monthly chart pack - favorite fifteen

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VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series September 20, 2021 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 801.28 845.85 ©FactSet Research Systems MSCI AC World (SR) (USD) Daily High: 863.95 Low: 460.24 Chg: 77.00% MSCI AC World (SR) (USD) - Price MSCI AC World (SR) (USD) - MA-50D MSCI AC World (SR) (USD) - MA-200D Recession Periods - United States Views from the Investment Policy Committee Monthly Chart Pack - Favorite Fifteen

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Page 1: Monthly Chart Pack - Favorite Fifteen

VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series

September 20, 2021

'17 '18 '19 '20 '21400

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850900

801.28845.85

©FactSet Research Systems

MSCI AC World (SR) (USD) DailyHigh: 863.95 Low: 460.24 Chg: 77.00%

MSCI AC World (SR) (USD) - Price MSCI AC World (SR) (USD) - MA-50DMSCI AC World (SR) (USD) - MA-200D Recession Periods - United States

Views from the Investment Policy CommitteeMonthly Chart Pack - Favorite Fifteen

Page 2: Monthly Chart Pack - Favorite Fifteen

VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series

Purpose

2

• The Monthly Chart Pack – Favorite Fifteen, is a brief collection of charts and data sets that are viewed regularly by many investors, it is NOT a set of recommendations

• This selection of 15 slides are a small subset of the graphs and data points that are viewed by the Investment Policy Committee each week in assessing the status of the business cycle and the health of financial markets

• Our study of the economic environment and market conditions inform our view for tactical positioning and may influence the security selection process

• We hope that you enjoy the Monthly Chart Pack – Favorite Fifteen, and recognize that the views and opinions expressed are capturing a moment in time and are subject to change without notice

Page 3: Monthly Chart Pack - Favorite Fifteen

VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series

10/19 1/20 4/20 7/20 10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

-34.7

0.005.1

©FactSet Research Systems

Citi Economic Surprise Index - Developed vs. Emerging DailyCiti Economic Surprise Index, Developed Markets Citi Economic Surprise Index, Emerging Markets Recession Periods - United States

Economic Activity vs. Expectations

3

Economy

The Citigroup Economic Surprise Indices are objective and quantitative measures of economic news. They are defined as weighted historical standard deviations of data surprises (actual vs. Bloomberg median). A positive reading suggests actual results are better than consensus had expected and is generally a positive catalyst for risk assets.

Trailing 2 Years

Page 4: Monthly Chart Pack - Favorite Fifteen

VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series

10/18 1/19 4/19 7/19 10/19 1/20 4/20 7/20 10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

50.00

52.652.954.1

©FactSet Research Systems

Global IHS Markit Monthly PMI Surveys DailyJP Morgan Global PMI Services - Activity Index JP Morgan Global PMI Manufacturing - Activity IndexJP Morgan Global PMI Composite - Output Index Recession Periods - United States

Global PMI Surveys

4

Economy

Trailing 3 Years

The Purchasing Managers’ Index Series are monthly economic surveys that provide an advance signal of what is happening in the real economy. They track activity variables such as output, new orders, supply times, employment and prices across key sectors.

The Series cover 30 countries and 86% of global GDP. The PMI is a diffusion index with values above 50 signaling expansion and below 50 indicating contraction. The further from 50 the faster the rate of change indicated.

The Composite (black line) accommodates the activities within the Manufacturing (blue line) and Services (orange line) sectors.

The Heat Map is conditionally formatted using the month-end data points in a rolling 20Y time series.

Date MfgAug-21 54.1Jul-21 55.4Jun-21 55.5

May-21 56.0Apr-21 55.8Mar-21 55.0Feb-21 54.0Jan-21 53.6Dec-20 53.8Nov-20 53.8Oct-20 53.1Sep-20 52.4Aug-20 51.8Jul-20 50.6Jun-20 48.0

May-20 42.4Apr-20 39.6Mar-20 47.3Feb-20 47.1Jan-20 50.3Dec-19 50.1Nov-19 50.3Oct-19 49.8Sep-19 49.7Aug-19 49.5

Srv52.956.357.559.557.054.752.851.651.852.252.952.052.050.748.135.223.736.847.152.751.951.650.951.451.8

Page 5: Monthly Chart Pack - Favorite Fifteen

VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series

'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

7.8%

12.2%

©FactSet Research Systems

NY Federal Reserve Weekly Economic Index DailyUSA - GDP Real Growth (YoY%) Weekly Economic Index - United States Recession Periods - United States

US Economic Activity Indicator

5

Economy

Trailing 15 Years

The Weekly Economic Index (green line) is a set of ten high frequency indicators of real economic activity, scaled to align with the four-quarter real GDP growth rate (gold line). It represents the common component of series covering consumer behavior, the labor market, and production. The NY Federal Reserve Bank designed the WEI to be a real-time indicator of activity in the US economy.

The WEI (green line) is instructive for investors in assessing the status of the economic cycle as it leads the Commerce Departments reporting of estimated real GDP growth (gold line).

The Heat Map is conditionally formatted using the month-end data points in a rolling 20Y time series.

Date WEIAug-21 8.3Jul-21 9.1Jun-21 10.0

May-21 11.2Apr-21 11.4Mar-21 2.9Feb-21 -1.9Jan-21 -1.8Dec-20 -1.9Nov-20 -2.7Oct-20 -3.8Sep-20 -5.1Aug-20 -5.5Jul-20 -7.1Jun-20 -8.2

May-20 -10.2Apr-20 -10.5Mar-20 -1.9Feb-20 1.6Jan-20 1.6Dec-19 1.5Nov-19 1.6Oct-19 1.5Sep-19 1.5Aug-19 1.6

Page 6: Monthly Chart Pack - Favorite Fifteen

VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series

'16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

2.3%

12.2%

©FactSet Research Systems

US Real GDP Growth - QoQ% vs YoY% Calendar QuarterlyUSA Real GDP (%q/q, SAAR) - Act/Est (Q) Real GDP, %Chg YoY - United States Recession Periods - United States

US Real GDP

6

Economy

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a macroeconomic statistic used to measure the value of goods and services produced by an economy in a specified period, adjusted for inflation. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) provides a quarterly report on GDP with headline data statistics representing annualized real GDP growth over the prior period. The report provides important detail on the components of GDP.

= Actual quarterly GDP

= Consensus estimated quarterly GDP

Trailing 5 Years

69.0%

17.7%

17.3%

4.7%

-3.9%

$0T

$2T

$4T

$6T

$8T

$10T

$12T

$14T

$16T

Components of GDP

Net Exports

Housing

Private Investment ex Housing

Government Spending

Personal Consumption

Current Quarter

Page 7: Monthly Chart Pack - Favorite Fifteen

VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '2120

30

40

50

60

70

50.00

59.960.161.766.7

©FactSet Research Systems

ISM Monthly Purchasing Manager Surveys - Output vs New Orders MonthlyISM Manufacturing Output ISM Manufacturing, New Orders ISM Services Output ISM Services, Business ActivityRecession Periods - United States

Date MfgAug-21 59.9Jul-21 59.5Jun-21 60.6

May-21 61.2Apr-21 60.7Mar-21 64.7Feb-21 60.8Jan-21 58.7Dec-20 60.5Nov-20 57.7Oct-20 58.8Sep-20 55.7Aug-20 55.6Jul-20 53.7Jun-20 52.2

May-20 43.1Apr-20 41.7Mar-20 49.7Feb-20 50.3Jan-20 50.9Dec-19 47.8Nov-19 48.1Oct-19 48.5Sep-19 48.2Aug-19 48.8

ISM Monthly Report on Business

7

Expansion

Contraction

The ISM Report on Business is based on a national survey of purchasing managers tracking changes in the Manufacturing and Services sectors. They have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction and scope of change. Values above 50 signal expansion and below 50 indicate contraction. The further from 50 the faster the rate of change indicated.

The manufacturing “new orders” (light blue line) can be a good leading indicator of the manufacturing “output” (dark blue line) in the economy, and the services “business activity” (light orange line) often leads the services “output” (orange line) index.

Economy

Trailing 20 Years

Srv61.764.160.164.062.763.755.358.757.756.856.257.257.256.656.545.441.653.656.755.554.953.954.453.556.0

The Heat Map is conditionally formatted using the month-end data points in a rolling 20Y time series.

Page 8: Monthly Chart Pack - Favorite Fifteen

VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series

US Consumer Spending

8

Economy

The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey, a random sampling of approximately 5,500 retail firms whose sales are weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over 3 million retailers in the United States. Monthly data is adjusted to accommodate seasonal variation, holidays and trading-day differences.

Retail Sales can be quite volatile from month to month (light blue, light orange), so viewing a 3-month moving average (dark blue, dark orange) may provide a better picture of consumer sentiment. Retail Sales are reported in total (orange lines) and backing out Auto (blue lines).

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

15.1%16.2%16.3%16.7%

©FactSet Research Systems

US Retail and Food Service Sales - Current vs 3m MA MonthlyRetail And Food Service Sales, YoY% - United States Retail And Food Service Sales, Excl. Motor Vehicle And Parts, YoY% - United StatesRetail And Food Service Sales, 3m MA - United States Retail And Food Service Sales, Excl. Motor Vehicle And Parts, 3m MA - United StatesRecession Periods - United States

Trailing 20 Years

Page 9: Monthly Chart Pack - Favorite Fifteen

VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series

US Employment

9

Economy

The Bureau of Labor Statistics compiles and releases the “Employment Situation” report on the first Friday of each month. The Establishment Survey provides considerable detail around the nonfarm payroll statistics that incorporate sector-specific data and cover an estimated 80% of US business. The headline number (blue bars) is an estimate of the number of new nonfarm payrolls added to the national economy over the past month. The Household Survey portion of the report is what determines the unemployment rate (gold line) that garners attention.

AVG: -163.25

10/19 1/20 4/20 7/20 10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21-25,000

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

5.2%

235

©FactSet Research Systems

US Monthly Total Nonfarm Payroll MonthlyAll Employees, Total Nonfarm Payroll, Thousands of Persons, SA - United States USA - Unemployment Rate Recession Periods - United States

Trailing 2 Years

Page 10: Monthly Chart Pack - Favorite Fifteen

VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series

US Housing Market

10

Economy

The Existing Home Sales report is released monthly by the National Association of Realtors based on closed residential real estate transactions. It is considered a lagging indicator because of the time lag between buyer commitment and the transaction closing. The data presents transaction volume (black line) and pricing across four regions – Northeast, South, Midwest and West.

AVG: 5247.25

'12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

5,880

©FactSet Research Systems

US Existing Home Sales MonthlyUSA - Existing Home Sales (000's) SAAR Recession Periods - United States

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

2.2%

2.4%

2.6%

2.8%

3.0%

3.2%

3.4%

2.3%

3.0%

©FactSet Research Systems

US Mortgage Rates DailyNational Average - 15 Years Fixed Mortgage RateNational Average - 30 Years Fixed Mortgage Rate

Trailing 10 Years

Page 11: Monthly Chart Pack - Favorite Fifteen

VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series

US Monetary Policy

11

Is this the ultimate “don’t fight the Fed” moment?

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

$8,448,770

©FactSet Research Systems

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet MonthlyH.4.1. Assets Of All Federal Reserve Banks, Mil USD - United StatesRecession Periods - United States

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

12.1%

©FactSet Research Systems

M2 Money Supply Growth (YoY%) MonthlyUSA - Money Supply - M2 (YoY%) Recession Periods - United States

Fixed Income

The adage “Don’t Fight the Fed” has been a longtime truth for investors. The Federal Reserve adjusts the supply and cost (interest rates) of money available to the economy within its dual mandate of promoting economic growth while maintaining price stability. The Fed has many policy tools at its disposal. The influence of monetary policy on the prices of risk assets should not be underestimated.

Trailing 20 Years Trailing 20 Years

Page 12: Monthly Chart Pack - Favorite Fifteen

VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series

US Treasury Yields vs. Inflation

12

Fixed Income

Investors consider US Treasury Bonds to be free of default risk, leaving interest rate risk as the primary concern. Bonds are subject to interest rate risk, since rising rates will result in falling prices and vice-versa. The longer the maturity the greater the sensitivity to changes in rates.

Interest rates respond to inflation - a bonds worst enemy. When prices in an economy rise, or are expected to rise, investors will demand a higher yield-to-maturity to compensate them for the erosion of purchasing power. This is of particular concern for longer dated bonds.

10/18 1/19 4/19 7/19 10/19 1/20 4/20 7/20 10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

0.04%0.23%

0.86%

1.37%

4.0%

©FactSet Research Systems

US Treasury Yields by Maturity DailyUS Govt Yield - 3 Mo US Govt Yield - 2 Yr US Govt Yield - 5 Yr US Govt Yield - 10 Yr USA - CPI Core Total (YoY%) Recession Periods - United States

= YoY % rate of inflation based on Core Consumer Price Index

Trailing 3 Years

Page 13: Monthly Chart Pack - Favorite Fifteen

VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series

Investment Grade Credit Spreads

13

Fixed Income

A credit spread is the difference in yield between a US Treasury Bond (risk-free) and another bond of similar maturity. Corporate bonds, even for the most stable and highly rated companies, are considered to be riskier investments for which the investor demands compensation.

Fluctuations in credit spreads are often a reflection of changing expectations around economic conditions and issuer default risk. Credit spreads can be a good barometer of economic health – widening when growth slows and narrowing when growth improves.

10/19 1/20 4/20 7/20 10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21

50bps

100bps

150bps

200bps

250bps

300bps

350bps

400bps

27.1

64.7

©FactSet Research Systems

US Investment Grade Credit Spreads DailyUS Aggregate Corporate Credit, Intermediate - Investment Grade (BBB) US Aggregate Corporate Credit, Intermediate - Investment Grade (AA) Recession Periods - United States

= BBB rated credit spread to US Treasury

= AA rated credit spread to US Treasury

Trailing 2 Years

Page 14: Monthly Chart Pack - Favorite Fifteen

VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

4120.75

4432.99

©FactSet Research Systems

S&P 500 Price vs Moving Averages DailyHigh: 4440.63 Low: 788.35 Chg: 283.64%

S&P 500 - MA-50D S&P 500 - MA-200D S&P 500 - Price Recession Periods - United States

S&P 500 Inflection Points

14

PE = 20.9xCharacteristic March 2000 October 2007 February 2020 September 2021

Index Level 1,527 1,565 3,386 4,432

P/E Ratio NTM 27.2x 15.7x 19.0x 20.9x

Dividend Yield 1.4% 1.9% 1.9% 1.3%

10Yr Treasury 6.2% 4.7% 1.6% 1.3%

PE = 13.1x

PE = 10.3x

PE = 15.7x

PE = 14.1x

PE = 19.0x

Equities

The ability for companies to navigate their way through the ebb and flow of business cycles is a key determinant in the stream of profits available to investors. Over the long-term, stocks love profits and will follow their path.

The price that investors are willing to pay to participate in the long-term stream of profits may be determined by an objective valuation process. But in the short-term, the price of stocks is frequently subject to the shifting investor sentiment between fear and greed.

Trailing 20 Years

Page 15: Monthly Chart Pack - Favorite Fifteen

VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series

'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

$220$212.55$217.95

©FactSet Research Systems

S&P 500 DailyEPS - Act/Est EPS - NTM Recession Periods - United States

S&P 500 Earnings

15

Stocks love profits. The long-term path of a stock market follows the investor expectations for higher earnings. Periods of earnings uncertainty are often met with market declines. But, as the outlook for profits improves, markets tend to look past the trough and toward the renewed earnings trajectory.

Equities

= Actual Calendar Year Earnings

= Consensus Estimated Calendar Year Earnings

= Consensus Estimated Next Twelve Months Earnings

Trailing 20 Years & 2 Years Forward

Page 16: Monthly Chart Pack - Favorite Fifteen

VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

20.9

©FactSet Research Systems

S&P 500 Valuation DailyS&P 500 - PE - NTM Recession Periods - United States

S&P 500 Valuation

16

Equities

Methods for valuing the stock market are plentiful, from using a simple Price/Earnings Ratio to employing a more complex model that contemplates future cash flows and discount rates. A wide variety of methods are used by investors everyday.

The P/E ratio is used by investors to determine the relative value of a market against its own historical record or to compare markets over time.

Trailing 20 Years

Valuation Description Latest* 20 Yr AveP/E Forward P/E 20.9x 15.7x

CAPE Shiller's P/E 38.1x 25.6x

Div Yield Dividend Yield 1.3% 1.9%

P/S Price to Sales 2.7x 1.6x

+1 standard deviation

-1 standard deviation

20Y average

Page 17: Monthly Chart Pack - Favorite Fifteen

VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series

Sector Dashboard

17

Equities

The Stock Market is a market of stocks that can be compartmentalized into sectors. Constituents of a sector often share a similar sensitivity to the ebbs and flows of the business cycle. Each sector has its own identity and characteristics that can be examined by investors.

55.1% 53.1%

44.6%

37.9%34.0% 33.7%

28.0% 28.0%24.7% 23.6%

15.4% 15.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1 Year, Total Return

Sector Financials Materials Real Estate Industrials Discretionary Info Tech Energy Health Care Staples Communications Utilities S&P 500 Index

Sector Weight 11.1% 2.5% 2.6% 8.0% 12.2% 28.0% 2.5% 13.4% 5.8% 11.4% 2.5% 100.0%

Dividend Yield 1.7% 1.8% 2.2% 1.4% 0.5% 0.8% 4.4% 1.4% 2.6% 0.8% 3.1% 1.3%

NTM P/E 13.9x 16.1x 23.1x 21.2x 31.6x 26.0x 12.9x 17.5x 20.5x 22.1x 19.3x 20.9x

LTM P/B 1.5x 3.2x 4.3x 5.7x 11.4x 11.4x 1.6x 5.4x 6.1x 4.7x 2.2x 4.6x

NTM P/S 2.7x 2.1x 8.3x 2.1x 2.5x 6.5x 1.0x 1.9x 1.4x 3.8x 2.8x 2.7x

1Y Beta 1.04 1.06 0.68 1.03 1.15 1.15 1.05 0.83 0.67 0.94 0.59 1.00

30D RSI 47.72 41.22 49.77 41.51 56.32 50.98 48.39 49.33 51.71 54.99 44.04 49.67

NTM = Next Twelve Months estimateLTM = Last Twelve Months actual Red Shade may suggest relative warning signalRSI = Relative Strength Index Green Shade may suggest relative opportunity

Page 18: Monthly Chart Pack - Favorite Fifteen

VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series

Markets Scorecard

18

BONUS

Annualized1 Month 3 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 15 Years 20 Years

MSCI ACWI 0.11% 4.28% 18.20% 32.53% 15.06% 15.35% 13.95% 8.44% 8.36%MSCI USA -0.03% 5.52% 18.87% 35.13% 18.26% 18.35% 16.31% 10.88% 9.80%MSCI Europe -2.30% 0.49% 17.06% 25.57% 8.96% 9.58% 10.18% 5.55% 6.29%MSCI Asia ex. Japan 1.82% -5.43% 0.27% 14.59% 10.63% 11.13% 8.81% 8.30% 11.32%MSCI Japan 9.52% 7.06% 17.75% 32.74% 10.27% 12.77% 13.03% 3.89% 5.59%MSCI Emerging Markets 1.73% -4.24% 2.29% 16.87% 11.05% 11.29% 8.53% 7.95% 11.94%Dow Jones Industrial Average -1.88% 2.75% 14.58% 26.32% 12.37% 16.42% 14.36% 10.32% 9.65%Nasdaq Composite 2.72% 6.39% 17.28% 38.83% 25.12% 24.69% 20.42% 14.73% N/AS&P 500 Composite -0.20% 5.36% 19.26% 34.04% 17.45% 17.89% 16.13% 10.67% 9.68%S&P 500 Equal-Weighted -0.68% 2.97% 21.07% 40.27% 14.95% 15.47% 15.15% 10.86% 11.20%S&P 400 Mid-Cap -0.41% 0.88% 17.11% 43.68% 11.45% 13.75% 13.71% 10.51% 10.97%S&P 600 Small-Cap 0.72% -2.10% 19.94% 53.92% 8.98% 14.06% 14.63% 10.26% 11.27%S&P 1500 Composite -0.19% 4.90% 19.17% 35.04% 16.83% 17.52% 15.94% 10.68% 9.86%

Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate 0.01% 1.17% -0.77% -0.32% 5.61% 3.23% 3.12% 4.29% 4.40%Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate 0.29% 1.65% -0.12% 2.16% 7.86% 5.06% 5.00% 5.64% 5.63%Bloomberg Barclays High Yield 1.32% 1.94% 5.01% 10.82% 7.14% 6.87% 7.13% 7.38% N/ABloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate -0.43% 0.25% -2.81% -0.13% 4.49% 2.48% 1.88% 3.62% 4.39%JPM Emerging Markets USD #N/A #N/A -0.47% 3.69% 6.68% 4.14% 4.94% N/A N/A

Equi

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Cumulative1 Month 3 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 15 Years 20 Years

MSCI ACWI 0.11% 4.28% 18.20% 32.53% 52.32% 104.23% 269.13% 236.94% 398.43%MSCI USA -0.03% 5.52% 18.87% 35.13% 65.40% 132.22% 353.08% 370.79% 548.80%MSCI Europe -2.30% 0.49% 17.06% 25.57% 29.37% 58.00% 163.58% 124.88% 238.91%MSCI Asia ex. Japan 1.82% -5.43% 0.27% 14.59% 35.38% 69.52% 132.62% 230.86% 754.22%MSCI Japan 9.52% 7.06% 17.75% 32.74% 34.07% 82.34% 240.30% 77.13% 196.96%MSCI Emerging Markets 1.73% -4.24% 2.29% 16.87% 36.94% 70.73% 126.80% 215.03% 855.06%Dow Jones Industrial Average -1.88% 2.75% 14.58% 26.32% 41.88% 113.88% 282.67% 336.39% 531.48%Nasdaq Composite 2.72% 6.39% 17.28% 38.83% 95.86% 201.38% 541.38% 685.50% N/AS&P 500 Composite -0.20% 5.36% 19.26% 34.04% 62.02% 127.70% 346.16% 357.34% 534.24%S&P 500 Equal-Weighted -0.68% 2.97% 21.07% 40.27% 51.88% 105.27% 309.95% 369.69% 735.05%S&P 400 Mid-Cap -0.41% 0.88% 17.11% 43.68% 38.43% 90.47% 261.25% 347.86% 701.75%S&P 600 Small-Cap 0.72% -2.10% 19.94% 53.92% 29.42% 93.04% 291.69% 332.69% 746.63%S&P 1500 Composite -0.19% 4.90% 19.17% 35.04% 59.45% 124.19% 338.72% 357.95% 556.31%

Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate 0.01% 1.17% -0.77% -0.32% 17.79% 17.21% 36.02% 87.73% 136.53%Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate Investment Grade 0.29% 1.65% -0.12% 2.16% 25.49% 28.01% 62.88% 127.75% 198.80%Bloomberg Barclays High Yield 1.32% 1.94% 5.01% 10.82% 22.98% 39.41% 99.14% 191.15% N/ABloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate -0.43% 0.25% -2.81% -0.13% 14.10% 13.01% 20.45% 70.58% 136.34%JPM Emerging Markets USD #N/A #N/A -0.47% 3.69% 21.41% 22.49% 62.01% N/A N/A

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Page 19: Monthly Chart Pack - Favorite Fifteen

VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series19

Portsmouth, New Hampshire18 Congress Street, Suite 209

Portland, MaineOne Monument Square, Suite 601

www.vigilantcap.com

Disclosure

This document is for informational purposes only. It contains views of the Investment Policy Committee (IPC) of Vigilant Capital Management, LLC (Firm) and does not serve as advice or recommendation. The views and opinions expressed in this document are subject to change at any moment and without notice.

Any performance data quoted or expressed in graphs and commentary represent past performance and is not a guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk and you could lose all or a portion of the value of your investment portfolio. The value of your investment portfolio and your investment return will fluctuate based on changes in the value of your portfolio investments. In the future, your investment portfolio may be worth more or less. This document does not represent the investments that may or may not be held in your investment portfolio.

Please contact Vigilant Capital Management, LLC if there are any changes in your financial situation or investment objectives, or if you wish to impose, add or modify any reasonable restrictions to the management of your account.

Vigilant Capital Management, LLC completes and updates regulatory filings with the SEC as required. Please refer to the Firm’s ADV Part 1, Part 2A and Part 2B filings for important information about how the Firm manages investment portfolios, what fees may apply to investment portfolios, important Firm disclosures, and information about employees that may participate in the investment process of the Firm. These filings may be viewed at www.sec.gov and are available upon request.

Certain information ©2020 MSCI ESG Research LLC. Reproduced by permission; no further distribution. This report contains certaininformation (the “Information”) sourced from MSCI ESG Research LLC, or its affiliates or information providers (the “ESG Parties”). The information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or re-disseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for or a component of any financial instruments or products or indices. Although they obtain information from sources they consider reliable, none of the ESG Parties warrants or guarantees the originality, accuracy and/or completeness, of any data herein and expressly disclaim all express or implied warranties, including those of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose. None of the MSCI information is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such, nor should it be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance, analysis, forecast or prediction. None of the ESG Parties shall have any liability for any errors or omissions in connection with any data herein, or any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages.