monthly chart pack - favorite fifteen
TRANSCRIPT
VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series
September 20, 2021
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©FactSet Research Systems
MSCI AC World (SR) (USD) DailyHigh: 863.95 Low: 460.24 Chg: 77.00%
MSCI AC World (SR) (USD) - Price MSCI AC World (SR) (USD) - MA-50DMSCI AC World (SR) (USD) - MA-200D Recession Periods - United States
Views from the Investment Policy CommitteeMonthly Chart Pack - Favorite Fifteen
VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series
Purpose
2
• The Monthly Chart Pack – Favorite Fifteen, is a brief collection of charts and data sets that are viewed regularly by many investors, it is NOT a set of recommendations
• This selection of 15 slides are a small subset of the graphs and data points that are viewed by the Investment Policy Committee each week in assessing the status of the business cycle and the health of financial markets
• Our study of the economic environment and market conditions inform our view for tactical positioning and may influence the security selection process
• We hope that you enjoy the Monthly Chart Pack – Favorite Fifteen, and recognize that the views and opinions expressed are capturing a moment in time and are subject to change without notice
VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series
10/19 1/20 4/20 7/20 10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21
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©FactSet Research Systems
Citi Economic Surprise Index - Developed vs. Emerging DailyCiti Economic Surprise Index, Developed Markets Citi Economic Surprise Index, Emerging Markets Recession Periods - United States
Economic Activity vs. Expectations
3
Economy
The Citigroup Economic Surprise Indices are objective and quantitative measures of economic news. They are defined as weighted historical standard deviations of data surprises (actual vs. Bloomberg median). A positive reading suggests actual results are better than consensus had expected and is generally a positive catalyst for risk assets.
Trailing 2 Years
VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series
10/18 1/19 4/19 7/19 10/19 1/20 4/20 7/20 10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21
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©FactSet Research Systems
Global IHS Markit Monthly PMI Surveys DailyJP Morgan Global PMI Services - Activity Index JP Morgan Global PMI Manufacturing - Activity IndexJP Morgan Global PMI Composite - Output Index Recession Periods - United States
Global PMI Surveys
4
Economy
Trailing 3 Years
The Purchasing Managers’ Index Series are monthly economic surveys that provide an advance signal of what is happening in the real economy. They track activity variables such as output, new orders, supply times, employment and prices across key sectors.
The Series cover 30 countries and 86% of global GDP. The PMI is a diffusion index with values above 50 signaling expansion and below 50 indicating contraction. The further from 50 the faster the rate of change indicated.
The Composite (black line) accommodates the activities within the Manufacturing (blue line) and Services (orange line) sectors.
The Heat Map is conditionally formatted using the month-end data points in a rolling 20Y time series.
Date MfgAug-21 54.1Jul-21 55.4Jun-21 55.5
May-21 56.0Apr-21 55.8Mar-21 55.0Feb-21 54.0Jan-21 53.6Dec-20 53.8Nov-20 53.8Oct-20 53.1Sep-20 52.4Aug-20 51.8Jul-20 50.6Jun-20 48.0
May-20 42.4Apr-20 39.6Mar-20 47.3Feb-20 47.1Jan-20 50.3Dec-19 50.1Nov-19 50.3Oct-19 49.8Sep-19 49.7Aug-19 49.5
Srv52.956.357.559.557.054.752.851.651.852.252.952.052.050.748.135.223.736.847.152.751.951.650.951.451.8
VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21
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©FactSet Research Systems
NY Federal Reserve Weekly Economic Index DailyUSA - GDP Real Growth (YoY%) Weekly Economic Index - United States Recession Periods - United States
US Economic Activity Indicator
5
Economy
Trailing 15 Years
The Weekly Economic Index (green line) is a set of ten high frequency indicators of real economic activity, scaled to align with the four-quarter real GDP growth rate (gold line). It represents the common component of series covering consumer behavior, the labor market, and production. The NY Federal Reserve Bank designed the WEI to be a real-time indicator of activity in the US economy.
The WEI (green line) is instructive for investors in assessing the status of the economic cycle as it leads the Commerce Departments reporting of estimated real GDP growth (gold line).
The Heat Map is conditionally formatted using the month-end data points in a rolling 20Y time series.
Date WEIAug-21 8.3Jul-21 9.1Jun-21 10.0
May-21 11.2Apr-21 11.4Mar-21 2.9Feb-21 -1.9Jan-21 -1.8Dec-20 -1.9Nov-20 -2.7Oct-20 -3.8Sep-20 -5.1Aug-20 -5.5Jul-20 -7.1Jun-20 -8.2
May-20 -10.2Apr-20 -10.5Mar-20 -1.9Feb-20 1.6Jan-20 1.6Dec-19 1.5Nov-19 1.6Oct-19 1.5Sep-19 1.5Aug-19 1.6
VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series
'16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23
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©FactSet Research Systems
US Real GDP Growth - QoQ% vs YoY% Calendar QuarterlyUSA Real GDP (%q/q, SAAR) - Act/Est (Q) Real GDP, %Chg YoY - United States Recession Periods - United States
US Real GDP
6
Economy
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a macroeconomic statistic used to measure the value of goods and services produced by an economy in a specified period, adjusted for inflation. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) provides a quarterly report on GDP with headline data statistics representing annualized real GDP growth over the prior period. The report provides important detail on the components of GDP.
= Actual quarterly GDP
= Consensus estimated quarterly GDP
Trailing 5 Years
69.0%
17.7%
17.3%
4.7%
-3.9%
$0T
$2T
$4T
$6T
$8T
$10T
$12T
$14T
$16T
Components of GDP
Net Exports
Housing
Private Investment ex Housing
Government Spending
Personal Consumption
Current Quarter
VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series
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©FactSet Research Systems
ISM Monthly Purchasing Manager Surveys - Output vs New Orders MonthlyISM Manufacturing Output ISM Manufacturing, New Orders ISM Services Output ISM Services, Business ActivityRecession Periods - United States
Date MfgAug-21 59.9Jul-21 59.5Jun-21 60.6
May-21 61.2Apr-21 60.7Mar-21 64.7Feb-21 60.8Jan-21 58.7Dec-20 60.5Nov-20 57.7Oct-20 58.8Sep-20 55.7Aug-20 55.6Jul-20 53.7Jun-20 52.2
May-20 43.1Apr-20 41.7Mar-20 49.7Feb-20 50.3Jan-20 50.9Dec-19 47.8Nov-19 48.1Oct-19 48.5Sep-19 48.2Aug-19 48.8
ISM Monthly Report on Business
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Expansion
Contraction
The ISM Report on Business is based on a national survey of purchasing managers tracking changes in the Manufacturing and Services sectors. They have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing the prevailing direction and scope of change. Values above 50 signal expansion and below 50 indicate contraction. The further from 50 the faster the rate of change indicated.
The manufacturing “new orders” (light blue line) can be a good leading indicator of the manufacturing “output” (dark blue line) in the economy, and the services “business activity” (light orange line) often leads the services “output” (orange line) index.
Economy
Trailing 20 Years
Srv61.764.160.164.062.763.755.358.757.756.856.257.257.256.656.545.441.653.656.755.554.953.954.453.556.0
The Heat Map is conditionally formatted using the month-end data points in a rolling 20Y time series.
VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series
US Consumer Spending
8
Economy
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey, a random sampling of approximately 5,500 retail firms whose sales are weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over 3 million retailers in the United States. Monthly data is adjusted to accommodate seasonal variation, holidays and trading-day differences.
Retail Sales can be quite volatile from month to month (light blue, light orange), so viewing a 3-month moving average (dark blue, dark orange) may provide a better picture of consumer sentiment. Retail Sales are reported in total (orange lines) and backing out Auto (blue lines).
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©FactSet Research Systems
US Retail and Food Service Sales - Current vs 3m MA MonthlyRetail And Food Service Sales, YoY% - United States Retail And Food Service Sales, Excl. Motor Vehicle And Parts, YoY% - United StatesRetail And Food Service Sales, 3m MA - United States Retail And Food Service Sales, Excl. Motor Vehicle And Parts, 3m MA - United StatesRecession Periods - United States
Trailing 20 Years
VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series
US Employment
9
Economy
The Bureau of Labor Statistics compiles and releases the “Employment Situation” report on the first Friday of each month. The Establishment Survey provides considerable detail around the nonfarm payroll statistics that incorporate sector-specific data and cover an estimated 80% of US business. The headline number (blue bars) is an estimate of the number of new nonfarm payrolls added to the national economy over the past month. The Household Survey portion of the report is what determines the unemployment rate (gold line) that garners attention.
AVG: -163.25
10/19 1/20 4/20 7/20 10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21-25,000
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©FactSet Research Systems
US Monthly Total Nonfarm Payroll MonthlyAll Employees, Total Nonfarm Payroll, Thousands of Persons, SA - United States USA - Unemployment Rate Recession Periods - United States
Trailing 2 Years
VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series
US Housing Market
10
Economy
The Existing Home Sales report is released monthly by the National Association of Realtors based on closed residential real estate transactions. It is considered a lagging indicator because of the time lag between buyer commitment and the transaction closing. The data presents transaction volume (black line) and pricing across four regions – Northeast, South, Midwest and West.
AVG: 5247.25
'12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21
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©FactSet Research Systems
US Existing Home Sales MonthlyUSA - Existing Home Sales (000's) SAAR Recession Periods - United States
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
2.2%
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©FactSet Research Systems
US Mortgage Rates DailyNational Average - 15 Years Fixed Mortgage RateNational Average - 30 Years Fixed Mortgage Rate
Trailing 10 Years
VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series
US Monetary Policy
11
Is this the ultimate “don’t fight the Fed” moment?
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21
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$8,448,770
©FactSet Research Systems
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet MonthlyH.4.1. Assets Of All Federal Reserve Banks, Mil USD - United StatesRecession Periods - United States
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21
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©FactSet Research Systems
M2 Money Supply Growth (YoY%) MonthlyUSA - Money Supply - M2 (YoY%) Recession Periods - United States
Fixed Income
The adage “Don’t Fight the Fed” has been a longtime truth for investors. The Federal Reserve adjusts the supply and cost (interest rates) of money available to the economy within its dual mandate of promoting economic growth while maintaining price stability. The Fed has many policy tools at its disposal. The influence of monetary policy on the prices of risk assets should not be underestimated.
Trailing 20 Years Trailing 20 Years
VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series
US Treasury Yields vs. Inflation
12
Fixed Income
Investors consider US Treasury Bonds to be free of default risk, leaving interest rate risk as the primary concern. Bonds are subject to interest rate risk, since rising rates will result in falling prices and vice-versa. The longer the maturity the greater the sensitivity to changes in rates.
Interest rates respond to inflation - a bonds worst enemy. When prices in an economy rise, or are expected to rise, investors will demand a higher yield-to-maturity to compensate them for the erosion of purchasing power. This is of particular concern for longer dated bonds.
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©FactSet Research Systems
US Treasury Yields by Maturity DailyUS Govt Yield - 3 Mo US Govt Yield - 2 Yr US Govt Yield - 5 Yr US Govt Yield - 10 Yr USA - CPI Core Total (YoY%) Recession Periods - United States
= YoY % rate of inflation based on Core Consumer Price Index
Trailing 3 Years
VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series
Investment Grade Credit Spreads
13
Fixed Income
A credit spread is the difference in yield between a US Treasury Bond (risk-free) and another bond of similar maturity. Corporate bonds, even for the most stable and highly rated companies, are considered to be riskier investments for which the investor demands compensation.
Fluctuations in credit spreads are often a reflection of changing expectations around economic conditions and issuer default risk. Credit spreads can be a good barometer of economic health – widening when growth slows and narrowing when growth improves.
10/19 1/20 4/20 7/20 10/20 1/21 4/21 7/21
50bps
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27.1
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©FactSet Research Systems
US Investment Grade Credit Spreads DailyUS Aggregate Corporate Credit, Intermediate - Investment Grade (BBB) US Aggregate Corporate Credit, Intermediate - Investment Grade (AA) Recession Periods - United States
= BBB rated credit spread to US Treasury
= AA rated credit spread to US Treasury
Trailing 2 Years
VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21
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©FactSet Research Systems
S&P 500 Price vs Moving Averages DailyHigh: 4440.63 Low: 788.35 Chg: 283.64%
S&P 500 - MA-50D S&P 500 - MA-200D S&P 500 - Price Recession Periods - United States
S&P 500 Inflection Points
14
PE = 20.9xCharacteristic March 2000 October 2007 February 2020 September 2021
Index Level 1,527 1,565 3,386 4,432
P/E Ratio NTM 27.2x 15.7x 19.0x 20.9x
Dividend Yield 1.4% 1.9% 1.9% 1.3%
10Yr Treasury 6.2% 4.7% 1.6% 1.3%
PE = 13.1x
PE = 10.3x
PE = 15.7x
PE = 14.1x
PE = 19.0x
Equities
The ability for companies to navigate their way through the ebb and flow of business cycles is a key determinant in the stream of profits available to investors. Over the long-term, stocks love profits and will follow their path.
The price that investors are willing to pay to participate in the long-term stream of profits may be determined by an objective valuation process. But in the short-term, the price of stocks is frequently subject to the shifting investor sentiment between fear and greed.
Trailing 20 Years
VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22
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©FactSet Research Systems
S&P 500 DailyEPS - Act/Est EPS - NTM Recession Periods - United States
S&P 500 Earnings
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Stocks love profits. The long-term path of a stock market follows the investor expectations for higher earnings. Periods of earnings uncertainty are often met with market declines. But, as the outlook for profits improves, markets tend to look past the trough and toward the renewed earnings trajectory.
Equities
= Actual Calendar Year Earnings
= Consensus Estimated Calendar Year Earnings
= Consensus Estimated Next Twelve Months Earnings
Trailing 20 Years & 2 Years Forward
VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series
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©FactSet Research Systems
S&P 500 Valuation DailyS&P 500 - PE - NTM Recession Periods - United States
S&P 500 Valuation
16
Equities
Methods for valuing the stock market are plentiful, from using a simple Price/Earnings Ratio to employing a more complex model that contemplates future cash flows and discount rates. A wide variety of methods are used by investors everyday.
The P/E ratio is used by investors to determine the relative value of a market against its own historical record or to compare markets over time.
Trailing 20 Years
Valuation Description Latest* 20 Yr AveP/E Forward P/E 20.9x 15.7x
CAPE Shiller's P/E 38.1x 25.6x
Div Yield Dividend Yield 1.3% 1.9%
P/S Price to Sales 2.7x 1.6x
+1 standard deviation
-1 standard deviation
20Y average
VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series
Sector Dashboard
17
Equities
The Stock Market is a market of stocks that can be compartmentalized into sectors. Constituents of a sector often share a similar sensitivity to the ebbs and flows of the business cycle. Each sector has its own identity and characteristics that can be examined by investors.
55.1% 53.1%
44.6%
37.9%34.0% 33.7%
28.0% 28.0%24.7% 23.6%
15.4% 15.2%
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1 Year, Total Return
Sector Financials Materials Real Estate Industrials Discretionary Info Tech Energy Health Care Staples Communications Utilities S&P 500 Index
Sector Weight 11.1% 2.5% 2.6% 8.0% 12.2% 28.0% 2.5% 13.4% 5.8% 11.4% 2.5% 100.0%
Dividend Yield 1.7% 1.8% 2.2% 1.4% 0.5% 0.8% 4.4% 1.4% 2.6% 0.8% 3.1% 1.3%
NTM P/E 13.9x 16.1x 23.1x 21.2x 31.6x 26.0x 12.9x 17.5x 20.5x 22.1x 19.3x 20.9x
LTM P/B 1.5x 3.2x 4.3x 5.7x 11.4x 11.4x 1.6x 5.4x 6.1x 4.7x 2.2x 4.6x
NTM P/S 2.7x 2.1x 8.3x 2.1x 2.5x 6.5x 1.0x 1.9x 1.4x 3.8x 2.8x 2.7x
1Y Beta 1.04 1.06 0.68 1.03 1.15 1.15 1.05 0.83 0.67 0.94 0.59 1.00
30D RSI 47.72 41.22 49.77 41.51 56.32 50.98 48.39 49.33 51.71 54.99 44.04 49.67
NTM = Next Twelve Months estimateLTM = Last Twelve Months actual Red Shade may suggest relative warning signalRSI = Relative Strength Index Green Shade may suggest relative opportunity
VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series
Markets Scorecard
18
BONUS
Annualized1 Month 3 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 15 Years 20 Years
MSCI ACWI 0.11% 4.28% 18.20% 32.53% 15.06% 15.35% 13.95% 8.44% 8.36%MSCI USA -0.03% 5.52% 18.87% 35.13% 18.26% 18.35% 16.31% 10.88% 9.80%MSCI Europe -2.30% 0.49% 17.06% 25.57% 8.96% 9.58% 10.18% 5.55% 6.29%MSCI Asia ex. Japan 1.82% -5.43% 0.27% 14.59% 10.63% 11.13% 8.81% 8.30% 11.32%MSCI Japan 9.52% 7.06% 17.75% 32.74% 10.27% 12.77% 13.03% 3.89% 5.59%MSCI Emerging Markets 1.73% -4.24% 2.29% 16.87% 11.05% 11.29% 8.53% 7.95% 11.94%Dow Jones Industrial Average -1.88% 2.75% 14.58% 26.32% 12.37% 16.42% 14.36% 10.32% 9.65%Nasdaq Composite 2.72% 6.39% 17.28% 38.83% 25.12% 24.69% 20.42% 14.73% N/AS&P 500 Composite -0.20% 5.36% 19.26% 34.04% 17.45% 17.89% 16.13% 10.67% 9.68%S&P 500 Equal-Weighted -0.68% 2.97% 21.07% 40.27% 14.95% 15.47% 15.15% 10.86% 11.20%S&P 400 Mid-Cap -0.41% 0.88% 17.11% 43.68% 11.45% 13.75% 13.71% 10.51% 10.97%S&P 600 Small-Cap 0.72% -2.10% 19.94% 53.92% 8.98% 14.06% 14.63% 10.26% 11.27%S&P 1500 Composite -0.19% 4.90% 19.17% 35.04% 16.83% 17.52% 15.94% 10.68% 9.86%
Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate 0.01% 1.17% -0.77% -0.32% 5.61% 3.23% 3.12% 4.29% 4.40%Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate 0.29% 1.65% -0.12% 2.16% 7.86% 5.06% 5.00% 5.64% 5.63%Bloomberg Barclays High Yield 1.32% 1.94% 5.01% 10.82% 7.14% 6.87% 7.13% 7.38% N/ABloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate -0.43% 0.25% -2.81% -0.13% 4.49% 2.48% 1.88% 3.62% 4.39%JPM Emerging Markets USD #N/A #N/A -0.47% 3.69% 6.68% 4.14% 4.94% N/A N/A
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Cumulative1 Month 3 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 10 Years 15 Years 20 Years
MSCI ACWI 0.11% 4.28% 18.20% 32.53% 52.32% 104.23% 269.13% 236.94% 398.43%MSCI USA -0.03% 5.52% 18.87% 35.13% 65.40% 132.22% 353.08% 370.79% 548.80%MSCI Europe -2.30% 0.49% 17.06% 25.57% 29.37% 58.00% 163.58% 124.88% 238.91%MSCI Asia ex. Japan 1.82% -5.43% 0.27% 14.59% 35.38% 69.52% 132.62% 230.86% 754.22%MSCI Japan 9.52% 7.06% 17.75% 32.74% 34.07% 82.34% 240.30% 77.13% 196.96%MSCI Emerging Markets 1.73% -4.24% 2.29% 16.87% 36.94% 70.73% 126.80% 215.03% 855.06%Dow Jones Industrial Average -1.88% 2.75% 14.58% 26.32% 41.88% 113.88% 282.67% 336.39% 531.48%Nasdaq Composite 2.72% 6.39% 17.28% 38.83% 95.86% 201.38% 541.38% 685.50% N/AS&P 500 Composite -0.20% 5.36% 19.26% 34.04% 62.02% 127.70% 346.16% 357.34% 534.24%S&P 500 Equal-Weighted -0.68% 2.97% 21.07% 40.27% 51.88% 105.27% 309.95% 369.69% 735.05%S&P 400 Mid-Cap -0.41% 0.88% 17.11% 43.68% 38.43% 90.47% 261.25% 347.86% 701.75%S&P 600 Small-Cap 0.72% -2.10% 19.94% 53.92% 29.42% 93.04% 291.69% 332.69% 746.63%S&P 1500 Composite -0.19% 4.90% 19.17% 35.04% 59.45% 124.19% 338.72% 357.95% 556.31%
Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate 0.01% 1.17% -0.77% -0.32% 17.79% 17.21% 36.02% 87.73% 136.53%Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate Investment Grade 0.29% 1.65% -0.12% 2.16% 25.49% 28.01% 62.88% 127.75% 198.80%Bloomberg Barclays High Yield 1.32% 1.94% 5.01% 10.82% 22.98% 39.41% 99.14% 191.15% N/ABloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate -0.43% 0.25% -2.81% -0.13% 14.10% 13.01% 20.45% 70.58% 136.34%JPM Emerging Markets USD #N/A #N/A -0.47% 3.69% 21.41% 22.49% 62.01% N/A N/A
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VIGILANT Capital Management, LLC Measuring Markets Series19
Portsmouth, New Hampshire18 Congress Street, Suite 209
Portland, MaineOne Monument Square, Suite 601
www.vigilantcap.com
Disclosure
This document is for informational purposes only. It contains views of the Investment Policy Committee (IPC) of Vigilant Capital Management, LLC (Firm) and does not serve as advice or recommendation. The views and opinions expressed in this document are subject to change at any moment and without notice.
Any performance data quoted or expressed in graphs and commentary represent past performance and is not a guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk and you could lose all or a portion of the value of your investment portfolio. The value of your investment portfolio and your investment return will fluctuate based on changes in the value of your portfolio investments. In the future, your investment portfolio may be worth more or less. This document does not represent the investments that may or may not be held in your investment portfolio.
Please contact Vigilant Capital Management, LLC if there are any changes in your financial situation or investment objectives, or if you wish to impose, add or modify any reasonable restrictions to the management of your account.
Vigilant Capital Management, LLC completes and updates regulatory filings with the SEC as required. Please refer to the Firm’s ADV Part 1, Part 2A and Part 2B filings for important information about how the Firm manages investment portfolios, what fees may apply to investment portfolios, important Firm disclosures, and information about employees that may participate in the investment process of the Firm. These filings may be viewed at www.sec.gov and are available upon request.
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