FG
FGFG
FG FG
FGFG FG FG
FG FGFG
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FGFGFG
FGFGFG
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FG
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FG
FG
FGFG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
4D
4D
4D
4D
FGFGFG
FGFG
FG
FGFG FG
FG FG
FG
FG
FG
FGFG
FG
FG
FG
FG FG
FGFG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FGFG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FGFG
FGFGFG
FG
FG
FG FG
FG FG
4D
4D
FG
4D
FG FGFG
FG
FG
FG
FGFG
FG
FG
4D
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FGFG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FGFG
FG FG
FG
FG
FG
4D
FG
FGFG
FGFG
FG
FG
FG
FGFG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FGFG 4D
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
4D FG
FG
FGFG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FGFG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
4D 4D
FG
FG
4DFG
FG
FGFG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FGFG
FGFG
FG FG
FG
FG
4D
FG
FGFG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
4D
FG
FG
FG4D
FG
4D4D
4D
FG FG
FG
FG
4D
FG
FG
4D
FGFG
FGFG
FG
4D
FG
FG
FG
50°N
50°N
50°N
50°N
60°N
70°N
80°N
180°160°W140°W
120°W
100°W
80°W
60°W
40°W 20°W 0° 20°E 40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E160°E
Modis Terra and Aqua data coverage at May 27, 2003 12Z
Light: 06ZDark: 12Z
Experiments with MODIS (Terra and Aqua)
2 study periods Feb. and May 2003, 51 cases revision of MODIS impact in general and clean control to monitor both i) noMODIS (gives chance for clean OBS-FG statistic for Terra and Aqua) ii) Terra (operational usage (140km thinning)) iii) Terra+Aqua (140km thinning) iv) BOTH200km (Terra and Aqua with 200km thinning and QI usage)
stronger OBS-FG bias for Aqua over Antarctic than for Terra
all U MODIS (AQUA) WVCLSATOB-Uwind S.Pole-60efli_784 2003050812-2003051818(24)
0
0
36
24121
75497
13144
2164
252
0
0
+0
+0
+8
-2252
+21407
+3532
+744
+90
+0
+0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
STD.DEV
1000
850
700
500
400
300
250
200
150
100
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
BIAS
1000
850
700
500
400
300
250
200
150
100
background departure o-b(ref)background departure o-banalysis departure o-a(ref)analysis departure o-a
all V MODIS (AQUA) WVCLSATOB-Vwind S.Pole-60efli_784 2003050812-2003051818(24)
0
0
36
24121
75497
13144
2164
252
0
0
+0
+0
+8
-2252
+21407
+3532
+744
+90
+0
+0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
STD.DEV
1000
850
700
500
400
300
250
200
150
100
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
BIAS
1000
850
700
500
400
300
250
200
150
100
background departure o-b(ref)
background departure o-banalysis departure o-a(ref)analysis departure o-a
all U MODIS (AQUA) WVCLSATOB-windspeedspeed S.Pole-60efli_784 2003050812-2003051818(24)
0
0
36
24121
75497
13144
2164
252
0
0
+0
+0
+8
-2252
+21407
+3532
+744
+90
+0
+0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
STD.DEV
1000
850
700
500
400
300
250
200
150
100
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
BIAS OF SPEED
1000
850
700
500
400
300
250
200
150
100
background departure o-b(ref)
background departure o-banalysis departure o-a(ref)analysis departure o-a
all U MODIS (AQUA) IRSATOB-Uwind S.Pole-60efli_784 2003050812-2003051818(24)
4
2082
14250
28904
30190
24441
8043
345
10
2
-31
-1336
-1282
-374
+3506
+7305
+2337
-28
-19
-6
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
STD.DEV
1000
850
700
500
400
300
250
200
150
100
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
BIAS
1000
850
700
500
400
300
250
200
150
100
background departure o-b(ref)background departure o-banalysis departure o-a(ref)analysis departure o-a
all V MODIS (AQUA) IRSATOB-Vwind S.Pole-60efli_784 2003050812-2003051818(24)
4
2082
14250
28904
30190
24441
8043
345
10
2
-31
-1336
-1282
-374
+3506
+7305
+2337
-28
-19
-6
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
STD.DEV
1000
850
700
500
400
300
250
200
150
100
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
BIAS
1000
850
700
500
400
300
250
200
150
100
background departure o-b(ref)
background departure o-banalysis departure o-a(ref)analysis departure o-a
all U MODIS (AQUA) IRSATOB-windspeedspeed S.Pole-60efli_784 2003050812-2003051818(24)
4
2082
14250
28904
30190
24441
8043
345
10
2
-31
-1336
-1282
-374
+3506
+7305
+2337
-28
-19
-6
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
STD.DEV
1000
850
700
500
400
300
250
200
150
100
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10
BIAS OF SPEED
1000
850
700
500
400
300
250
200
150
100
background departure o-b(ref)
background departure o-banalysis departure o-a(ref)analysis departure o-a
WV cloud IR
Aqua
Terra
20.0m/s
60°N
60°N60
°N
60°N
70°N
80°N
180°160°W140°W
120°W
100°W
80°W
60°W
40°W 20°W 0° 20°E 40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Friday 9 May 2003 12UTC 500hPa **u-velocity/v-velocity1.0m/s
60°N
60°N60
°N
60°N
70°N
80°N
180°160°W140°W
120°W
100°W
80°W
60°W
40°W 20°W 0° 20°E 40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Friday 9 May 2003 12UTC 400hPa **u-velocity/v-velocity/ v-velocity
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
1.0m/s
80°S
70°S
60°S
60°S
60°S
60°S
180° 160°W 140°W
120°W
100°W
80°W
60°W
40°W20°W0°20°E40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Friday 9 May 2003 12UTC 400hPa **u-velocity/v-velocity/ v-velocity
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
1.0m/s
60°N
60°N60
°N
60°N
70°N
80°N
180°160°W140°W
120°W
100°W
80°W
60°W
40°W 20°W 0° 20°E 40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Friday 9 May 2003 12UTC 400hPa **u-velocity/v-velocity/ v-velocity
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
1.0m/s
80°S
70°S
60°S
60°S
60°S
60°S
180° 160°W 140°W
120°W
100°W
80°W
60°W
40°W20°W0°20°E40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Friday 9 May 2003 12UTC 400hPa **u-velocity/v-velocity/ v-velocity
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
Mean Polar Wind Analysis/Difference to noMODIS at 400 hPa
20.0m/s
80°S
70°S
60°S
60°S
60°S
60°S
180° 160°W 140°W
120°W
100°W
80°W
60°W
40°W20°W0°20°E40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Friday 9 May 2003 12UTC 500hPa **u-velocity/v-velocity
noMODIS Terra Terra+Aqua1.0m/s
80°S
70°S
60°S
60°S
60°S
60°S
180° 160°W 140°W
120°W
100°W
80°W
60°W
40°W20°W0°20°E40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Friday 9 May 2003 12UTC 400hPa **u-velocity/v-velocity/ v-velocity
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
[m/s]
60°N
60°N60
°N
60°N
70°N
80°N
180°160°W140°W
120°W
100°W
80°W
60°W
40°W 20°W 0° 20°E 40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Friday 9 May 2003 12UTC 500hPa **geopotential height/ geopotential height
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
80°S
70°S
60°S
60°S
60°S
60°S
180° 160°W 140°W
120°W
100°W
80°W
60°W
40°W20°W0°20°E40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Friday 9 May 2003 12UTC 500hPa **geopotential height/ geopotential height
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
60°N
60°N60
°N
60°N
70°N
80°N
180°160°W140°W
120°W
100°W
80°W
60°W
40°W 20°W 0° 20°E 40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Friday 9 May 2003 12UTC 400hPa **geopotential height/ geopotential height
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
80°S
70°S
60°S
60°S
60°S
60°S
180° 160°W 140°W
120°W
100°W
80°W
60°W
40°W20°W0°20°E40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Friday 9 May 2003 12UTC 400hPa **geopotential height/ geopotential height
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
60°N
60°N60
°N
60°N
70°N
80°N
180°160°W140°W
120°W
100°W
80°W
60°W
40°W 20°W 0° 20°E 40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Friday 9 May 2003 12UTC 400hPa **geopotential height/ geopotential height
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
80°S
70°S
60°S
60°S
60°S
60°S
180° 160°W 140°W
120°W
100°W
80°W
60°W
40°W20°W0°20°E40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Friday 9 May 2003 12UTC 400hPa **geopotential height/ geopotential height
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
RMS of Analysis Increments 400 hPa geopotential height noMODIS Terra Terra+Aqua
80°S
70°S
60°S
60°S
60°S
60°S
180° 160°W 140°W
120°W
100°W
80°W
60°W
40°W20°W0°20°E40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E 160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Friday 9 May 2003 12UTC 400hPa **geopotential height/ geopotential height
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
[gpdm]
Used MODIS AMVs (above 400 hPa)
S.Hem.N.Hem.
TerraTerra+AquaBOTH200km
Total:Terra:
5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0assimilation day
0.
1000.
2000.
3000.
4000.
5000.
6000.
num
ber
5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0assimilation day
0.
1000.
2000.
3000.
4000.
5000.
6000.
num
ber
huge amount of Aqua over AntarcticaTerra and Aqua AMVs not competitive moderate increase with BOTH200km only
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Forecast Day
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100% DATE1=20030201/... DATE2=20030201/... DATE3=20030201/... DATE4=20030201/...
AREA=N.HEM TIME=12 MEAN OVER 51 CASES
ANOMALY CORRELATION FORECAST
500 hPa GEOPOTENTIAL
FORECAST VERIFICATIONABCD
MAGICS 6.8 leda - stv Wed Oct 1 17:52:25 2003 Verify SCOCOM
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Forecast Day
-505
101520253035404550556065707580859095
100M DATE1=20030201/... DATE2=20030201/... DATE3=20030201/... DATE4=20030201/...
AREA=N.HEM TIME=12 MEAN OVER 51 CASES
ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR FORECAST
500 hPa GEOPOTENTIAL
FORECAST VERIFICATIONABCD
MAGICS 6.8 leda - stv Wed Oct 1 17:52:25 2003 Verify SCOCOM
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Forecast Day
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100% DATE1=20030201/... DATE2=20030201/... DATE3=20030201/... DATE4=20030201/...
AREA=S.HEM TIME=12 MEAN OVER 51 CASES
ANOMALY CORRELATION FORECAST
500 hPa GEOPOTENTIAL
FORECAST VERIFICATIONABCD
MAGICS 6.8 leda - stv Wed Oct 1 17:52:25 2003 Verify SCOCOM
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Forecast Day
-505
101520253035404550556065707580859095
100M DATE1=20030201/... DATE2=20030201/... DATE3=20030201/... DATE4=20030201/...
AREA=S.HEM TIME=12 MEAN OVER 51 CASES
ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR FORECAST
500 hPa GEOPOTENTIAL
FORECAST VERIFICATIONABCD
MAGICS 6.8 leda - stv Wed Oct 1 17:52:25 2003 Verify SCOCOM
N.Hem
S.Hem
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Forecast Day
35404550556065707580859095
100% DATE1=20030201/... DATE2=20030201/... DATE3=20030201/... DATE4=20030201/...
AREA=EUROPE TIME=12 MEAN OVER 51 CASES
ANOMALY CORRELATION FORECAST
500 hPa GEOPOTENTIAL
FORECAST VERIFICATIONABCD
MAGICS 6.8 leda - stv Wed Oct 1 17:52:25 2003 Verify SCOCOM
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Forecast Day
-505
101520253035404550556065707580859095
100105110115120125M
DATE1=20030201/... DATE2=20030201/... DATE3=20030201/... DATE4=20030201/...
AREA=EUROPE TIME=12 MEAN OVER 51 CASES
ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR FORECAST
500 hPa GEOPOTENTIAL
FORECAST VERIFICATIONABCD
MAGICS 6.8 leda - stv Wed Oct 1 17:52:25 2003 Verify SCOCOM
Europe
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Forecast Day
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100% DATE1=20030201/... DATE2=20030201/... DATE3=20030201/... DATE4=20030201/...
AREA=N.ATL TIME=12 MEAN OVER 51 CASES
ANOMALY CORRELATION FORECAST
500 hPa GEOPOTENTIAL
FORECAST VERIFICATIONABCD
MAGICS 6.8 leda - stv Wed Oct 1 17:52:25 2003 Verify SCOCOM
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Forecast Day
-505
101520253035404550556065707580859095
100M DATE1=20030201/... DATE2=20030201/... DATE3=20030201/... DATE4=20030201/...
AREA=N.ATL TIME=12 MEAN OVER 51 CASES
ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERROR FORECAST
500 hPa GEOPOTENTIAL
FORECAST VERIFICATIONABCD
MAGICS 6.8 leda - stv Wed Oct 1 17:52:25 2003 Verify SCOCOM
N.Atlantic
(winter and spring 2003)
noModis Terra Terra+Aqua BOTH200km
Forecast scores: 500 hPa Z anomaly correlation (51 days)
EUROPE LAT 35.000 TO 75.000 LON -12.500 TO 42.500
ANOMALY CORRELATION FORECAST
500hPa GEOPOTENTIAL
FORECAST VERIFICATION 12UTC
%
27JUNE
2003
28 29 30 1 2 3JULY
2003
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
time_0001edxq T+120
time_own_0001 T+120
time_0001edyx T+120
time_00010010 T+120
time_0001edy9 T+120
time_0001efep T+120
Operations noMODIS eSuite eSuite(noMODIS) Terra+Aqua half err.cov QI
Day5, 500Z, Europe 12UTC
Trials with cycles at 30 June 00 and 12 UTC using noMODIS background
CASE STUDY
Experiment: BIASED has MODIS from 30 June 2003 00UTC on
525530
530
535
535
540
540
540
545
545
545
545550
550
550
550
550
550
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
565
565
565
565
565
565
565
570
570
570
570
25.0m/s
60°N
60°N60
°N
60°N
70°N
80°N
180°160°W140°W
120°W
100°W
80°W
60°W
40°W 20°W 0° 20°E 40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Tuesday 1 July 2003 00UTC 500hPa **geopotential height/ v-velocity
500505510515520525530535540
545550555560565570575580
585590595600
530
530
535
535
540
540
545
545
545
545
550
550
550
550
550
550
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
565
565
565
565
565
565
565 570
570
570
25.0m/s
60°N
60°N60
°N
60°N
70°N
80°N
180°160°W140°W
120°W
100°W
80°W
60°W
40°W 20°W 0° 20°E 40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Tuesday 1 July 2003 12UTC 500hPa **geopotential height/ v-velocity
500505510515520525530535540
545550555560565570575580
585590595600
530
535
535
540
540545
545
545
545
545
550
550
550
550
550
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
56056
0
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
565
565
565
565
565
565
565
570
570
570
25.0m/s
60°N
60°N60
°N
60°N
70°N
80°N
180°160°W140°W
120°W
100°W
80°W
60°W
40°W 20°W 0° 20°E 40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 2 July 2003 00UTC 500hPa **geopotential height/ v-velocity
500505510515520525530535540
545550555560565570575580
585590595600
530 53
5
540
540
545
545
545
545
545
550
550
550
550
550
550
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
565
565
565
565
565
565
570
570
570
575
25.0m/s
60°N
60°N60
°N
60°N
70°N
80°N
180°160°W140°W
120°W
100°W
80°W
60°W
40°W 20°W 0° 20°E 40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Wednesday 2 July 2003 12UTC 500hPa **geopotential height/ v-velocity
500505510515520525530535540
545550555560565570575580
585590595600
530
535
540
540
540
545
545
545
545
545
550
550
550
550
550
550
555
555
555
555
555555
555
555
555
555
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
565
565
565
565
565
565
565
570
570
25.0m/s
60°N
60°N60
°N
60°N
70°N
80°N
180°160°W140°W
120°W
100°W
80°W
60°W
40°W 20°W 0° 20°E 40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Thursday 3 July 2003 00UTC 500hPa **geopotential height/ v-velocity
500505510515520525530535540
545550555560565570575580
585590595600
525530
530
535
535
540
540
540
545
545
545
550
550
550
550
550
550
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
565
565
565
565
565
565
565
565
565
570
570
570
25.0m/s
60°N
60°N60
°N
60°N
70°N
80°N
180°160°W140°W
120°W
100°W
80°W
60°W
40°W 20°W 0° 20°E 40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E160°E
Monday 30 June 2003 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+12 VT: Tuesday 1 July 2003 00UTC 500hPa **geopotential height/ v-velocity
500505510515520525530535540
545550555560565570575580
585590595600
525530
530
535
535
540 54
0
540
545
545
545
550
550
550
550
550
550
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
565
565
565
565
565
565
565
565
565
570
570
570
25.0m/s
60°N
60°N60
°N
60°N
70°N
80°N
180°160°W140°W
120°W
100°W
80°W
60°W
40°W 20°W 0° 20°E 40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E160°E
Monday 30 June 2003 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+12 VT: Tuesday 1 July 2003 00UTC 500hPa **geopotential height/ v-velocity
500505510515520525530535540
545550555560565570575580
585590595600
530
530
535
535
540
540
540
545
545
545
545
550
550
550
550
550
550
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
565
565
565
565
565
565
570
570
570
25.0m/s
60°N
60°N60
°N
60°N
70°N
80°N
180°160°W140°W
120°W
100°W
80°W
60°W
40°W 20°W 0° 20°E 40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E160°E
Monday 30 June 2003 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+24 VT: Tuesday 1 July 2003 12UTC 500hPa **geopotential height/ v-velocity
500505510515520525530535540
545550555560565570575580
585590595600
500Z Forecast 30 June 2003 12UTC vs Analysis
535
540
540
540
545
545
545
545
545550
550
550
550
550
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
560
560
560
560
560
560
560560
560
560
565
565
565
565
565
565
565
570
570
575
25.0m/s
60°N
60°N60
°N
60°N
70°N
80°N
180°160°W140°W
120°W
100°W
80°W
60°W
40°W 20°W 0° 20°E 40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E160°E
Monday 30 June 2003 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+60 VT: Thursday 3 July 2003 00UTC 500hPa **geopotential height/ v-velocity
500505510515520525530535540
545550555560565570575580
585590595600
535
540
540
545
545
545
545
545
550
550
550
550
550
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
565
565
565
565
565
565
565
570
575
25.0m/s
60°N
60°N60
°N
60°N
70°N
80°N
180°160°W140°W
120°W
100°W
80°W
60°W
40°W 20°W 0° 20°E 40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E160°E
Monday 30 June 2003 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+60 VT: Thursday 3 July 2003 00UTC 500hPa **geopotential height/ v-velocity
500505510515520525530535540
545550555560565570575580
585590595600
535
540
540
540
540
545
545
545
545
550
550
550
550
550
550
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
555 555
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
565
565
565
565
565
565
565
570
570
570
570
575
25.0m/s
60°N
60°N60
°N
60°N
70°N
80°N
180°160°W140°W
120°W
100°W
80°W
60°W
40°W 20°W 0° 20°E 40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E160°E
Monday 30 June 2003 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+48 VT: Wednesday 2 July 2003 12UTC 500hPa **geopotential height/ v-velocity
500505510515520525530535540
545550555560565570575580
585590595600
530
530
535
535
540
540
545
545
545
545
550
550
550
550
550
550
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
565
565
565
565
565
565
570
570
570
25.0m/s
60°N
60°N60
°N
60°N
70°N
80°N
180°160°W140°W
120°W
100°W
80°W
60°W
40°W 20°W 0° 20°E 40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E160°E
Monday 30 June 2003 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+24 VT: Tuesday 1 July 2003 12UTC 500hPa **geopotential height/ v-velocity
500505510515520525530535540
545550555560565570575580
585590595600
530
530
535
535
540
540
545
545
545
545
550
550
550
550
550
550
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
560
560
560
560
560560
560
560
560
560
565
565
565
565
565
565
570
570
570
570
25.0m/s
60°N
60°N60
°N
60°N
70°N
80°N
180°160°W140°W
120°W
100°W
80°W
60°W
40°W 20°W 0° 20°E 40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E160°E
Monday 30 June 2003 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+36 VT: Wednesday 2 July 2003 00UTC 500hPa **geopotential height/ v-velocity
500505510515520525530535540
545550555560565570575580
585590595600
530
535
535
540
540
540
545
545
545
545
550
550
550
550
550
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
560
560
560
560
560560
560
560
560
560
565
565
565
565
565
565
570
570
570
570
25.0m/s
60°N
60°N60
°N
60°N
70°N
80°N
180°160°W140°W
120°W
100°W
80°W
60°W
40°W 20°W 0° 20°E 40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E160°E
Monday 30 June 2003 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+36 VT: Wednesday 2 July 2003 00UTC 500hPa **geopotential height/ v-velocity
500505510515520525530535540
545550555560565570575580
585590595600
540
540
540
545
545
545
545
545
550
550
550
550
550
550
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
565
565
565
565
565
565
565
565
570
570
570
570
575
25.0m/s
60°N
60°N60
°N
60°N
70°N
80°N
180°160°W140°W
120°W
100°W
80°W
60°W
40°W 20°W 0° 20°E 40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E160°E
Monday 30 June 2003 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+48 VT: Wednesday 2 July 2003 12UTC 500hPa **geopotential height/ v-velocity
500505510515520525530535540
545550555560565570575580
585590595600
Analyses
noMODIS
BIASED
+12h +36h +48h +60h+24h
535
540
540
545
545
545
545
545
550
550
550
550
550
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
555
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
560
565
565
565
565
565
565
565
570
575
25.0m/s
60°N
60°N60
°N
60°N
70°N
80°N
180°160°W140°W
120°W
100°W
80°W
60°W
40°W 20°W 0° 20°E 40°E
60°E
80°E
100°E
120°E
140°E160°E
Monday 30 June 2003 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+60 VT: Thursday 3 July 2003 00UTC 500hPa **geopotential height/ v-velocity
500505510515520525530535540
545550555560565570575580
585590595600
OB
S-T
ime:
041
5Z 0
555Z
073
5Z 0
915Z
105
0Z 1
230Z
141
0Z
520525
53
0
530
530
53
5
535
535
540
540
545
550
550
520
52
5
525
53
0
530
53
5
535
535
540
545
550
550
550
520
52
5
525
53
0
530
53
5
535
535
540
545
550
550
550
520
525
525
53
0
53
5
535
540
545
550
550
550
525
525
530
530
53
5
535
540
545
550
550
550
555
525
525
530
530
53
5
535
540
545
550
550
550
555
525
525
530
530
53
5
535
540
545
550
550
550
555
FG
FG
4D
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FGFG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
4D
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FGFG
FG
FG
FG
FGFG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
FG
120°E
140°E160°E
Monday 30 June 2003 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+3 VT: Monday 30 June 2003 03UTC 500hPa **geopotential heightMonday 30 June 2003 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+6 VT: Monday 30 June 2003 06UTC 500hPa **geopotential height/ geopotential height
Monday 30 June 2003 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+9 VT: Monday 30 June 2003 09UTC 500hPa **geopotential heightMonday 30 June 2003 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+12 VT: Monday 30 June 2003 12UTC 500hPa **geopotential height
Study Area 1 – Analysis at 30 June 2003, 12UTC
used AMVs 450-650hPa in Exp. BIASED
70°N
80°N
120°E
140°E160°E
-8 - -6 -6 - -4 -4 - -2 -2 - 0 0 - 2 2 - 4 4 - 6 6 - 8
70°N
80°N
120°E
140°E160°E
-8 - -6 -6 - -4 -4 - -2 -2 - 0 0 - 2 2 - 4 4 - 6 6 - 8OBS-FG Departure: [m/s]
blacklisted AMVs are colouredExp.BIASBLACK
-0.3
5
-0.35
-0.3
-0.2
5
-0.2
-0.2
-0.15
-0.15
-0.1
5
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.0
5
-0.05
-0.05
-0.05
-0.05
-0.0
5
-0.05
0
0
00
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
00
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.15
0.15
0.15
0.2
0.25
25.0m/s
70°N
80°N
120°E
140°E160°E
Monday 30 June 2003 00UTC ECMWF Forecast t+12 VT: Monday 30 June 2003 12UTC 500hPa **vertical velocity/ v-velocity
-0.5
-0.45
-0.4
-0.35
-0.3
-0.25
-0.2
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
-0.5
-0.4
5-0
.4-0.3
5-0.3-0.2
5
-0.25
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.15
-0.15
-0.15
-0.1
5
-0.15
-0.15
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.0
5
-0.0
5
-0.0
5
-0.0
5
-0.05
-0.05
-0.05
-0.05
-0.0
5
0
0
0
0
00
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.15
0.15
0.2
25.0m/s
70°N
80°N
120°E
140°E160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Monday 30 June 2003 12UTC 500hPa **vertical velocity/ v-velocity
-0.5
-0.45
-0.4
-0.35
-0.3
-0.25
-0.2
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
-0.5
-0.4
5-0
.4-0.3
5-0.3-0.2
5
-0.25
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.15
-0.15
-0.15
-0.1
5
-0.15
-0.15
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.0
5
-0.0
5
-0.0
5
-0.0
5
-0.05
-0.05
-0.05
-0.05
-0.0
5
0
0
0
0
00
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.15
0.15
0.2
25.0m/s
70°N
80°N
120°E
140°E160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Monday 30 June 2003 12UTC 500hPa **vertical velocity/ v-velocity
-0.5
-0.45
-0.4
-0.35
-0.3
-0.25
-0.2
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
-0.5
-0.4
5-0
.4
-0.4-0
.35
-0.3
5-0.3
-0.3
-0.2
5
-0.2
5
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.15
-0.1
5
-0.15
-0.1
5
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.0
5
-0.0
5
-0.05-0.05
-0.05
-0.0
5
-0.05
0
0
0
0
00
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.15
0.2
25.0m/s
70°N
80°N
120°E
140°E160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Monday 30 June 2003 12UTC 500hPa **vertical velocity/ v-velocity
-0.5
-0.45
-0.4
-0.35
-0.3
-0.25
-0.2
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
-0.2
-0.1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.1
0.5m/s
70°N
80°N
120°E
140°E160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Monday 30 June 2003 12UTC 500hPa **geopotential height/ v-velocity
-1-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2
-0.100.10.20.30.40.50.6
0.70.80.91
Analysis at 30 June 2003, 12UTC
background
BIASBLACK BIASED
[Pa/s]
0
0.5m/s
120°E
140°E160°E
ECMWF Analysis VT:Monday 30 June 2003 12UTC 500hPa **geopotential height/ v-velocity
-1-0.9-0.8-0.7-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2
-0.100.10.20.30.40.50.6
0.70.80.91
[gpdm]
vertical velocity at 500 hPa
BIASBLACK-BIASED
500Z difference
-1.5
-1
-1
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
2
2
2
2
2.53 3.5
4
8.0m/s
80°N
180°170°W160°W150°W140°W
130°W
120°W
110°W
100°W
90°W
80°W
70°W
60°W
50°W
40°W 30°W 20°W 10°W 0° 10°E 20°E 30°E 40°E
50°E
60°E
70°E
80°E
90°E
100°E
110°E
120°E
130°E
140°E150°E160°E170°E
Monday 30 June 2003 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+24 VT: Tuesday 1 July 2003 12UTC 400hPa **geopotential height/ v-velocity
-3-2.5-2-1.5-1-0.500.51
1.522.533.544.55
5.566.57
-1.5
-1
-1
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.5
0.5
0.50.
5
0.50.
5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
2
2
2
2
2.5
2.53 3.5
4
8.0m/s
80°N
180°170°W160°W150°W140°W
130°W
120°W
110°W
100°W
90°W
80°W
70°W
60°W
50°W
40°W 30°W 20°W 10°W 0° 10°E 20°E 30°E 40°E
50°E
60°E
70°E
80°E
90°E
100°E
110°E
120°E
130°E
140°E150°E160°E170°E
Monday 30 June 2003 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+24 VT: Tuesday 1 July 2003 12UTC 400hPa **geopotential height/ v-velocity
-3-2.5-2-1.5-1-0.500.51
1.522.533.544.55
5.566.57
BIASBLACK
24h forecast error (400Z) at 30 June 2003, 12UTC
BIASED
-1
-1
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5-0.5
-0.5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
2
2
22
2.5
2.5
3
3
3.54
8.0m/s
80°N
180°170°W160°W150°W140°W
130°W
120°W
110°W
100°W
90°W
80°W
70°W
60°W
50°W
40°W 30°W 20°W 10°W 0° 10°E 20°E 30°E 40°E
50°E
60°E
70°E
80°E
90°E
100°E
110°E
120°E
130°E
140°E150°E160°E170°E
Monday 30 June 2003 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+24 VT: Tuesday 1 July 2003 12UTC 400hPa **geopotential height/ v-velocity
-3-2.5-2-1.5-1-0.500.51
1.522.533.544.55
5.566.57
Operations
-3-2
.5
-2
-2
-1.5
-1.5
-1
-1
-1
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
1
1
1
1
1
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
2
8.0m/s
80°N
180°170°W160°W150°W140°W
130°W
120°W
110°W
100°W
90°W
80°W
70°W
60°W
50°W
40°W 30°W 20°W 10°W 0° 10°E 20°E 30°E 40°E
50°E
60°E
70°E
80°E
90°E
100°E
110°E
120°E
130°E
140°E150°E160°E170°E
Monday 30 June 2003 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+24 VT: Tuesday 1 July 2003 12UTC 400hPa **geopotential height/ v-velocity
-3-2.5-2-1.5-1-0.500.51
1.522.533.544.55
5.566.57
noMODIS
-1
-1
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5
-0.5-0.5
-0.5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
2
2
22
2.5
2.5
3
3
3.54
8.0m/s
80°N
180°170°W160°W150°W140°W
130°W
120°W
110°W
100°W
90°W
80°W
70°W
60°W
50°W
40°W 30°W 20°W 10°W 0° 10°E 20°E 30°E 40°E
50°E
60°E
70°E
80°E
90°E
100°E
110°E
120°E
130°E
140°E150°E160°E170°E
Monday 30 June 2003 12UTC ECMWF Forecast t+24 VT: Tuesday 1 July 2003 12UTC 400hPa **geopotential height/ v-velocity
-3-2.5-2-1.5-1-0.500.51
1.522.533.544.55
5.566.57
[gpdm]
CONCLUSIONS - PROSPECTS
MODIS Polar windshave impact on ECMWFs polar wind analysis (stronger over Antarctic)introduce analysis increments over very bad observed areasare consistent with the other sparse wind observationsimprove forecast over Europeimpact is decreased since much more other satellite data is in the system
2 satellite systemsincrease the spatial coveragemay lead to overfitting (SH) (thinning is an appropriate way to handle this)give potential also for better temporal coverage, ECMWF is encouraging the combination of Terra and Aqua very much (tracking of fast moving systems might be improved substantially (special benefit to 4DVAR))
… challenging isdifference between Terra and Aqua (bias, number of AMVs)usage of ECMWF forecast data for the height assignmentusage of clear sky WV radiances from MODIS