monthly credit union estimates - cuna total credit union memberships grew 0.1% during april to 119.5

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  • April 2019

    MONTHLY CREDIT UNION ESTIMATES

    Prepared May 31, 2019 by Credit Union National Association Economics and Statistics Department

    cuna.org/mcue

  • ii

    Monthly Credit Union Estimates April 2019

    Period YTD Growth

    YTD Interest Rate Averages

    Long-term Short-term Difference

    Loans Savings 10-yr. Treasury Federal Funds

    Rate (Long-Short)

    Apr ’19 1.4% 3.7% 2.62% 2.41% 0.21%

    Apr ’18 2.3% 3.0% 2.79% 1.51% 1.28%

    Apr ’17 2.7% 3.8% 2.41% 0.75% 1.66%

    Apr ’16 2.4% 4.3% 1.89% 0.36% 1.53%

    Apr ’15 2.4% 3.4% 1.96% 0.11% 1.85%

    Loans Credit union loans outstanding grew 0.6% in April, compared to a 0.3% increase in March. Home equity loans led loan growth during the month, rising 2.7%, followed by other mortgage loans (1.5%), used auto loans (0.7%), adjustable-rate mortgages (0.6%), new auto loans (0.2%), and unsecured personal loans (0.1%). On the decline during the month were credit card loans (-0.9%) and fixed-rate mortgages (-0.1%).

    Savings Credit union savings balances declined -0.6% in April, compared to 1.9% increase in March. One-year certificates led savings growth, increasing 1.9%, followed by individual retirement accounts (0.6%). On the decline during the month were share drafts (-4.4%), regular shares (-0.7%), and money market accounts (-0.5%).

    Asset quality Credit unions’ 60+ day delinquency remained at 0.7% in April.

    Liquidity The loan-to-savings ratio increased from 82.8% in March to 83.8% in April. The liquidity ratio (the ratio of surplus funds maturing in less than one year to borrowings plus other liabilities) declined from 15.8% in March to 14.5% in April.

    Membership Total credit union memberships grew 0.1% during April to 119.5 million.

    Capital The movement’s overall capital-to-asset ratio increased from 10.8% in March to 11.0% in April. The total dollar amount of capital increased 0.8% to $167.8 billion.

  • iii

    Monthly Credit Union Estimates April 2019

    CHARTS

    Distribution of Credit Union Savings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

    Distribution of Credit Union Loans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

    Credit Union Liquidity Flows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

    Distribution of Surplus Funds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

    Credit Union Capital Ratio and Delinquency . . . . . . . . 2

    Credit Union Auto Loan and Savings Rates . . . . . . . . . . 3

    Non-revolving Loan Market Shares . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

    Savings & Consumer Credit Markets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

    TABLES

    National Credit Union Aggregates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

    National Credit Union Ratios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

    National Credit Union Loan Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7

    National Credit Union Income and Expense Ratios . . . 8

    Credit Union & Household Savings Market Data . . . . . 9

    Credit Union & Consumer Credit Market Data . . . . . . 10

    The estimates in this report are based on information from monthly sample of credit unions and are revised whenever more complete data is available. The estimates have been revised to reflect benchmark data as of December 2018.

    Look for the May 2019 edition of Monthly Credit Union Estimates during the last week of June.

    © Copyright 2019 by Credit Union National Association Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise without the prior written permission of the copyright owner.

  • 1

    Monthly Credit Union Estimates April 2019

    Distribution of credit union savings

    Distribution of credit union loans

    IRAs 6.2%

    MMAs 20.9%

    Certs 20.3%

    Share Drafts 15.5%

    Reg/Other 37.1%

    IRAs 6.5%

    MMAs 22%

    Certs 18.1%

    Share Drafts 14.6%

    Reg/Other 38.8%

    Apr ’19 Savings = $1,288.5 Billion Apr ’18 Savings = $1,216.6 Billion

    Apr ’19 Loans = $1,079.8 Billion Apr ’18 Loans = $1,001.3 Billion

    Other 6.0%Home Equity

    5.5% Sec Mort

    3.1%

    1st Mort Adj 11.4%

    1st Mort Fixed 29.3%

    Unsec 9.9%

    Used Auto 21.1%

    New Auto 13.9%

    Other 5.9%Home Equity

    5.4% Sec Mort

    3.0%

    1st Mort Adj 11.6%

    1st Mort Fixed 29.4%

    Unsec 9.8%

    Used Auto 21.1%

    New Auto 13.7%

    (1) Some credit unions sweep share draft balances weekly to reduce reserve requirements. This causes a distortion (i.e. total share draft balances appear smaller than they otherwise would be) in months ending on Friday.

  • 2

    Monthly Credit Union Estimates April 2019

    Maturity of surplus funds Dec 2018 vs. Dec 2017 (All Credit Unions) (sum of cash plus investments)

    Credit union liquidity flows Changes during the period

    Capital ratio and delinquency

    3-10 yrs 26.30%

    1-3 yrs 24.90%

    10 yrs 1.1%

    3-10 yrs 27.4%

    1-3 yrs 23.9%

    10 yrs 1.1%

    Dec ’18 Dec ’17

    0

    1

    2

    3

    delinquency rate

    Apr ’19Mar ’19Feb ’19Jan ’19Dec ’18Nov ’18Oct ’18Sep ’18Aug ’18Jul ’18Jun ’18May ’18Apr ’18

    loan delinquency as % of total loans

    0

    1

    2

    3

    4

    5

    6

    7

    8

    9

    10

    11

    12

    capital/assets

    % captial ratio (excl loss allowance)

    10.6 10.6 10.6 10.8 10.7 10.8 10.8 10.7 10.9 11.0 10.9 10.8 11.0%

    0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.67 0.70 0.69 0.69 0.67% 0.68% 0.71

    -10

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70

    80

    investmentssavingsloans

    from 1 year agofrom 6 months agofrom 3 months ago

    for complete data, see page 5

    32.71

    25.23

    60.94

    28.83

    Apr ’19

    B ill

    io ns

    o f

    d ol

    la rs

    78.44

    47.45

    $10.98

    71.90

    -$2.63

    National Totals

    December 2018 Total Surplus Funds= $341.53 Billion December 2017 Total Surplus Funds= $367.92 Billion

  • 3

    Monthly Credit Union Estimates April 2019

    Credit union auto loan and savings rates

    Savings & Consumer Credit Market Share

    0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    savings market

    Apr ’19Mar ’19Feb ’19Jan ’19Dec ’18Nov ’18Oct ’18Sep ’18Aug ’18Jul ’18Jun ’18May ’18Apr ’18 0

    2

    4

    6

    8

    10

    12

    consumer creditfor complete data, see pages 9 & 10

    10.2 10.2 10.3 10.1 10.2 10.1 10.2

    11.711.711.811.7 11.311.211.1

    11.8

    10.2 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.310.4

    savings market consumer credit 11.511.4 11.7 11.6

    0.0

    0.5

    1.0

    1.5

    2.0

    2.5

    3.0

    3.5

    4.0

    regular sharesone-year certificatesNew auto loan (4 yr fixed)

    Apr ’19Mar ’19Feb ’19Jan ’19Dec ’18Nov ’18Oct ’18Sep ’18Aug ’18Jul ’18Jun ’18May ’18Apr ’18

    3.44 3.48 3.53 3.59

    3.67 3.68

    1.36 1.41 1.48 1.53 1.57

    1.63 1.71 1.79 1.89

    1.93 1.95 2.00 2.00

    3.26 3.30

    3.78 3.76 3.82 3.81

    0.22 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.25 0.27

    3.73

    0.28 0.28 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.31 0.31

    Non-Revolving loan market shares

    Other 44.3%

    Fin Co 16.9%

    Banks+ Sav Inst(2)

    24.8%

    CUs 14.0%

    Mar ’19 Non-Revolving= $2,994.8 Billion

    Other 43.4%

    Fin Co 17.8%

    Banks+ Sav Inst(2)

    25.1%

    CUs 13.7%

    Apr ’18 Non-Revolving= $2,847.5 Billion

    “other” consists of securitized loans no longer held on lenders’ balance sheets

  • 4

    Monthly Credit Union Estimates April 2019

    National Credit Union Aggregates ($ in billions)

    Borrow & Number Memberships Date Loans Surplus Funds Assets Savings Capital (1) oth. liab of CUs (millions)

    Apr 19 $1,079.8 $373.4 $1,526.5 $1,288.5 $167.8 $70.2 5,567 119.5 Latest % chg, month 0.6% -4.0% -0.6% -0.6% 0.8% -4.1% -0.1% 0.1% month % chg, yr ago 7.8% -0.7% 6.3% 5.9% 10.6% 3.3% -2.6% 3.6% % chg, YTD 1.4% 9.3% 3.2% 3.7% 3.9% -7.6% -0.6% 0.8%

    Surplus Funds Mar-19 $1,073.0 $388.9 $1,535.9 $1,296.2 $166.5 $73.1 5,572 119.4 Feb-19 $1,069.5 $368.5 $1,510.8 $1,272.5 $164.3 $74.1 5,583 119.0 Jan-19 $1,068.8 $340.7 $1,481.2 $1,241.1 $163.1 $77.0 5,587 118.7 Dec-18 $1,065.2 $341.5 $1,479.6 $1,242.1 $161.5 $75.9 5,603 118.6 Nov-18 $1,060.2 $355.6 $1,483.7 $1,244.8 $159.3 $79.6 5,615 118.2 Oct-18 $1,054.5 $344.6 $1,465.0 $1,227.6 $158.2 $79.3 5,625 118.0 Previous Sep-18 $1,047.9 $354.7 $1,465.8 $1,230.4 $157.7 $77.8 5,662 117.8 twelve Aug-18 $1,039.9 $361.0 $1,462.6 $1,229.2 $157.0 $76.3 5,695 117.3 months Jul-18 $1,032.1 $351.3 $1,445.0 $1,215.8 $156.0 $73.2 5,706 116.8 Jun-18 $1,023.8 $371.9 $1,455.2 $1,229.8 $154.1 $71.4 5,708 116.4 May-18 $1,012.8 $364.5 $1,437.4 $1,216.9 $152.9 $67.6 5,716 115.9 Apr-18 $1,001.3 $376.1 $1,436.3 $1,216.6 $151.7 $67.9 5,718 115.4

    2017 $978.4 $367.9 $1,404.0 $1,181.0 $149.9 $73.1 5,800 $113.6 2016 $889.5 $374.6 $1,317.7 $1,114.4 $139.4 $63.9 6,022 109.2 2015 $804.9 $369.2 $1,227.8 $1,036.3 $130.9 $60.6 6,236 105.0 2014 $7

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