monthly us lamb market update · 2020-07-30 · prepared by: steiner consulting group 800.526.4612...

June 2020

Prepared by: Steiner Consulting Group 800.526.4612

USA Domes c Lamb Market - Supply/Demand Situa on

Closing of Mountain States Rosen plant in Colorado throws lamb mar-ket in disarray. While not exactly a surprise, the recent announcement that the MSR plant will stop processing lambs and be converted to a beef processing facility has caused significant uncertainty in the US lamb market. The MSR plant was purchased from JBS in 2015 and it was op-erated by a coop of lamb producers based in the US state of Wyoming. The company went into bankruptcy protec on this spring as the collapse in foodservice demand pushed it over the financial cliff. The bankruptcy court accepted a bid from JBS to purchase the plant and media reports now note that lamb slaughter and processing opera ons will cease at the end of July. The decision is a difficult one for US lamb producers that now wonder where they will get lambs processed. Some have called on US government officials, most recently Vice President Pence, to intervene through the Department of Jus ce and stop the sale to JBS. MSR processed about 360,000 head last year although full capacity is projected as high as 700,000 head per year. Some of the lost capacity may be offset by a new slaughter plant that is coming online shortly. The new plant in Brush, Colorado could have a capacity of about 1,800 per day or about 450,000 per year. But the plant is not opened yet and US sources are not sure how many lambs they will buy from non inves-tors. Also, the new facility will process only carcasses, which will then be shipped to further processors that will fabricate them into retail and foodservice cuts. The facility is expected to run well below rated capaci-ty un l next spring, hence the uncertainty/urgency on the part of pro-ducers that produced a crop this spring and need to get those lambs to market. Feedlots con nue to limit placements/inventories amid COVID uncer-tainty. Feedlot inventories usually bo om out in July and August but then increase sharply in the fall as producers move spring lambs into feedlots and get them ready for the year end holidays and eventually for Easter. Feedlot inventories have been lower for much of this year as feedlots remain wary about demand in the second half of the year. The total inventory on feed in Colorado feedlots was es mated at just 65,543 head on July 1, 12% lower than a year ago and 17% lower than the five year average. Lamb backs up in freezers as demand takes a hit. The most recent USDA cold storage report noted that the supply of lamb in freezers at the end of June was es mated at 46,524 million pounds, 16.2% higher than a year ago and 29% higher than the five year average. This is only the supply in public or semi-private cold storage facili es. There are anec-dotal reports that some large processors also own a significant amount of inventory in their own warehouses, especially inventory of full car-casses, racks and other middle cuts.

Monthly US Lamb Market Update July 2020 Issue

Prepared Exclusively for Meat & Livestock Australia - Sydney

July 30, 2020

COLORADO LAMBS ON FEED. '000 headMonthly Data Reported by the Livestock Market Information Center

50

100

150

200

250

300

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Avg. 2014-18 2019 2020

LAMB AND MUTTON, COLD STORAGE STOCKS, THOUSAND POUNDS, END OF MONTH INVENTORIES

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

THOUSANDPOUNDS LAMB AND MUTTON, COLD STORAGE STOCKS

2015-19 Avg. 2019 2020

Top 10 States for Lamb/Sheep Slaughter in JuneSource: USDA. Analys is by Steiner Consulting

2019 2020head head % ch.

1 Colorado 54,000 54,000 0.0%2 California 24,300 28,500 17.3%3 Texas 14,800 18,100 22.3%4 New Jersey 13,700 15,300 11.7%5 Pennsylvania 6,000 8,400 40.0%6 Indiana 4,200 6,300 50.0%7 Ohio 4,100 6,300 53.7%8 Oregon 3,700 4,500 21.6%9 Illinois 4,600 4,400 -4.3%10 New York 3,900 4,200 7.7%

Other 42,100 43,400 3.1%

Total 175,400 193,400 10.3%

June 2020


Imported Lamb Supply and Price Trends

Lamb imports con nued to dri lower in July, with imports from New Zealand pos ng big declines. Weekly import data con nues to show a slowdown in product coming from Austral-ia and New Zealand. Weekly imports in the four weeks ending July 18 averaged 1,218 MT/week, 25% lower than a year ago. Imports from New Zealand during this period were an average of 270 MT/wk, down 50% from the same four week period a year ago. Imports from Australia at an average of 927 MT/week were 14% lower than the same period last week. Im-ports from other markets remain limited although we have noted some product coming from Chile and Mexico in the last two weeks. For the week ending July 18 imports from Chile were 34 MT, the highest import week since mid May while imports from Mexico were 28 MT. Imports from Australia should start to improve, however as June exports to the US market showed a notable improvement. According to MAFF data, Australian lamb exports to the US last month were 4,525 MT, 651 MT or 17% higher than the previous year. Exports to the West Coast were up 32% from a year ago. Australian ex-ports to the US increased even as total Australian lamb imports for the month were down 4% from a year ago. Mu on and goat imports also down in late June and July. Imports for both products have slowdown down significantly. Most mu on imports are coming from Australia and USDA not-ed a sharp decline in recent weeks. Weekly imports for the four weeks ending July 18 averaged 82 MT/wk, down 74% from the same four week period a year ago. Goat imports were also sharply lower. Total imports of goat meat for the four week reference period were an average of 94 MT per week, down 65% compared to a year ago. Imports from Australia averaged 93 MT per week down 57% while imports from New Zealand and Mexico remain minimal. Prices for imported retail cuts remain firm but racks and other middles struggle. The table on page 6 offers a complete sum-mary of prices for fresh/frozen imported lamb cuts. A few highlights: • Prices for racks remain well below year ago levels. Fresh

Australian racks are down as much as 30% from a year ago. On the other hand, the price of shoulders is up 22% from last year and the price of semi boneless fresh legs is up 18% from last year.

• Frozen racks are also down between 27% and 30% from a year ago. Frozen leg prices are up 7% compared to last year and frozen square cut Australian shoulder prices are up 6%.

USA Monthly Lamb Market Update

Australian Lamb Racks, Fresh, Cap-off, 28 oz/up. 4-WK Moving Avg.Weekly Prices. Source: USDA

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2017 2018 2019 2020

Weekly Lamb Imports from Australia. Data in Metric Ton, Product Wt. Basis.Source: USDA-AMS

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500


2018 2019 2020

Summary of Australian Lamb Exports: Jan - JunSource: MAFF

Jan-Jun '19 Jan-Jun '20 MT ch. % ch.

China 34,560 35,181 621 2%Japan 5,633 5,336 (297) -5%South Korea 6,743 6,628 (115) -2%

Qatar 9,453 8,822 (631) -7%Dubai 9,428 7,618 (1,809) -19%Jordan 4,903 4,306 (597) -12%

USA East 22,883 20,649 (2,234) -10%USA West 9,504 9,052 (452) -5%USA Total 32,387 29,701 (2,686) -8%

Malaysia 4,938 3,995 (944) -19%Papua New Guinea 6,622 4,049 (2,573) -39%

Other 36,019 26,912 (9,108) -25%

Total Aus 150,687 132,546 (18,141) -12%

June 2020



US Domestic Lamb Cut and Primal ValuesWeekly Prices from USDA. Wt. Average

6/26/2020 6/19/2020 w/w 6/28/2019 y/yUS$/cwt US$/cwt % ch. US$/cwt % ch.

Foresaddle 204 Rack, 8-Rib, Medium 799.7 822.3 -2.8% 875.7 -8.7%

209 Breast 284.6 283.4 0.4% 218.7 30.1%

207 Shoulders, Square Cut 329.1 338.4 -2.8% 307.3 7.1%

210 Foreshank 417.2 421.0 -0.9% 427.4 -2.4%

Neck 177.2 188.2 -5.8% 171.4 3.4%

Foresaddle Value 433.7 440.0 -1.4% 429.1 1.1%

Hindsaddle 232 Loin, Trimmed, 4x4 569.1 573.4 -0.8% 523.9 8.6%

232E Flank, Untrimmed 201.3 197.3 2.0% 133.6 50.6%

233A Leg, Trotter Off 364.4 377.9 -3.6% 384.7 -5.3%

Hindsaddle Value 373.5 385.5 -3.1% 400.9 -6.8%

Carcass Value 404.2 413.3 -2.2% 392.5 3.0%

Hindsaddle, Foresaddle and Total Lamb Cutout ValueSource: USDA Mandatory Price Reporting System

250

300

350

400

450

500

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Foresaddle Value

Hindsaddle Value

Lamb Cutout

June 2020



Domestic Lamb Cutout Value, USASource: Agricultural Marketin Service, USDA. $ per 100 lb. Dressed Carcass

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 5-Yr Avg. % ch. vs. Yr Ago

% ch. vs. 5-Yr Avg.

Jan 377.17 358.74 348.34 368.85 383.43 417.78 367.31 9.0% 13.7%

Feb 366.93 351.23 338.77 370.47 386.61 423.08 362.80 9.4% 16.6%

Mar 369.36 347.15 332.97 369.88 382.21 429.97 360.31 12.5% 19.3%

Apr 364.78 344.57 355.50 373.25 380.42 430.76 363.70 13.2% 18.4%

May 361.36 342.63 400.16 377.43 389.48 417.20 374.21 7.1% 11.5%

Jun 355.17 341.06 425.44 382.01 391.81 379.10

Jul 357.71 343.29 428.96 381.66 397.03 381.73

Aug 356.28 355.42 421.48 375.87 393.39 380.49

Sep 359.34 356.77 414.16 378.23 396.62 381.02

Oct 359.34 354.23 395.31 379.26 398.15 377.26

Nov 360.56 354.47 386.74 379.39 407.49 377.73

Dec 361.26 353.66 388.59 383.36 397.78 376.93

USA Domestic Lamb Cutout ValueMonthly Avg. Price; Source: USDA

340

350

360

370

380

390

400

410

420

430

440


5-Yr Avg. 2019 2020

Note: Monthly Cutout Value Calculated Using Weekly Data

June 2020



Slaughter Lamb Price, Sioux Falls, SD BasisMonthly Average Prices, 100-150 lb. Wooled and Shorn, Choice & Prime 2-3 . $ per 100 lb.

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 5-Yr. Avg. % ch. vs. Yr Ago.

% ch. vs. 5-Yr Avg.

Jan 143.3 138.5 141.7 142.1 135.8 157.2 143.1 15.7% 9.8%

Feb 144.5 139.9 144.6 154.1 142.6 170.6 149.4 19.6% 14.2%

Mar 141.8 135.5 158.1 153.6 150.4 161.9 150.2 7.7% 7.8%

Apr 143.4 143.0 177.9 156.0 162.2 107.8 148.4 -33.5% -27.3%

May 156.6 156.7 209.9 161.6 165.4 127.1 162.9 -23.1% -22.0%

Jun 167.5 164.0 200.6 166.6 157.4 171.2

Jul 158.9 168.7 177.7 146.3 152.0 160.7

Aug 157.7 166.0 156.3 132.4 151.5 152.8

Sep 159.4 161.3 144.0 129.3 147.9 148.4

Oct 157.7 140.3 134.3 130.4 148.4 142.2

Nov 138.7 131.5 131.4 129.1 150.3 136.2

Dec 129.1 134.3 126.8 133.0 151.7 135.0Source: USDA

Slaughter Lamb Price, Sioux Falls, SD BasisMonthly Average Prices, 100-150 lb. Wooled and Shorn, Choice & Prime 2-3 . $ per 100 lb.

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180


5-Yr. Avg. 2019 2020

June 2020



Imported Lamb Price SummarySource: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service, Mandatory Price Reporting

2019 Volume

2019 Wt. Avg. $

2019 Implied Value Jul 29, 2019 Jul 20, 2020 Jul 27, 2020

% ch. vs. two wk Ago

% ch. vs. Year Ago

Fresh/ChilledPounds $/lb. Total $

AUS Shortloin, 1-Rib, 0x0 8,528,127 4.95$ 42,199,023$ 4.64$ 4.90$ 5.13$ 4.5% 10.6%

AUS Shoulder, Square-cut 4,481,193 3.02$ 13,543,443$ 2.87$ 3.23$ 3.51$ 8.4% 22.0%

AUS Rack, FR, Cap-off, 24-28 oz 797,608 11.95$ 9,532,114$ 11.75$ 8.83$ 8.25$ -6.6% -29.8%

AUS Rack, FR, Cap-off, 28 oz/up 785,560 12.07$ 9,478,315$ 11.87$ 10.74$ 9.74$ -9.3% -17.9%

AUS Shortloin, 1-Rib, 1x1 740,994 4.26$ 3,153,708$ 4.20$ 4.58$ 4.48$ -2.3% 6.6%

AUS Leg, semi bnls 574,293 3.71$ 2,133,410$ 3.64$ 3.84$ 4.31$ 12.3% 18.5%


AUS Foreshank, VP 135,199 3.03$ 410,129$ 3.17$ 3.25$ 3.65$ 12.3% 15.3%

Subtotal 16,350,190 5.14$ 84,100,651$ 4.91$ 4.92$ 5.04$ 2.6% 2.6%

Frozen

AUS Leg, Long 8,370,493 2.39$ 20,019,990$ 3.52$ 3.82$ 3.77$ -1.5% 7.2%

AUS Foreshank, LP 3,790,731 2.39$ 9,066,419$ 2.72$ 2.75$ 2.75$ 0.1% 1.2%

AUS Shoulder, Square-cut 2,513,670 2.39$ 6,012,029$ 2.60$ 2.65$ 2.63$ -0.5% 1.3%

AUS Leg, bnls 1,743,261 2.39$ 4,169,416$ 3.88$ 3.85$ 3.88$ 0.8% 0.2%

AUS Hindshank, LP 1,174,944 2.39$ 2,810,153$ 2.60$ 2.77$ 2.84$ 2.4% 9.2%

AUS Shoulder, Square-cut, bnls 944,929 2.39$ 2,260,019$ 3.72$ 3.81$ 3.95$ 3.7% 6.1%

AUS Rack, FR, Cap-off, 20-24 oz 862,556 2.39$ 2,063,004$ 11.01$ 7.63$ 7.70$ 0.9% -30.0%


AUS Rack, FR, Cap-off, 28 oz/up 671,365 2.39$ 1,605,726$ 10.59$ 9.05$ 10.00$ 10.5% -5.6%

AUS Hindshank, VP 40,426 2.39$ 96,688$ 3.43$ -$ -$

NZ Rack, FR, Cap-off, 16-20 oz 3,524,701 2.39$ 8,430,146$ 11.71$ 10.80$ 10.46$ -3.2% -10.6%

NZ Rack, FR, Cap-off, 12-16 oz 1,665,018 2.39$ 3,982,280$ 12.03$ 10.93$ 10.81$ -1.1% -10.1%

NZ Rack, FR, Cap-off, 20 oz/up 1,107,888 2.39$ 2,649,773$ 12.01$ 8.44$ 9.12$ 8.1% -24.0%

NZ Rack, FR, Cap-off, 12 oz/dn 86,283 2.39$ 206,366$ 12.52$ -$ -$

Subtotal 27,203,004 2.39$ 65,062,342$ 5.86$ 5.40$ 5.37$ -0.5% -8.3%

Please note that the prices, volume and sales value reported above represents only subset of total US lamb imports. It only reflects the data reported through the Mandatory Price Repor ng System. It is only for nego ated sales, no formula sales. Trade from smaller importers and traders is not included in the summary above. Data that does not meet the confiden ality guidelines also is not included in the above table.

June 2020



Lamb & Sheep Slaughter. Monthly. '000 Head

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 5-Yr Avg.% ch Yr

Ago% ch

5-Yr Avg.

Jan 167.0 160.8 177.4 180.6 187.2 182.2 174.6 -2.7% 4.4%Feb 164.0 176.1 159.4 164.3 168.7 164.3 166.5 -2.6% -1.3%Mar 205.2 206.5 196.3 201.5 190.4 187.5 200.0 -1.5% -6.2%Apr 199.3 189.8 179.7 181.5 235.7 180.8 197.2 -23.3% -8.3%May 169.4 185.7 180.8 201.8 210.0 195.3 189.5 -7.0% 3.0%Jun 194.9 195.9 187.7 180.6 175.4 193.4 186.9 10.3% 3.5%Jul 188.0 170.2 166.9 180.0 188.6 178.7Aug 175.2 193.4 194.6 205.4 202.9 194.3Sep 192.9 194.0 176.4 172.2 179.3 183.0Oct 185.9 181.6 183.5 199.9 205.5 191.3Nov 181.4 186.9 187.4 195.3 181.0 186.4Dec 200.4 197.0 188.1 201.8 196.5 196.8

Source: USDA

Lamb & Sheep Slaughter. Monthly. '000 HeadMonthly Data. Source: USDA

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

240


5-Yr Avg. 2019 2020

June 2020

Prepared by: Steiner Consulting Group 800.526.4612 Source: USDA


Lamb Yearling Dressed Weights. Monthly. Avg. Pounds per Carcass

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 5-Yr Avg.% ch Yr

Ago% ch

5-Yr Avg.

Jan 72.00 71.00 71.00 73.00 69.00 67.00 70.50 -2.9% -5.0%Feb 72.00 73.00 72.00 74.00 69.00 68.00 71.33 -1.4% -4.7%Mar 71.00 70.00 72.00 72.00 71.00 68.00 70.67 -4.2% -3.8%Apr 71.00 70.00 67.00 71.00 67.00 64.00 68.33 -4.5% -6.3%May 72.00 72.00 67.00 70.00 66.00 68.00 69.17 3.0% -1.7%Jun 71.00 69.00 68.00 71.00 68.00 68.00 69.17 0.0% -1.7%Jul 71.00 69.00 68.00 70.00 66.00 68.80Aug 69.00 66.00 67.00 68.00 65.00 67.00Sep 66.00 64.00 66.00 69.00 63.00 65.60Oct 66.00 65.00 66.00 67.00 64.00 65.60Nov 67.00 67.00 68.00 68.00 64.00 66.80Dec 67.00 68.00 69.00 67.00 63.00 66.80

Source: USDA

Lamb Yearling Dressed Weights. Monthly. Avg. Pounds per CarcassMonthly Data. Source: USDA

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

71

72


5-Yr Avg. 2019 2020

June 2020



Lamb Yearling Production. Monthly. Carcass Wt. Basis. Million Lb.

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 5-Yr Avg.% ch Yr

Ago% ch

5-Yr Avg.

Jan 11.00 10.30 11.40 11.70 11.40 10.90 11.12 -4.4% -1.9%Feb 10.80 11.60 10.40 10.80 10.10 9.70 10.57 -4.0% -8.2%Mar 13.50 13.20 12.70 13.30 12.10 11.30 12.68 -6.6% -10.9%Apr 12.80 11.80 10.40 11.50 13.70 9.90 11.68 -27.7% -15.3%May 11.10 12.00 10.50 12.50 12.10 11.30 11.58 -6.6% -2.4%Jun 12.30 12.10 11.30 11.20 10.30 11.30 11.42 9.7% -1.0%Jul 11.80 10.50 9.90 11.00 10.70 10.78Aug 10.60 11.50 11.60 11.90 11.10 11.34Sep 11.00 10.90 10.10 10.10 9.70 10.36Oct 10.90 10.70 10.90 11.90 11.50 11.18Nov 10.90 11.30 11.40 11.80 10.20 11.12Dec 12.30 12.10 11.80 11.90 11.00 11.82

Source: USDA

Lamb Yearling Production. Monthly. Carcass Wt. Basis. Million Lb.Monthly Data. Source: USDA

9

10

11

12

13

14


5-Yr Avg. 2019 2020

June 2020



Quantity of US Imports of Fr/Frz Mutton, Goat, Lamb: World TotalSource: USDA/FAS. Units: Metric Ton. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting (800.526.4612)

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

5-Yr Avg 2018 2019 2020

Y/Y Ch. in May. 20 vs. May. 19 US Mutton, Goat, Lamb ImportsSource: USDA/FAS Units: Metric Tons

-701

-91

-43

0

0

1

352

-483

-800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600

New Zealand(*)

Mexico

Chile

Iceland

Other

Canada

Australia(*)

World Total

-5%Change in total imports:

June 2020



Y/Y Ch. in May. 20 vs. May 19 US Mutton, Goat, Lamb Import Value ($)Source: USDA/FAS Units: US Dollars

-11,939,059

-10,191,322

-654,653

-284,134

0

0

22,366

-23,046,802

-25,000,000 -20,000,000 -15,000,000 -10,000,000 -5,000,000 0 5,000,000

New Zealand(*)

Australia(*)

Mexico

Chile

Iceland

Other

Canada

World Total

Change in total importvalue:-24%

$ Value of US Imports of Fr/Frz Mutton, Goat, Lamb: World TotalSource: USDA/FAS. Units: US Dollars. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting (800.526.4612)

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

140,000,000

2018 2019 2020 5-Yr Avg

June 2020



Quantity of US Imports of Fr/Frz Mutton, Goat, Lamb: New Zealand(*)Source: USDA/FAS. Units: Metric Ton. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting (800.526.4612)

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

2018 2019 2020 5-Yr Avg

TOP US LAMB IMPORT MARKETS IN 2020 TOP US LAMB IMPORT MARKETS IN 2019Total Volume and Country Shares for Period Jan - May 2020, MT Total Volume and Country Shares for Period Jan - May 2019, MT

New Zealand

22%

Australia77%

Other1%

Metric Tons

New Zealand

15%

Australia84%

Other1%

59K70KMetric Tons

Quantity of US Imports of Fr/Frz Mutton, Goat, Lamb: Australia(*)Source: USDA/FAS. Units: Metric Ton. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting (800.526.4612)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

2018 2019 2020 5-Yr Avg

$ Value of US Imports of Fr/Frz Mutton, Goat, Lamb: Australia(*)Source: USDA/FAS. Units: US Dollars. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting (800.526.4612)

-

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

2018 2019 2020 5-Yr Avg

$ Value of US Imports of Fr/Frz Mutton, Goat, Lamb: New Zealand(*)Source: USDA/FAS. Units: US Dollars. Analysis by: Steiner Consulting (800.526.4612)

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

2018 2019 2020 5-Yr Avg

June 2020



1942: 56,213

1960: 33,170

1990: 11,358

2012: 5,375

2020: 5,200 0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

JANUARY 1 US SHEEP & LAMB INVENTORYSource: USDA 000 HEAD

Lamb and Sheep Inventory According to the 2017 Census of Agriculture Source: USDA-NASS

June 2020



June 2020



0

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Domestic Lamb Production + Importsmil lb.

US domestic production

Imports

monthly us lamb market update · 2020-07-30 · prepared by: steiner consulting group 800.526.4612...

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