monash freeway upgrade stage 2 - major road …...• direct construction costs • indirect...

Monash Freeway Upgrade Stage 2

Project Options Analysis

November 2017

VicRoads

Introduction

• PwC facilitated a process to collate scope options and create options

bundles, through engaging with the project team (DIRD, DEDJTR,

VicRoads, WSP) and key stakeholders regarding intelligent transport

systems (VicRoads), public transport (DEDJTR and VicRoads), and active

transport (VicRoads).

• The options bundles created did not include active or public transport or

pavement strengthening improvements. These scope options were explored

separately as value add opportunities.

• The presentation presents multi-criteria results based on review by

VicRoads, DEDJTR, PwC, WSP and SGS. The four option bundles were

tested against the eight project objectives using qualitative and quantitative

considerations.

• The shortlisted bundles from the MCA process were assessed under a cost

benefit analysis (CBA) framework.

• The purpose of this presentation is to provide additional detail about the

project options analysis process.

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November 2017

VicRoads

Project options analysisReflecting the range of problems identified in the Monash Transport Corridor

and the range of potential solutions, PwC has developed a 3-step process to

create develop bundles of scope for consideration and select a preferred

bundle.

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November 2017

1. Identification of scope

items

• Description of scope

items relevant to each

strategic intervention

2. Development and early

assessment of bundles

• Preparation of bundles

• Early bundle assessment

framework

• Shortlisting of bundles

3. Preferred bundle(s)

• Scope refinement of

shortlisted bundles

• Refined cost estimates for

shortlisted bundles

• Assessment of shortlisted

bundles

Identification of scope options

4

November 2017Options Bundling List

VicRoads

Scope items identifiedA list of scope items was identified by VicRoads, PwC, Transport for Victoria and DIRD. These scope items were grouped in the

strategic interventions identified in the Investment Logic Map and are mapped on the next slide.

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November 2017

Map reference Description

Strategic Intervention A: Additional freeway lanes and managed motorways

A1-1 Additional Monash Freeway lanes from Clyde Road to Cardinia Road (both directions)

A1-2 Additional Monash Freeway lanes from Cardinia Road to Koo Wee Rup Road (both directions)

A2-1 Additional Monash Freeway lane from Warrigal Road to EastLink (outbound only)

A2-2 Additional Monash Freeway lane from Warrigal Road to EastLink (inbound only)

A2-3 Additional Monash Freeway lanes from Warrigal Road to Westall Road extension (outbound only)

A2-5 Additional Monash Freeway lanes from Springvale Road to EastLink (inbound only)

A2-6 Additional Monash Freeway lanes from Springvale Road to EastLink (outbound only)

A3-1 Extend Lane Use Management System east from South Gippsland Freeway to Clyde Road

A3-2 Automatic incident detection on the Monash Freeway from CityLink to Clyde Road

A3-3 Extend Lane Use Management System east from South Gippsland Freeway to Old Princes Highway

Strategic Intervention B: Upgrades to Monash Freeway connections

B1-1 South Gippsland Freeway Ramp to Hallam Bypass outbound with lane widening to Princes Highway

B1-2 South Gippsland Freeway Ramp to Hallam Bypass outbound

B1-3 South Gippsland Freeway Ramp to Hallam Bypass outbound with lane widening to Tinks Road

B2-1 Upgrade of Clyde Road interchange

B2-2 Upgrade of Healesville-Koo Wee Rup Road interchange

B2-3 Upgrade of Beaconsfield interchange

B2-4 Extension of Oshea Road from Soldiers Road to Beaconsfield interchange

B2-5 Duplication of Oshea Road from Clyde Road to Soldiers Road

Strategic Intervention C: Upgrades to alternative surrounding road network routes

C1-1/2/3 Extension of Westall Road to Monash Freeway (accessibility option, hybrid option, mobility option)

C2-1Extension of Dandenong Bypass to South Gippsland Freeway and additional South Gippsland Freeway lanes (inbound

and outbound) from Monash Freeway to Pound Road, with upgrade of Pound Road interchange

VicRoads

Map of all scope items considered

6

Development and early assessment of bundles

7


VicRoads

Preparation of Bundles – Overview of BundlesIndividually, no scope item would be able to singularly address the suite of project objectives, as such an exercise was undertaken

to create Bundles of scope items that would best achieve the project objectives and benefits. The Bundles were broadly identified

to either support freeway upgrades, improve access to the Monash NEIC or the south east growth area, or create an alternative

route connecting the Monash and Dandenong NEICs and the south east growth area.

The 4 Bundles are described below, and maps of each option Bundle are shown on the next 4 slides.

# Options Bundle Description

1 Freeway Lane Widening Package

• Additional freeway lanes, inbound and outbound, along Monash Freeway from Warrigal Road to Eastlink, andClyde Road to Cardinia Road

• Extended managed motorway controls out to Beaconsfield interchange to manage incidents

2 Core Freeway with Monash NEIC Focus – Key freeway upgrades with connections to Monash NEIC

• Westall Road Extension, a 6-lane highway connection from Monash Freeway near Ferntree Gully Road to theintersection of Westall Road and the Princes Highway

• An additional outbound lane from Warrigal Road to the new Westall Road Extension, additional freeway lanes(outbound and inbound) along Monash Freeway from Springvale Road to Eastlink, and Clyde Road toCardinia Road

• Extended managed motorway controls out to Beaconsfield Interchange to detect incidents• Better manage arterial roads which interface with the freeway to help the freeway recover from major

disruptions

3 Core Freeway with SE Growth Area Focus– Key freeway upgrades with connections for the south east

• An additional outbound lane from Warrigal Road to the Ferntree Gully Road, additional freeway lanes(outbound and inbound) along Monash Freeway from Springvale Road to Eastlink, and Clyde Road toCardinia Road

• Additional Freeway access for south east growth area with the duplication and extension of Oshea's Road fromClyde Road to Beaconsfield Interchange

• Extended managed motorway controls out to Beaconsfield Interchange to manage incidents

4 Alternative Route Package • An additional outbound lane from Warrigal Road to the new Westall Road Extension, extension ofDandenong Bypass to South Gippsland Freeway, additional freeway lanes (outbound and inbound) alongSouth Gippsland Freeway from Monash Freeway to Pound Road with the upgrade of Pound Road interchange,and a new ramp northbound from South Gippsland Freeway to eastbound Monash Freeway forming a newlane to Princes Highway East

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November 2017

VicRoads

# Bundles

1 Freeway Lane Widening Package

2Core Freeway with Monash NEIC Focus – Key freeway upgrades with connections to Monash NEIC

3Core Freeway with SE Growth Area Focus– Key freeway upgrades with connections for the south east

4 Alternative Route Package

Preparation of Bundles – Alignment to project

objectives and benefitsThe options bundles have been developed to reflect the project objectives, and the benefits captured in the Investment Logic Map.

9

Project Benefits

1) Improved productivity

and growth in Melbourne

5) Economic development

in Melbourne

4) A more liveable

Melbourne

3) A more competitive

freight sector

2) Reduced reliance on the

Monash Freeway

Objectives

1) Reduce congestion and

travel times on the Monash

Freeway

2) Increase road network

capacity

3) Build network resilience and

reliability

4) Improve safety

5) Improve freight efficiency and

business productivity

6) Improve access to jobs and

economic & education clusters

7) Drive business development

and investment

8) Deliver outcomes for local

stakeholders

November 2017

VicRoads

1 - Freeway Lane Widening Package

10

VicRoads 11

2 - Core Freeway with Monash NEIC Focus – Key freeway upgrades with

connections to Monash NEIC

VicRoads 12

3 - Core Freeway with SE Growth Area Focus– Key freeway upgrades with

connections for the South East

VicRoads 13

4 - Alternative Routes Priority Package

VicRoads

Preparation of Bundles - Preliminary Cost Methodology

14

A number of assumptions have been made to develop preliminary costs for the multi-criteria analysis:

• Preliminary costs developed by VicRoads and Aquenta (unescalated 2017 dollars) include:

• Direct construction costs

• Indirect construction costs (traffic management, design, project delivery costs, margins)

• Risk (20-40% contingency based on direct and indirect costs)

• Land acquisition (based on comparable land valuation)

• A number of costs already developed in other projects (OSARS, Dandenong Bypass connection, Westall Road)

• Lane widening based on unit cost approach compared with MFU1.

• ITS costs estimated from comparable projects

• A range of costs considered for the MCA was developed to indicate the degree of uncertainty:

• Higher cost estimate – based on direct construction costs, and assumes delivery cost of 150% of direct construction costs (to

reflect indirect construction costs, contingent risk, and land acquisition costs)

• Lower cost estimate – based on direct construction costs, assumes delivery cost 50% of direct construction costs

(benchmarked from Monash Freeway Upgrade Stage 1), and land acquisition costs.

Preliminary CostsBundle 1

Freeway Lane Widening Priority Package

Bundle 2Core Freeway with

Monash NEIC Focus

Bundle 3Core Freeway with SE

Growth Area Focus

Bundle 4Alternative Route

Package

Lower Cost Estimate

Higher Cost Estimate

November 2017Source: Aquenta (2017)

VicRoads

Early Bundle Assessment FrameworkA multi-criteria analysis framework was developed to assess the option bundles against the project objectives, and make

recommendations for the detailed economic analysis. The weighting of considerations aligns with the weighting of project benefits.

15

MCA Analysis ConsiderationsObjectives Quantitative Measures to Assist with MCA*

1) Reduce congestion

and travel times on the

Monash Freeway (25%)

2) Increase road

network capacity (10%)

3) Build network

resilience and reliability

(15%)

4) Improve safety (10%)

5) Improve freight

efficiency and business

productivity (15%)

6) Improve access to

jobs and economic &

education clusters (10%)

7) Drive business

development and

Investment (10%)

8) Deliver outcomes for

local stakeholders (5%)

Whether the Bundle reduces the travel time and congestion on

the Monash Transport Corridor.

Consideration of whether or not the Bundle will increase the

capacity of the road network is based on whether the

infrastructure invested in is used and other infrastructure is more

available

Whether the Bundle will promote road safety by reducing

stop/start traffic and focusing on locations with a history of

accidents.

Considers the time and cost at which freight can move through

the corridor and the cost savings to business which rely on the

road transport network to deliver goods and services.

Considers whether the Bundle improves the ability of the

network to cope with network disruptions. Also considers the

extent to which the bundle future proofs the network.

An assessment of how the public is likely to react to each

Bundle.

Examine how the Bundle drives the development and growth of

businesses in the area, particularly by considering business

agglomeration benefits of the bundle.

Consider whether the Bundle promotes development in the

south east corridor by improving access to jobs and education

clusters.

- Travel time savings in 2021 for car and public

transport trips• Total travel time savings for all vehicles (2031 AM and PM

peak fixed traffic assignment)

• Change in VKT on freeways and stop/start roads (2031 AM

and PM peak fixed traffic assignment)

• Accessibility in 2031 to key Dandenong and Monash NEICs

from households (analysis of 2031 AM and PM peak traffic

assignment outputs)

• Travel time savings in 2031 for freight vehicles (light and

heavy commercial vehicles) (2031 AM and PM peak fixed

traffic assignment)

• Effective job density, increase in job/population growth rate,

employer access to labour pool (analysis of 2031 AM and PM

peak traffic assignment outputs)

• Increased traffic volumes on roads with additional traffic

capacity (2031 AM and PM peak fixed traffic assignment)

• Reduced traffic volumes on roads adjacent to freeway

corridors (2031 AM and PM peak fixed traffic assignment)

• Observe some existing analysis of network disruptions

(provided by TFV)

• Consideration of the material already quantified, but with a

focus on stakeholder perspective

*Where model outputs were used to develop quantitative measure, the relative scores of the Bundles were used to capture the scale of

difference between Bundles down to increments of 0.1, but qualitative scores were subjective and used increments of 0.5 for scoring.

VicRoads

Option 1: Freeway Lane Widening package

1) Reduce congestion and travel times on the Monash

Freeway (25%)Whether the bundle reduces the travel time and congestion on the Monash

Freeway. Reduction in total hours spent on the road network.

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Option 2: Core Freeway with Monash NEIC Focus – Key freeway

upgrades with connections to Monash NEIC

Option 4: Alternative Route Package Option 3: Core Freeway with SE Growth Area Focus– Key freeway

upgrades with connections for the south east

Score:

+2.1Score:

+2.4

Score:

+2.9

15,300*Reduction in total vehicle hours travelled

(AM and PM Peak 2031)

18,000Reduction in total vehicle hours travelled






*The modelling for option 1 appears to indicate that Warrigal Road

and CityLink have sufficient capacity to accommodate growth on the

Monash Freeway inbound from Ferntree Gully Road to Warrigal Road.

VicRoads has flagged that operationally the transport network will not

be able to accommodate the growth predicted.

Source: WSP Modelling

Score:

+1.3

November 2017

VicRoads


upgrades with connections to Monash NEICOption 1: Freeway Lane Widening package

2) Increase road network capacity (10%)Consideration of whether the bundle will increase the capacity of the road

network (more traffic on roads with additional capacity, less traffic on

surrounding road network)

17

Option 4: Alternative Route PackageOption 3: Core Freeway with SE Growth Area Focus– Key freeway


Score:

+1.5Score:

+2

Score:

+2

Modest

increases in

capacity for

arterial roads in

Monash NEIC

and SE growth

areaIncreased freeway

capacity attracting

trips

Large

increases in

capacity for

Westall Road

Large

increases in

capacity for

arterial roads

in SE growth

area

Less capacity in

Western section

Increased capacity

around roads in

Monash NEIC

No impact in SE

growth area

Increased

freeway

capacity

attracting trips

Legend:

Decrease in number of cars

No change

Increase in number of cars

AM Peak

Car

Difference,

2031






*

AM Peak

Car

Difference,

2031

AM Peak

Car

Difference,

2031

AM Peak

Car

Difference,

2031

Increased capacity

around roads in

Dandenong NEIC


Score:

+1.5

November 2017

VicRoads


3) Build network resilience and reliability (15%)Considers whether the bundle promotes the ability for the network to cope with

major disruptions. Also considers the extent to which the bundle future proofs

the network.

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Option 4: Alternative Route PackageOption 3: Core Freeway with SE Growth Area Focus– Key freeway


Score:

+1.5Score:

+2

Score:

+1.5Score:

+3

√ Additional freeway capacity will help

manage lane closures

× Additional freeway capacity will not

help manage freeway closures

- This option does not future proof the network



√ Westall Road Extension will help

manage freeway closures

√ Long term strategy supports investing

In alternatives rather than more freeway

√ Westall Road Extension and the

Dandenong Bypass extension will help

manage lane closures and freeway closures

√ Long term strategy supports investing

in alternatives rather than more freeway,

and this option creates a full bypass

connecting Monash and Dandenong NEICs



× Additional freeway capacity will not

help manage freeway closures

- Long term strategy supports investing

In alternatives rather than more freeway

Confidential Draft November 2017

VicRoads


4) Improve safety (10%)Whether the bundle will promote road safety by reducing stop/start traffic and

focusing on locations with a history of accidents.

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Score:

+1.7Score:

+2.0

Score:

+1.8

200,000*Vehicle kilometres shifted to

freeways from local roads


230,000Vehicle kilometres shifted to









Confidential Draft







Option 4 expected to shift additional traffic to safer road conditions, which

has been used to award an additional +0.5

Score:

+1.5

November 2017

VicRoads


5) Improve freight efficiency and business productivity

(15%)Considers the time and cost at which freight can move through the corridor and the

cost savings to business which rely on the road transport network to deliver goods

and services.

20





Score:

+2.2Score:

+2.5

Score:

+2.9Score:

+1.5

1,250*Reduction in heavy vehicle hours travelled

1,950*Light commercial vehicle hours travelled


1,400Reduction in heavy vehicle hours travelled

2,300Light commercial vehicle hours travelled


1,400Reduction in heavy vehicle hours travelled



800Reduction in heavy vehicle hours travelled



Confidential Draft







November 2017

VicRoads


6) Improve access to jobs and economic and education

clusters (10%)Considers whether the bundle promote development in the south east corridor by

improving access to jobs and education clusters.

21





Score:

+1.4Score:

+2.5

Score:

+1.3Score:

+1.3






Source: SGS

2.5%*Increase in business-business

access in the Monash NEIC


access in the Dandenong NEIC

(SGS analysis of 2031 travel time skims)
















November 2017

VicRoads


7) Drive business development and investment (10%)Examines how the bundle drives the development and growth of businesses in the

area, particularly by considering business agglomeration benefits of the bundle.

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Score:

+1.8Score:

+2.5

Score:

+1.9Score:

+1.1

2.9%*Increase in access to jobs by residents

in the south east region**


3.9%Increase in access to jobs by residents









Confidential Draft






Source: SGS**The south east region includes Casey, Frankston,

Greater Dandenong, Kingston, Maroondah, Monash,

Whitehorse, and Knox (Local Government Areas)November 2017

VicRoads

Option 3: Core Freeway with SE Growth Area Focus– Key freeway



8) Deliver outcomes for local stakeholders (5%)Capturing the response of local residents to how well the bundle meets their

expectations after completion and during construction.

23



Option 4: Alternative Route Package

Score:

+2Score:

+3

Score:

+3Score:

+2.5

√ Freeway users expected to be provide positive

community feedback with additional lanes

× Construction will cause major disruption

to freeway




to freeway

√ Westall Road Extension will please people

accessing the Monash NEIC

× Land acquisition can be unpopular

√ Westall Road Extension and the Dandenong

Bypass extension please local residents

and people accessing Monash and Dandenong

NEICs, as people expected to value having options

√ Construction is expected to have less disruption

as extensions are off existing freeway

× Land acquisition November generate negative

community feedback

× Environmental impacts November generate negative

community feedback




to freeway users

√ Oshea’s Road duplication will please people

living in the south east growth area

× Land acquisition November generate negative

community feedback

Confidential Draft November 2017

VicRoads

Early Bundle Assessment ResultsThe multi-criteria analysis was used to shortlist options bundles to undertake detailed appraisal.

24

Confidential Draft Legend:

-3 Option bundle will have a significant negative impact for the project objective relative to the base case

0 Option bundle will have no impact for the project objective relative to the base case

+3 Option bundle will have a significant positive impact for the project objective relative to the base case

Objectives

Bundle 1Freeway Lane

Widening Priority Package


Monash NEIC Focus


SE Growth Area Focus

Bundle 4Alternative Route

Package

1) Reduce congestion and travel times on theMonash Freeway

2.1 2.4 2.9 1.3

2) Increase road network capacity 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.5

3) Build network resilience and reliability 1.5 2.0 1.5 3.0

4) Improve safety 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.5

5) Improve freight efficiency and businessproductivity

2.2 2.5 2.9 1.5

6) Improve access to jobs and economic & educationclusters

1.4 2.5 1.3 1.3

7) Drive business development and Investment 1.8 2.5 1.9 1.1

8) Deliver outcomes for local stakeholders 2.0 3.0 3.0 2.5

MCA Weighted Sum 1.8 2.3 2.2 1.7

Ranking – MCA Weighted Sum 3 1 2 4

Cost per unit score analysis considered for the preliminary cost estimates for the full bundles

Cost per unit score (Lower Cost Estimate)

Cost per unit score (Higher Cost Estimate)

Ranking – cost per unit score Tied - 1 3 Tied - 1 4

November 2017

Based on the early bundle assessment process, option bundles 1, 2 and 3 were shortlisted for

further assessment

Preferred bundle(s)

25


VicRoads

Overview of steps to determine preferred bundle(s)

• Based on the early bundle assessment process, options bundles 1,2

and 3 were shortlisted for further analysis

• The preferred bundle(s) were determined following three activities:

• Scope refinement of shortlisted bundles

• Detailed cost estimates for shortlisted bundles

• Assessment of shortlisted bundles

26

November 2017

VicRoads

Scope refinement of shortlisted bundlesBundles 1, 2 and 3 were selected for further analysis after refinements, and a new

Bundle was created to reflect a staged approach to delivering Bundle 3.

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November 2017

Bundle RefinementsRevised Preliminary Costs

($2017-18, P90 nominal, undiscounted)

1

- Collector distributor outbound on Monash Freeway near Jacksons Road and Police Road

- Exclusion of additional westbound lane from Springvale Road to Warrigal Road to manage freeway entering from Warrigal Road and to improve performance on the arterial road network

2

- Collector distributor outbound on Monash Freeway near Jacksons Road and Police Road

- Collector distributor in both directions on Monash Freeway between Forster Road and Springvale Road to reduce delays from vehicles using the Westall Road connection

3A- Bundle 3 has been renamed 3A.- Collector-distributor outbound on Monash Freeway between Jacksons

Road and Eastlink

3B

- Bundle 3B has been created as an interim stage of delivering Bundle 3A to provide a lower cost option.

- Collector-distributor outbound on Monash Freeway between Jacksons Road and Eastlink

- Exclusion of O’Shea’s Round extension

Source: Analysis of options bundles based on inputs from WSP and VicRoads; Aquenta (September, 2017), ‘Monash Freeway Upgrade Stage 2 Cost Estimate’

VicRoads 28

3B - Core Freeway with SE Growth Area Focus– Key freeway upgrades with

connections for the South East

Confidential Draft

VicRoads

Detailed cost estimates for shortlisted bundles –

Capital Costs The capital costs estimates (P90 risk, nominal) needed to be adjusted for economic appraisal (P50 risk, real, escalated, present value).

29

November 2017

Economic analysis cost reconciliation

Bundle 1Freeway

widening without inbound lane from

Springvale Road

Bundle 2 Freeway widening

& Westall Rd extension

Bundle 3AFreeway widening,

Beaconsfield Interchange & Oshea

Rd extension

Bundle 3B Freeway widening,

Beaconsfield Interchange

Capital cost estimate Nominal (P90 risk, undiscounted)

Remove escalation and Business Case preparation

Capital cost estimate Real, P90 risk, undiscounted

Remove P90 risk

Add P50 risk

Capital cost estimate Real, P50 risk, undiscounted

Present value of capital cost estimate Real, escalated, P50 risk, discounted

Source: PwC (2017), ‘Economic Assessment Report’

VicRoads

Detailed cost estimates for shortlisted bundles –

Operating and Maintenance Costs The annual estimate for operating and maintenance costs needed to be adjusted to estimate the present value of the costs for the 30 year

evaluation period to reflect “whole-of-life” operating and maintenance costs.

30

November 2017

Economic analysis cost reconciliation

Bundle 1Freeway

widening without inbound lane from

Springvale Road

Bundle 2 Freeway widening

& Westall Rd extension

Bundle 3AFreeway widening,

Beaconsfield Interchange & Oshea

Rd extension

Bundle 3B Freeway widening,

Beaconsfield Interchange

Operating and maintenance cost per annum(2% of capital cost estimate Real P50 contingent risk, undiscounted)

Present value of operating and maintenance cost estimate Real, P50 contingent risk, discounted

Source: PwC (2017), ‘Economic Assessment Report’

VicRoads

Assessment of shortlisted bundlesEconomic appraisal was undertaken for the 4 Bundles consistent with DEDJTR Guidelines for Transport Modelling and Economic Appraisal.

Further information about the methodology is available in Economics appendix.

Costs and BenefitsBundle 1

PV ($m)

Bundle 2

PV ($m)

Bundle 3A

PV ($m)

Bundle 3B

PV ($m)

Total Costs Costs 512 951 648 539

Total Benefits (core) Benefits 1,416 2,270 2,394 1,700

Net Present Value 904 1,319 1,746 1,161

Benefit Cost Ratio 2.8 2.4 3.7 3.2

Additional Benefits (including

WEBs and improved perceived

cost of congestion)

Benefits 1,736 2,843 2,853 2,045

Net Present Value 1,224 1,892 2,205 1,506

Benefit Cost Ratio 3.4 3.0 4.4 3.8

31

November 2017

Highest

BCR and

NPV

VicRoads

Recommendation of preferred bundle(s)

• The economic appraisal indicated that Bundle 3A provides the

highest benefit cost ratio and net present value. Thus, based on the

early bundle assessment process and detailed assessment, Bundle

3A is superior and most aligned to the investment objectives.

• Bundle 3B has the second highest benefit cost ratio and net present

value. Bundle 3B was assessed to provide a lower cost alternative to

Bundle 3A, with the scope difference being the exclusion of O’Shea

Road Extension.

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November 2017

monash freeway upgrade stage 2 - major road …...• direct construction costs • indirect...

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