monthly market outlook october / november 2009 · 2019-09-16 · reference index ubs global conv...

October / November 2009 www.bankzweiplus.ch / marketplus

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Asset Allocation

MarketplusMonthly market outlookOctober / November 2009


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Contents

Contents

Asset Allocation Return to growth boosts risky assets 3

Funds in focus 5

Fund Selection List 6


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Asset Allocation

Return to growth boosts risky assets The cyclical upswing is increasingly reflected in real data. Most economic regions already returned to growth in 3Q09. Due to the low interest rates on short-term lendings in the interbank market, investors continue to seek higher yields in the higher-risk asset classes. While the era of above-average yields on corporate bonds is probably over, equities still offer upside poten-tial. The stabilisation of the global real estate markets as well as falling credit spreads should also help to boost real estate investments further.

Review

Rally in high-risk assetsInvestors’ risk appetite increased again in 3Q09 on the back of the mostly positive surprises in the economic data and corporate earn-ings releases. Rising demand for higher-risk assets with corre-spondingly higher return opportunities sent the prices of these as-sets ratcheting upwards. Prices of corporate bonds as well as equities have posted big gains. The only disappointment was com-modity prices, which did not advance at the same pace.

Corporate bonds and equities gain more ground

Source: Datastream, data as of 01.01.09 – 26.09.09

Macro outlook

V-shaped recoveryThe preliminary indicators paint a similar picture for all the economic regions: The easing of the global credit crunch in the wake of eco-nomic policymakers’ plucky intervention will lead to a V-shaped recovery in economic growth. While the short-term outlook is ex-tremely positive, it nonetheless raises the question of whether the upswing is sustainable. On the one hand, the reduction of global economic imbalances will dampen growth potential in the medium term. On the other hand, central banks’ extraordinary stimuli will have to be reined in to prevent any medium-term inflationary risks. The timetable and chosen means of withdrawal will determine whether the upswing will peter out only to be followed by another hard landing, or whether it will culminate in a new investment cycle. This will become an issue only in summer 2010, however. The cycli-cal upswing should last until then.

Asset allocation: Equities clearly overweight

Cash Bonds Equities Alternative

under-weighted

over-weighted

Source: Sarasin

Equity strategy

Fundamental data are positiveSince corporate earnings respond to a pick-up in economic activity after a time lag, the quarters with the greatest positive earnings surprises are still to come. We expect earnings estimates to be re-vised further upwards, which should boost the equity markets. As the cyclical sectors are expected to post the biggest earnings in-creases, we have overweighted them in our sector allocation. Be-sides the technology sector, we also favour the industry and finan-cial sectors. In terms of financials, we continue to advise a very selective approach to picking banking stocks. We see more poten-tial for insurers, which, due to their investment portfolios, stand to profit directly from the latest price advance in corporate bonds. We do not have a particular preference with respect to the regional al-location. After the strong relative performance, we have reduced the Emerging Markets’ weighting in favour of European equities, which still have clear catch-up potential. With respect to individual shares, we focus more on small and medium-sized companies, which benefit from rising risk appetite and also attract an increas-ing amount of attention as potential takeover candidates.


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Asset Allocation

USA: Earnings estimates lag ISM new orders

Source: Datastream

Bond strategy

Bonds have little potentialThe rise in real yields that normally accompanies an economic upturn should lead to higher long-term nominal interest rates in the coming months. But since inflation does not pose a danger and key interest rates are expected to remain low beyond our forecast horizon, the rise in interest rates should be fairly muted against the backdrop of a steep yield curve. Although we believe demand for corporate bonds will remain brisk after the dramatic drop in credit spreads, we see very little yield potential. With the exception of convertible bonds, investors will have little opportunity to earn money in Fixed Income before the end of the year.

Currencies

Safe havens likely to forfeit valueThe Swiss National Bank decided at its meeting in September to con-tinue its proactive exchange rate management and combat the Swiss franc’s appreciation against the euro. Hence, the distribution of CHF risks remains asymmetrical and a CHF weakening looks very likely in the coming months. Also, demand for the safe-haven Japa-nese yen is likely to decrease, and it could depreciate against the US dollar. The latter is expected to strengthen against the euro on the back of the economic recovery.

Alternative assets

Real estate is attractiveCommodity prices have posted a disappointing performance in re-cent months. However, the cyclical upswing should lead to increased demand for commodities and soon lift commodity prices again. We expect a further recovery in the prices of real estate investments that are still well below their value before the Lehman Brothers col-lapse. While real estate investments are no longer noticeably under-valued, the high dividend yields are still very attractive in a low inter-est rate environment.

Asset allocation

Good return opportunities for equities By building up equities, commodities and real estate, we have posi-tioned our portfolios over the last two quarters for an upswing. We retain our equities overweighting because until the turning point in leading indicators, stocks offer the best return opportunities. We continue to strongly underweight bonds and are gradually starting to take profits in corporate bonds. Within the Alternative Assets uni-verse, we see attractive investment opportunities in real estate in-vestments as well as in commodities.


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Funds in focus

Investment StrategyThe fund aims to provide a return by investing primarily in a diver-sified portfolio of convertible securities and warrants, globally. Convertibles offer the performance potential of equities, with the lower volatility and downside protection characteristics of bonds.

Performance (See notes on page 14)

Source: Datastream

Portfolio SplitThe Fund is ideal for those investors seeking strong out-perform-ance potential combined with lower risk.

Current Fund Data and Information

Share price 123.25

Fund size in millions (share class) 310

Domicile Luxembourg

Company & Portfolio Management JPMorgan

ISIN LU0194732953

Swiss Sec.No. 1 884 276

Currency USD

EU Tax Directive Status In scope tax

Launch date 30.08.2004

Management Fee,p.a. (%) 1.25

TER, p.a. (%) 1.65

Dividend payment date –

Payment 2008 None

Reference Index UBS Global Conv Hedged

Source: Datastream

Legal Representatives in Switzerland J.P. Morgan (Suisse) SA, 8 rue de la Confédération, P.O. Box, CH-1211 Geneva 11

Paying Agent J.P. Morgan (Suisse) SA, 8 rue de la Confédération, P.O. Box, CH-1211 Geneva 11

The prospectus and simplified prospectus are available free of charge from J.P. Morgan (Suisse) SA, 8 rue de la Confédération, P.O. Box, CH-1211 Genva 11

JPMF Global Convertibles


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Fund Selection List

Equity Funds

Switzerland

Fund/Index Currency Price YTD Perf. 3Y Perf. ann. ISIN Distribution DomicileEU Tax Directive

DWS Aktien Schweiz CHF 35.53 21.35 % n.a. DE000DWS0D27 Annual DE n.a.

SMI CHF 11.40 % –7.46 %

Switzerland Small and Mid Caps


Pictet (CH) - Swiss Mid-Small Cap P CHF 2874.59 39.42% 2.23 % CH0003299580 Annual CH OUT

SPI S&M Caps CHF 25.66% -3.81%

Germany


DWS Zürich Invest Aktien Deutschland EUR 71.74 24.50 % –0.91 % DE0008490004 Annual DE OUT

MSCI Germany EUR 8.73 % –4.34 %

Germany Small & Mid Caps


CS EF (Lux) Small & Mid Cap Germany EUR 804.67 38.81 % –5.93 % LU0052265898 None LU OUT

MSCI Germany Small Cap EUR 32.67 % –5.70 %

Europe

Fund/Index Currency Price YTD Perf. 3Y Perf. ann.. ISIN Distribution DomicileEU Tax Directive

Oyster European Opportunities EUR 236.46 23.03 % –9.06 % LU0096450555 None LU OUT

Carmignac Grande Europe EUR 116.97 22.98 % –5.56 % LU0099161993 None LU n.a.

MSCI Europe EUR 17.23 % –8.63 %

Europe Large Caps


Henderson Pan European EF EUR 13.42 15.19 % –5.05 % LU0138821268 None LU OUT

FTSE World Europe EUR 17.93 % –8.34 %

Europe Small Caps


JPMF Europe Small Cap A EUR 26.83 36.41 % –12.81 % LU0053687074 Annual LU OUT

MSCI Europe Small Companies EUR 48.40 % –10.76 %

France


Fidelity Funds – France A Euro EUR 31.90 19.84 % –5.96 % LU0048579410 Annual LU OUT

MSCI France EUR 14.91 % –7.81 %

See notes on page 14


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Fund Selection List

Italy


Fidelity Funds – Italy A Euro EUR 25.49 37.03 % –11.53 % LU0048584766 Annual LU OUT

MSCI Italy EUR 16.05 % –12.91 %

United Kingdom


Threadneedle UK Select Fund GBP 0.68 17.49 % –0.73 % GB0002771615 Semi-Ann. GB OUT

FTSE 100 GBP 12.70 % –1.57 %

USA


DWS (CH) US Equities USD 113.83 23.74 % –8.02 % CH0004459506 Irreg. CH OUT

S&P 500 Composite Index USD 14.35 % –6.28 %

USA Large Caps


Investec American Equity Fund USD 68.02 30.06 % –5.86 % LU0345774631 Semi-Ann. LU OUT

S&P 500 Composite Index USD 14.35 % –6.28 %

USA Small & Mid Caps


Schroder ISF US S&M Caps USD 121.82 25.43 % –0.85 % LU0205193047 None LU OUT

MSCI USA S&M Cap USD 24.69 % –6.34 %

Japan


Oyster Japan Opportunities Fund JPY 12 987.00 14.44 % –11.36 % LU0204987902 None LU OUT

Topix Index JPY 0.94 % –17.38 %

China


Fidelity Fund China Focus A USD 38.17 46.72 % 17.71 % LU0173614495 Annual LU OUT

MSCI Emerging Markets China USD 41.87 % 14.68 %

India


JPMF India Fund A USD 65.06 65.67 % 5.93 % LU0058908533 Annual LU OUT

MSCI Emerging Markets India USD 87.98 % 9.27 %

Latin America


Blackrock Latin American Fund USD 73.68 87.96 % 13.19 % LU0072463663 None LU OUT

MSCI EM Latin America USD 75.65 % 16.45 %



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Fund Selection List

Global Equities Emerging Markets


JPMF Emerging Markets Equity Fund USD 25.68 57.29 % 6.07 % LU0053685615 Annual LU OUT

MSCI Emerging Markets USD 58.96 % 7.18 %

Global Equities


Carmignac Investissement (A) EUR 7 333.83 34.51 % 7.63 % FR0010148981 None FR n.a.

MSCI World EUR 16.75 % –11.57 %

Bond Funds

CHF Mid / Long Term


Credit Suisse Bond Fund Dynamic CHF 111.65 15.90 % 1.49 % CH0002770201 Annual CH IN

Citigroup Swiss GBI 3–7 years CHF 3.39 % 4.17 %

CHF Inflation Linked


Credit Suisse Bond Fd Inflation Linked CHF 107.37 7.04 % 1.29 % LU0175163889 None LU IN

Citigroup Swiss GBI All Maturities CHF 2.87 % 3.57 %

CHF Convertible Bonds hedged


LODH Horizon – Convertible (CHF) P A CHF 20.57 14.36 % 1.17 % LU0437702334 None LU n.a.

n.a.

EUR Mid / Long Term


Pictet Funds Lux EUR Bonds EUR 384.74 2.80 % 1.16 % LU0128490280 None LU IN

Citigroup WGBI Europe 3–5 years EUR 5.55 % 4.85 %

EUR Corporate Bonds


Schroder ISF Euro Corporate Bond EUR 15.19 14.38 % 4.21 % LU0113257694 None LU IN

Citigroup EuroBIG Corporate EUR 13.56 % 4.67 %

EUR Inflation Linked


Credit Suisse Bond Fd Inflation Linked EUR 117.37 6.29 % 3.24 % LU0175163459 None LU IN

Citigroup WGBI Europe 3–5 years EUR 4.95 % 5.87 %



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Fund Selection List

USD Mid / Long Term


Schroder USD Bond Fund USD 17.30 7.45 % 6.47 % LU0106260564 None LU IN

Citigroup WGBI 3–5 years USD 5.54 % 10.00 %

Global Bonds


Templeton Global Total Return USD 19.82 27.54 % 13.16 % LU0170475312 None LU IN

Citigroup WGBI 3–5 years USD 5.54 % 10.00 %

Global Emerging Markets Bonds


Threadneedle EM Bond Fund USD 2.41 25.95 % 8.42 % GB0002773652 Semi-Ann. GB n.a.

JPM EMBI GLB USD 26.11 % 7.35 %

Money Market Funds

CHF


Clariden Leu (Lie) MM Fund CHF CHF 1 016.01 0.27 % n.a. LI0037728396 None LI n.a.

Citigroup 3 Months CHF CHF 0.44 % 2.00 %

EUR


Clariden Leu (Lie) MM Fund EUR EUR 1 037.93 0.87 % n.a. LI0037729428 None LI n.a.

Citigroup 3 Months EUR EUR 1.30 % 3.73 %

GBP


JPML Sterling Liquidity Fund GBP 10 339.15 0.48 % n.a. LU0161688402 None LU IN

Citigroup 3 Months GBP GBP 1.18 % 4.68 %

USD


Clariden Leu MM Fund USD USD 1 018.94 0.39 % n.a. LI0037729709 None LI n.a.

Citigroup 3 Months USD USD 0.87 % 3.69 %

Insurance Linked Investments

CHF CAT Bond


Clariden Leu (CH) Cat Bond Fund CHF CHF 129.41 3.07 % 3.97 % CH0012115249 Annual CH IN

Citigroup 3 Months CHF CHF 0.44 % 2.00 %



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Fund Selection List

EUR CAT Bond


Clariden Leu (CH) Cat Bond Fund EUR EUR 137.30 3.88 % 5.58 % CH0012115264 Annual CH IN

Citigroup 3 Months EUR EUR 1.30 % 3.73 %

Asset Allocation Funds

CHF Strategy – Conservative


Swisscanto (LU) Portfolio Fund Yield–B CHF 151.29 9.16 % –0.13 % LU0161539233 None LU OUT

CHF Strategy – Balanced


Swisscanto PF Balanced B CHF 169.93 12.94 % –2.22 % LU0161534606 None LU OUT

CHF Strategy – Growth


Swisscanto PF Growth B CHF 203.92 15.20 % –4.39 % LU0112806418 None LU OUT

EUR Strategy – Conservative


UBS (Lux) SF–Yield B EUR 2 502.82 7.32 % 0.67 % LU0033040782 None LU IN

EUR Strategy – Balanced


Swisscanto PF Balanced B EUR 94.46 10.23 % n.a. LU0236191481 None LU n.a.

EUR Strategy – Growth


Swisscanto PF Growth B EUR 93.38 12.81 % –3.61 % LU0112799613 None LU OUT

USD Strategy – Conservative


JB Strategy Conservative B USD 117.94 12.08 % 0.67 % LU0175821353 None LU IN

USD Strategy – Balanced


UBS (Lux) SF–Balanced USD B USD 2 039.45 10.57 % –0.41 % LU0049785792 None LU OUT

USD Strategy – Growth


CS Portfolio Fund Growth B USD 178.23 21.04 % –2.42 % LU0078042453 None LU OUT



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Fund Selection List

Sector Funds

Energy


Investec GSF Global Energy Fund USD 288.61 38.10 % 4.98 % LU0345779515 Semi-Ann. LU OUT

MSCI Energy USD 12.58 % 1.00 %

New Energy


Pictet Fund Lux Clean Energy USD 79.30 37.03 % n.a. LU0280430660 None LU n.a.

MSCI Energy USD 12.58 % 1.00 %

Utilities


ING Utilites Fund USD 621.25 2.03 % –3.44 % LU0119219227 None LU OUT

MSCI Utilities USD –2.15 % –0.55 %

Family Business


Kapitalfonds LK Family Business EUR 84.78 20.89 % –0.19 % LU0179106983 Annual LU n.a.

MSCI Europe EUR 17.23 % –8.63 %

Financials


CAAM Global Finance USD 10.09 30.53 % –9.60 % LU0119138732 None LU n.a.

MSCI World Financials USD 25.15 % –25.71 %

Food


LODH Nutrition Fund CHF 107.44 11.23 % –7.58 % CH0008341429 None CH IN

MSCI World Food Products CHF 6.26 % 6.28 %

Water


Pictet Funds Water P Cap EUR 113.97 10.64 % –6.61 % LU0104884860 None LU OUT

MSCI World Water Utilities EUR –19.24 % –19.22 %

Health Care Global


BGF World Health Science USD 13.74 12.07 % 1.78 % LU0122379950 None LU OUT

MSCI World Health Care USD 8.57 % –3.43 %



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Fund Selection List

Health Care Europe


Fortis Equity Health Care Europe EUR 93.15 9.19 % –6.81 % LU0119119864 None LU OUT

MSCI Europe Health Care EUR 13.69 % –6.09 %

Biotech


Pictet Funds Biotech P cap USD 285.47 1.17 % 4.08 % LU0090689299 None LU OUT

MSCI World Biotechnology USD 1.62 % 3.38 %

Technology Europe


JPMF Europe Technology Fund EUR 6.93 51.27 % –3.32 % LU0104030142 Annual LU OUT

MSCI Technology Europe EUR 12.64 % –14.94 %

Technology Global


Henderson Global Technology Fund USD 25.51 38.12 % 1.84 % LU0070992663 None LU n.a.

MSCI World Information Technology USD 40.12 % –2.58 %

Telecom Global


Fidelity Funds Global Telecom Fund EUR 5.86 5.25 % –4.00 % LU0099575291 Annual LU OUT

FTSE Global Telecom Index EUR –0.51 % –0.48 %

Telecom Europe


Fortis Equity Telecom Europe EUR 88.79 16.98 % –0.51 % LU0119122900 None LU OUT

DJ EuroStoxx Telecom Europe EUR 4.09 % 5.01 %

Mining


BGF World Mining Fund USD 55.03 67.16 % 4.34 % LU0075056555 None LU OUT

MSCI World Metals & Mining USD 45.79 % 1.32 %

Gold Mines


BGF World Gold Fund USD 44.87 34.30 % 9.77 % LU0055631609 None LU OUT

FTSE Gold Mines USD 21.45 % 8.88 %

Source: bank zweiplus ltd, Bloomberg


Contact

Patrik Kauffmann, Productmanagement, T +41 (0)58 059 27 31, [email protected]


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Abbreviations

A actual value

abs.ch absolute change

ASW asset swap spread

avg. average

bn Billion = 1 000 000 000

bp basis points

corp. corporate

CPI Consumer Price Index

Div. yield or DY dividend yield

E estimate

EBIT earnings before interest and taxes

EPS earnings per share

EV/EBITDA enterprise value to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation

EV/Sales enterprise value to sales

excl. excluding

FY financial year

GAAP Generally Accepted Accounting Principles

GDP gross domestic product

GNP gross national product

gov. government

m million

M&A Mergers & Acquisitions

mavg moving average

MV/revenues market value to revenues

N.A. not available

p.a. per annum

P/B price-to-book ratio

P/E price-to-earnings ratio

R&D Research & Development

R.H. Scale right hand scale

ROE return on equity

SAA Strategic Asset Allocation, long term strategy based on investment profiles

TAA Tactical Asset Allocation; short term strategy based on return/risk expectations

vs. versus

yoy year over year


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Imprint

Marketplus Monthly market outlook, October / November 2009 Publisher bank zweiplus ltd, Bändliweg 20, CH-8048 Zurich, [email protected] Source Bank Sarasin & Cie Ltd., Elisabethenstrasse 62, CH-4002 Basel Concept and Design Haus der Kommunikation AG, Identity & Design Subscription New subscriptions via e-mail to: [email protected] Publication dates 12 online-issues a year in German and English under www.bankzweiplus.ch / marketplus

Note regarding performances

Past performance does not guarantee future returns. The performance shown does not take account of any commissions and costs charged when subscribing and redeeming units.

Important information

This publication was compiled by bank zweiplus ltd (hereinafter referred to as “bzp”) solely for information purposes. It is not the result of financial analyses, and the “Directives on the Independence of Financial Research” of the Swiss Bankers Association therefore, do not apply to this document. This publication was prepared with publicly assessable infor-mation and data (“the information”) that are deemed to be reliable and based on the respective designated source. Nevertheless, bzp assumes no representation or warranty, ex-press or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any errors in this information constitute no basis for direct or indirect liability on the part of bzp. In particu-lar, bzp assumes no responsibility for any changes in the opinions expressed herein, plans or details about products, the relevant strategies and the economic environment, as well as market, competitive or regulatory conditions, etc. Although bzp has done everything within its power to create a reliable publication, we cannot rule out that it may contain errors or is incomplete. Neither the Bank, nor its shareholders or employees, assumes any responsibility regarding the relevance of the opinions, assessments and conclusions conveyed herein. Despite the release of this publication in connection with an existing contractual relationship, any liability on the part of bzp is limited to gross negligence or willful intent only. Furthermore, bzp accepts no liability for any immaterial inaccuracies. In such case, any liability on the part of bzp is limited to an amount that would normally be expected. bzp explicitly accepts no liability for indirect damages. This publication does not constitute an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell securities or other specific financial products. Past performance of an investment is not indicative of its future trend. The value of investments and resulting realized returns are subject to increases as well as decreases. Fur-thermore, there is no guarantee that investors will, in every case, recoup all the amounts invested. International investments harbor currency risks in addition to risks relating to the political and economic uncertainties of other countries. The products mentioned in this publication are not suitable for all recipients. We recommend obtaining detailed information regarding the respective product, as well as consulting a professional advisor, prior to making an investment. Any investment decision necessitates thorough and diligent clarifica-tion and should not be carried out solely on the basis of this document. This publication is for personal use only and may not be redistributed.

Fund Selection List: Investment/Performance

We recommend that you obtain detailed information before taking any investment decision. Investments should be made on the basis of the current prospectus. Past performance is no guarantee of future trends. The performance shown does not take in account of any commissions and costs charged when subscribing and redeeming units. This document may not be distributed to any person outside the country, where you have received it. Should a person domiciled in another jurisdiction receive this report he/she must observe any applicable sales restrictions for the herein mentioned products. © Copyright bank zweiplus ltd. All rights reserved.

monthly market outlook october / november 2009 · 2019-09-16 · reference index ubs global conv...

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