monthly indicatorslinks.mlsstratus.com/actrep/2019/limi_0419.pdf · percent to 3,984. inventory...

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April 2019 Activity Snapshot One-Year Change in One-Year Change in Closed Sales Median Sales Price 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Monthly Indicators + 3.8% + 2.5% + 4.1% One-Year Change in Current as of May 10, 2019. All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Long Island. Provided by the New York State Association of REALTORS®. Report © 2019 ShowingTime. Closed Sales Median Sales Price Average Sales Price Pending Sales Median Contract Price Average Contract Price The first quarter of 2019 provided several disruptive weather patterns that contributed to less foot traffic toward potential home sales. Coupled with low affordability, higher prices and an inventory situation in its infancy of recovering from record lows – not to mention several more days of wintry weather in April – slower sales persisted across most local residential real estate markets. However, buyers are beginning to return in force this spring. For well-priced homes in desirable locations, competition is fierce. New Listings were up 3.9 percent to 6,519. Pending Sales increased 6.1 percent to 3,984. Inventory grew 4.1 percent to 24,168 units. Prices moved higher as the Median Sales Price was up 2.5 percent to $451,067. Average Sales Price decreased 0.6 percent to $530,868. Months Supply of Inventory was up 4.3 percent to 7.3 months. Hiring and wage gains have been below expectations, and the New York unemployment rate ticked up by 0.1 percent to 4.0 percent during March 2019, which was higher than the comparative national rate of 3.8 percent. In order for sales to increase on a grand scale, buyers will need more spending power, or sellers will need to reduce prices to land where buyers are most active. Neither situation is likely to occur in 2019, and yet inventory is straining to keep pace in the most competitive price ranges. Homes for Sale Residential activity in Nassau, Queens and Suffolk counties composed of single-family homes, townhomes and co-ops combined. Percent changes are calculated using rounded figures. Activity Overview New Listings Housing Affordability Index Inventory of Homes for Sale Months Supply of Inventory

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Page 1: Monthly Indicatorslinks.mlsstratus.com/actrep/2019/LIMI_0419.pdf · percent to 3,984. Inventory grew 4.1 percent to 24,168 units. Prices moved higher as the Median Sales Price was

April 2019 Activity Snapshot

One-Year Change in One-Year Change inClosed Sales Median Sales Price

23456789

101112

Monthly Indicators

+ 3.8% + 2.5% + 4.1%One-Year Change in

Current as of May 10, 2019. All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Long Island. Provided by the New York State Association of REALTORS®. Report © 2019 ShowingTime.

Closed SalesMedian Sales PriceAverage Sales PricePending SalesMedian Contract PriceAverage Contract Price

The first quarter of 2019 provided several disruptive weather patterns that contributed to less foot traffic toward potential home sales. Coupled with low affordability, higher prices and an inventory situation in its infancy of recovering from record lows – not to mention several more days of wintry weather in April – slower sales persisted across most local residential real estate markets. However, buyers are beginning to return in force this spring. For well-priced homes in desirable locations, competition is fierce.

New Listings were up 3.9 percent to 6,519. Pending Sales increased 6.1 percent to 3,984. Inventory grew 4.1 percent to 24,168 units.

Prices moved higher as the Median Sales Price was up 2.5 percent to $451,067. Average Sales Price decreased 0.6 percent to $530,868. Months Supply of Inventory was up 4.3 percent to 7.3 months.

Hiring and wage gains have been below expectations, and the New York unemployment rate ticked up by 0.1 percent to 4.0 percent during March 2019, which was higher than the comparative national rate of 3.8 percent. In order for sales to increase on a grand scale, buyers will need more spending power, or sellers will need to reduce prices to land where buyers are most active. Neither situation is likely to occur in 2019, and yet inventory is straining to keep pace in the most competitive price ranges.

Homes for Sale

Residential activity in Nassau, Queens and Suffolk counties composed of single-family homes, townhomes and co-ops combined. Percent changes are calculated using rounded figures.

Activity OverviewNew Listings

Housing Affordability IndexInventory of Homes for SaleMonths Supply of Inventory

Page 2: Monthly Indicatorslinks.mlsstratus.com/actrep/2019/LIMI_0419.pdf · percent to 3,984. Inventory grew 4.1 percent to 24,168 units. Prices moved higher as the Median Sales Price was

Activity Overview

Key Metrics Historical Sparkbars 4-2018 4-2019 Percent Change YTD 2018 YTD 2019 Percent Change

Key metrics by report month and for year-to-date (YTD) starting from the first of the year.

New Listings 6,272 6,519 + 3.9% 22,452 + 7.5%

Closed Sales 2,611 2,710 + 3.8% 10,659 10,466 - 1.8%

20,879

+ 3.4%

Avg. Sales Price $533,942 $530,868 - 0.6% $533,111 $541,015 + 1.5%

Median Sales Price $440,000 $451,067 + 2.5% $435,000 $450,000

+ 5.2%

Median Contract Price $440,000 $453,750 + 3.1% $435,000 $450,000 + 3.4%

Pending Sales 3,756 3,984 + 6.1% 12,369 13,014

+ 1.5%

Affordability Index 93 91 - 2.2% 94 92 - 2.1%

Average Contract Price $535,228 $532,445 - 0.5% $535,000 $542,794

Current as of May 10, 2019. All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Long Island. Provided by the New York State Association of REALTORS®. Report © 2019 ShowingTime. | 2

--

Months Supply 7.0 7.3 + 4.3% -- -- --

Homes for Sale 23,219 24,168 + 4.1% -- --

4-2017 10-2017 4-2018 10-2018 4-2019

4-2017 10-2017 4-2018 10-2018 4-2019

4-2017 10-2017 4-2018 10-2018 4-2019

4-2017 10-2017 4-2018 10-2018 4-2019

4-2017 10-2017 4-2018 10-2018 4-2019

4-2017 10-2017 4-2018 10-2018 4-2019

4-2017 10-2017 4-2018 10-2018 4-2019

4-2017 10-2017 4-2018 10-2018 4-2019

4-2017 10-2017 4-2018 10-2018 4-2019

4-2017 10-2017 4-2018 10-2018 4-2019

Page 3: Monthly Indicatorslinks.mlsstratus.com/actrep/2019/LIMI_0419.pdf · percent to 3,984. Inventory grew 4.1 percent to 24,168 units. Prices moved higher as the Median Sales Price was

New Listings

Prior Year Percent Change

May 2018 6,892 6,362 +8.3%

June 2018 6,156 5,968 +3.2%

July 2018 5,804 5,413 +7.2%

August 2018 5,387 4,993 +7.9%

September 2018 5,139 4,797 +7.1%

October 2018 5,256 4,585 +14.6%

November 2018 4,133 3,813 +8.4%

December 2018 2,817 2,681 +5.1%

January 2019 5,164 4,483 +15.2%

February 2019 4,641 4,692 -1.1%

March 2019 6,128 5,432 +12.8%

April 2019 6,519 6,272 +3.9%

12-Month Avg 5,336 4,958 +7.6%

Historical New Listings by Month

Current as of May 10, 2019. All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Long Island. Provided by the New York State Association of REALTORS®. Report © 2019 ShowingTime. | 3

A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.

New Listings

5,6556,272 6,519

2017 2018 2019

April

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

1-2005 7-2005 1-2006 7-2006 1-2007 7-2007 1-2008 7-2008 1-2009 7-2009 1-2010 7-2010 1-2011 7-2011 1-2012 7-2012 1-2013 7-2013 1-2014 7-2014 1-2015 7-2015 1-2016 7-2016 1-2017 7-2017 1-2018 7-2018 1-2019

20,561 20,87922,452

2017 2018 2019

Year to Date

+ 7.5%+ 10.9% + 3.9% + 1.5%

Page 4: Monthly Indicatorslinks.mlsstratus.com/actrep/2019/LIMI_0419.pdf · percent to 3,984. Inventory grew 4.1 percent to 24,168 units. Prices moved higher as the Median Sales Price was

Closed Sales

Prior Year Percent Change

May 2018 3,109 3,146 -1.2%

June 2018 3,766 3,742 +0.6%

July 2018 3,714 3,556 +4.4%

August 2018 4,130 4,396 -6.1%

September 2018 3,205 3,507 -8.6%

October 2018 3,704 3,551 +4.3%

November 2018 3,274 3,262 +0.4%

December 2018 3,158 3,317 -4.8%

January 2019 2,793 2,911 -4.1%

February 2019 2,364 2,359 +0.2%

March 2019 2,599 2,778 -6.4%

April 2019 2,710 2,611 +3.8%

12-Month Avg 3,211 3,261 -1.5%

Historical Closed Sales by Month

Current as of May 10, 2019. All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Long Island. Provided by the New York State Association of REALTORS®. Report © 2019 ShowingTime. | 4

A count of the actual sales that closed in a given month.

Closed Sales

2,509 2,611 2,710

2017 2018 2019

April

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

1-2005 7-2005 1-2006 7-2006 1-2007 7-2007 1-2008 7-2008 1-2009 7-2009 1-2010 7-2010 1-2011 7-2011 1-2012 7-2012 1-2013 7-2013 1-2014 7-2014 1-2015 7-2015 1-2016 7-2016 1-2017 7-2017 1-2018 7-2018 1-2019

10,703 10,659 10,466

2017 2018 2019

Year to Date

- 1.8%+ 4.1% + 3.8% - 0.4%

Page 5: Monthly Indicatorslinks.mlsstratus.com/actrep/2019/LIMI_0419.pdf · percent to 3,984. Inventory grew 4.1 percent to 24,168 units. Prices moved higher as the Median Sales Price was

Median Sales Price

Prior Year Percent Change

May 2018 $447,000 $414,350 +7.9%

June 2018 $455,000 $441,500 +3.1%

July 2018 $475,000 $449,000 +5.8%

August 2018 $481,500 $445,000 +8.2%

September 2018 $458,000 $430,000 +6.5%

October 2018 $464,500 $440,000 +5.6%

November 2018 $455,000 $433,000 +5.1%

December 2018 $451,254 $436,000 +3.5%

January 2019 $450,000 $435,000 +3.4%

February 2019 $450,000 $426,250 +5.6%

March 2019 $450,000 $437,000 +3.0%

April 2019 $451,067 $440,000 +2.5%

12-Month Avg $460,000 $435,000 +5.7%

Historical Median Sales Price by Month

Current as of May 10, 2019. All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Long Island. Provided by the New York State Association of REALTORS®. Report © 2019 ShowingTime. | 5

Point at which half of the sales sold for more and half sold for less, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.

Median Sales Price

* Median Sales Price for all properties from May 2018 through April 2019. This is not the average of the individual figures above.

$415,000$440,000 $451,067

2017 2018 2019

April

$325,000

$350,000

$375,000

$400,000

$425,000

$450,000

$475,000

$500,000

1-2005 7-2005 1-2006 7-2006 1-2007 7-2007 1-2008 7-2008 1-2009 7-2009 1-2010 7-2010 1-2011 7-2011 1-2012 7-2012 1-2013 7-2013 1-2014 7-2014 1-2015 7-2015 1-2016 7-2016 1-2017 7-2017 1-2018 7-2018 1-2019

$410,000$435,000 $450,000

2017 2018 2019

Year to Date

+ 3.4%+ 6.0% + 2.5% + 6.1%

Page 6: Monthly Indicatorslinks.mlsstratus.com/actrep/2019/LIMI_0419.pdf · percent to 3,984. Inventory grew 4.1 percent to 24,168 units. Prices moved higher as the Median Sales Price was

Average Sales Price

Prior Year Percent Change

May 2018 $544,312 $511,462 +6.4%

June 2018 $544,458 $538,931 +1.0%

July 2018 $575,883 $548,147 +5.1%

August 2018 $580,195 $545,037 +6.5%

September 2018 $557,232 $529,507 +5.2%

October 2018 $548,083 $532,969 +2.8%

November 2018 $542,724 $521,426 +4.1%

December 2018 $555,721 $531,759 +4.5%

January 2019 $550,940 $531,202 +3.7%

February 2019 $532,078 $524,334 +1.5%

March 2019 $549,073 $541,777 +1.3%

April 2019 $530,868 $533,942 -0.6%

12-Month Avg* $552,559 $533,211 +3.6%

Historical Average Sales Price by Month

Current as of May 10, 2019. All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Long Island. Provided by the New York State Association of REALTORS®. Report © 2019 ShowingTime. | 6

Average sales price for all closed sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.

Avg. Sales Price

* Average Avg. Sales Price of all properties from May 2018 through April 2019. This is not the average of the individual figures above.

$498,335$533,942 $530,868

2017 2018 2019

April

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000

$600,000

$650,000

1-2005 7-2005 1-2006 7-2006 1-2007 7-2007 1-2008 7-2008 1-2009 7-2009 1-2010 7-2010 1-2011 7-2011 1-2012 7-2012 1-2013 7-2013 1-2014 7-2014 1-2015 7-2015 1-2016 7-2016 1-2017 7-2017 1-2018 7-2018 1-2019

$496,841$533,111 $541,015

2017 2018 2019

Year to Date

+ 1.5%+ 7.1% - 0.6% + 7.3%

Page 7: Monthly Indicatorslinks.mlsstratus.com/actrep/2019/LIMI_0419.pdf · percent to 3,984. Inventory grew 4.1 percent to 24,168 units. Prices moved higher as the Median Sales Price was

Pending Sales

Prior Year Percent Change

May 2018 4,040 4,170 -3.1%

June 2018 3,798 3,952 -3.9%

July 2018 3,436 3,480 -1.3%

August 2018 3,755 3,759 -0.1%

September 2018 2,970 3,177 -6.5%

October 2018 3,465 3,353 +3.3%

November 2018 2,895 3,009 -3.8%

December 2018 2,450 2,466 -0.6%

January 2019 2,594 2,399 +8.1%

February 2019 2,862 2,782 +2.9%

March 2019 3,574 3,432 +4.1%

April 2019 3,984 3,756 +6.1%

12-Month Med* 3,319 3,311 +0.2%

Historical Pending Sales by Month

Current as of May 10, 2019. All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Long Island. Provided by the New York State Association of REALTORS®. Report © 2019 ShowingTime. | 7

A count of the properties on which offers have been accepted in a given month.

Pending Sales

3,4863,756

3,984

2017 2018 2019

April

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

1-2005 7-2005 1-2006 7-2006 1-2007 7-2007 1-2008 7-2008 1-2009 7-2009 1-2010 7-2010 1-2011 7-2011 1-2012 7-2012 1-2013 7-2013 1-2014 7-2014 1-2015 7-2015 1-2016 7-2016 1-2017 7-2017 1-2018 7-2018 1-2019

12,159 12,36913,014

2017 2018 2019

Year to Date

+ 5.2%+ 7.7% + 6.1% + 1.7%

Page 8: Monthly Indicatorslinks.mlsstratus.com/actrep/2019/LIMI_0419.pdf · percent to 3,984. Inventory grew 4.1 percent to 24,168 units. Prices moved higher as the Median Sales Price was

Median Contract Price

Prior Year Percent Change

May 2018 $447,500 $415,000 +7.8%

June 2018 $455,000 $444,498 +2.4%

July 2018 $475,000 $449,000 +5.8%

August 2018 $484,000 $445,000 +8.8%

September 2018 $459,450 $433,750 +5.9%

October 2018 $465,000 $440,000 +5.7%

November 2018 $455,000 $435,000 +4.6%

December 2018 $452,000 $439,000 +3.0%

January 2019 $450,000 $435,000 +3.4%

February 2019 $450,000 $429,000 +4.9%

March 2019 $454,500 $438,000 +3.8%

April 2019 $453,750 $440,000 +3.1%

12-Month Avg* $460,000 $437,500 +5.1%

Historical Median Contract Price by Month

Current as of May 10, 2019. All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Long Island. Provided by the New York State Association of REALTORS®. Report © 2019 ShowingTime. | 8

Point at which half of the contracts were signed for more and half were signed for less, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.

Median Contract Price

* Median Contract Price of all properties from May 2018 through April 2019. This is not the average of the individual figures above.

$415,000$440,000 $453,750

2017 2018 2019

April

$325,000

$350,000

$375,000

$400,000

$425,000

$450,000

$475,000

$500,000

1-2005 7-2005 1-2006 7-2006 1-2007 7-2007 1-2008 7-2008 1-2009 7-2009 1-2010 7-2010 1-2011 7-2011 1-2012 7-2012 1-2013 7-2013 1-2014 7-2014 1-2015 7-2015 1-2016 7-2016 1-2017 7-2017 1-2018 7-2018 1-2019

$410,000$435,000 $450,000

2017 2018 2019

Year to Date

+ 3.4%+ 6.0% + 3.1% + 6.1%

Page 9: Monthly Indicatorslinks.mlsstratus.com/actrep/2019/LIMI_0419.pdf · percent to 3,984. Inventory grew 4.1 percent to 24,168 units. Prices moved higher as the Median Sales Price was

Average Contract Price

Prior Year Percent Change

May 2018 $545,915 $515,065 +6.0%

June 2018 $546,342 $540,690 +1.0%

July 2018 $577,150 $549,750 +5.0%

August 2018 $581,726 $546,948 +6.4%

September 2018 $558,861 $531,406 +5.2%

October 2018 $551,110 $535,267 +3.0%

November 2018 $544,692 $522,832 +4.2%

December 2018 $557,741 $534,084 +4.4%

January 2019 $552,228 $533,095 +3.6%

February 2019 $533,368 $526,910 +1.2%

March 2019 $552,034 $543,644 +1.5%

April 2019 $532,445 $535,228 -0.5%

12-Month Avg* $554,401 $535,236 +3.6%

Historical Average Contract Price by Month

Current as of May 10, 2019. All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Long Island. Provided by the New York State Association of REALTORS®. Report © 2019 ShowingTime. | 9

Average contract price for all pending sales, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.

Average Contract Price

* Average Average Contract Price for all properties from May 2018 through April 2019. This is not the average of the individual figures above.

$500,770$535,228 $532,445

2017 2018 2019

April

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000

$600,000

1-2005 7-2005 1-2006 7-2006 1-2007 7-2007 1-2008 7-2008 1-2009 7-2009 1-2010 7-2010 1-2011 7-2011 1-2012 7-2012 1-2013 7-2013 1-2014 7-2014 1-2015 7-2015 1-2016 7-2016 1-2017 7-2017 1-2018 7-2018 1-2019

$498,683$535,000 $542,794

2017 2018 2019

Year to Date

+ 1.5%+ 6.9% - 0.5% + 7.3%

Page 10: Monthly Indicatorslinks.mlsstratus.com/actrep/2019/LIMI_0419.pdf · percent to 3,984. Inventory grew 4.1 percent to 24,168 units. Prices moved higher as the Median Sales Price was

Housing Affordability Index

Prior Year Percent Change

May 2018 91 105 -13.3%

June 2018 90 98 -8.2%

July 2018 86 97 -11.3%

August 2018 85 99 -14.1%

September 2018 90 102 -11.8%

October 2018 80 98 -18.4%

November 2018 84 101 -16.8%

December 2018 91 99 -8.1%

January 2019 92 96 -4.2%

February 2019 92 98 -6.1%

March 2019 92 95 -3.2%

April 2019 91 93 -2.2%

12-Month Avg 89 98 -9.9%

Historical Housing Affordability Index by Month

Current as of May 10, 2019. All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Long Island. Provided by the New York State Association of REALTORS®. Report © 2019 ShowingTime. | 10

This index measures housing affordability for the region. For example, an index of 120 means the median household income is 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.

Affordability Index

10493 91

2017 2018 2019

April

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

1-2005 7-2005 1-2006 7-2006 1-2007 7-2007 1-2008 7-2008 1-2009 7-2009 1-2010 7-2010 1-2011 7-2011 1-2012 7-2012 1-2013 7-2013 1-2014 7-2014 1-2015 7-2015 1-2016 7-2016 1-2017 7-2017 1-2018 7-2018 1-2019

10594 92

2017 2018 2019

Year to Date

- 2.1%- 10.6% - 2.2% - 10.5%

Page 11: Monthly Indicatorslinks.mlsstratus.com/actrep/2019/LIMI_0419.pdf · percent to 3,984. Inventory grew 4.1 percent to 24,168 units. Prices moved higher as the Median Sales Price was

Inventory of Homes for Sale

Prior Year Percent Change

May 2018 24,473 23,549 +3.9%

June 2018 25,020 24,167 +3.5%

July 2018 25,619 24,638 +4.0%

August 2018 25,231 24,295 +3.9%

September 2018 25,393 24,205 +4.9%

October 2018 24,921 23,685 +5.2%

November 2018 24,061 22,773 +5.7%

December 2018 21,812 20,766 +5.0%

January 2019 22,557 21,319 +5.8%

February 2019 22,747 21,867 +4.0%

March 2019 23,493 22,316 +5.3%

April 2019 24,168 23,219 +4.1%

12-Month Avg 24,125 23,067 +4.6%

Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale by Month

Current as of May 10, 2019. All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Long Island. Provided by the New York State Association of REALTORS®. Report © 2019 ShowingTime. | 11

The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.

Homes for Sale

22,771 23,219 24,168

2017 2018 2019

April

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1-2005 7-2005 1-2006 7-2006 1-2007 7-2007 1-2008 7-2008 1-2009 7-2009 1-2010 7-2010 1-2011 7-2011 1-2012 7-2012 1-2013 7-2013 1-2014 7-2014 1-2015 7-2015 1-2016 7-2016 1-2017 7-2017 1-2018 7-2018 1-2019

+ 2.0% + 4.1%

Page 12: Monthly Indicatorslinks.mlsstratus.com/actrep/2019/LIMI_0419.pdf · percent to 3,984. Inventory grew 4.1 percent to 24,168 units. Prices moved higher as the Median Sales Price was

Months Supply of Inventory

Prior Year Percent Change

May 2018 7.4 7.2 +2.8%

June 2018 7.6 7.4 +2.7%

July 2018 7.8 7.5 +4.0%

August 2018 7.7 7.4 +4.1%

September 2018 7.8 7.4 +5.4%

October 2018 7.6 7.2 +5.6%

November 2018 7.4 6.9 +7.2%

December 2018 6.7 6.3 +6.3%

January 2019 6.9 6.5 +6.2%

February 2019 6.9 6.6 +4.5%

March 2019 7.1 6.8 +4.4%

April 2019 7.3 7.0 +4.3%

12-Month Avg 7.3 7.0 +4.3%

Historical Months Supply of Inventory by Month

Current as of May 10, 2019. All data from the Multiple Listing Service of Long Island. Provided by the New York State Association of REALTORS®. Report © 2019 ShowingTime. | 12

The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly pending sales from the last 12 months.

Months Supply

7.0 7.0 7.3

2017 2018 2019

April

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

1-2005 7-2005 1-2006 7-2006 1-2007 7-2007 1-2008 7-2008 1-2009 7-2009 1-2010 7-2010 1-2011 7-2011 1-2012 7-2012 1-2013 7-2013 1-2014 7-2014 1-2015 7-2015 1-2016 7-2016 1-2017 7-2017 1-2018 7-2018 1-2019

0.0% + 4.3%