monthly credit union estimates 4 monthly credit union estimates september 2019 national credit union

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  • September 2019

    MONTHLY CREDIT UNION EST IMATES

    Prepared November 1, 2019 by Credit Union National Association Economics and Statistics Department

    cuna.org/mcue

  • ii

    Monthly Credit Union Estimates September 2019

    Period YTD Growth

    YTD Interest Rate Averages

    Long-term Short-term Difference

    Loans Savings 10-yr. Treasury Federal Funds

    Rate (Long-Short)

    Sep ’19 4.8% 6.1% 2.26% 2.33% -0.07%

    Sep ’18 7.1% 4.2% 2.87% 1.70% 1.17%

    Sep ’17 7.8% 5.2% 2.32% 0.93% 1.38%

    Sep ’16 7.8% 6.1% 1.75% 0.38% 1.37%

    Sep ’15 8.0% 4.2% 2.12% 0.12% 1.99%

    Loans Credit union loans outstanding grew 0.7% in September, compared to a 0.9% increase in August. Adjustable- rate mortgages led loan growth during the month, rising 1.3%, followed by fixed-rate mortgages (1.1%), other mortgages (0.9%), used auto loans (0.8%), unsecured personal loans and new auto loans (both rising 0.4%), and credit card loans (0.2%). On the decline during the month were home equity loans (-0.02%).

    Savings Credit union savings balances declined -0.3% in September, compared to a 1.7% increase in August. One-year certificates led savings growth during the month, rising 1.1%, followed by individual retirement accounts (0.7%), and money market accounts (0.4%). On the decline during the month were share drafts (-3.5%) and regular shares (-0.3%).

    Asset quality Credit unions’ 60+ day delinquency remained at 0.6% in September.

    Liquidity The loan-to-savings ratio increased from 83.9% in August to 84.7% in September. The liquidity ratio (the ratio of surplus funds maturing in less than one year to borrowings plus other liabilities) declined from 14.9% in August to 14.1% in September.

    Memberships Total credit union memberships grew 0.1% during September to 121.6 million.

    Capital The movement’s overall capital-to-asset ratio increased from 11.1% in August to 11.3% in September. The total dollar amount of capital increased 0.9% to $176.4 billion.

  • iii

    Monthly Credit Union Estimates September 2019

    CHARTS

    Distribution of Credit Union Savings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

    Distribution of Credit Union Loans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

    Credit Union Liquidity Flows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

    Distribution of Surplus Funds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

    Credit Union Capital Ratio and Delinquency . . . . . . . . 2

    Credit Union Auto Loan and Savings Rates . . . . . . . . . . 3

    Non-revolving Loan Market Shares . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

    Savings & Consumer Credit Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

    TABLES

    National Credit Union Aggregates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

    National Credit Union Ratios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

    National Credit Union Loan Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

    National Credit Union Income and Expense Ratios . . . 8

    Credit Union & Household Savings Market Data . . . . . 9

    Credit Union & Consumer Credit Market Data . . . . . . 10

    The estimates in this report are based on information from a monthly sample of credit unions and are revised whenever more complete data are available. The estimates have been revised to reflect benchmark data as of June 2019.

    Look for the October 2019 edition of Monthly Credit Union Estimates during the last week of November.

    © Copyright 2019 by Credit Union National Association Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the prior written permission of the copyright owner.

  • 1

    Monthly Credit Union Estimates September 2019

    Distribution of credit union savings

    Distribution of credit union loans

    IRAs 6.2%

    MMAs 20.9%

    Certs 21.3%

    Share Drafts 14.7%

    Reg/Other 37.0%

    IRAs 6.4%

    MMAs 21.6%

    Certs 18.8%

    Share Drafts 14.6%

    Reg/Other 38.7%

    Sept ’19 Savings = $1,317.6 Billion Sept ’18 Savings = $1,230.4 Billion

    Sep ’19 Loans = $1,116.4 Billion Sep ’18 Loans = $1,047.9 Billion

    Other 6.2%Home Equity

    5.2% Sec Mort

    3.1%

    1st Mort Adj 11.0%

    1st Mort Fixed 30.2%

    Unsec 9.9%

    Used Auto 20.9%

    New Auto 13.4%

    Other 6.0%

    Home Equity 5.3%

    Sec Mort 3.0%

    1st Mort Adj 11.3%

    1st Mort Fixed 29.5%

    Unsec 9.8%

    Used Auto 21.1%

    New Auto 14.0%

    (1) Some credit unions sweep share draft balances weekly to reduce reserve requirements. This causes a distortion (i.e. total share draft balances appear smaller than they otherwise would be) in months ending on Friday.

  • 2

    Monthly Credit Union Estimates September 2019

    Maturity of surplus funds June 2019 vs. June 2018 (All Credit Unions) (sum of cash plus investments)

    Credit union liquidity flows Changes during the period

    Capital ratio and delinquency

    3-10 yrs 22.9%

    1-3 yrs 24.0%

    10 yrs 1.10%

    3-10 yrs 27.3%

    1-3 yrs 23.9%

    10 yrs 1.1%

    Jun ’19 Jun ’18

    0

    1

    2

    3

    delinquency rate

    Sep ’19Aug ’19Jul ’19Jun ’19May ’19Apr ’19Mar ’19Feb ’19Jan ’19Dec ’18Nov ’18Oct ’18Sep ’18

    loan delinquency as % of total loans

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    10

    11

    12

    capital/assets

    % captial ratio (excl loss allowance)

    10.8% 10.8 10.7 10.9 11.0 10.9 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.1

    11.2 11.1 11.3%

    0.67% 0.67 0.70 0.71 0.66 0.62 0.58 0.60 0.60 0.63 0.64 0.64% 0.63

    -$20

    0

    20

    40

    60

    80

    $100

    investmentssavingsloans

    from 1 year agofrom 6 months agofrom 3 months ago

    for complete data, see page 5

    -8.99

    46.65

    21.89

    -17.80

    Sept ’19

    B ill

    io ns

    o f

    d ol

    la rs

    68.52

    14.97

    $25.52

    87.28

    $24.87

    National Totals

    June 2019 Total Surplus Funds= $397.33 Billion June 2018 Total Surplus Funds= $391.98 Billion

  • 3

    Monthly Credit Union Estimates September 2019

    Credit union auto loan and savings rates

    Savings & Consumer Credit Market Share

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    savings market

    Sep ’19Aug ’19Jul ’19Jun ’19May ’19Apr ’19Mar ’19Feb ’19Jan ’19Dec ’18Nov ’18Oct ’18Sep ’18 0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    consumer creditfor complete data, see pages 9 & 10

    10.1 10.2 10.2 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.4 10.3

    11.711.611.611.611.611.711.7 11.711.811.811.7 11.7

    10.5 10.4 10.3 10.4 10.3

    savings market consumer credit

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    regular sharesone-year certificatesNew auto loan (4 yr fixed)

    Sep ’19

    Aug ’19

    Jul ’19

    Jun ’19

    May ’19

    Apr ’19

    Mar ’19

    Feb ’19

    Jan ’19

    Dec ’18

    Nov ’18

    Oct ’18

    Sep ’18

    3.59 3.67 3.95 4.09

    4.32 4.30 4.29 4.29 4.28 4.29

    0.27 0.28 0.28 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.30 0.31 0.31

    4.26

    1.63 1.71 1.79 1.89

    1.93 1.95 2.00 2.00 2.03 2.04 2.01 2.00 2.01

    3.68 3.73

    Non-Revolving loan market shares

    Other 35.8%

    Fin Co 25.2%

    Banks+ Sav Inst(2)

    25.2%

    CUs 13.9%

    Aug ’19 Non-Revolving= $3,075.1 Billion

    Other 36.3%

    Fin Co 24.9%

    Banks+ Sav Inst(2)

    24.9%

    CUs 14.0%

    Sep ’18 Non-Revolving= $2,935.4 Billion

    “other” consists of securitized loans no longer held on lenders’ balance sheets

  • 4

    Monthly Credit Union Estimates September 2019

    National Credit Union Aggregates ($ in billions)

    Borrow & Number Memberships Date Loans Surplus Funds Assets Savings Capital (1) oth. liab of CUs (millions)

    Sep 19 $1,116.4 $379.5 $1,567.2 $1,317.6 $176.4 $73.2 5,476 121.6 Latest % chg, month 0.7% -2.7% -0.1% -0.3% 0.9% 1.0% -0.2% 0.1% month % chg, yr ago 6.5% 7.0% 6.9% 7.1% 11.8% -5.9% -3.3% 3.2% % chg, YTD 4.8% 11.1% 5.9% 6.1% 9.2% -3.6% -2.3% 2.5%

    Surplus Funds Aug-19 $1,108.8 $390.1 $1,568.9 $1,321.6 $174.8 $72.5 5,488 121.4 Jul-19 $1,098.4 $375.9 $1,543.2 $1,299.8 $172.4 $71.0 5,500 121.0 Jun-19 $1,090.9 $388.5 $1,547.0 $1,302.7 $172.2 $72.1 5,534 120.7 May-19 $1,082.8 $393.6 $1,543.1 $1,304.7 $170.1 $68.3 5,548 120.3 Apr-19 $1,076.0 $382.1 $1,524.0 $1,288.1 $168.1 $67.8 5,554 120.0 Mar-19 $1,069.7 $397.3 $1,532.6 $1,295.7 $166.6 $70.3 5,561 119.7 Previous Feb-19 $1,067.4 $373.8 $1,508.7 $1,272.2 $164.3 $72.2 5,572 119.2 twelve Jan-19 $1,067.7 $343.2 $1,480.2 $1,240.9 $163.2 $76.1 5,576 118.8 months Dec-18 $1,065.2 $341.5 $1,479.6 $1,242.1 $161.5 $75.9 5,603 118.6 Nov-18 $1,060.2 $355.6 $1,483.7 $1,244.8 $159.3 $79.6 5,615 118.2 Oct-18 $1,054.5 $344.6 $1,465.0 $1,227.6 $158.2 $79.3 5,625 118.0 Sep-18 $1,047.9 $354.7 $1,465.8 $1,230.4 $157.7 $77.8 5,662 117.8

    2017 $978.4 $367.9 $1,404.0 $1,181.0 $149.9 $73.1 5,800 $113.6 2016 $889.5 $374.6 $1,317.7 $1,114.4 $139.4