Oct. 8, 2007

M O N R O V I A , L I B E R I A : S E C U R I T Y A S S E S S M E N T Country Located on the coast of West Africa, Liberia is recovering from years of civil war. Wars from 1989 to 1996 and 1999 to 2003 broke out when various rebel factions fought different government forces brought to power by coups. The wars left the country's economy in shambles and caused significant damage to Liberian society. The large number of demobilized fighters from the civil wars, combined with Liberia's high unemployment rate, makes for an unstable security environment. Although the U.S. State Department does not advise against travel to Liberia, it cautions U.S. citizens traveling there to plan their trip very carefully. City Monrovia is Liberia's largest city, with a population estimated at more than 1.5 million people. Monrovia, which lies between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mesurado River, serves as a major port. Monrovia has two main parts, the Town (downtown) and the Sinkor district. The Town is the city's commercial district, while Sinkor consists mainly of schools and government buildings. Sinkor begins approximately east of the Town and runs for six miles to Elwa Junction, one of greater Monrovia's many slums with multiple abandoned buildings filled with refugees. The U.S. Embassy and EU diplomatic missions are in the area of the Town known as Mamba Point. The U.S. Embassy is located at 111 United Nations Drive. Normal working hours are 2 p.m. to 4:30 p.m. Monday through Friday. For emergencies, the Marine guard post at the embassy is manned 24 hours a day and can be reached in Liberia by calling 77-05-4825 or 77-05-4826. Liberia's country code is 231; calls to Liberian numbers from the United States must be preceded by dialing 011-231. Terrorism There is no significant jihadist or transnational militant presence in Liberia. There has been no significant act of terrorism in the country since the end of the last civil war, when rebel factions carried out attacks against each other and local populations. The threat of Terrorism in Monrovia is low.1

Crime The government has been unable to reintegrate ex-combatants from the country's civil wars back into society. Unemployment is high among these former fighters, most of whom are very young and uneducated. Moreover, the countryside beyond the capital remains largely ungoverned and beyond the effective control of the Liberian government.

© 2007 Strategic Forecasting, Inc. 1

Given the high rate of unemployment, crime is prevalent in Monrovia. Although most of it tends to be nonviolent, incidents involving small arms, knives or machetes do occur. Serious crimes such as murder, sexual assault, assault, and theft often occur after dark. For this reason the U.S. Embassy suggests observing a personal curfew of 2 a.m. to 6 a.m. In Monrovia, foreigners are generally not victims of violent crime, although to

avoid being robbed they should not display valuables (jewelry, cash, cell phones, etc.). Foreigners and U.S. citizens have fallen victim to street crime such as robbery and sexual assault. Attacks against foreign women on deserted beaches also have been reported. Visitors should avoid traveling at night inside or outside of Monrovia. Liberian police generally are ill equipped and incapable of dealing with or investigating most serious crime. Monrovia is considered a transshipment point for Asian heroin, South American cocaine, arms dealings, and the diamond trade. The lack of a well-developed financial system makes Monrovia a poor money-laundering center, however. In general, travelers not involved in these criminal enterprises have very little risk of becoming a victim of any violence associated with them. Liberia's police force, which was practically destroyed during the civil wars, is being rebuilt. The United Nations has created a U.N. Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) in an effort to maintain political stability. This includes a U.N. Police (UNPOL) contingent. UNPOL officers are unarmed and serve as advisers to the Liberian National Police and therefore have no actual authority and should not be depended upon for real assistance. The Liberian National Police has a limited presence in Monrovia and even less a presence outside the capital. As in many West African counties, the police can be more a source of problems for visitors than a source of aid. With UNPOL oversight, police corruption has improved, but travelers could be detained by Liberian police officers soliciting bribes. Delays can occur at checkpoints on roads outside of Monrovia as well. The threat of crime in Monrovia is high.2

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War and Insurgency With the United States as Liberia's security guarantor, there is little threat of war from its neighbors. Though Liberia no longer faces an active insurgency, there are still an estimated 22,000 ex-combatants who fought in the country's civil wars. Most of them are unskilled, uneducated and untrained for

gainful employment. If they are not rehabilitated, their presence could eventually pose a threat of insurrection. There is no immediate threat of a resumption of fighting in Liberia, however. The threat of war and insurgency in Monrovia is low.3

Political Instability The government of President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf exercises a great degree of control over Monrovia, but has little authority outside the city. The 2,000-man Liberian army is considered politically reliable and unlikely to stage a coup d'état. As Washington's closest ally in Africa, the United States has a significant interest in maintaining stability in Liberia. Though no political protests or rallies are expected to occur during the dates of travel, travelers should avoid crowded streets and large public gatherings. The threat of political instability in Monrovia is low.4

Miscellaneous Threats There is no reliable taxi or bus service from Roberts International Airport, which is located 40 miles outside of Monrovia. Visitors are advised to make transportation arrangements from the airport in advance of their trip with a reliable, vetted source in country. Conditions at the airport frequently are crowded and chaotic during arrivals and departures of commercial flights. The physical condition of the roads in Liberia makes travel extremely difficult and dangerous. Most roads in Monrovia are poorly lit and maintained, and few roads outside Monrovia are paved. Most vehicles also are poorly maintained, overloaded and erratically driven. The lack of a sewer system will make it difficult for travelers to get around Monrovia during downpours, which occur often during the rainy season, lasting from May to October. Travelers also should expect delays at all UNMIL security checkpoints and long detours because of the country's deteriorating infrastructure.

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Yellow fever, malaria and waterborne and tropical diseases can be contracted in Monrovia, and travelers to the city are required to receive a yellow fever inoculation and are advised to take anti-malarial medication. Travelers also are strongly advised to drink only bottled beverages. Monrovia has very limited medical facilities, and should a traveler require medical attention beyond basic first aid, evacuation to a medical facility in a European city is recommended. Because of the unavailability of medications beyond the very basics, travelers who must take medications for pre-existing conditions should bring their own supply. Travelers should not expect to use credit or debit cards while in Monrovia, since most businesses -- even hotels and restaurants -- do not accept them. Visitors should bring a sufficient quantity of U.S. dollars to cover expenses during their stay. The miscellaneous thereat in Monrovia is medium.5

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1. Terrorism threat levels. Low: No known credible threat. Medium: Potential but unsubstantiated threats by capable indigenous or transnational actors. High: Demonstrable history and continued potential for militant attacks against generalized targets. Foreigners and/or foreign facilities are not specifically targeted. Critical: Demonstrable history and continued likelihood of militant attacks. Foreigners and/or foreign facilities are specifically targeted.

2. Crime threat levels. Low: Relatively low crime rate, mainly property or petty crime.

Medium: Generally high crime rate with incidents of property crime that specifically targets foreigners, low potential for violence. High: Generally high crime rate with incidents of property crime that specifically targets foreigners, probability of violence and moderate risk of physical crime. Critical: Extensive criminal activity targeting foreigners with a high possibility of physical crime, including violence and kidnapping; heavily armed criminal elements abundant.

3. War and Insurgency threat levels. Low: No or relatively low threat of violent insurgency. Medium: Nearby insurgency with the potential of affecting city, region, country or transportation network. High: Insurgency within the city, region or country but with little direct effect on foreigners. Critical: Insurgency within the city, region or country directly threatening foreigners.

4. Political Instability threat levels. Low: No or minimal visible activity directed against the

government. Medium: Sporadic street demonstrations, largely peaceful. High: Routine large-scale demonstrations, often affecting traffic and having the potential for violence. Critical: Endemic strikes, protests and street demonstrations almost always affecting traffic with a high probability of associated violence.

5. Miscellaneous threat levels. Low: Little or no known threats posed by disease, weather,

natural disasters, transportation hazards or other dangers. Medium: Moderate level of risk posed by some or all of these threats. High: Considerable danger posed by some or all of these threats. Critical: Extremely high level of danger posed by some or all of these threats.

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