monte carlo simulation of the law of the maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 monte...

47
1/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´ evy Process Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a evy Process A. E. Kyprianou, J.C.Pardo and K. van Schaik Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Bath

Upload: others

Post on 27-Mar-2020

4 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

1/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of aLevy Process

A. E. Kyprianou, J.C.Pardo and K. van Schaik

Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Bath

Page 2: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

2/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Motivation

Levy process. A (one dimensional) process with stationary andindependent increments which has paths which are right continuous withleft limits and therefore includes Brownian motion with drift, compoundPoisson processes, stable processes amongst many others).

A popular model in mathematical finance for the evolution of a risky assetis

St := eXt , t ≥ 0

where {Xt : t ≥ 0} is a Levy process.

Barrier options: The value of up-and-out barrier option with expiry date Tand barrier bis typically priced as

Es(f (ST )1{ST≤b})

where ST = supu≤T Su = exp{supu≤T Xu}, f is some nice function.

Other motivations from queuing theory, population models etc.

One is fundamentally interested in the joint distribution

P(Xt ∈ dx , X t ∈ dy)

for any Levy process (X ,P).

Page 3: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

2/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Motivation

Levy process. A (one dimensional) process with stationary andindependent increments which has paths which are right continuous withleft limits and therefore includes Brownian motion with drift, compoundPoisson processes, stable processes amongst many others).

A popular model in mathematical finance for the evolution of a risky assetis

St := eXt , t ≥ 0

where {Xt : t ≥ 0} is a Levy process.

Barrier options: The value of up-and-out barrier option with expiry date Tand barrier bis typically priced as

Es(f (ST )1{ST≤b})

where ST = supu≤T Su = exp{supu≤T Xu}, f is some nice function.

Other motivations from queuing theory, population models etc.

One is fundamentally interested in the joint distribution

P(Xt ∈ dx , X t ∈ dy)

for any Levy process (X ,P).

Page 4: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

2/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Motivation

Levy process. A (one dimensional) process with stationary andindependent increments which has paths which are right continuous withleft limits and therefore includes Brownian motion with drift, compoundPoisson processes, stable processes amongst many others).

A popular model in mathematical finance for the evolution of a risky assetis

St := eXt , t ≥ 0

where {Xt : t ≥ 0} is a Levy process.

Barrier options: The value of up-and-out barrier option with expiry date Tand barrier bis typically priced as

Es(f (ST )1{ST≤b})

where ST = supu≤T Su = exp{supu≤T Xu}, f is some nice function.

Other motivations from queuing theory, population models etc.

One is fundamentally interested in the joint distribution

P(Xt ∈ dx , X t ∈ dy)

for any Levy process (X ,P).

Page 5: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

2/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Motivation

Levy process. A (one dimensional) process with stationary andindependent increments which has paths which are right continuous withleft limits and therefore includes Brownian motion with drift, compoundPoisson processes, stable processes amongst many others).

A popular model in mathematical finance for the evolution of a risky assetis

St := eXt , t ≥ 0

where {Xt : t ≥ 0} is a Levy process.

Barrier options: The value of up-and-out barrier option with expiry date Tand barrier bis typically priced as

Es(f (ST )1{ST≤b})

where ST = supu≤T Su = exp{supu≤T Xu}, f is some nice function.

Other motivations from queuing theory, population models etc.

One is fundamentally interested in the joint distribution

P(Xt ∈ dx , X t ∈ dy)

for any Levy process (X ,P).

Page 6: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

2/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Motivation

Levy process. A (one dimensional) process with stationary andindependent increments which has paths which are right continuous withleft limits and therefore includes Brownian motion with drift, compoundPoisson processes, stable processes amongst many others).

A popular model in mathematical finance for the evolution of a risky assetis

St := eXt , t ≥ 0

where {Xt : t ≥ 0} is a Levy process.

Barrier options: The value of up-and-out barrier option with expiry date Tand barrier bis typically priced as

Es(f (ST )1{ST≤b})

where ST = supu≤T Su = exp{supu≤T Xu}, f is some nice function.

Other motivations from queuing theory, population models etc.

One is fundamentally interested in the joint distribution

P(Xt ∈ dx , X t ∈ dy)

for any Levy process (X ,P).

Page 7: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

2/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Motivation

Levy process. A (one dimensional) process with stationary andindependent increments which has paths which are right continuous withleft limits and therefore includes Brownian motion with drift, compoundPoisson processes, stable processes amongst many others).

A popular model in mathematical finance for the evolution of a risky assetis

St := eXt , t ≥ 0

where {Xt : t ≥ 0} is a Levy process.

Barrier options: The value of up-and-out barrier option with expiry date Tand barrier bis typically priced as

Es(f (ST )1{ST≤b})

where ST = supu≤T Su = exp{supu≤T Xu}, f is some nice function.

Other motivations from queuing theory, population models etc.

One is fundamentally interested in the joint distribution

P(Xt ∈ dx , X t ∈ dy)

for any Levy process (X ,P).

Page 8: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

3/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Fourier methods

Theoretically, things are already difficult enough if considering P(X t ∈ dy)or P(Xt ∈ dx), especially in the former case.

For the case of P(Xt ∈ dx) one is sometimes lucky and knows this inexplicit form. But usually one only knows something about

Ψ(θ) := −1

tlog E(e iθXt )

= aiθ +1

2σ2θ2 +

ZR(1− e iθx + iθx1{|x |≤1})Π(dx)

where a ∈ R, σ ∈ R and Π is a measure concentrated on R\{0} satisfyingRR(1 ∧ x2)Π(dx) < ∞...

...in which case there are fast-Fourier methods for inverting exp{−Ψ(θ)t}to give P(Xt ∈ dx).

For the case of P(X t ∈ dx), recent methods have concentrated on Fourierinversion of the, so called, Wiener-Hopf factors.

Page 9: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

3/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Fourier methods

Theoretically, things are already difficult enough if considering P(X t ∈ dy)or P(Xt ∈ dx), especially in the former case.

For the case of P(Xt ∈ dx) one is sometimes lucky and knows this inexplicit form. But usually one only knows something about

Ψ(θ) := −1

tlog E(e iθXt )

= aiθ +1

2σ2θ2 +

ZR(1− e iθx + iθx1{|x |≤1})Π(dx)

where a ∈ R, σ ∈ R and Π is a measure concentrated on R\{0} satisfyingRR(1 ∧ x2)Π(dx) < ∞...

...in which case there are fast-Fourier methods for inverting exp{−Ψ(θ)t}to give P(Xt ∈ dx).

For the case of P(X t ∈ dx), recent methods have concentrated on Fourierinversion of the, so called, Wiener-Hopf factors.

Page 10: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

3/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Fourier methods

Theoretically, things are already difficult enough if considering P(X t ∈ dy)or P(Xt ∈ dx), especially in the former case.

For the case of P(Xt ∈ dx) one is sometimes lucky and knows this inexplicit form. But usually one only knows something about

Ψ(θ) := −1

tlog E(e iθXt )

= aiθ +1

2σ2θ2 +

ZR(1− e iθx + iθx1{|x |≤1})Π(dx)

where a ∈ R, σ ∈ R and Π is a measure concentrated on R\{0} satisfyingRR(1 ∧ x2)Π(dx) < ∞...

...in which case there are fast-Fourier methods for inverting exp{−Ψ(θ)t}to give P(Xt ∈ dx).

For the case of P(X t ∈ dx), recent methods have concentrated on Fourierinversion of the, so called, Wiener-Hopf factors.

Page 11: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

3/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Fourier methods

Theoretically, things are already difficult enough if considering P(X t ∈ dy)or P(Xt ∈ dx), especially in the former case.

For the case of P(Xt ∈ dx) one is sometimes lucky and knows this inexplicit form. But usually one only knows something about

Ψ(θ) := −1

tlog E(e iθXt )

= aiθ +1

2σ2θ2 +

ZR(1− e iθx + iθx1{|x |≤1})Π(dx)

where a ∈ R, σ ∈ R and Π is a measure concentrated on R\{0} satisfyingRR(1 ∧ x2)Π(dx) < ∞...

...in which case there are fast-Fourier methods for inverting exp{−Ψ(θ)t}to give P(Xt ∈ dx).

For the case of P(X t ∈ dx), recent methods have concentrated on Fourierinversion of the, so called, Wiener-Hopf factors.

Page 12: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

3/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Fourier methods

Theoretically, things are already difficult enough if considering P(X t ∈ dy)or P(Xt ∈ dx), especially in the former case.

For the case of P(Xt ∈ dx) one is sometimes lucky and knows this inexplicit form. But usually one only knows something about

Ψ(θ) := −1

tlog E(e iθXt )

= aiθ +1

2σ2θ2 +

ZR(1− e iθx + iθx1{|x |≤1})Π(dx)

where a ∈ R, σ ∈ R and Π is a measure concentrated on R\{0} satisfyingRR(1 ∧ x2)Π(dx) < ∞...

...in which case there are fast-Fourier methods for inverting exp{−Ψ(θ)t}to give P(Xt ∈ dx).

For the case of P(X t ∈ dx), recent methods have concentrated on Fourierinversion of the, so called, Wiener-Hopf factors.

Page 13: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

4/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Wiener-Hopf-Fourier methods

Recall that it turns out that one may always uniquely decompose

q + Ψ(θ) = κ+(q ,−iθ)× κ−(q , iθ)

such that

E(e iθXeq ) =κ+(q , 0)

κ+(q ,−iθ)and E(e

iθXeq ) =κ−(q , 0)

κ−(q , iθ)

where eq is an independent and exponentially distributed random variablewith rate q > 0 and X t = infs≤t Xs .

Fourier inversion, first in θ and then in q would be an option for accessingthe law of X t and X t . However one is rarely in possession of the factorsκ+ and κ− (even after 60 years of research into this topic), and even thenthere is the issue of the double Fourier inversion.

There are no convenient formulae which contain both Xt and X t whichcould be Fourier inverted.

Page 14: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

4/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Wiener-Hopf-Fourier methods

Recall that it turns out that one may always uniquely decompose

q + Ψ(θ) = κ+(q ,−iθ)× κ−(q , iθ)

such that

E(e iθXeq ) =κ+(q , 0)

κ+(q ,−iθ)and E(e

iθXeq ) =κ−(q , 0)

κ−(q , iθ)

where eq is an independent and exponentially distributed random variablewith rate q > 0 and X t = infs≤t Xs .

Fourier inversion, first in θ and then in q would be an option for accessingthe law of X t and X t . However one is rarely in possession of the factorsκ+ and κ− (even after 60 years of research into this topic), and even thenthere is the issue of the double Fourier inversion.

There are no convenient formulae which contain both Xt and X t whichcould be Fourier inverted.

Page 15: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

4/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Wiener-Hopf-Fourier methods

Recall that it turns out that one may always uniquely decompose

q + Ψ(θ) = κ+(q ,−iθ)× κ−(q , iθ)

such that

E(e iθXeq ) =κ+(q , 0)

κ+(q ,−iθ)and E(e

iθXeq ) =κ−(q , 0)

κ−(q , iθ)

where eq is an independent and exponentially distributed random variablewith rate q > 0 and X t = infs≤t Xs .

Fourier inversion, first in θ and then in q would be an option for accessingthe law of X t and X t . However one is rarely in possession of the factorsκ+ and κ− (even after 60 years of research into this topic), and even thenthere is the issue of the double Fourier inversion.

There are no convenient formulae which contain both Xt and X t whichcould be Fourier inverted.

Page 16: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

4/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Wiener-Hopf-Fourier methods

Recall that it turns out that one may always uniquely decompose

q + Ψ(θ) = κ+(q ,−iθ)× κ−(q , iθ)

such that

E(e iθXeq ) =κ+(q , 0)

κ+(q ,−iθ)and E(e

iθXeq ) =κ−(q , 0)

κ−(q , iθ)

where eq is an independent and exponentially distributed random variablewith rate q > 0 and X t = infs≤t Xs .

Fourier inversion, first in θ and then in q would be an option for accessingthe law of X t and X t . However one is rarely in possession of the factorsκ+ and κ− (even after 60 years of research into this topic), and even thenthere is the issue of the double Fourier inversion.

There are no convenient formulae which contain both Xt and X t whichcould be Fourier inverted.

Page 17: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

5/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Some new ideas

Suppose that e(1), e(2), · · · are a sequence of i.i.d unit mean exponentiallydistributed random variables.

Note that

g(n, λ) :=

nXi=1

1

λe(i)

is a Gamma (Erlang) distribution with parameters n and λ and by thestrong law of Large numbers, for t > 0,

g(n,n/t) =

nXi=1

t

ne(i) → t

almost surely.

Hence for a suitably large n, we have in distribution

(Xg(n,n/t),X g(n,n/t)) ' (Xt ,X t).

Indeed since t is not a jump time with probability 1, we have that(Xg(n,n/t),X g(n,n/t)) → (Xt ,X t) almost surely.

Page 18: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

5/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Some new ideas

Suppose that e(1), e(2), · · · are a sequence of i.i.d unit mean exponentiallydistributed random variables.

Note that

g(n, λ) :=

nXi=1

1

λe(i)

is a Gamma (Erlang) distribution with parameters n and λ and by thestrong law of Large numbers, for t > 0,

g(n,n/t) =

nXi=1

t

ne(i) → t

almost surely.

Hence for a suitably large n, we have in distribution

(Xg(n,n/t),X g(n,n/t)) ' (Xt ,X t).

Indeed since t is not a jump time with probability 1, we have that(Xg(n,n/t),X g(n,n/t)) → (Xt ,X t) almost surely.

Page 19: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

5/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Some new ideas

Suppose that e(1), e(2), · · · are a sequence of i.i.d unit mean exponentiallydistributed random variables.

Note that

g(n, λ) :=

nXi=1

1

λe(i)

is a Gamma (Erlang) distribution with parameters n and λ and by thestrong law of Large numbers, for t > 0,

g(n,n/t) =

nXi=1

t

ne(i) → t

almost surely.

Hence for a suitably large n, we have in distribution

(Xg(n,n/t),X g(n,n/t)) ' (Xt ,X t).

Indeed since t is not a jump time with probability 1, we have that(Xg(n,n/t),X g(n,n/t)) → (Xt ,X t) almost surely.

Page 20: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

5/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Some new ideas

Suppose that e(1), e(2), · · · are a sequence of i.i.d unit mean exponentiallydistributed random variables.

Note that

g(n, λ) :=

nXi=1

1

λe(i)

is a Gamma (Erlang) distribution with parameters n and λ and by thestrong law of Large numbers, for t > 0,

g(n,n/t) =

nXi=1

t

ne(i) → t

almost surely.

Hence for a suitably large n, we have in distribution

(Xg(n,n/t),X g(n,n/t)) ' (Xt ,X t).

Indeed since t is not a jump time with probability 1, we have that(Xg(n,n/t),X g(n,n/t)) → (Xt ,X t) almost surely.

Page 21: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

6/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Some new ideas

A reformulation of the Wiener-Hopf factorization states that

Xeq

d= Sq + Iq

where Sq is independent of Iq and they are respectively equal indistribution to X eq and X eq

.

Taking advantage of the above, the fact that X has stationary andindependent increments and the fact that, as a time, g(n,n/t) can beseen as n subsequent independent exponential time periods we have thefollowing:

Page 22: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

6/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Some new ideas

A reformulation of the Wiener-Hopf factorization states that

Xeq

d= Sq + Iq

where Sq is independent of Iq and they are respectively equal indistribution to X eq and X eq

.

Taking advantage of the above, the fact that X has stationary andindependent increments and the fact that, as a time, g(n,n/t) can beseen as n subsequent independent exponential time periods we have thefollowing:

Page 23: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

6/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Some new ideas

A reformulation of the Wiener-Hopf factorization states that

Xeq

d= Sq + Iq

where Sq is independent of Iq and they are respectively equal indistribution to X eq and X eq

.

Taking advantage of the above, the fact that X has stationary andindependent increments and the fact that, as a time, g(n,n/t) can beseen as n subsequent independent exponential time periods we have thefollowing:

Page 24: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

7/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Some new ideas

Theorem. For all n ∈ {1, 2, · · · } and λ > 0,

(Xg(n,λ),X g(n,λ))d= (V (n, λ), J (n, λ))

where

V (n, λ) =

nXj=1

{S (j)λ +I

(j)λ } and J (n, λ) :=

n−1_i=0

iX

j=1

{S (j)λ + I

(j)λ }+ S

(i+1)λ

!.

Here, S(0)λ = I

(0)λ = 0, {S (j)

λ : j ≥ 1} are an i.i.d. sequence of randomvariables with common distribution equal to that of X eλ and

{I (j)λ : j ≥ 1} are another i.i.d. sequence of random variable with common

distribution equal to that of X eλ.

Moreover, we have the following obvious:

Corollary. We have as n ↑ ∞

(V (n,n/t), J (n,n/t)) → (Xt ,X t)

where the convergence is understood in the distributional sense.

Page 25: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

7/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Some new ideas

Theorem. For all n ∈ {1, 2, · · · } and λ > 0,

(Xg(n,λ),X g(n,λ))d= (V (n, λ), J (n, λ))

where

V (n, λ) =

nXj=1

{S (j)λ +I

(j)λ } and J (n, λ) :=

n−1_i=0

iX

j=1

{S (j)λ + I

(j)λ }+ S

(i+1)λ

!.

Here, S(0)λ = I

(0)λ = 0, {S (j)

λ : j ≥ 1} are an i.i.d. sequence of randomvariables with common distribution equal to that of X eλ and

{I (j)λ : j ≥ 1} are another i.i.d. sequence of random variable with common

distribution equal to that of X eλ.

Moreover, we have the following obvious:

Corollary. We have as n ↑ ∞

(V (n,n/t), J (n,n/t)) → (Xt ,X t)

where the convergence is understood in the distributional sense.

Page 26: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

7/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Some new ideas

Theorem. For all n ∈ {1, 2, · · · } and λ > 0,

(Xg(n,λ),X g(n,λ))d= (V (n, λ), J (n, λ))

where

V (n, λ) =

nXj=1

{S (j)λ +I

(j)λ } and J (n, λ) :=

n−1_i=0

iX

j=1

{S (j)λ + I

(j)λ }+ S

(i+1)λ

!.

Here, S(0)λ = I

(0)λ = 0, {S (j)

λ : j ≥ 1} are an i.i.d. sequence of randomvariables with common distribution equal to that of X eλ and

{I (j)λ : j ≥ 1} are another i.i.d. sequence of random variable with common

distribution equal to that of X eλ.

Moreover, we have the following obvious:

Corollary. We have as n ↑ ∞

(V (n,n/t), J (n,n/t)) → (Xt ,X t)

where the convergence is understood in the distributional sense.

Page 27: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

8/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Monte-Carlo simulation

The previous results suggest that to simulate, for example, E(g(Xt ,X t))one should follow the following algorithm:

Sample independently from the distribution X en/tand X en/t

n ×m-times

and then construct m independent versions of the variables V (n,n/t) andJ (n,n/t), say

{V (i)(n,n/t) : i = 1, · · · ,m} and {J (i)(n,n/t) : i = 1, · · · ,m}.

Then approximate

E(g(Xt ,X t)) '1

m

mXi=1

g(V (i)(n,n/t), J (i)(n,n/t)).

In effect this still leaves the problem of simulating from the unknowndistribution X en/t

and X en/t.

Page 28: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

8/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Monte-Carlo simulation

The previous results suggest that to simulate, for example, E(g(Xt ,X t))one should follow the following algorithm:

Sample independently from the distribution X en/tand X en/t

n ×m-times

and then construct m independent versions of the variables V (n,n/t) andJ (n,n/t), say

{V (i)(n,n/t) : i = 1, · · · ,m} and {J (i)(n,n/t) : i = 1, · · · ,m}.

Then approximate

E(g(Xt ,X t)) '1

m

mXi=1

g(V (i)(n,n/t), J (i)(n,n/t)).

In effect this still leaves the problem of simulating from the unknowndistribution X en/t

and X en/t.

Page 29: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

8/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Monte-Carlo simulation

The previous results suggest that to simulate, for example, E(g(Xt ,X t))one should follow the following algorithm:

Sample independently from the distribution X en/tand X en/t

n ×m-times

and then construct m independent versions of the variables V (n,n/t) andJ (n,n/t), say

{V (i)(n,n/t) : i = 1, · · · ,m} and {J (i)(n,n/t) : i = 1, · · · ,m}.

Then approximate

E(g(Xt ,X t)) '1

m

mXi=1

g(V (i)(n,n/t), J (i)(n,n/t)).

In effect this still leaves the problem of simulating from the unknowndistribution X en/t

and X en/t.

Page 30: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

8/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Monte-Carlo simulation

The previous results suggest that to simulate, for example, E(g(Xt ,X t))one should follow the following algorithm:

Sample independently from the distribution X en/tand X en/t

n ×m-times

and then construct m independent versions of the variables V (n,n/t) andJ (n,n/t), say

{V (i)(n,n/t) : i = 1, · · · ,m} and {J (i)(n,n/t) : i = 1, · · · ,m}.

Then approximate

E(g(Xt ,X t)) '1

m

mXi=1

g(V (i)(n,n/t), J (i)(n,n/t)).

In effect this still leaves the problem of simulating from the unknowndistribution X en/t

and X en/t.

Page 31: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

8/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Monte-Carlo simulation

The previous results suggest that to simulate, for example, E(g(Xt ,X t))one should follow the following algorithm:

Sample independently from the distribution X en/tand X en/t

n ×m-times

and then construct m independent versions of the variables V (n,n/t) andJ (n,n/t), say

{V (i)(n,n/t) : i = 1, · · · ,m} and {J (i)(n,n/t) : i = 1, · · · ,m}.

Then approximate

E(g(Xt ,X t)) '1

m

mXi=1

g(V (i)(n,n/t), J (i)(n,n/t)).

In effect this still leaves the problem of simulating from the unknowndistribution X en/t

and X en/t.

Page 32: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

9/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Recent advances in Wiener-Hopf theory

The suggested Monte-Carlo method would not make sense were it not forrecent advances in the theory of Wiener-Hopf factorization.Specifically there are many new examples of (two-sided) jumping Levyprocesses emerging for which sufficient analytical structure is in place inorder to sample from the two distributions X en/t

and X en/t. (β-Levy

processes, Lamperti-stable processes, Hypergeometric Levy processes, · · · )Case in point: The β-class of Levy processes (Kuznetsov (2009)).

Ψ(θ) = iaθ+1

2σ2θ2− c1

β1B

„α1 −

β1, 1− λ1

«− c2

β2B

„α2 −

β2, 1− λ2

«+γ

Where γ is a special constant and the underlying Levy measure Π hasdensity π given by

π(x) = c1e−α1β1x

(1− e−β1x )λ11{x>0} + c2

eα2β2x

(1− eβ2x )λ21{x<0}.

Note that the β-class of Levy process has exponential moments (needed towork with risk neutral measures), there is asymmetry in the jump structureand locally jumps are stable-like (similarly to eg CGMY processes)Moreover we can have infinite or finite activity, bounded or unboundedpath variation.

Page 33: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

9/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Recent advances in Wiener-Hopf theory

The suggested Monte-Carlo method would not make sense were it not forrecent advances in the theory of Wiener-Hopf factorization.

Specifically there are many new examples of (two-sided) jumping Levyprocesses emerging for which sufficient analytical structure is in place inorder to sample from the two distributions X en/t

and X en/t. (β-Levy

processes, Lamperti-stable processes, Hypergeometric Levy processes, · · · )Case in point: The β-class of Levy processes (Kuznetsov (2009)).

Ψ(θ) = iaθ+1

2σ2θ2− c1

β1B

„α1 −

β1, 1− λ1

«− c2

β2B

„α2 −

β2, 1− λ2

«+γ

Where γ is a special constant and the underlying Levy measure Π hasdensity π given by

π(x) = c1e−α1β1x

(1− e−β1x )λ11{x>0} + c2

eα2β2x

(1− eβ2x )λ21{x<0}.

Note that the β-class of Levy process has exponential moments (needed towork with risk neutral measures), there is asymmetry in the jump structureand locally jumps are stable-like (similarly to eg CGMY processes)Moreover we can have infinite or finite activity, bounded or unboundedpath variation.

Page 34: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

9/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Recent advances in Wiener-Hopf theory

The suggested Monte-Carlo method would not make sense were it not forrecent advances in the theory of Wiener-Hopf factorization.Specifically there are many new examples of (two-sided) jumping Levyprocesses emerging for which sufficient analytical structure is in place inorder to sample from the two distributions X en/t

and X en/t. (β-Levy

processes, Lamperti-stable processes, Hypergeometric Levy processes, · · · )

Case in point: The β-class of Levy processes (Kuznetsov (2009)).

Ψ(θ) = iaθ+1

2σ2θ2− c1

β1B

„α1 −

β1, 1− λ1

«− c2

β2B

„α2 −

β2, 1− λ2

«+γ

Where γ is a special constant and the underlying Levy measure Π hasdensity π given by

π(x) = c1e−α1β1x

(1− e−β1x )λ11{x>0} + c2

eα2β2x

(1− eβ2x )λ21{x<0}.

Note that the β-class of Levy process has exponential moments (needed towork with risk neutral measures), there is asymmetry in the jump structureand locally jumps are stable-like (similarly to eg CGMY processes)Moreover we can have infinite or finite activity, bounded or unboundedpath variation.

Page 35: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

9/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Recent advances in Wiener-Hopf theory

The suggested Monte-Carlo method would not make sense were it not forrecent advances in the theory of Wiener-Hopf factorization.Specifically there are many new examples of (two-sided) jumping Levyprocesses emerging for which sufficient analytical structure is in place inorder to sample from the two distributions X en/t

and X en/t. (β-Levy

processes, Lamperti-stable processes, Hypergeometric Levy processes, · · · )Case in point: The β-class of Levy processes (Kuznetsov (2009)).

Ψ(θ) = iaθ+1

2σ2θ2− c1

β1B

„α1 −

β1, 1− λ1

«− c2

β2B

„α2 −

β2, 1− λ2

«+γ

Where γ is a special constant and the underlying Levy measure Π hasdensity π given by

π(x) = c1e−α1β1x

(1− e−β1x )λ11{x>0} + c2

eα2β2x

(1− eβ2x )λ21{x<0}.

Note that the β-class of Levy process has exponential moments (needed towork with risk neutral measures), there is asymmetry in the jump structureand locally jumps are stable-like (similarly to eg CGMY processes)Moreover we can have infinite or finite activity, bounded or unboundedpath variation.

Page 36: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

9/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Recent advances in Wiener-Hopf theory

The suggested Monte-Carlo method would not make sense were it not forrecent advances in the theory of Wiener-Hopf factorization.Specifically there are many new examples of (two-sided) jumping Levyprocesses emerging for which sufficient analytical structure is in place inorder to sample from the two distributions X en/t

and X en/t. (β-Levy

processes, Lamperti-stable processes, Hypergeometric Levy processes, · · · )Case in point: The β-class of Levy processes (Kuznetsov (2009)).

Ψ(θ) = iaθ+1

2σ2θ2− c1

β1B

„α1 −

β1, 1− λ1

«− c2

β2B

„α2 −

β2, 1− λ2

«+γ

Where γ is a special constant and the underlying Levy measure Π hasdensity π given by

π(x) = c1e−α1β1x

(1− e−β1x )λ11{x>0} + c2

eα2β2x

(1− eβ2x )λ21{x<0}.

Note that the β-class of Levy process has exponential moments (needed towork with risk neutral measures), there is asymmetry in the jump structureand locally jumps are stable-like (similarly to eg CGMY processes)Moreover we can have infinite or finite activity, bounded or unboundedpath variation.

Page 37: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

10/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Case in point: The β-class of Levy processes

Kuznetsov shows that all the roots of the equation q + Ψ(θ) are onimaginary axis and those on the positive imaginary axis are all the roots onκ−(q , iθ) and those on the negative imaginary axis are all the roots ofκ+(q ,−iθ).

Analytic considerations allow him to conclude that eg E(e iθXeq ) is aninfinite product of rational functions.

The latter can be inverted giving the form of the density

P(X eq ∈ dx) =

0@Xn≤0

knζneζnx

1A dx

and he gives small intervals O(1) in length indicating the location of theroots iζn .

Page 38: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

10/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Case in point: The β-class of Levy processes

Kuznetsov shows that all the roots of the equation q + Ψ(θ) are onimaginary axis and those on the positive imaginary axis are all the roots onκ−(q , iθ) and those on the negative imaginary axis are all the roots ofκ+(q ,−iθ).

Analytic considerations allow him to conclude that eg E(e iθXeq ) is aninfinite product of rational functions.

The latter can be inverted giving the form of the density

P(X eq ∈ dx) =

0@Xn≤0

knζneζnx

1A dx

and he gives small intervals O(1) in length indicating the location of theroots iζn .

Page 39: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

10/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Case in point: The β-class of Levy processes

Kuznetsov shows that all the roots of the equation q + Ψ(θ) are onimaginary axis and those on the positive imaginary axis are all the roots onκ−(q , iθ) and those on the negative imaginary axis are all the roots ofκ+(q ,−iθ).

Analytic considerations allow him to conclude that eg E(e iθXeq ) is aninfinite product of rational functions.

The latter can be inverted giving the form of the density

P(X eq ∈ dx) =

0@Xn≤0

knζneζnx

1A dx

and he gives small intervals O(1) in length indicating the location of theroots iζn .

Page 40: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

10/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Case in point: The β-class of Levy processes

Kuznetsov shows that all the roots of the equation q + Ψ(θ) are onimaginary axis and those on the positive imaginary axis are all the roots onκ−(q , iθ) and those on the negative imaginary axis are all the roots ofκ+(q ,−iθ).

Analytic considerations allow him to conclude that eg E(e iθXeq ) is aninfinite product of rational functions.

The latter can be inverted giving the form of the density

P(X eq ∈ dx) =

0@Xn≤0

knζneζnx

1A dx

and he gives small intervals O(1) in length indicating the location of theroots iζn .

Page 41: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

11/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Test case: Brownian motion (simulated and known density) t = 1

Page 42: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

12/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

β-class t = 1,n = 10, a = 0, σ = 3/10, α1 = 10, β1 = 1/4, λ1 =1/2, c1 = 1/100, α2 = 10, β2 = 1/4, λ2 = 1/2, c2 = 1/100)

Page 43: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

13/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Simulated value function of European up-and-out call option with Xfrom β-family

2 4 6 8 10

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

With Gaussian part (strike=5, barrier=10, T=1)

Page 44: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

14/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Simulated value function of European up-and-out call option with Xfrom β-family

2 4 6 8 10

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

0.04

Irregular upwards (strike=5, barrier=10, T=1)

Page 45: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

15/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

Advantages over standard random walk approach

Standard random walk:- in general law of Xt not known, needs to be obtained by numericalFourier inversion.- always produces an atom at 0 when simulating X t (W-H MC methodproduces atom iff it is really present, i.e. iff X is irregular upwards).- well known bad performance when simulating X t (misses excursionsbetween grid points), W-H MC method performs significantly better inBrownian motion test case

Page 46: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

16/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

W-H MC method vs. random walk: P(X 1 ≤ z ) where X is BM; n =number of time steps (for r.w. 2n time steps)

Page 47: Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum …ak257/simulation-talk-fields.pdf2/ 17 Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a L´evy Process Motivation L´evy process

17/ 17

Monte Carlo Simulation of the Law of the Maximum of a Levy Process

W-H MC method vs. random walk: P(X1 ≤ z1, X 1 ≥ z2) where X isBM; 1000 time steps (for r.w. 2000 time steps)